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Raptors vs. Bulls prop picks Feb. 28: Back Josh Giddey, Gradey Dick on Friday

I’m backing a pair of guards to produce when the Chicago Bulls host the Toronto Raptors on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Chicago and Toronto are in tank mode, but someone has to fill the basket. Josh Giddey and Gradey Dick are poised for big nights, so take the over on their point and 3-point totals, respectively.

Check out my Raptors vs. Bulls prop picks for Feb. 28.

Raptors vs. Bulls prop picks

Best bet: Giddey over 16.5 points (-127)

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This has all the makings of a smash play.

Giddey has been on a heater in February, which directly coincides with Zach LaVine’s departure to the Sacramento Kings. Check out his stats on a per-game basis during and before this month:

February stats (10 games): 19.9 points, 13.1 FGA, 51.1 FG%, 56.0 3PT%

Pre-February stats (45 games): 11.5 points, 10.0 FGA, 44.4 FG%, 32.7 3PT%

The point guard is playing more, shooting more and making more shots. You love to see it.

Giddey has been red-hot over his last four games, averaging 24.3 PPG on 57.9% shooting. He’s an incredible 14-for-18 from deep in that span.

Some shooting regression is bound to happen but I don’t think it’ll come against the Raptors.

Toronto has the seventh-worst defensive rating in the NBA and is allowing the sixth-most PPG to point guards over the last 30 days, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Giddey is 8-2 against this line in February.

Quick pick

Dick over 2.5 threes (+160): Scottie Barnes — who missed Wednesday’s game against the Indiana Pacers — is questionable with a hip injury. If I were running the Raptors, he’d be sitting out as long as possible.

The swingman is attempting 4.5 threes per game, so his absence would be a boon for Dick’s volume.

But even if Barnes is in the lineup, I’m still keen on backing Dick at this price.

Toronto’s shooting guard has only cleared this line once in four games since the all-star break. But he’s had exactly two 3s in the other three games and attempted seven 3-pointers in each of the last two outings (going 2-for-7 in both).

Chicago has really struggled to defend the deep ball lately, so this is a matchup Dick can exploit.

Opponents are shooting 37.9% against the Bulls from beyond the arc in February (fifth-highest in the NBA).
Chicago is allowing the ninth-most 3s per game (3.48) to shooting guards over the last 30 days.

Dick has played the Bulls twice this season, going 3-for-9 from deep on Dec. 16 and 2-of-7 from deep on Jan. 31.

Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET 02/28/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 28: Look for Haliburton, Holmgren and Leonard to shine

One guard and two forwards are featured in Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Tyrese Haliburton draws a nice matchup against the Miami Heat and should be a threat to tally 10-plus assists. I expect Chet Holmgren and Kawhi Leonard to make their mark as scorers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 28.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Holmgren over 17.5 points (+100)

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The Oklahoma City Thunder are at their best when Holmgren is healthy, stretching the floor as a 7-footer with an enviable shooting stroke.

And that’s what we’re seeing right now.

After two and a half months on the shelf with a hip fracture, the second-year big man returned on Feb. 7 and was brought along somewhat slowly.

He isn’t playing back-to-backs, and he’s only crested the 30-minute mark twice through six games. But his results in the past three games are very encouraging:

20.3 PPG
57.9 FG%
50.0 3PT%
84.6 FT%
18+ points in all 3 games

Tonight’s matchup between the Thunder and the Atlanta Hawks has a projected total of 242 points. It should be fast-paced, and Holmgren should have ample opportunities to build on this offensive rhythm.

I considered backing Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-121) as my best bet, partially because the Hawks allow the fifth-most 3s per game. But given that Holmgren hasn’t attempted more than five 3s in any post-injury game, this felt a bit safer.

With a scoring touch from all over the floor, this is a number Holmgren should be able to clear.

Key stat: In his lone matchup against the Hawks this season, on Oct. 27, Holmgren scored 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting (6-for-8 from the free-throw line).

Best NBA picks

Haliburton 10+ assists (-103): After back-to-back years averaging double-digit assists, Haliburton has taken a step back this season.

