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Best NBA prop bets Feb. 7: Back Tyler Herro, Joel Embiid on Friday

Tyler Herro and Joel Embiid headline Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Herro is the man on the Miami Heat these days, and I expect him to let it fly from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Embiid should pick up where he left off filling the basket and Chris Paul has value as a passer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 7.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Herro 4+ threes (-121)

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With Jimmy Butler out of the picture, it’s officially Herro’s team in South Beach.

That’s mostly semantics, though, because basketball fans know the sixth-year guard has been the guy all season. Herro is having his best year as a scorer, posting career-highs in several key metrics:

PPG: 23.9
3PA: 9.7
3PM: 3.8

He’s shooting with frequency and accuracy from beyond the arc and draws a solid matchup on Friday against the Brooklyn Nets.

Brooklyn allows the third-highest opponent 3-point percentage (37.6%) and is tied for allowing the 15th-most 3s per game (13.5).

Herro has cleared this mark in three of his last five games and attempted double-digit 3s in four of those contests.

He fell just shy of this line against the Nets on Jan. 25 when he went 3-for-6 from deep. I’m hoping to see a slight uptick in volume this evening.

Key stat: Herro has 4+ threes in 25 of 48 games (52.1%) this year.

Quick picks

Embiid over 28.5 points (-122): Maybe all the blockbuster trades spooked Embiid, or maybe he’s finally healthy. Either way, the big man is back in Philadelphia’s lineup — seemingly without a minutes restriction — and I want in.

Embiid returned from a month-long hiatus on Tuesday against the Dallas Mavericks and dropped 29 points in 36 minutes.

He shot 12-of-23 from the field and left some points on the table by going 4-of-9 from the charity stripe.

This should be a cinch if we get that type of run and volume from Embiid tonight.

Embiid averaged 33+ points in each of the previous two seasons.
He’s scored 27+ points in 8/10 games this season when playing over 30 minutes (6-4 vs. this line).

The Detroit Pistons, Friday’s opponent, give up the ninth-most PPG to opposing centres.

Paul over 6.5 assists (-129): This line seems way too low. Sure, De’Aaron Fox is on the San Antonio Spurs now, but it looks like Paul is still running point.

The veteran played 30 minutes on Wednesday with Fox in the lineup and logged nine helpers against the Atlanta Hawks.

He’s gone over this line in eight straight games and 37 of 48 games on the season.

If anything, Fox is just another elite scorer for Paul to feed.

Picks made at 8:57 a.m. ET on 02/07/2025.

Pacers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 6: Ride with James Harden, fade Myles Turner in +340 SGP

Thursday’s nightcap features James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers against the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Harden on an assists milestone tonight as part of a +340 SGP. This three-leg ticket also includes an alt under and a fade on Myles Turner.

Check out my Pacers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 6.

Pacers vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Under 230.5 points | Harden 8+ assists | Turner under 6.5 rebounds (+340)

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Under 230.5 points (-139): The Clippers have been among the most defensively responsible squads all season. But the Pacers have recently taken up that mantle, too.

Since Jan. 1, the Clippers and Pacers rank 2nd and 4th, respectively, in defensive rating.

L.A. is 1st in opponent points per game in that span, too, while Indiana ranks 8th.

Unders are 4-0 in the Pacers’ past four road games. Only one of those matchups even crested a 220-point total.

As for the Clippers, unders are 10-6 when they’re home favourites this season, per Team Rankings. And seven of their past eight games at Intuit Dome went under this total.

SGP legs

Harden 8+ assists (-305): From an odds standpoint, this is the safest leg of the SGP. And it’s easy to see why.

Harden is averaging 8.4 assists this season. He’s averaged 9.7 APG over his past five seasons.

He has 8+ assists in 12/15 games since Jan. 1, averaging 9.7 assists in that span.

The two-time assists leader has a decent matchup tonight despite the Pacers’ recent defensive improvements.

Indiana allows the ninth-most assists per game to opposing point guards, per Team Rankings.

Turner under 6.5 rebounds (-132): You’d think that a 6-foot-11 centre would clear a rebounding total like this with ease, but that often isn’t the case for Turner.

In his past eight games, Turner has gone under 6.5 rebounds six times. He’s also hit the under in 11 of his past 16.

With that in mind, I view Turner as fade-worthy against this number whenever a particularly tough matchup comes along. And that’s exactly what we have here.

The Clippers rank seventh in rebounding rate (51.2%), and they allow the fifth-fewest rebounds to centres.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 02/06/2025

Rockets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Feb. 6: Bet on Brooks, T-Wolves on the alt-spread

The Houston Rockets, on a four-game losing skid, face the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at the Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is gradually climbing up the Western Conference standings, and I like its chances to make things competitive against a struggling Rockets team. My +350 SGP also includes player props on Dillon Brooks and Naz Reid.

