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Luka Doncic props vs. Mavericks Feb. 25: Fade Lakers star in first game against Dallas since trade

All month, since arguably the biggest trade in NBA history went down, anticipation has been building for Luka Doncic‘s first matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: On Tuesday, Doncic will face his former team as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. Four games into his L.A. tenure, the five-time All-NBA guard appears to be at full go and is expected to put up huge numbers.

Check out these Luka Doncic props for the Feb. 25 matchup against the Mavericks.

Luka Doncic props vs. Mavericks

Doncic markets	Betting odds
Over 31.5 points	-110
Under 31.5 points	-130
Over 9.5 rebounds	-112
Under 9.5 rebounds	-125
Over 7.5 assists	-150
Under 7.5 assists	+105
Over 39.5 PA	-118
Under 39.5 PA	-120
Over 3.5 threes	-163
Under 3.5 threes	+115
Over 17.5 RA	+100
Under 17.5 RA	-143

Best Doncic prop bet

Best Bet: Under 3.5 threes (+115)

It feels safe to assume Doncic wants to bury the Mavericks. A stellar performance on Tuesday would help bolster the already strong sentiment that he’s winning the breakup.

And I expect that he will have a great night, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to blindly bet overs.

Defensively, the Mavericks are most vulnerable around the rim right now. That’s where Doncic and the Lakers should impose their will.

Three notable bigs for the Mavericks are out: Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. Another one, Dwight Powell, is listed as doubtful.

Dallas has allowed the fifth-fewest attempted 3s per game this season (36.0).

Doncic has gone under 3.5 threes in 15/26 games (57.8%).

Doncic has never been shy about getting shots up, but it hasn’t been a strong year for him beyond the arc. Among 64 players averaging six or more attempted 3s, he’s 50th in 3PT% (34.3).

Through four games with the Lakers, he’s shooting just 27.3% from deep.

Also, keep in mind that the Lakers (-9) are pretty sizeable home favourites. I’m sure Doncic will want to land some punches against the Mavs, but this is the first of three games in four days for L.A.

Between the possibility of a blowout and the obvious mismatch in the paint, Doncic feels like a worthy fade candidate at this number.

Key stat: Dallas is allowing just 3.0 threes per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros. That’s the eighth-fewest in the NBA.

Pick as of 9:50 a.m. ET on 02/25/2025.

Celtics vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan. 25: Back RJ Barrett and Jaylen Brown in Toronto

The Toronto Raptors host the Boston Celtics as massive home underdogs on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has played Boston surprisingly tough this year and I like it to cover a hefty alternate spread at home. Prop bets on RJ Barrett and Jaylen Brown round out this +295 wager.

Check out my Celtics vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 25.

Celtics vs. Raptors predictions

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Embed: #110165

Parlay: Raptors +15.5 | Barrett 2+ threes | Brown 20+ points (+295)

Raptors +15.5 (-220): These teams couldn’t have more different goals. Boston is gearing up for a championship defence while Toronto is looking for a high draft pick. Still, this is a great number to back the Raptors at.

Toronto is 1-2 against Boston this season (2-1 vs. a +15.5 spread), winning the most recent matchup outright, 110-97.
The Raptors are 17-9-1 ATS as a home underdog this season, losing by an average of just 3.4 points.

Boston is on a rampage right now, winning five straight games and nine of its last 10. But it has still only covered a -15.5 spread in five of those games

Also, the Celtics will be without Jrue Holiday while the Raptors have a relatively clean bill of health, with only Jakob Poeltl listed as questionable (hip).

SGP legs

Barrett 2+ threes (-120): Barrett has hit at least one 3-pointer in 13 straight games and has cleared this line in eight of his last 11 outings.

He also has some stark home/road splits I want to tap into:

Home: 2.1 threes per game on 5.3 attempts (39.3%)
Road: 1.7 threes per game on 5.2 attempts (32.7%)

Boston is a solid defensive team, especially on the perimeter, holding opponents to the fourth-lowest 3-point percentage in basketball. But Barrett gets his shots up and has been reliable against this number lately.

I like his chances of having a solid game.

Brown 20+ points (-175): Brown is well-positioned to lead the Celtics in scoring tonight.

The swingman is averaging 22.9 PPG and has reached this mark in eight of his last 10 games. He’s also scored 20-plus in seven of his last 10 meetings against the Raptors.

