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Lakers vs. Nuggets prop picks Feb. 22: Back Jokic, Hachimura in marquee matchup

The Los Angeles Lakers visit the Denver Nuggets in a compelling Saturday night showdown.

The pregame narrative: The Nuggets are red hot, going 9-1 over their last 10 games. I expect Nikola Jokic to fill the stat sheet in his typical fashion against the Lakers, and I’ll take Rui Hachimura to clear a modest point total for Los Angeles.

Check out my Lakers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Feb. 22.

Lakers vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best bet: Jokic over 40.5 points/rebounds (-108)

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During Denver’s ascension up the Western Conference standings, the three-time MVP has been making the case for a fourth.

Jokic has cleared this line in 6/8 games in February.

He’s averaging 42.2 points/rebounds over that time.

There’s a glaring weakness in the Lakers’ starting five, and it’s the centre position. Jaxon Hayes has filled in as the starter since the departure of Anthony Davis.

While Hayes is serviceable, he averages 18.0 minutes per night and is no match for Jokic down low.

If I’m coach Mike Malone, I’m running everything through Jokic on Saturday night.

In his one game against L.A. this season, Jokic had 34 points and 13 rebounds — and that was with AD on the roster.

Key stat: Jokic has cleared this line in three of the past four regular season meetings with the Lakers, averaging 42.8 PR in those games.

Quick pick

Hachimura over 14.5 points (-106): On the Los Angeles side, I’ll ride with Hachimura.

The forward had only six points against the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday but surpassed this total in seven of eight games before that.

In those eight games, he averaged 19.4 points.

He shot 56.2% from the field and 45.7% from 3 during that run.

With how he’s been shooting the lights out while Luka Doncic works his way back into form, Hachimura should once again see enough volume to score 15-plus points.

Picks made at 1:19 p.m. ET 02/22/2025.

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 22: Fade Avdija but back Portland to win

Looking to snap a losing skid, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday night in the NBA’s final matchup of the evening.

The pregame narrative: Nick Smith Jr. had a rough shooting night when he last faced Portland, and I’m skeptical he’ll have many opportunities to flip the script tonight. I’m fading Smith and Deni Avdija while backing Portland to win in a +400 SGP.

Check out my Hornets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 22.

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers predictions

Parlay: Trail Blazers ML | Smith under 2.5 threes | Avdija under 6.5 rebounds (+350)

Trail Blazers moneyline (-200): Portland is on a four-game losing streak, but all four of those losses came against reputable teams in the playoff picture (Timberwolves, Nuggets twice, Lakers).

Charlotte is not even close to that calibre, with a 14-40 record and a Cooper-Flagg-sized lottery dream.

Prior to its four-game skid, Portland had rattled off a 10-1 stretch in which all 10 wins came as the underdog. Even a play-in spot is a long shot at this point, but at least the Blazers are putting up a fight.

Portland is 4-1 against Charlotte since the start of the 2022-23 season. That includes a 102-97 win for the Blazers in Charlotte last month.

The Hornets are 5-20 on the road with an unsightly -7.6 net rating (26th in the NBA).

SGP legs

Smith under 2.5 threes (-154): If Smith was going to go over 2.5 threes against the Blazers, he needed to do it last time out when both LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges were out.

Instead, he turned in a 2-for-10 performance from beyond the arc to fall short.

Ball and Bridges combine to average 18.9 attempted 3s per game, so having them back in the lineup tonight should really cut down on Smith’s chances.

And it’s not like Portland is a plus matchup for 3-point shooters, anyway. The Blazers allow the sixth-fewest makes (12.8/game) and the third-fewest attempts (35.3/game).

Avdija under 6.5 rebounds (-118): Deandre Ayton is out tonight, but the Blazers still have enough size in their rotation that I just can’t get behind Avdija at this rebound number.

Led by 7-foot-2 centre Donovan Clingan, the Blazers have plenty of size in the frontcourt. Robert Williams just came back from injury, too, while Toumani Camara has at least five rebounds in 12 of his past 13 games.

There are simply too many mouths to feed on the glass, and Avdija isn’t asserting himself.

In his past nine matchups, Avdija has averaged 4.9 rebounds. He’s cashed this under in 8/9 games in that span.

Avdija had five rebounds vs. Charlotte on Jan. 24, and that was with both Ayton and Williams out.

On the season, Avdija has hit this under in 34 of 53 games (64.2%).

