Category: NBA

Two Western Conference powerhouses battle in Sunday’s NBA nightcap when the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Edwards is on another level these days and I expect him to stuff the stat sheet in a tough matchup. On the other end of the floor, back Chet Holmgren to have a strong defensive outing.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks for Feb. 23.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

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Best bet: Edwards over 34.5 points rebounds (-115)

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A lot of the talk tonight will be about MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but Edwards is in MVP-calibre form right now, too.

Don’t believe me? Just check out his numbers over the last 20 games:

• 31.2 PPG
• 5.1 RPG
• 39.3 3PT%

Edwards enters this contest on quite the heater, averaging 37.0 points and 6.7 rebounds in his last six games, clearing this line five times.

The outlying performance was against the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Feb. 13 but he still put up 23 points and seven rebounds despite an atrocious 5-for-18 shooting night.

I get OKC is an elite defensive team. But Edwards is an elite player. He might not be able to put up 40 tonight but he should have a much better shooting outing than that.

And on the glass, the Thunder still aren’t an elite rebounding team.

Edwards has had seven rebounds in consecutive games against OKC and in four of his last six games overall. I expect him to feast on the glass and put up a solid scoring outing.

Key stat: Edwards has cleared this line on points alone in four of his last six games.

Quick pick

Holmgren over 3.5 steals and blocks (+123): With Victor Wembanyama out for the season Holmgren might assume the title of most physically gifted player in the NBA.

The 7-foot-1 power forward has insane reach and is a defensive menace. He’s averaging 3.5 blocks and 1.2 steals per game since returning from injury in early February.

In those four games, he’s cleared this line three times. That includes an outing against the T-Wolves where he had two steals and two blocks.

Minnesota commits the 11th-most turnovers per game so I like Holmgren to be active in the steals department.

Picks made at 2:41 p.m. ET 02/23/2025.

Two teams with championship aspirations meet on Sunday when the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Memphis Grizzlies.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland has been the league’s best team this season but Memphis isn’t far off. I like the visitors to cover a teased-up alternate spread, am backing Ja Morant and fading Evan Mobley.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 23.

Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers predictions

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Parlay: Grizzlies +9.5 | Morant 20+ points | Under 18.5 points (+290)

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Grizzlies +9.5 (-230): It’s hard to imagine Memphis getting blown out tonight. The Grizzlies sit second in the Western Conference at 37-19 and own the third-best ATS record (35-21) in basketball.

Cleveland has the best ATS record (37-19) but should struggle to beat Memphis by this margin.

• The Grizzlies have only lost by double-digits eight times this season.
  
• Three of those losses came with Morant sidelined.

Memphis has a relatively clean bill of health while Cleveland has two big names (Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen) listed as questionable.

The Grizzlies have a significant rebounding advantage over the Cavs — second in rebounding rate compared to 12th — and play with the fastest pace in basketball.

I expect them to control the tempo in this one.

SGP legs

Morant 20+ points (-157): Morant is having the worst scoring year since his sophomore season but he’s still putting up 20.5 PPG and has a solid baseline to work with.

The high-flying point guard takes 16.1 shots a night, which has gone up to 18.2 in February.

That type of volume means we’ll be right around this number barring an absolute stinker. And I don’t think Morant will have one against a Cavaliers team allowing the third-most PPG to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Morant has scored 24-plus points in four straight games against the Cavs

Mobley under 18.5 points (-121): This is a solid spot to fade Mobley, who has been largely productive this season.

The Grizzlies are an elite defensive team, ranking seventh in defensive rating (111.0) and third in opponent field goal percentage (45.1%).

At power forward, Mobley does a lot of his damage in the mid-range and at the rim. Memphis has the best mid-range defence in the NBA and the eighth-best rim defence, per Cleaning the Glass.

Mobley only takes 12.6 shots per game so he will need a hyper-efficient performance to top this line.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks for a Sunday matinee.

The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler should feast against an injury-riddled Mavericks team while Klay Thompson is a good bet to can four triples at plus money.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks for Feb. 23.

Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks

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Best bet: Butler over 27.5 points and rebounds (-108)

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On Friday I backed Zion Williamson to clear his 36.5 PRA line against the Mavericks — and he blew by it in just 29 minutes of playing time.

I want to key in on Butler for a lot of the same reasons.

The veteran is slotted at the power forward position in an undersized Warriors lineup. That could typically be viewed as a problem for rebounding totals but he’s going up against a Mavericks team decimated by injuries.

The following players are out for Sunday’s game:

• Anthony Davis
• Daniel Gafford
• Derrick Lively

Dallas’ projected centre, according to RotoWire, is 6-foot-7 Kessler Edwards, who is averaging 4.8 points and 4.3 rebounds tonight.

The Mavs are even more undersized than the Warriors and already struggled to defend power forwards to begin with.