Toronto’s biggest weakness on defence is the midrange (20th in opponent FG%) and the rim (19th), according to Cleaning the Glass.

Brown takes 39% of his shots from the midrange and 31% of his shots at the rim, which rank in the 92nd and 61st percentile, respectively, among all NBA players.

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET 02/25/2025.

Luka Doncic props vs. Mavericks Feb. 25: Fade Lakers star in first game against Dallas since trade

All month, since arguably the biggest trade in NBA history went down, anticipation has been building for Luka Doncic‘s first matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: On Tuesday, Doncic will face his former team as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. Four games into his L.A. tenure, the five-time All-NBA guard appears to be at full go and is expected to put up huge numbers.

Check out these Luka Doncic props for the Feb. 25 matchup against the Mavericks.

Luka Doncic props vs. Mavericks

Doncic markets	Betting odds
Over 31.5 points	-114
Under 31.5 points	-117
10+ rebounds	-114
Over 7.5 assists	-148
Under 7.5 assists	+112
Over 49.5 PRA	-115
Under 49.5 PRA	-115
Over 3.5 threes	-148
Under 3.5 threes	+112
To record a double-double	-175
To record a triple-double	+500

Best Doncic prop bet

Best Bet: Under 3.5 threes (+112)

Embed: #110160

It feels safe to assume Doncic wants to bury the Mavericks. A stellar performance on Tuesday would help bolster the already strong sentiment that he’s winning the breakup.

And I expect that he will have a great night, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to blindly bet overs.

Defensively, the Mavericks are most vulnerable around the rim right now. That’s where Doncic and the Lakers should impose their will.

Three notable bigs for the Mavericks are out: Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively. Another one, Dwight Powell, is listed as doubtful.

Dallas has allowed the fifth-fewest attempted 3s per game this season (36.0).

Doncic has gone under 3.5 threes in 15/26 games (57.8%).

Doncic has never been shy about getting shots up, but it hasn’t been a strong year for him beyond the arc. Among 64 players averaging six or more attempted 3s, he’s 50th in 3PT% (34.3).

Through four games with the Lakers, he’s shooting just 27.3% from deep.

Also, keep in mind that the Lakers (-9) are pretty sizeable home favourites. I’m sure Doncic will want to land some punches against the Mavs, but this is the first of three games in four days for L.A.

Between the possibility of a blowout and the obvious mismatch in the paint, Doncic feels like a worthy fade candidate at this number.

Key stat: Dallas is allowing just 3.0 threes per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros. That’s the eighth-fewest in the NBA.

Pick as of 9:10 a.m. ET on 02/25/2025.

Hornets vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Feb. 24: Take overs for Murray and Bridges at +440

The final game of the night features the lowly Charlotte Hornets visiting the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: The Hornets are playing like they’re ready for the draft lottery and I’ll happily fade them tonight. I also have picks on a pair of power forwards — Keegan Murray and Miles Bridges — in this +440 SGP.

Check out my Hornets vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 24.

Hornets vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Kings -8 | Murray 2+ threes | Bridges over 23.5 points (+440)

Embed: #110145

Kings -8 (-215): Sacramento laid an egg in its first game back from the break, losing 132-108 to the Golden State Warriors.

But three days rest and a game against the Hornets should have the Kings feeling motivated to get back into the win column.

Dating back to the start of February, Charlotte is 2-8 and is coming off a 141-88 beatdown by the Portland Trail Blazers.

This will be the Hornets’ fourth game since the all-star game so fatigue is sure to be a factor.

Charlotte is 1-6-1 against this spread since Feb. 1.

SGP legs

Murray 2+ threes (-167): The Hornets allow the seventh-most points and fourth-most 3s to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

That sounds like a dream matchup for Murray, who takes a good chunk of his attempts from the perimeter.

He is having a down-shooting season, but this is still very much an achievable line.

Murray hits 1.8 threes on 5.6 attempts per game (32.7%).

Those are career lows. Last season, he hit 2.4 threes per game at a 35.8% clip.

He’s tapping into that shooting form lately, hitting two-plus 3s in six of the last nine games at a 39.6% rate.

Birdges over 23.5 points (-106): Bridges has quietly been a good scorer on a bad team.

Since Jan. 15, the athletic forward is averaging 22.8 points and 33.8 minutes per game. And now he draws a great matchup for his position.

The Kings concede the most points to PFs (24.7) per game.

Charlotte has been at the receiving end of many blowouts this season, often capping Bridges scoring ceiling.