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 22: Bet on LeBron, Durant to fill the net

LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the headliners in my Saturday NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Both LeBron and KD are lighting it up as scorers right now, and I expect that to continue. I’m also bullish on Alperen Sengun in a plus matchup against the Utah Jazz.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 22.

Best NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 threes (-118)

Given that Durant gets most of his buckets in the mid-range, his stellar 3-point shooting often goes overlooked.

As far as prop markets go, Durant’s problem is volume — not efficiency. When he puts up enough 3s, plenty are bound to go in.

Since 2020-21, Durant has a 40.9 3PT% on 5.4 attempts. He’s averaged 40.0 3PT% or better in four of those five seasons.

In 125 games with the Suns, Durant has averaged 2.3 made 3s on 41.8 3PT%.

In order to feel good about Durant hitting this milestone, you need to see him matched up with a team that allows a lot of 3s. I trust his efficiency enough that I’m just looking for a volume-based matchup.

Enter the Chicago Bulls.

Thanks in part to their fast-paced play, the Bulls allow the second-most 3s in the NBA (39.7/game).

In fairness to the Bulls, they also allow the third-lowest opponent 3PT% (34.4). But I’ll take that trade-off since I’m just looking for Durant to get shots up.

Durant should also be encouraged to heave deep shots based on how well it’s going right now. In his past 10 games, Durant is shooting 48.5% beyond the arc and averaging 3.3 makes.

Key stat: Durant has 3+ threes in 13 of 22 home games this season.

Quick picks

Sengun over 20.5 points (-112): Sengun has seen starter’s minutes in two previous matchups against the Jazz, and he put in some solid work against them both times.

Jan. 5, 2023: 20 points on 7-of-14 shooting (32 min)
Jan. 20, 2024: 37 points on 15-of-26 shooting (42 min)

Sengun’s scoring average this season (18.9 PPG) isn’t quite at this mark. But I’m a fan of the matchup, so a slight uptick in production is well within reach.

Utah allows 23.8 PPG to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, which is the sixth-highest total in the NBA.

Excluding a recent game that he left early due to injury, Sengun has averaged 20.2 points since Jan. 7.

LeBron over 24.5 points (-130): Eventually, Luka Doncic will regain his shooting stroke and this scoring milestone will be more difficult for LeBron to obtain.

But right now, with Doncic still ramping up after a few underwhelming games in Lakers colours, LeBron is worth a play at this price.

The King has dropped 40-plus points twice already this month. And he’s cashed this prop in nine of his past 15 games.

The Denver Nuggets are a strong team, but they don’t excel defensively (17th in defensive rating). LeBron has 25-plus points in seven of eight games against Denver since last February.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 22: Fade Avdija but back Portland to win

Looking to snap a losing skid, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday night in the NBA’s final matchup of the evening.

The pregame narrative: Nick Smith Jr. had a rough shooting night when he last faced Portland, and I’m skeptical he’ll have many opportunities to flip the script tonight. I’m fading Smith and Deni Avdija while backing Portland to win in a +400 SGP.

Check out my Hornets vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 22.

Hornets vs. Trail Blazers predictions

Parlay: Trail Blazers ML | Smith under 2.5 threes | Avdija under 6.5 rebounds (+400)

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Trail Blazers moneyline (-180): Portland is on a four-game losing streak, but all four of those losses came against reputable teams in the playoff picture (Timberwolves, Nuggets twice, Lakers).

Charlotte is not even close to that calibre, with a 14-40 record and a Cooper-Flagg-sized lottery dream.

Prior to its four-game skid, Portland had rattled off a 10-1 stretch in which all 10 wins came as the underdog. Even a play-in spot is a long shot at this point, but at least the Blazers are putting up a fight.

Portland is 4-1 against Charlotte since the start of the 2022-23 season. That includes a 102-97 win for the Blazers in Charlotte last month.

The Hornets are 5-20 on the road with an unsightly -7.6 net rating (26th in the NBA).

SGP legs

Smith under 2.5 threes (-162): If Smith was going to go over 2.5 threes against the Blazers, he needed to do it last time out when both LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges were out.

Instead, he turned in a 2-for-10 performance from beyond the arc to fall short.

Ball and Bridges combine to average 18.9 attempted 3s per game, so having them back in the lineup tonight should really cut down on Smith’s chances.

And it’s not like Portland is a plus matchup for 3-point shooters, anyway. The Blazers allow the sixth-fewest makes (12.8/game) and the third-fewest attempts (35.3/game).

