LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the headliners in my Saturday NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Both LeBron and KD are lighting it up as scorers right now, and I expect that to continue. I’m also bullish on Alperen Sengun in a plus matchup against the Utah Jazz.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 22.
Best NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 threes (-118)
Given that Durant gets most of his buckets in the mid-range, his stellar 3-point shooting often goes overlooked.
As far as prop markets go, Durant’s problem is volume — not efficiency. When he puts up enough 3s, plenty are bound to go in.
- Since 2020-21, Durant has a 40.9 3PT% on 5.4 attempts. He’s averaged 40.0 3PT% or better in four of those five seasons.
- In 125 games with the Suns, Durant has averaged 2.3 made 3s on 41.8 3PT%.
In order to feel good about Durant hitting this milestone, you need to see him matched up with a team that allows a lot of 3s. I trust his efficiency enough that I’m just looking for a volume-based matchup.
Enter the Chicago Bulls.
Thanks in part to their fast-paced play, the Bulls allow the second-most 3s in the NBA (39.7/game).
In fairness to the Bulls, they also allow the third-lowest opponent 3PT% (34.4). But I’ll take that trade-off since I’m just looking for Durant to get shots up.
Durant should also be encouraged to heave deep shots based on how well it’s going right now. In his past 10 games, Durant is shooting 48.5% beyond the arc and averaging 3.3 makes.
Key stat: Durant has 3+ threes in 13 of 22 home games this season.
Quick picks
Sengun over 20.5 points (-112): Sengun has seen starter’s minutes in two previous matchups against the Jazz, and he put in some solid work against them both times.
- Jan. 5, 2023: 20 points on 7-of-14 shooting (32 min)
- Jan. 20, 2024: 37 points on 15-of-26 shooting (42 min)
Sengun’s scoring average this season (18.9 PPG) isn’t quite at this mark. But I’m a fan of the matchup, so a slight uptick in production is well within reach.
Utah allows 23.8 PPG to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, which is the sixth-highest total in the NBA.
Excluding a recent game that he left early due to injury, Sengun has averaged 20.2 points since Jan. 7.
LeBron over 24.5 points (-130): Eventually, Luka Doncic will regain his shooting stroke and this scoring milestone will be more difficult for LeBron to obtain.
But right now, with Doncic still ramping up after a few underwhelming games in Lakers colours, LeBron is worth a play at this price.
The King has dropped 40-plus points twice already this month. And he’s cashed this prop in nine of his past 15 games.
The Denver Nuggets are a strong team, but they don’t excel defensively (17th in defensive rating). LeBron has 25-plus points in seven of eight games against Denver since last February.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 02/22/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.