Dallas is allowing the 10th-most points and 13th-most rebounds per game to PFs, according to Fantasy Pros

Key stat: Since joining the Warriors, Butler is 2-3 against this line while also landing on exactly 27 points/rebounds twice. He had 21 points and nine rebounds against the Mavs on Feb. 12.

Quick pick

Thompson over 3.5 threes (+140): I wouldn’t call this a revenge game because Thompson and the Warriors seem to be on amicable terms.

But it sure seems like the former Splash Brother loves to stick it to his old squad.

• Thompson is averaging 22.7 points over three games against the Warriors this season.
  
• He’s made 5+ threes in each contest while shooting a combined 48.6% from deep.

Scoring on the interior isn’t really an option for Dallas right now and Thompson is still a premier perimeter player, even at 35 years old.

He’s cleared this mark in three straight games and five of his last 10.

Picks made at 11:17 a.m. ET 02/23/2025.

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Minnesota Timberwolves in a potential Western Conference playoff preview.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota easily disposed of Oklahoma City before the NBA All-Star break, but I expect the Thunder to return the favour. Additionally, I’m taking the under on the game total and Mike Conley’s points prop to round out this ticket.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 23.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Thunder -11.5 | Under 226.5 points | Conley under 9.5 points (+475)

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Thunder -11.5 (+118): Minnesota dominated OKC to the tune of a 116-101 victory before the pause, but there are several reasons why I’m backing the latter on a teased-up spread.

Firstly, that loss snapped a seven-game streak where the Thunder won each game by 12-plus points. Oklahoma City then earned a 130-107 over the Utah Jazz after returning from the All-Star break.

Secondly, this is a battle of teams at different ends of the ATS win rate spectrum. The Thunder boast the second-best against-the-spread win percentage (63.5%) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (42.9%).

Lastly, Minnesota has been especially bad at home. It’s a mediocre 15-13 straight-up and a disappointing 9-19-1 ATS.

SGP legs

Under 226.5 points (+108): Both these teams feature stout defences that should keep this total below the number.

The two combined for 117 points in their most recent outing which marked the second time this campaign that they fell below this number.

Opposing squads have struggled to muster much against the Thunder’s suffocating defence. They’re ceding the fewest points per game (104.9).

It’s difficult to pick out a weakness in OKC’s defence. The Thunder are surrendering the fewest fast-break points per game (12.1) and points in the paint per contest (42.9).

The Timberwolves aren’t too far back, allowing the fifth-fewest points per contest (108.3). Minnesota’s defensive strength is tied to its slow pace as it ranks 25th in pace (97.90) this season.

Conley under 9.5 points (-134): This pick ties in nicely with my first two selections.

Conley is an inconsistent scorer who doesn’t usurp this mark all that often. He has gone below 9.5 points in 13 of his last 17 outings and is only averaging 8.2 points per game.

An above-average performance against the Thunder seems unlikely. OKC is allowing the fewest points per game to opposing point guards (21.76).

Conley’s usage is worth monitoring, too. He played 23:59 in his most recent outing, which was his first game back from a four-game absence.

Picks made at 10:33 a.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

I’ve got three prop bets for Sunday’s all-day NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: First up, back Derrick White to have a game against the New York Knicks. Then, back Tyler Herro against the Milwaukee Bucks and fade Evan Mobley against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 23.

Best NBA prop bets

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Best bet: White over 14.5 points (-110)

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White isn’t the first, second or third option on the Celtics but that’s what makes them a championship-calibre team.

Boston has scoring depth littered throughout its lineup and I expect White to provide some pop today.

The shooting guard is averaging 16.1 PPG while shooting 37.8% from his deep. And he’s been on a nice little tear over the last 10 games:

• 17.6 PPG
• 41.9 3PT%
• 15+ points in 8/10 games

One of those games was against the Knicks on Feb. 8 when White scored 17 points while making 4-of-7 threes in a blowout effort (he only played 25 minutes).

Assuming this game is closer, I like White’s chances of racking up points by exploiting the NBA’s worst 3-point defence.

Key stat: White is 2-0 against this line while playing the Knicks this year, shooting a combined 10-for-17 in those games.

Quick picks

Herro over 23.5 points (-118): Herro is poised for a monster night. Jimmy Butler is out which means the sharpshooting guard is officially top dog.

That was the case most of the year to begin with, as Herro has posted career-highs in points (23.9), 3s made (3.7) and 3s attempted (9.7).

He scored 28 points against the Toronto Raptors in his first game since the all-star break and has cleared this line in three of his last six games.

Now, Herro gets a Milwaukee Bucks team which allows the most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mobley under 18.5 points (-115): Mobley is having the best scoring year of his career but this is a prime fade spot.

The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, ranking seventh in defensive rating (111.0) and third in opponent field goal percentage (45.1%).

Mobley does a lot of his damage in the mid-range and Memphis has the best mid-range defence in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Cleveland’s power forward is efficient but only takes 12.6 shots per game. I can see the Grizzlies making his life difficult.

Picks made at 9:43 a.m. ET on 02/22/2025.