Still, his 8.7 APG ranks fourth in the NBA, and he’s cranked up the passing volume lately.

In his past five games, Haliburton has averaged 10.8 assists while logging 19.6 potential assists per game (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot).

Last month, in his most recent matchup against the Heat, Haliburton racked up 15 assists.

Dating back to February 2023, Haliburton has cashed this prop in four of six matchups with Miami.

The Heat allow the fifth-most assists per game to opposing point guards (9.57), per Betting Pros.

Leonard over 1.5 threes (-129): Leonard has long been an accomplished 3-point shooter, it’s just that he doesn’t always take a bunch of shots from outside.

But he’s in enough of a groove right now that I’m looking to back him.

In his past five games, Leonard has shot 12-for-25 (48.0%) from beyond the arc.

He has 2+ threes in 4 of 5 games … and the outlier was a game where he didn’t attempt any 3s.

It’s too soon to have a full handle on the Los Angeles Lakers’ defensive profile with Luka Doncic, but the early returns show a team willing to yield more 3s to provide support around the rim.

Since Doncic’s first game as a Laker on Feb. 10, the team has allowed the third-most attempted 3s per game in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 02/28/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 27: Bet on Edwards and Hayes to clear their point totals

Thursday’s NBA nightcap is a good one, as the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has been rolling since acquiring Luka Doncic, while Minnesota is fighting to get out of the Western Conference play-in picture. I’m turning to one player from each team — Anthony Edwards and Jaxson Hayes — to clear their point totals.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 27.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Edwards over 27.5 points (-118)

Edwards is listed as questionable with calf soreness per the NBA’s 11:30 a.m. injury report.

But I’m not worried about that. The Timberwolves begin a back-to-back tonight with a matchup against the Utah Jazz tomorrow, so all signs would point to Edward resting for Friday’s matchup instead.

And when the shooting guard is in the lineup, he’s been lights out. Check out his stats since the calendar turned to 2025:

31.0 points/game
22.2 FGA/game
28+ points in 17/25 games
30+ points in 13/25 games

Edwards is coming off a 17-point stinker against the Oklahoma City Thunder — who own the league’s best defensive rating — on Monday, but that was on the second leg of a back-to-back.

He scored 29 points against them the day prior and is averaging 28.0 PPG with two-plus days of rest this season.

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert are out, and Donte DiVincenzo (toe) is questionable. Edwards should be taking the lion’s share of shots tonight.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 33.5 points across his last eight games, clearing this line six times.

Quick pick

Hayes over 6.5 points (-110): Hayes has hit the jackpot, falling backwards into Los Angeles’ starting centre spot after Los Angeles’ trade for Mark Williams “fell through.”

The No. 8 overall pick from 2019 didn’t pan out with the New Orleans Pelicans, but his responsibilities on the Lakers are simple: Clean the glass and catch lobs from Doncic and LeBron James.

Hayes hasn’t attempted a single 3-pointer since moving into the starting lineup on Jan. 30. In that span, he’s 7-4 against this line while shooting 78.0% from the field.

Minnesota’s interior defence is elite but that’s largely thanks to Gobert. With him sidelined, I love Hayes’ chances of clearing this mark as his minutes stay steady.

Picks made at 11:46 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 27: Fade Doncic, bet overs on Irving and Banchero

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are no longer teammates, but I’ve paired them up to be two of my three NBA prop targets for Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Doncic is a superstar, but he doesn’t look like it from 3-point range right now. I’m fading him while taking the over on Irving and Paolo Banchero‘s point totals.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 27.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Irving over 27.5 points (-130)

Irving almost willed the Dallas Mavericks to a win over the Los Angeles Lakers the other night, and he must remain the offensive focal point of this Doncic-less team.

Doncic got hurt on Christmas Day and never played again for the Mavs. From that game onward, Irving has paced the team in per-game rates for minutes, points, shots, attempted 3s and free throws.

Most recently, the veteran guard has really dazzled as a scorer. Look at his past nine matchups for Dallas:

28.1 PPG
30+ points in 5 of 9
37.8 3PT%
94.4 FT%

Irving dropped 35 points against the Lakers on Tuesday. He’s now hit the 30-point milestone in four of his past five.