Avdija under 6.5 rebounds (+102): Deandre Ayton is out tonight, but the Blazers still have enough size in their rotation that I just can’t get behind Avdija at this rebound number.

Led by 7-foot-2 centre Donovan Clingan, the Blazers have plenty of size in the frontcourt. Robert Williams just came back from injury, too, while Toumani Camara has at least five rebounds in 12 of his past 13 games.

There are simply too many mouths to feed on the glass, and Avdija isn’t asserting himself.

In his past nine matchups, Avdija has averaged 4.9 rebounds. He’s cashed this under in 8/9 games in that span.

Avdija had five rebounds vs. Charlotte on Jan. 24, and that was with both Ayton and Williams out.

On the season, Avdija has hit this under in 34 of 53 games (64.2%).

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 22: Bet on LeBron, Durant to fill the net

LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the headliners in my Saturday NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Both LeBron and KD are lighting it up as scorers right now, and I expect that to continue. I’m also bullish on Alperen Sengun in a plus matchup against the Utah Jazz.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 22.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Durant 3+ threes (-122)

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Given that Durant gets most of his buckets in the mid-range, his stellar 3-point shooting often goes overlooked.

As far as prop markets go, Durant’s problem is volume — not efficiency. When he puts up enough 3s, plenty are bound to go in.

Since 2020-21, Durant has a 40.9 3PT% on 5.4 attempts. He’s averaged 40.0 3PT% or better in four of those five seasons.

In 125 games with the Suns, Durant has averaged 2.3 made 3s on 41.8 3PT%.

In order to feel good about Durant hitting this milestone, you need to see him matched up with a team that allows a lot of 3s. I trust his efficiency enough that I’m just looking for a volume-based matchup.

Enter the Chicago Bulls.

Thanks in part to their fast-paced play, the Bulls allow the second-most 3s in the NBA (39.7/game).

In fairness to the Bulls, they also allow the third-lowest opponent 3PT% (34.4). But I’ll take that trade-off since I’m just looking for Durant to get shots up.

Durant should also be encouraged to heave deep shots based on how well it’s going right now. In his past 10 games, Durant is shooting 48.5% beyond the arc and averaging 3.3 makes.

Key stat: Durant has 3+ threes in 13 of 22 home games this season.

Quick picks

Sengun 20+ points (-124): Sengun has seen starter’s minutes in two previous matchups against the Jazz, and he put in some solid work against them both times.

Jan. 5, 2023: 20 points on 7-of-14 shooting (32 min)
Jan. 20, 2024: 37 points on 15-of-26 shooting (42 min)

Sengun’s scoring average this season (18.9 PPG) isn’t quite at this milestone. But I’m a fan of the matchup, so a slight uptick in production is well within reach.

Utah allows 23.8 PPG to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, which is the sixth-highest total in the NBA.

Excluding a recent game that he left early due to injury, Sengun has averaged 20.2 points since Jan. 7.

LeBron 25+ points (-132): Eventually, Luka Doncic will regain his shooting stroke and this scoring milestone will be more difficult for LeBron to obtain.

But right now, with Doncic still ramping up after a few underwhelming games in Lakers colours, LeBron is worth a play at this price.

The King has dropped 40-plus points twice already this month. And he’s cashed this prop in nine of his past 15 games.

The Denver Nuggets are a strong team, but they don’t excel defensively (17th in defensive rating). LeBron has 25-plus points in seven of eight games against Denver since last February.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks Feb. 21: Back Jalen Green and Anthony Edwards

The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday as both teams return from the all-star break.

The pregame narrative: Fred VanVleet has been ruled out, which has me eyeing Jalen Green’s assist total. I will also back Anthony Edwards to clear his 3-point line.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

Best bet: Green over 3.5 assists (-150)

This seems too good to pass up, even with juiced odds.

Green is a scorer first and passer second, but he has dished the ball well when VanVleet is sidelined. Check out his stats in his last eight games without the point guard:

4.3 assists/game
3+ assists seven times
4+ assists six times
5+ assists five times

That’s a super reliable floor to work with, and it gives me confidence he’ll be around this number regardless of the opponent.

The Timberwolves are a stingy defensive team that allows the fifth-fewest assists per game. But Green racked up five helpers against them on Feb. 6 (without VanVleet), and I like his chances of doing so again.

Key stat: Green has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the T-Wolves while averaging 5.2 assists.

Quick pick

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-125): I am a big fan of Edwards and know he’s going to put us in a good position to cash this wager.

