There are four NBA matchups tipping off at 9 p.m. ET or later tonight, and I’ve got prop bets from three of them.
The pregame narrative: Michael Porter Jr. is blazing hot right now and is worth a look against an Orlando Magic team at the end of a long road trip. Elsewhere, I’m backing overs on DeMar DeRozan and Jaxson Hayes.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 6.
Best NBA prop bets
Best bet: Porter over 24.5 points/rebounds (-118)
Porter is coming off his two best games of the season, and I’m here to ride the wave.
In consecutive home games against the New Orleans Pelicans, MPJ finished with 36 and 39 points, respectively, while amassing 19 total rebounds and shooting 12-of-21 (57.1%) from 3-point range.
He’ll face a tougher test on Thursday against the Magic, but it makes a difference that this game is at home. Orlando hasn’t displayed its typical defensive tact during its current road swing:
- 5 games
- 116.0 defensive rating
- 114.4 opponent PPG
- 49.0 opponent FG%
By comparison, here’s what the Magic’s season-long defensive numbers look like: 108.8 defensive rating, 105.5 PPG, 47.3 FG%.
Both teams are playing on a back-to-back, which I believe is a plus for Porter — not just because he’s accustomed to playing at elevation.
Porter has gone over 24.5 points/rebounds in eight of 10 back-to-backs this season. And he should be fully immersed in heat-check mode tonight based on the way he just torched the Pelicans.
On the glass, the Magic allow the fifth-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards (8.2), per Betting Pros.
Key stat: Porter has cashed this bet in seven of his past nine games, averaging 21.1 points and 6.6 rebounds (27.7 PR) in that span.
Quick picks
DeRozan over 19.5 points (-130): The Sacramento Kings are a team in flux right now, but DeRozan provides a steady scoring presence that is worth backing.
With De’Aaron Fox gone, the Kings are just familiarizing themselves with a Malik Monk-Zach LaVine backcourt. Those players combined to shoot 8-for-24 last night in LaVine’s Sacramento debut.
While the team works out some kinks, DeRozan should be relied upon as a high-floor scoring option.
- He’s averaging 24.2 PPG since Jan. 6, cashing this bet in 9/14 games.
- In that 14-game span, DeRozan has scored 17+ points every time.
Tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers is compelling for a midrange fiend like DeRozan. He attempts 40% of his shots from the long midrange area, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranks in the 100th percentile.
Portland allows the second-highest FG% on long midrange shots (46.8%).
Hayes over 6.5 rebounds (-125): Hayes’ days as a starting big are seemingly numbered, as the Lakers acquired Mark Williams on Wednesday night.
Assuming Williams doesn’t suit up right away, Hayes should be back in the five for L.A. tonight with ample opportunities on the glass.
Hayes has six-plus rebounds in five of six games as a starter. He’s cashed this bet in three of those matchups.
Coming off the bench against the Warriors last month, the 7-footer had three boards in just 12 minutes of action.
Golden State allows the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.3).
Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 02/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.