The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks for a Sunday matinee.
The pregame narrative: Jimmy Butler should feast against an injury-riddled Mavericks team while Klay Thompson is a good bet to can four triples at plus money.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks for Feb. 23.
Mavericks vs. Warriors prop picks
Best bet: Butler over 27.5 points and rebounds (-108)
On Friday I backed Zion Williamson to clear his 36.5 PRA line against the Mavericks — and he blew by it in just 29 minutes of playing time.
I want to key in on Butler for a lot of the same reasons.
The veteran is slotted at the power forward position in an undersized Warriors lineup. That could typically be viewed as a problem for rebounding totals but he’s going up against a Mavericks team decimated by injuries.
The following players are out for Sunday’s game:
- Anthony Davis
- Daniel Gafford
- Derrick Lively
Dallas’ projected centre, according to RotoWire, is 6-foot-7 Kessler Edwards, who is averaging 4.8 points and 4.3 rebounds tonight.
The Mavs are even more undersized than the Warriors and already struggled to defend power forwards to begin with.
Dallas is allowing the 10th-most points and 13th-most rebounds per game to PFs, according to Fantasy Pros
Key stat: Since joining the Warriors, Butler is 2-3 against this line while also landing on exactly 27 points/rebounds twice. He had 21 points and nine rebounds against the Mavs on Feb. 12.
Quick pick
Thompson over 3.5 threes (+140): I wouldn’t call this a revenge game because Thompson and the Warriors seem to be on amicable terms.
But it sure seems like the former Splash Brother loves to stick it to his old squad.
- Thompson is averaging 22.7 points over three games against the Warriors this season.
- He’s made 5+ threes in each contest while shooting a combined 48.6% from deep.
Scoring on the interior isn’t really an option for Dallas right now and Thompson is still a premier perimeter player, even at 35 years old.
He’s cleared this mark in three straight games and five of his last 10.
Picks made at 11:17 a.m. ET 02/23/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.