Edwards is averaging 4.1 threes per game on 10.1 attempts (41.4%).
In February, those numbers are up to 4.8 threes per game on 13.3 attempts (36.3%).
He’s hit 3+ threes in eight straight games, cashing this bet five times.

On the season, Ant Man is 35-19 against this line (65.8%). That exceeds the 58.5% implied probability of this wager.

He’s played Houston three times this year and cleared this line twice while shooting 3-for-12 from deep in the outlier.

Picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET 02/21/2025.

Heat vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 21: Bet on Quickley and Herro in +285 wager

The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat return from the all-star break for a Friday night matchup at Scotiabank Arena.

The pregame narrative: Miami entered the break with four straight losses and Toronto is mostly healthy, which has me looking to back the hosts on an alternate spread. Prop bets on Immanuel Quickley and Tyler Herro round out this +285 wager.

Check out my Heat vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 21.

Heat vs. Raptors predictions

Parlay: Raptors +5.5 | Quickley 6+ assists | Herro 3+ threes (+285)

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Raptors +5.5 (-162): It’s been a rarity for Toronto to field a fully-healthy lineup this season and that won’t change on Friday with Jakob Poeltl sidelined.

Still, a starting five of Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jonathan Mogbo is competitive.

The Heat have a Jimmy Butler-sized hole in their starting lineup that Andrew Wiggins can’t fill.

They’re 0-4 since trading Butler away and have lost six of their last eight. In that span, they’ve only picked up wins against the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers and Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs.

Toronto is an impressive 16-8-1 ATS as a home underdog this year and I like its chances of winning this game outright.

SGP legs

Quickley 6+ assists (-112): Quickley should be in full facilitation mode this evening.

The Heat allow the fourth-fewest points and fifth-most assists to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros. Barnes and Barrett are both capable scorers and I expect IQ to dish them the rock.

He hasn’t played a ton this season but is averaging 5.3 assists this month, clearing this mark in two of six games while landing on five assists twice.

In a plus matchup, he should have an above-average outing.

Herro 3+ threes (-286): Adding Herro to hit three 3s is a nice leg for any Heat SGP. The sharpshooting guard’s best scoring year has been buoyed by an elite perimeter game.

Herro is averaging 3.7 threes on 9.7 attempts per night (both career-highs).
He’s hit 3+ threes in 37/51 starts (72.5%).

Herro has hit four-plus 3s in all three games against the Raptors this season while shooting a combined 48.2% from beyond the arc.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 02/21/2025

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks Feb. 21: Back Jalen Green and Anthony Edwards

The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday as both teams return from the all-star break.

The pregame narrative: Fred VanVleet has been ruled out, which has me eyeing Jalen Green‘s assist total. I will also back Anthony Edwards to clear his 3-point line even with unsavoury odds.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

Best bet: Green over 3.5 assists (-118)

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This seems too good to pass up.

Green is a scorer first and passer second, but he has dished the ball well when VanVleet is sidelined. Check out his stats in his last eight games without the point guard:

4.3 assists/game
3+ assists seven times
4+ assists six times
5+ assists five times

That’s a super reliable floor to work with, and it gives me confidence he’ll be around this number regardless of the opponent.

The Timberwolves are a stingy defensive team that allows the fifth-fewest assists per game. But Green racked up five helpers against them on Feb. 6 (without VanVleet), and I like his chances of doing so again.

Key stat: Green has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the T-Wolves while averaging 5.2 assists.

Quick pick

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-141): Am I in love with these odds? No. But I am a big fan of Edwards and know he’s going to put us in a good position to cash this wager.

Edwards is averaging 4.1 threes per game on 10.1 attempts (41.4%).
In February, those numbers are up to 4.8 threes per game on 13.3 attempts (36.3%).
He’s hit 3+ threes in eight straight games, cashing this bet five times.

On the season, Ant Man is 35-19 against this line (65.8%). That exceeds the 58.5% implied probability of this wager.

He’s played Houston three times this year and cleared this line twice while shooting 3-for-12 from deep in the outlier.

Picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET 02/21/2025.

Warriors vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Feb. 21: Jimmy Butler, Golden State should come out on top

In Friday’s NBA nightcap, the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors in a Bay Area battle.

The pregame narrative: After a pair of head-to-head wins for Sacramento last month, I expect Golden State to exact some revenge tonight. This is a star-studded SGP, featuring Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Domantas Sabonis.

Check out my Warriors vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 21.

