De’Aaron Fox, the San Antonio Spurs’ newest star, is set to make his debut tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.
The pregame narrative: I’ve got a plus-money play on Fox, as well as an under on Nikola Jokic and an over on Walker Kessler.
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Best bet: Fox over 6.5 assists (+105)
Who else is excited to see some pick-and-roll magic between Fox and Victor Wembanyama tonight?
That was a staple in the Sacramento Kings’ offence with Fox and Domantas Sabonis, and I imagine it’ll be an even sweeter connection for Fox and Wemby. Even if their chemistry doesn’t click immediately, the Spurs’ new point guard now has a 7-foot-4 target to heave to.
Taking the over on 6.5 assists is usually a slight reach for Fox, who averages 6.1 APG. But keep in mind that he played on a Kings squad in which Sabonis (6.5 APG) and Malik Monk (5.9) were both similarly active passers.
Now he comes to a San Antonio squad that has Chris Paul and … not a lot of other facilitators.
Paul (8.2 APG) is the only Spur averaging four-plus assists this year. And he’s listed as questionable on the injury report with with a finger injury.
Fox should see big minutes immediately for the Spurs regardless, and I’m excited to see how he runs this offence. But if Paul is out, I’ll feel particularly good about this play.
Key stat: The Hawks, who Fox is facing tonight, allow the fourth-most assists per game.
Quick picks
Jokic under 27.5 points (-120): Jokic is averaging 29.5 PPG and has a plus matchup against the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans tonight. So why am I fading him against what should be an attainable number?
The main reason is the emerging trend of the big man’s reduced involvement as a scorer. Something shifted a few weeks ago:
- Pre-Jan. 12 (32 games): 31.6 PPG, 21.7 FGA, 30.1% usage rate
- Jan. 12 onward (12 games): 24.0 PPG, 14.2 FGA, 23.8% usage rate
Could it be that Jokic is trying to pace himself over a long season? Is he ceding more opportunities to Aaron Gordon, who returned in mid-January after multiple injury absences?
Perhaps it’s some combination of both. Regardless, for as efficient as Jokic is, I don’t trust him to shoot enough to hit this over.
Jokic has gone under 27.5 points in eight of his past 12 games, and he’s landed on exactly 28 points twice.
Kessler over 11.5 rebounds (-106): The Utah Jazz are a strong rebounding squad overall, and Kessler is the frontman for the operation.
- The 7-foot centre averages 11.5 rebounds (8th in the NBA).
- He’s hauled in 12+ rebounds in 11/17 games since Dec. 23, averaging 12.8 RPG in that span.
The Warriors can counter with a 7-footer of their own, but it’s the inexperienced Quinten Post, a two-way player with 11 NBA games under his belt.
Beyond that, Kessler has a height advantage of at least three inches over the rest of the Warriors’ roster.
Given their lack of size, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Warriors are a plus matchup for bigs. They allow the fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres (16.2), per Betting Pros.
Kessler had nine boards in 20 minutes against the Warriors in October. He routinely plays 30-plus minutes these days, though, so I expect more.
Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 02/05/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.