But even last time out, when the Hornets lost by 53 to the Blazers, Bridges had a team-high 17 points and 16 shot attempts in a measly 23 minutes of action.

Those types of huge losses don’t come often so chances are this game is at least close enough for Bridges to crack 30 minutes.

If that’s the case, he’s in the position to have a high-scoring night.

Picks made at 2:14 p.m. ET on 02/24/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 24: Back DeRozan, Reid and Giddey to score on Monday night

The NBA kicks off the new week with an eight-game slate on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: I have three recommendations that all involve scoring props. My targets are Josh Giddey, Naz Reid and DeMar DeRozan.

Check out how I’m backing them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 24.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Giddey over 15.5 points (-120)

The 22-year-old is coming off his two best-scoring games of the season and I’m all in for him to stay hot on what’s been an achievable line this month.

Giddey scored 24 points in his last game following a season-best 27-point performance.

His efficiency and volume have spiked since Zach LaVine was shipped out of town and Giddey has been strong from long range.

Take a look at what the Chicago Bulls guard has done this month:

48.1 FG% on 16.3 attempts
3+ 3s in 5/8 games
48.8% from deep

Giddey’s improved 3-point stroke isn’t sustainable (he’s a 32.2% shooter from long range) but he’s been firing it up and should contribute from the perimeter again tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philadelphia is 26th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Key stat: Giddey is 6-2 against this line in February.

Quick picks

Reid over 26.5 points/rebounds (-125): Reid is on a heater and has taken it to the Oklahoma City Thunder twice this month.

The 25-year-old double-doubled against the Thunder last night and on Thursday, scoring 22 and 27 points, respectively, in the two outings.

In December, Reid scored 19 versus OKC. He’s averaged 11.0 rebounds in those three games.

Frontcourt injuries have opened up more playing time for Reid, who’s averaging 34.9 minutes in February and taking five more shots per game than his season average.

Reid is averaging 20.1 pts in Feb.
Last 4 games: 22.1 pts, 11.5 reb.
Topped this line in 7/10 Feb. games

DeRozan over 21.5 points (-118): In eight games since star point guard De’Aaron Fox was traded to the San Antonio Spurs, DeRozan’s scoring has unsurprisingly soared.

The veteran wing has morphed into the Kings’ top option on offence, averaging 25.6 points over those eight games.

LaVine is averaging 20.3 points with his new team and Domantas Sabonis’ scoring has gone down without Fox.

Sacramento’s starting unit is all capable of scoring in double figures but DeRozan is the most consistent and arguably has the highest ceiling.

DeRozan has three 30-plus scoring games in his last 15, in addition to a 42-point outburst.

The Kings have the rest advantage against the Charlotte Hornets, who have been crushed by double digits in their last two games and are coming off a 53-point loss.

Picks made at 11:57 a.m. ET on 02/24/2025.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions Feb. 24: Bet on Simons and Clingan to roll at +320

The Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz meet for a late-night duel on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Portland is coming off a commanding victory on Saturday and I expect it to roll Utah tonight. Bet on two of its starters — Anfernee Simons and Donovan Clingan — to produce in this +320 SGP.

Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 24.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Trail Blazers -5.5 | Simons over 21.5 points | Clingan over 7.5 rebounds (+320)

Embed: #110134

Trail Blazers -5.5 (-113): Portland snapped its four-game losing streak in style by dismantling the Charlotte Hornets 141-88 on Saturday.

And I can’t knock the Blazers for dropping the games before that. They played the Nuggets in Denver (twice), the Timberwolves in Minnesota, and the Los Angeles Lakers.

Before that four-game skid, Portland had won 10 of 11 games and was the hottest team in basketball.

I like what I’m seeing out of Chauncy Billups’ squad and want to get in on Portland tonight.

At 14-42, Utah sits near the bottom of the NBA standings. And two of its best players — Walker Kessler and Lauri Markannen — are currently listed as questionable for Monday’s contest.

Portland is 34-22-1 ATS this year.

SGP legs

Simons over 21.5 points (-122): Don’t be surprised if Simons goes nuclear tonight.

The guard leads Portland in points (18.5), field goal attempts (15.4) and 3-point attempts (8.1) per game, which puts us in a good spot volume-wise.

He hasn’t shot the lights out this year but has scored 20-plus points in nine of his last 15 games, clearing this mark eight times.

