Category: NBA

The surging Memphis Grizzlies visit the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors have been profitable as home underdogs, but they welcome a buzzsaw in the Grizzlies, who I expect to win by a few possessions. To round out the +310 SGP, I am backing Toronto native Zach Edey to have a big game, while fading Gradey Dick.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 5.

Grizzlies vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Grizzlies -5.5 | Edey over 18.5 points/rebounds | Dicks under 2.5 threes (+310)

Grizzlies -5.5 (-210): The Raptors have flourished at home this season, but the Grizzlies present a bad matchup.

It’s worth noting that centre Jakob Poeltl left Tuesday’s game against the New York Knicks due to a right hip pointer issue. That’s not an injury any player can recover from overnight.

Without the big man, the Raps could get destroyed on the boards — an area the Grizzlies have exploited before.

The first matchup on Boxing Day saw Memphis explode for 155 points against an under-sized Raptors squad.

Led by a menacing front court of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey, the Grizzlies are near the top in several big-man stats.

• 2nd in offensive rebounds (13.1 per game)
• 3rd in defensive rebounds (31.2 per game)
• 2nd in points in paint (57.6 per game)
• 2nd in second-chance points (16.9 per game)

Memphis is 9-1 SU over its last 10 games, with the lone defeat against the Knicks. Plus, the side is 7-3 ATS during that stretch.

With the Raptors entering the second game of a back-to-back and likely missing a few key players, I am not optimistic about their chances tonight.

Other SGP legs

Edey over 18.5 points/rebounds (-109): It wasn’t long since Edey posted a career-high 16 rebounds against the Raptors.

Standing at an imposing 7-foot-4, the rookie centre is evolving into one of the league’s better rim protectors.

Edey has eclipsed this mark in five of his past six games, highlighted by a stellar performance against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.

The hometown boy will be eager to ball out in front of family and friends, and he’s got a favourable matchup to do it tonight.

Centres like Karl-Anthony Towns, Ivica Zubac, and Nikola Vucevic have put up big numbers against the Raptors in recent games.

Dick under 2.5 threes (-165): While he’s had flashes of brilliance, Dick hasn’t been letting it fly from distance recently.

Dick has failed to exceed this mark in each of his last 10 games, attempting 4.7 3s per game in that stretch.

I don’t expect that streak to snap against the Grizzlies, who are ranked sixth at defending the three-point shot (35.1%).

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. on 02/05/25.

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The Sacramento Kings, who are trying to figure out life without De’Aaron Fox, host a struggling Orlando Magic squad tonight at Golden 1 Center.

The pregame narrative: Orlando hasn’t won a road game since Jan. 6, and I don’t expect that to change tonight. My +450 SGP includes a Kings moneyline pick, as well as prop bets on Malik Monk, Domantas Sabonis and Franz Wagner.

Check out my Magic vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 5.

Magic vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Kings ML | Monk 6+ assists | Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds | Wagner 20+ points (+450)

Kings moneyline (-210): I’m not in love with the Kings’ long-term outlook after trading away Fox, but I do think they can kick a Magic squad that is utterly down and out.

Orlando’s past 10 games have been a total disaster:

• 1-9 SU
• 1-9 ATS
• 0-7 on the road
• -16.5 net rating (30th in the NBA)
• 45.5 eFG% (30th in the NBA)

This six-game road swing cannot end soon enough for the Magic, who have to play again in Denver tomorrow night. Yikes.

Sacramento just got back from its own six-game road trip, which concluded with an underdog victory in Minnesota.

The Kings have won seven straight home games, and they should be able to light the beam tonight.

SGP legs

Monk 6+ assists (-235): Even when Fox was playing for the Kings, this was an attainable assist total for Monk. He’s averaging 5.9 assists this season.

Now that Fox is gone, Monk should assume an even greater role as a facilitator. He’s already cashing this bet on nearly a nightly basis.

• 6+ assists in 15/17 games since Dec. 28
• 7.5 APG since Dec. 28

Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Monk has led the Kings in potential assists per game (12.2), which accounts for all passes that lead directly to a shot.

If he keeps that up, only half of those potential assists have to convert for this to hit.

Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds (-108): Sabonis is a beast on the glass, I can’t deny that. And he’ll probably secure his third consecutive rebounding title this year.

But when the matchup isn’t right, I’m still going to fade him at a line this high.

Orlando allows the fewest rebounds per game to opposing centres (12.8), per Betting Pros. Part of that is because the team plays at the second-slowest pace in the NBA.

But the Magic also have the 10th-best rebounding rate (50.4%), so it’s not just about their slower style of play.

Sabonis averages 14.3 rebounds and has gone under this total in four of his past five.

Wagner 20+ points (-530): If a leg with this much juice is throwing you off, feel free to skip it. The SGP will come in priced at +325 sans-Franz, but I want Wagner involved to get this thing to +450.

Why?

Because Wagner has 20-plus points in 15 straight games — and 26 of 31 on the season.

His shooting has been atrocious lately, and that hasn’t mattered. His floor is sky-high because the Magic rely on him to shoot a ton.

Wagner is shooting 27.8% from deep (on 7.2 attempts/game) during this 15-game run of 20-point performances. Imagine what’ll happen if he turns that around.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 02/05/2025

De’Aaron Fox, the San Antonio Spurs’ newest star, is set to make his debut tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got a plus-money play on Fox, as well as an under on Nikola Jokic and an over on Walker Kessler.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 5.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Fox over 6.5 assists (+105)

Who else is excited to see some pick-and-roll magic between Fox and Victor Wembanyama tonight?

That was a staple in the Sacramento Kings’ offence with Fox and Domantas Sabonis, and I imagine it’ll be an even sweeter connection for Fox and Wemby. Even if their chemistry doesn’t click immediately, the Spurs’ new point guard now has a 7-foot-4 target to heave to.

Taking the over on 6.5 assists is usually a slight reach for Fox, who averages 6.1 APG. But keep in mind that he played on a Kings squad in which Sabonis (6.5 APG) and Malik Monk (5.9) were both similarly active passers.

Now he comes to a San Antonio squad that has Chris Paul and … not a lot of other facilitators.

Paul (8.2 APG) is the only Spur averaging four-plus assists this year. And he’s listed as questionable on the injury report with with a finger injury.

Fox should see big minutes immediately for the Spurs regardless, and I’m excited to see how he runs this offence. But if Paul is out, I’ll feel particularly good about this play.

Key stat: The Hawks, who Fox is facing tonight, allow the fourth-most assists per game.

Quick picks

Jokic under 27.5 points (-110): Jokic is averaging 29.5 PPG and has a plus matchup against the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans tonight. So why am I fading him against what should be an attainable number?

The main reason is the emerging trend of the big man’s reduced involvement as a scorer. Something shifted a few weeks ago:

• Pre-Jan. 12 (32 games): 31.6 PPG, 21.7 FGA, 30.1% usage rate

• Jan. 12 onward (12 games): 24.0 PPG, 14.2 FGA, 23.8% usage rate

Could it be that Jokic is trying to pace himself over a long season? Is he ceding more opportunities to Aaron Gordon, who returned in mid-January after multiple injury absences?

Perhaps it’s some combination of both. Regardless, for as efficient as Jokic is, I don’t trust him to shoot enough to hit this over.

Jokic has gone under 27.5 points in eight of his past 12 games, and he’s landed on exactly 28 points twice.

Kessler over 11.5 rebounds (-115): The Utah Jazz are a strong rebounding squad overall, and Kessler is the frontman for the operation.

• The 7-foot centre averages 11.5 rebounds (8th in the NBA).

• He’s hauled in 12+ rebounds in 11/17 games since Dec. 23, averaging 12.8 RPG in that span.

The Warriors can counter with a 7-footer of their own, but it’s the inexperienced Quinten Post, a two-way player with 11 NBA games under his belt.

Beyond that, Kessler has a height advantage of at least three inches over the rest of the Warriors’ roster.

Given their lack of size, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Warriors are a plus matchup for bigs. They allow the fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres (16.2), per Betting Pros.

Kessler had nine boards in 20 minutes against the Warriors in October. He routinely plays 30-plus minutes these days, though, so I expect more.

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 02/05/2025.