Check out my Rockets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 6.

Rockets vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +7.5 | Brooks over 14.5 points/rebounds | Reid 3+ threes (+350)

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Timberwolves +7.5 (-315): These two teams are trending in opposite directions.

After a hot start to the New Year, the Rockets look to be running out of fuel, losing their last four games, including two to the mediocre Brooklyn Nets.

The Timberwolves are 6-2 SU in their last eight games, with their offence, led by superstar Anthony Edwards, firing on all cylinders in 2025.

5th in offensive rating (119.1)
7th in net rating (+5.9)
1st in 3PT% (40.5)

Minnesota has covered this number in 17 straight games. Meanwhile, the Rockets haven’t won by eight-plus points since Jan. 15.

Chris Finch’s team operates at a slow tempo, and the Rockets lack the elite shooters needed to defeat a defensively sound team by a wide margin.

That’s why I am confident the T-Wolves will keep this game close.

SGP legs

Brooks over 14.5 points/rebounds (-132): Brooks is quietly on a heater, I want to back him while the iron is still hot.

The savvy Canadian continues to play a greater role on the offensive end, especially with Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith sidelined due to injury.

He’s not the most efficient shooter, but his ability to score in various ways makes him dangerous.

Although the T-Wolves are solid defensively, they allow the fourth-most rebounds to small forwards like Brooks. The last time he faced Houston in November, he grabbed 22 points and 3 rebounds.

Plus, Brooks has cashed this prop in six of his last seven games.

Reid 3+ threes (-107): With Julius Randle (groin) out, Reid has been taking full advantage of his opportunity as a starter.

In three starts this season, he’s averaging 3.7 made three-pointers on 8.3 attempts.

The reigning Sixth Man of the Year buried four triples en route to a 22-point performance last night.

Reid has improved his shooting efficiency over the years, hitting at a career-high 42.2 clip from three. Even if the efficiency drops, Reid should hit this on just volume alone.

He has reached this mark in 10 of his past 13 games.

Picks made at 10:23 a.m. ET 02/06/2025

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Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 6: Bet on Reaves and Green on Thursday

The Los Angeles Lakers look to stay hot when they host a desperate Golden State Warriors team on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Western Conference arms race is heating up. L.A. added Mark Williams days after acquiring Luka Doncic, while Golden State picked up Jimmy Butler. None of those players are expected to play tonight, though, so I’m looking to Austin Reaves and Draymond Green.

Check out my Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 6.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Reaves over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-130)

You can tell how much Los Angeles loves Reaves because he’s still on the roster.

Anthony Davis, Dalton Knecht and Cam Reddish had to pack their bags as the Lakers drastically reshaped their team in preparation for a deep playoff run. But their undrafted shooting guard isn’t going anywhere.

Reaves has had an amazing season, posting career highs in points (18.4), assists (6.2) and rebounds (4.3).

Taking the over on his 22.5-point total is enticing, but I believe there’s better value on him racking up the other two counting stats.

Reaves has posted 11+ rebounds/assists in six straight games (4-2 against this line).
He’s gone over this line in three straight games against the Warriors, playing 35+ minutes in each of those matchups.

Golden State allows the 10th-most assists and 16th-most rebounds per game to SGs, per Fantasy Pros, making this a slightly favourable matchup.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 12.1 rebounds/assists since returning from injury on Dec. 13.

Quick pick

Green over 6.5 rebounds (+110): I don’t like paying this much juice but firmly believe it’s worth it here.

Green has zero scoring touch these days but is still an aggressive rebounder. And with Davis and Wiggins out of the lineup, he should have an opportunity to feast.

The veteran power forward has consistently cleared this line against L.A., even when AD was in the lineup.

Green has averaged 9.1 rebounds in his last 10 games against the Lakers (dating back to May 2023), clearing this line nine times. He had 10 boards against them in 34 minutes back on Dec. 25.

Picks made at 9:26 a.m. ET 02/06/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 6: Ride Michael Porter Jr.’s hot streak, DeMar DeRozan’s steady production

There are four NBA matchups tipping off at 9 p.m. ET or later tonight, and I’ve got prop bets from three of them.

The pregame narrative: Michael Porter Jr. is blazing hot right now and is worth a look against an Orlando Magic team at the end of a long road trip. Elsewhere, I’m backing overs on DeMar DeRozan and Jaxson Hayes.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 6.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Porter over 24.5 points/rebounds (-118)

Porter is coming off his two best games of the season, and I’m here to ride the wave.