Utah should present a favourable matchup for Simons, too. The Jazz allow the second-most PPG to point guards and shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Clingan over 7.5 rebounds (-286): It looks like Portland has found a gem with Clingan.

The 2024 No. 7 overall pick has been thrust into the starting lineup with Deandre Ayton sidelined and is thriving.

Starter (13 games): 22.2 minutes, 10.0 rebounds
Bench (30 games): 13.9 minutes, 5.3 rebounds

Clingan has recorded eight-plus rebounds in eight of 13 games as a starter.

That includes a 20-rebound performance against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and a 19-rebound performance against the Houston Rockets (No. 1 in rebounding rate, per NBA.com).

Utah is solid on the glass but Clingan has feasted against good teams before. This leg should be a cinch.

Picks made at 12:24 p.m. ET on 02/24/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 24: Back DeRozan, Reid and Giddey to score on Monday night

The NBA kicks off the new week with an eight-game slate on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: I have three recommendations that all involve scoring props. My targets are Josh Giddey, Naz Reid and DeMar DeRozan.

Check out how I’m backing them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 24.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Giddey over 16.5 points (-103)

Embed: #110113

The 22-year-old is coming off his two best-scoring games of the season and I’m all in for him to stay hot on what’s been an achievable line this month.

Giddey scored 24 points in his last game following a season-best 27-point performance.

His efficiency and volume have spiked since Zach LaVine was shipped out of town and Giddey has been strong from long range.

Take a look at what the Chicago Bulls guard has done this month:

48.1 FG% on 16.3 attempts
3+ 3s in 5/8 games
48.8% from deep

Giddey’s improved 3-point stroke isn’t sustainable (he’s a 32.2% shooter from long range) but he’s been firing it up and should contribute from the perimeter again tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philadelphia is 26th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.

Key stat: Giddey is 6-2 against this line in February.

Quick picks

Reid over 26.5 points/rebounds (-122): Reid is on a heater and has taken it to the Oklahoma City Thunder twice this month.

The 25-year-old double-doubled against the Thunder last night and on Thursday, scoring 22 and 27 points, respectively, in the two outings.

In December, Reid scored 19 versus OKC. He’s averaged 11.0 rebounds in those three games.

Frontcourt injuries have opened up more playing time for Reid, who’s averaging 34.9 minutes in February and taking five more shots per game than his season average.

Reid is averaging 20.1 pts in Feb.
Last 4 games: 22.1 pts, 11.5 reb.
Topped this line in 7/10 Feb. games

DeRozan over 22.5 points (+104): In eight games since star point guard De’Aaron Fox was traded to the San Antonio Spurs, DeRozan’s scoring has unsurprisingly soared.

The veteran wing has morphed into the Kings’ top option on offence, averaging 25.6 points over those eight games.

LaVine is averaging 20.3 points with his new team and Domantas Sabonis’ scoring has gone down without Fox.

Sacramento’s starting unit is all capable of scoring in double figures but DeRozan is the most consistent and arguably has the highest ceiling.

DeRozan has three 30-plus scoring games in his last 15, in addition to a 42-point outburst.

The Kings have the rest advantage against the Charlotte Hornets, who have been crushed by double digits in their last two games and are coming off a 53-point loss.

Picks made at 11:57 a.m. ET on 02/24/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Feb. 24: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, Reid in Western Conference showdown

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder run it back on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder won, 130-123, on Sunday in an exciting game from start to finish. Fans are treated to an immediate rematch tonight and I have prop picks on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Naz Reid.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Feb. 24.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (+110)

The MVP favourite is tapping into his playmaking ability recently and it was on full display last night.

SGA finished with eight assists on Sunday.

He has seven-plus assists in five of the past six games.

Two of the Thunders’ past three contests were against the T-Wolves so there’s plenty of recent data to study.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 8.5 assists in those games.

Part of the uptick in recent assist numbers must be because of Chet Holmgren’s return. The seven-foot sophomore is shaping back into form, scoring 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting on Sunday.

That adds another option for the Thunder and a formidable pick-and-pop option for SGA.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander’s cleared this line in four of the past six games vs. Minnesota.

Quick pick

Reid over 27.5 points and rebounds (-110): There is no injury report for either the Thunder or Wolves at the time of writing.

It’s unlikely either Julius Randle or Rudy Gobert return for Minnesota meaning Reid should start again tonight, but that is worth monitoring.

