Thursday’s nightcap features James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers against the Indiana Pacers.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing Harden on an assists milestone tonight as part of a +340 SGP. This three-leg ticket also includes an alt under and a fade on Myles Turner.
Check out my Pacers vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 6.
Pacers vs. Clippers predictions
Parlay: Under 230.5 points | Harden 8+ assists | Turner under 6.5 rebounds (+340)
Under 230.5 points (-139): The Clippers have been among the most defensively responsible squads all season. But the Pacers have recently taken up that mantle, too.
- Since Jan. 1, the Clippers and Pacers rank 2nd and 4th, respectively, in defensive rating.
- L.A. is 1st in opponent points per game in that span, too, while Indiana ranks 8th.
Unders are 4-0 in the Pacers’ past four road games. Only one of those matchups even crested a 220-point total.
As for the Clippers, unders are 10-6 when they’re home favourites this season, per Team Rankings. And seven of their past eight games at Intuit Dome went under this total.
SGP legs
Harden 8+ assists (-305): From an odds standpoint, this is the safest leg of the SGP. And it’s easy to see why.
- Harden is averaging 8.4 assists this season. He’s averaged 9.7 APG over his past five seasons.
- He has 8+ assists in 12/15 games since Jan. 1, averaging 9.7 assists in that span.
The two-time assists leader has a decent matchup tonight despite the Pacers’ recent defensive improvements.
Indiana allows the ninth-most assists per game to opposing point guards, per Team Rankings.
Turner under 6.5 rebounds (-132): You’d think that a 6-foot-11 centre would clear a rebounding total like this with ease, but that often isn’t the case for Turner.
In his past eight games, Turner has gone under 6.5 rebounds six times. He’s also hit the under in 11 of his past 16.
With that in mind, I view Turner as fade-worthy against this number whenever a particularly tough matchup comes along. And that’s exactly what we have here.
The Clippers rank seventh in rebounding rate (51.2%), and they allow the fifth-fewest rebounds to centres.
Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 02/06/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.