Warriors vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Warriors ML | Butler 30+ PRA | Sabonis 35+ PRA | Curry 4+ threes (+410)

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Warriors moneyline (-125): Golden State and Sacramento have identical 28-27 records right now. But the vibes aren’t the same, and neither are the teams’ directions.

The Warriors added Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, and then Draymond Green called his shot during all-star weekend and said they’re going to win the championship.

The Kings traded away De’Aaron Fox at the deadline and now have -455 odds to miss the playoffs.

Sacramento is 2-0 against Golden State this year, and both games took place just last month. But a lot has changed since then.

In their past 10 games, respectively, the Warriors’ net rating (+2.3) far exceeds the Kings’ net rating (-5.3).

SGP legs

Butler 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-225): We’re seeing a motivated Butler right now, and that’s a dangerous thing for whichever team is on the opposing side.

After multiple suspensions and plenty of trade-related awkwardness with the Miami Heat, Butler has found a home with the Warriors. That marriage is still in the honeymoon phase, but so far it’s working out:

4 games
21.3 PPG
7.0 RPG
5.3 APG
30+ PRA in 4/4

Butler’s shooting efficiency has actually been rough since he joined Golden State, but that’s been offset by his ability to get to the free throw line.

If he needs to lean on that crutch again, the Kings profile as a solid team to exploit. They allow the 11th-most free throw attempts per game (22.7).

Butler already has 40 FTA so far as a Warrior.

Sabonis 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-245): Sabonis’ high floor as a scorer and nuclear capability as a rebounder means this milestone is always within reach.

Over his past 20 games, Sabonis has averaged 42.7 PRA and cashed this bet 17 times.

That includes a pair of matchups against the Warriors, who he’s now hit this milestone against in four consecutive games.

Sabonis is poised for a third consecutive rebounding title, and he matched a season-best with 28 boards last time out.

He’s also Sacramento’s leading passer (6.2 APG) and averages north of 20 points per night.

Curry 4+ threes (-295): Am I loving this amount of juice on Curry to can four 3s? No, but based on his 3-point volume heading into the all-star break I’m willing to get on board.

Look at what Curry did from beyond the arc in his final seven games before the break:

5.3 3PM
15.4 3PA
12+ attempted 3s in 7/7 games
4+ made 3s in 6/7 games

Curry’s 3-point efficiency in that stretch (34.3%) isn’t amazing, but it doesn’t have to be. If he’s putting up a dozen 3s, I’ll take this bet any day.

The Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% in the league (37.7).

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 21: Back Zion Williamson, fade De’Aaron Fox on Friday

Zion Williamson headlines Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I expect the big man to feast as the New Orleans Pelicans take on an injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks squad. Elsewhere, fade De’Aaron Fox and back Darius Garland.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 21.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Williamson over 31.5 points and rebounds (-118)

This is shaping up to be a monster night for Zion.

The Mavericks, who are missing Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford, are slated to start 6-foot-6 P.J. Washington at centre, according to RotoWire.

It’s also worth noting that New Orleans’ standout rookie centre, Yves Missi, is questionable with a knee injury.

Williamson is averaging 24.4 points and 7.4 rebounds, which puts him right in line with this total.

He should be able to feast on the glass and score at will against a team missing all of its size and defensive prowess.

The Mavericks have struggled to contain power forwards to begin with this season, and are ceding the ninth-most points and 11th-most rebounds per game to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Williamson has cleared this line in seven of his last nine games while averaging 27.1 points and 7.2 rebounds.

Quick picks

Fox under 24.5 points (-118): Fox is a solid scorer and will have to take the reins in San Antonio with Victor Wembanyama out for the season. With that said, I believe this is a prime fade spot.

Fox is 3-12 against this line in his last 15 games (2-4 since joining SAS).
He narrowly cleared this mark with 26 points last night but has struggled on back-to-backs this season, averaging 22.2 points on 41.9% shooting (nine-game sample).

The Spurs are playing a Detroit Pistons squad allowing the ninth-fewest PPG to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. All signs are pointing to a dud.

Garland over 2.5 threes (-143): You know who’s not fazed by back-to-backs? Garland. Cleveland’s point guard is averaging 24.6 PPG while shooting 50.9% on zero rest this season (nine-game sample).

He’s cleared this mark in four of his last five back-to-backs and 11 of his last 15 games overall.

Garland was a member of this year’s 3-point contest and is about as dangerous as it gets from deep, canning 3.0 threes per game on 42.9% shooting.

And tonight, he gets to play a New York Knicks team with the worst 3-point defence in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:59 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.