In consecutive home games against the New Orleans Pelicans, MPJ finished with 36 and 39 points, respectively, while amassing 19 total rebounds and shooting 12-of-21 (57.1%) from 3-point range.

He’ll face a tougher test on Thursday against the Magic, but it makes a difference that this game is at home. Orlando hasn’t displayed its typical defensive tact during its current road swing:

5 games
116.0 defensive rating
114.4 opponent PPG
49.0 opponent FG%

By comparison, here’s what the Magic’s season-long defensive numbers look like: 108.8 defensive rating, 105.5 PPG, 47.3 FG%.

Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, which I believe is a plus for Porter — not just because he’s accustomed to playing at elevation.

Porter has gone over 24.5 points/rebounds in eight of 10 back-to-backs this season. And he should be fully immersed in heat-check mode tonight based on the way he just torched the Pelicans.

On the glass, the Magic allow the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards (8.2), per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Porter has cashed this bet in seven of his past nine games, averaging 21.1 points and 6.6 rebounds (27.7 PR) in that span.

Quick picks

DeRozan over 19.5 points (-130): The Sacramento Kings are a team in flux right now, but DeRozan provides a steady scoring presence that is worth backing.

With De’Aaron Fox gone, the Kings are just familiarizing themselves with a Malik Monk-Zach LaVine backcourt. Those players combined to shoot 8-for-24 last night in LaVine’s Sacramento debut.

While the team works out some kinks, DeRozan should be relied upon as a high-floor scoring option.

He’s averaging 24.2 PPG since Jan. 6, cashing this bet in 9/14 games.

In that 14-game span, DeRozan has scored 17+ points every time.

Tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers is compelling for a midrange fiend like DeRozan. He attempts 40% of his shots from the long midrange area, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranks in the 100th percentile.

Portland allows the second-highest FG% on long midrange shots (46.8%).

Hayes over 6.5 rebounds (-125): Hayes’ days as a starting big are seemingly numbered, as the Lakers acquired Mark Williams on Wednesday night.

Assuming Williams doesn’t suit up right away, Hayes should be back in the five for L.A. tonight with ample opportunities on the glass.

Hayes has six-plus rebounds in five of six games as a starter. He’s cashed this bet in three of those matchups.

Coming off the bench against the Warriors last month, the 7-footer had three boards in just 12 minutes of action.

Golden State allows the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.3).

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 02/06/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 6: Ride Michael Porter Jr.’s hot streak, DeMar DeRozan’s steady production

There are four NBA matchups tipping off at 9 p.m. ET or later tonight, and I’ve got prop bets from three of them.

The pregame narrative: Michael Porter Jr. is blazing hot right now and is worth a look against an Orlando Magic team at the end of a long road trip. Elsewhere, I’m backing overs on DeMar DeRozan and Jaxson Hayes.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 6.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Porter over 24.5 points/rebounds (-121)

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Porter is coming off his two best games of the season, and I’m here to ride the wave.

In consecutive home games against the New Orleans Pelicans, MPJ finished with 36 and 39 points, respectively, while amassing 19 total rebounds and shooting 12-of-21 (57.1%) from 3-point range.

He’ll face a tougher test on Thursday against the Magic, but it makes a difference that this game is at home. Orlando hasn’t displayed its typical defensive tact during its current road swing:

5 games
116.0 defensive rating
114.4 opponent PPG
49.0 opponent FG%

By comparison, here’s what the Magic’s season-long defensive numbers look like: 108.8 defensive rating, 105.5 PPG, 47.3 FG%.

Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, which I believe is a plus for Porter — not just because he’s accustomed to playing at elevation.

Porter has gone over 24.5 points/rebounds in eight of 10 back-to-backs this season. And he should be fully immersed in heat-check mode tonight based on the way he just torched the Pelicans.

On the glass, the Magic allow the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards (8.2), per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Porter has cashed this bet in seven of his past nine games, averaging 21.1 points and 6.6 rebounds (27.7 PR) in that span.

Quick picks

DeRozan over 20.5 points (-118): The Sacramento Kings are a team in flux right now, but DeRozan provides a steady scoring presence that is worth backing.

With De’Aaron Fox gone, the Kings are just familiarizing themselves with a Malik Monk-Zach LaVine backcourt. Those players combined to shoot 8-for-24 last night in LaVine’s Sacramento debut.

While the team works out some kinks, DeRozan should be relied upon as a high-floor scoring option.

He’s averaging 24.2 PPG since Jan. 6, cashing this bet in 9/14 games.

