Scottie Scheffler aims for a historic three-peat at the Players Championship but I’m looking elsewhere for value.
The latest: Unsurprisingly, Scheffler is the favourite at TPC Sawgrass with Rory McIlroy right behind. But two players who have won already this season — Ludvig Aberg and Hidkei Matsuyama — have my attention alongside two long shots.
Check out my Players Championship predictions for the PGA Tour tournament beginning on March 13.
Players Championship predictions
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Best bet: Aberg to win (+1,400) & top-20 finish (+110)
I picked Aberg to win the Genesis Invitational back in February and he came through, beating out Maverick McNealy by one stroke at Torrey Pines.
This is a very different golf course in many respects but there are a few consistencies worth noting, courtesy of DataGolf:
- Strong driving is pivotal: TPC Sawgrass is the sixth-most difficult course in strokes gained: off-the-tee in the PGA Tour’s current rotation, while Torrey Pines ranks 15th.
- Penalties are always looming. Players average the 12th-most penalty strokes per round at TPC Sawgrass (0.73). In this year’s Genesis Invitational, players averaged 1.07 penalties per round.
Aberg hits it far and straight off-the-tee and will be able to club down on many holes, giving himself more opportunities to keep the ball in play.
If you take out two tournaments where Aberg was sick with the flu, his recent form is stellar: T22, Win, T5, Sixth, T17.
I also want to tap into a trend around the early-late draws, since 14 of the last 16 winners have had AM/PM tee times during the week.
Aberg falls into that category, while big names like Scheffler, McIlroy and Xander Schauffele are all slated to play in the PM/AM slot. Is that a definitive trend? No, but it also shouldn’t be ignored.
Key stat: Aberg made his Players Championship debut last year and finished T8.
Quick picks
Matsuyama to win (+2,200): Matsuyama has three top-eight finishes in his last four starts at the Players Championship and was leading this event after the opening round in 2020 before it was called off due to COVID-19.
Japan’s best male golfer started this year with a win at the Sentry and has turned in a handful of solid finishes since. I’m hoping a familiar venue can get him back into top gear.
Overall, Matsuyama has won three times with 13 top-20 finishes in his last 25 starts.
Berger to win (+5,000): I’ve picked Berger to win plenty of times this year and he hasn’t come through … yet.
But he has cashed a number of top finishes for me and is in a great spot to do so again.
The American was runner-up at the WM Phoenix Open and finished 12th (Genesis Invitational) and T15 (Arnold Palmer Invitational) in his next two signature-event starts.
Berger is consistently gaining off-the-tee and has a strong approach game. That’ll play here; he finished T9 and T13 in his last two starts at TPC Sawgrass.
Zalatoris to win (+6,600): I’m praying Will Zalatoris can figure out his putter this week, because he is hitting the cover off the golf ball.
The 28-year-old has gained strokes tee-to-green in six straight starts, finishing 26th or better five times.
Luckily for us, strong putting isn’t heavily correlated to success here. Zalatoris will still have to be much better with the flat stick than he’s been in recent weeks, though.
Zalatoris has a habit of turning up at big events, with seven top-10 finishes in 14 major starts. This isn’t a major, but it’s pretty darn close and he’s trending in the right direction.
Golf picks made at 2:10 p.m. on 03/11/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.