The New York Knicks play the second game of a back-to-back when they visit the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Knicks haven’t fared well on a rest disadvantage, so I am playing the surging Raptors on the alt-spread. To round out the +325 SGP, I have player props on Karl-Anthony Towns and Immanuel Quickley.

Check out my Knicks vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 4.

Knicks vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Raptors +8.5 | Towns over 23.5 points | Quickley 2+ threes (+325)

Raptors +8.5 (-240): Toronto dropped all three matchups to the Knicks this season, but several factors have me leaning toward them tonight.

• Raptors are 16-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

• They are 6-1 SU in their last seven games.

• Toronto is second in defensive rating (105.6) over the last three weeks.

The Raps are playing their best basketball now that Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Quickley are reunited on the court.

This a tough spot for the Knicks, whose starters averaged 37.8 minutes in the comeback victory over the Houston Rockets (124-118) last night.

New York are 1-5 ATS on no rest, largely due to their lack of bench depth, which will be further tested if O.G. Anunoby (foot sprain) doesn’t play.

Other SGP legs

Towns over 23.5 points (-117): Towns is going through a mid-season slump, but he has feasted on the Raptors this season.

The five-time All-Star exceeded the 23.5-point mark in all three games vs. Toronto.

Although the Raps have made notable strides with their perimeter defence, KAT’s seven-foot frame and shooting range pose a daunting challenge for any team.

Big men like Nikola Vucevic and Ivica Zubac have had success against them in recent games.

This is a good time to buy low on the Knicks all-star.

Quickley 2+ threes (-167): Quickley will be determined to ball out against his former team.

Since joining the Raps, he has cashed this prop in both games played against the Knicks. In addition, Quickley drained two-plus threes in five of his last eight games, averaging 6.2 attempts during that stretch.

The Knicks, meanwhile, are rock-bottom at defending the three-point shot (37.8%) and could be without their best defender in Anunoby.

Quickley has struggled to stay on the court this season, but when healthy, the 25-year-old point guard has proven to be a consistent scoring threat.

Picks made at 11:14 a.m. on 02/04/25.

It’s an all-L.A. showdown on Tuesday at Intuit Dome, where the Clippers host the Lakers.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers made a trade of seismic proportions over the weekend, and that’s a key reason why I’m backing Ivica Zubac and LeBron James on the prop market tonight. I also expect the Clippers to win by at least a handful of points.

Check out my Lakers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 4.

Lakers vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers -5.5 | Zubac over 26.5 points/rebounds | LeBron 25+ points (+360)

Clippers -5.5 (-200): For the first time in decades, the Clippers have a legitimate home-court advantage.

After playing second-fiddle to the Lakers at Crypto.com Arena (formerly Staples Center), the Clips have moved to greener pastures at Intuit Dome.

It’s only 40 minutes down the road, but it makes a world of difference.

Inside their new venue, the Clips are 17-8 with a +8.0 net rating. Their 18-7 ATS record at home is the best in the NBA.

Just over two weeks ago, the Clippers hosted the Lakers for the first time at Intuit Dome, and the hosts came away with a 116-102 win.

The Clips’ average margin of victory at home this year is +7.8 points.

SGP legs

Zubac over 26.5 points/rebounds (-130): If you’ve paid attention to any NBA murmurs, you know that Anthony Davis is no longer a Laker. That makes Zubac a really, really compelling piece of tonight’s matchup.

In fairness, Zubac has already shown he can feast against the Lakers with AD on the court.

In their Jan. 19 matchup, Zubac had 21 points and 19 rebounds, marking his third time cashing this bet in the past four all-L.A. matchups.

But now, with AD’s rim protection and rebounding prowess out the door, Zubac looks even more promising.

In his past 13 games, Zubac has averaged 16.1 points and 13.4 rebounds.

LeBron 25+ points (-177): With AD gone and Luka Doncic not yet ready for his Laker debut, LeBron should have the green light to be L.A.’s primary scoring option.

• In five games without Davis this year, LeBron has averaged 32.6 PPG and cashed this bet four times.

• LeBron has 25+ points in 13/25 games since Dec. 1.

In January, LeBron scored 25 points on the nose against the Clippers. He now has cashed this bet in seven straight games against them.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 02/04/2025