If Reid is in the starting lineup, this line becomes all the more appetizing. Why? Well, take a look at his last nine games as a starter:

21.4 points, 9.6 rebounds per game (32.0 PRA).

He’s 8-1 against this line during that time.

In the two recent meetings with OKC, he averaged 37.0 points/rebounds.

Reid’s been on the court often as an important part of the T-Wolves rotation. He played north of 32 minutes in nine straight.

Even if Randle and/or Gobert are in, I can’t see either logging big minutes after missing significant time.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 02/24/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Feb. 24: Back Gilgeous-Alexander, Reid in Western Conference showdown

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder run it back on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder won, 130-123, on Sunday in an exciting game from start to finish. Fans are treated to an immediate rematch tonight and I have prop picks on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Naz Reid.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Feb. 24.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (+114)

Embed: #110089

The MVP favourite is tapping into his playmaking ability recently and it was on full display last night.

SGA finished with eight assists on Sunday.

He has seven-plus assists in five of the past six games.

Two of the Thunders’ past three contests were against the T-Wolves so there’s plenty of recent data to study.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 8.5 assists in those games.

Part of the uptick in recent assist numbers must be because of Chet Holmgren’s return. The seven-foot sophomore is shaping back into form, scoring 19 points on 8-of-11 shooting on Sunday.

That adds another option for the Thunder and a formidable pick-and-pop option for SGA.

Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander’s cleared this line in four of the past six games vs. Minnesota.

Quick pick

Reid over 29.5 points, rebounds and assists (-110): There is no injury report for either the Thunder or Wolves at the time of writing.

It’s unlikely either Julius Randle or Rudy Gobert return for Minnesota meaning Reid should start again tonight, but that is worth monitoring.

If Reid is in the starting lineup, this line becomes all the more appetizing. Why? Well, take a look at his last nine games as a starter:

21.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists per game (34.7 PRA).

He’s 8-1 against this line during that time.

In the two recent meetings with OKC, he averaged 41.5 points/rebounds/assists.

Reid’s been on the court often as an important part of the T-Wolves rotation. He played north of 32 minutes in nine straight.

Even if Randle and/or Gobert are in, I can’t see either logging big minutes after missing significant time.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 02/24/2025.

Nuggets vs. Pacers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 24: Back Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon at +320

I’m bullish on the Denver Nuggets as they take on an Indiana Pacers team playing its second game in as many nights.

The pregame narrative: Indiana beat the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday but its ATS record with no rest is partially why I’m backing Denver to cover an alt line. Prop bets on Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon round out this +320 SGP.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Pacers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 24.

Nuggets vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Nuggets -2.5 | Jokic 12+ rebounds | Gordon over 13.5 points (+320)

Embed: #110086

Nuggets -2.5 (-167): Denver’s nine-game winning streak ended on Saturday but I expect it to rebound tonight.

The Nuggets have been one of the best team’s in basketball since the New Year, posting a 19-7 record with a +8.6 net rating (third). I have to give the Pacers their flowers, too, as they’re 16-5 with a +5.9 net rating (sixth) in the same span.

But Indiana has struggled mightily on back-to-backs this season with a 2-6 ATS record and -8.8 average margin of defeat.

Denver has won and covered a -2.5 spread in eight straight games against Indiana.

SGP legs

Jokic 12+ rebounds (-190): Jokic is averaging 12.7 rebounds per game, which ranks third in the NBA and is the second-highest mark of his career outside his 2021-22 MVP season (13.8).

So all I’m asking of the Serbian superstar is an average performance in an above-average matchup.

The Pacers are 27th in rebounding rate (48.5%) and give up the sixth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.9), according to Fantasy Pros.

Indiana has no seven footers in the starting lineup with Myles Turner being the only player standing above 6-foot-8. Jokic has cleared this mark in three straight games and should feast on Monday.

Gordon over 13.5 points (-117): Gordon has made a career out of abusing the dunker’s spot and tonight should be no different.

The high-flying power forward draws a dream matchup against the Pacers:

Indiana allows the fifth-most PPG in the paint (50.4), per Team Rankings.
It also allows the fourth-most PPG to opposing power forwards.
Gordon has scored 18+ points in three straight matchups with Indiana.

The 29-year-old has cleared this mark in both games coming out of the all-star break, dropping 18 and 24 points while shooting above 60.0% from the field in each game.

Picks made at 9:00 a.m. ET on 02/24/2025.