In that 14-game span, DeRozan has scored 17+ points every time.

Tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers is compelling for a midrange fiend like DeRozan. He attempts 40% of his shots from the long midrange area, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranks in the 100th percentile.

Portland allows the second-highest FG% on long midrange shots (46.8%).

Hayes over 6.5 rebounds (-114): Hayes’ days as a starting big are seemingly numbered, as the Lakers acquired Mark Williams on Wednesday night.

Assuming Williams doesn’t suit up right away, Hayes should be back in the five for L.A. tonight with ample opportunities on the glass.

Hayes has six-plus rebounds in five of six games as a starter. He’s cashed this bet in three of those matchups.

Coming off the bench against the Warriors last month, the 7-footer had three boards in just 12 minutes of action.

Golden State allows the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.3).

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 02/06/2025.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 6: Bet on Reaves and Green on Thursday

The Los Angeles Lakers look to stay hot when they host a desperate Golden State Warriors team on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Western Conference arms race is heating up. L.A. added Mark Williams days after acquiring Luka Doncic, while Golden State picked up Jimmy Butler. None of those players are expected to play tonight, though, so I’m looking to Austin Reaves and Draymond Green.

Check out my Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 6.

Warriors vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Reaves over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-134)

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You can tell how much Los Angeles loves Reaves because he’s still on the roster.

Anthony Davis, Dalton Knecht and Cam Reddish had to pack their bags as the Lakers drastically reshaped their team in preparation for a deep playoff run. But their undrafted shooting guard isn’t going anywhere.

Reaves has had an amazing season, posting career highs in points (18.4), assists (6.2) and rebounds (4.3).

Taking the over on his 22.5-point total is enticing, but I believe there’s better value on him racking up the other two counting stats.

Reaves has posted 11+ rebounds/assists in six straight games (4-2 against this line).
He’s gone over this line in three straight games against the Warriors, playing 35+ minutes in each of those matchups.

Golden State allows the 10th-most assists and 16th-most rebounds per game to SGs, per Fantasy Pros, making this a slightly favourable matchup.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 12.1 rebounds/assists since returning from injury on Dec. 13.

Quick pick

Green 6+ rebounds (-155): I don’t like paying this much juice but firmly believe it’s worth it here.

Green has zero scoring touch these days but is still an aggressive rebounder. And with Davis and Wiggins out of the lineup, he should have an opportunity to feast.

The veteran power forward has consistently cleared this line against L.A., even when AD was in the lineup.

Green has averaged 9.1 rebounds in his last 10 games against the Lakers (dating back to May 2023), clearing this line nine times. He had 10 boards against them in 34 minutes back on Dec. 25.

Picks made at 9:26 a.m. ET 02/06/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 4: Bet on Haliburton, Green and Vucevic to hit overs

With the trade deadline looming, I’m targeting one of the key remaining trade chips in my NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Vucevic has been hauling in a ton of rebounds lately, and I expect him to continue in a plus matchup on Tuesday. Elsewhere, look for Jalen Green and Tyrese Haliburton to shine from the backcourt.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 4.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Green 3+ threes (-121)

Green is coming off a rough night as a 3-point shooter (1-for-8). But there are a few reasons why he should continue to let it fly tonight.

Green is on a roll: Despite his poor performance on Monday, Green has been in a groove beyond the arc over the past month. In 16 games from Jan. 3 through Feb. 3, he shot 40.8% from deep and averaged 3.8 makes per game.

Houston needs 3-point shooting: Fred VanVleet (ankle) is considered week-to-week after sustaining an injury on Saturday. VanVleet averages 7.8 attempted 3s per game, which is second on the Rockets behind only Green (8.1).

Brooklyn is a plus matchup: The Nets, who Green will face tonight, allow the second-highest opponent 3PT% (37.5). They also allow the eighth-most 3s to opposing shooting guards (3.6), per Betting Pros.

I won’t let one down night from Green change my outlook on him.

Based on his recent form, VanVleet’s injury and Tuesday’s matchup, there’s a logical recipe here for Green to hit a trio of 3s.

Key stat: Green has cashed three-plus 3s in 11 of his past 16 games.

Quick picks

Haliburton over 27.5 points/assists (-129): This line would’ve seemed curiously low in either of Haliburton’s two previous seasons, but he’s had a bit of a statistical dip in 2024-25.

Even so, I like his chances to hit the over against a team he’s crushed in recent meetings.

Haliburton has breezed past this total in all three games against the Portland Trail Blazers since the start of last season. He averaged 27.3 points and 12.0 assists in those matchups.

In his past 16 games overall, Haliburton has gone over 27.5 PA nine times while shooting 40.0% from beyond the arc.

Portland allows the seventh-most points to opposing point guards (25.0).

Vucevic over 10.5 rebounds (-122): Vucevic’s matchup against the Miami Heat has my attention.

Miami allows the fourth-most rebounds to opposing centres (16.2), as well as the seventh-most rebounds overall.

Vucevic, who might be playing his final game with the Bulls, is positioned to go out on a high note.

He’s averaged 11.3 rebounds over his past 19 games, cashing this bet 14 times in that span.

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 02/06/2025.

Suns vs. Thunder prop picks Feb. 5: Fade Booker in tough matchup, back Hartenstein for OKC

The Phoenix Suns look to claw into a playoff position against the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Devin Booker became the Suns’ all-time leading scorer on Monday but I’m fading Phoenix’s star guard on Wednesday. My best bet, however, is on Isaiah Hartenstein to record a double-double.

Check out my Suns vs. Thunder prop picks for Feb. 5.

Suns vs. Thunder prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Hartenstein over 22.5 points/rebounds (-125)

To start, Hartenstein is averaging a double-double this season, scoring 11.5 points and grabbing 12.5 rebounds a night.

He’s the most reliable big man on the Thunder’s roster as Chet Holmgren continues to nurse a hip injury.

Hartenstein has 10-plus rebounds in nine of the last 10, so I have little concern about that portion of the wager.

The part that worries me slightly is the points, as the centre finished with less than 10 in six of the last 10.

It’s worth noting that Phoenix has struggled to protect the rim all season, though. Opponents take more shots there than anywhere else on the court and shoot an above-average 57.3%, per 3stepsbasket.com.

Knowing that, who better to bet on than Oklahoma City’s only healthy 7-footer?

Key stat: The Suns give up the fourth-most points to centres per game (25.0).

Quick pick

Booker under 27.5 points (-112): Booker is listed as a shooting guard but plays the point guard role in the Suns’ offence.

That is important because the Thunder allow the fewest points (22.0) per game to opposing PGs, per Fantasy Pros.

Phoenix’s newly minted all-time leading scorer has been productive lately, clearing 26.5 points in four straight games, but OKC is the toughest matchup in the league regardless of position.

The Thunder have the NBA’s best defensive rating (105.4) and concede the fewest points per game (104.4).

Booker has fallen short of this total in three straight meetings with OKC, averaging 16.0 PPG in those games.

There’s potential for a blowout, too, as the Thunder are 12.5-point favourites and lead the league with an average scoring margin of +12.1.

Picks made at 1:07 p.m. ET 02/05/2025.

Suns vs. Thunder prop picks Feb. 5: Fade Booker in tough matchup, back Hartenstein for OKC

The Phoenix Suns look to claw into a playoff position against the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Devin Booker became the Suns’ all-time leading scorer on Monday but I’m fading Phoenix’s star guard on Wednesday. My best bet, however, is on Isaiah Hartenstein to record a double-double.

Check out my Suns vs. Thunder prop picks for Feb. 5.

Suns vs. Thunder prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #108614

Best bet: Hartenstein to record a double-double (-125)

To start, Hartenstein is averaging a double-double this season, scoring 11.5 points and grabbing 12.5 rebounds a night.

He’s the most reliable big man on the Thunder’s roster as Chet Holmgren continues to nurse a hip injury.

Hartenstein has 10-plus rebounds in nine of the last 10, so I have little concern about that portion of the wager.

The part that worries me slightly is the 10-plus points, as the centre fell under that mark in six of the last 10.

It’s worth noting that Phoenix has struggled to protect the rim all season, though. Opponents take more shots there than anywhere else on the court and shoot an above-average 57.3%, per 3stepsbasket.com.

Knowing that, who better to bet on than Oklahoma City’s only healthy 7-footer?

Key stat: The Suns give up the fourth-most points to centres per game (25.0).

Quick pick

Booker under 26.5 points (-115): Booker is listed as a shooting guard but plays the point guard role in the Suns’ offence.

That is important because the Thunder allow the fewest points (22.0) per game to opposing PGs, per Fantasy Pros.

Phoenix’s newly minted all-time leading scorer has been productive lately, clearing 26.5 points in four straight games, but OKC is the toughest matchup in the league regardless of position.

The Thunder have the NBA’s best defensive rating (105.4) and concede the fewest points per game (104.4).

Booker has fallen short of this total in three straight meetings with OKC, averaging 16.0 PPG in those games.

There’s potential for a blowout, too, as the Thunder are 12.5-point favourites and lead the league with an average scoring margin of +12.1.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 02/05/2025.