Tonight, Irving faces a Charlotte Hornets squad at the end of an excruciatingly long road trip. There was an all-star break in between, mind you, but Charlotte is about to play its ninth consecutive road game.

On the season, the Hornets are 5-23 on the road with a 116.2 defensive rating. That’s the seventh-worst defensive rating among all road teams.

Irving already toasted Charlotte once without Doncic this season, and I expect him to do it again.

Key stat: On Jan. 20, Irving had 33 points on a game-high 24 shots against the Hornets in Charlotte.

Best NBA picks

Doncic under 3.5 threes (-150): I cashed this bet at plus money in Tuesday’s Mavericks/Lakers game, and unfortunately the price has gone up.

Still, based on his 3-point shooting struggles lately, this extra juice isn’t keeping me away.

Doncic went 1-for-7 beyond the arc last time out.

He’s shooting 26.9% from 3-point range over his past seven games, cashing this under six times.

With Dallas, Doncic went under 3.5 threes in both matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who he’ll face tonight.

Minnesota’s defence ranks sixth in both 3-point percentage (35.1%) and attempted 3s (36.1/game).

Banchero over 23.5 points (-112): Banchero has gone over 23.5 points in four of his past six games despite posting a 39.3 FG% in that span.

How? By being a good old-fashioned volume shooter.

Banchero has the sixth-highest usage rate in the NBA (32.6%). He also attempts 32.1% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, which is the fourth-highest rate in the whole league.

When the Orlando Magic faced the Golden State Warriors earlier this month, Banchero finished with just 18 points despite chucking a game-high 24 shots.

If he keeps up that kind of volume — and his season-long numbers say he can — this point total will always be attainable.

Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Pelicans vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Feb. 27: Bet on Devin Booker, Phoenix to excel at home

The slumping Phoenix Suns look to right the ship on Thursday night against the New Orleans Pelicans.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix has been shaky lately but really should win at home. This +260 SGP also includes prop overs for Devin Booker and Trey Murphy.

Check out my Pelicans vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 27.

Pelicans vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Suns ML | Booker over 7.5 assists | Murphy 3+ threes (+260)

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Suns moneyline (-295): The Pelicans have won three of their past four games, but two of those were against the Victor Wembanyama-less Spurs.

More notably, none of those wins came on the road.

New Orleans has the worst road record in the NBA (4-24). The team hasn’t won as a visitor since Jan. 14 (at Chicago), losing eight road games since.

Phoenix is at serious risk of missing out on the postseason, but it typically still gets the job done at home.

When playing inside PHX Arena, the Suns are 16-11 (compared to 11-20 on the road). They’ve won five of their past six games as home favourites.

SGP legs

Booker over 7.5 assists (-113): I’m not always comfortable backing Booker at this number, given that he’s averaging 6.8 assists this year.

But his recent production has been very encouraging, and he’s also got a great matchup tonight.

Booker has 8+ assists in 6 of his past 7 games.

In that span, he’s posted 17.0 potential assists per game, per NBA.com. Potential assists are any passes that lead directly to a shot, so he’s setting his teammates up a ton.

The Pelicans allow the sixth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.38/game), as well as fourth-most assists overall (28.7/game).

Murphy 3+ threes (-230): With a healthy average of 8.5 attempted 3s per game, Murphy tends to give himself a chance to cash this milestone on a nightly basis.

Right now, he’s matching his high volume with impressive efficiency, too.

In his past 11 games, Murphy has …

3.8 makes/game
8.6 attempts/game
44.2 3PT%
3+ threes in 8 of 11

The talented small forward went 3-for-6 from deep against the Suns earlier this season. Phoenix is a solid matchup, as the team allows the eighth-most 3s per game (13.9).

Picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET 02/27/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks Feb. 27: Bet on Edwards and Hayes to clear their point totals

Thursday’s NBA nightcap is a good one, as the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has been rolling since acquiring Luka Doncic, while Minnesota is fighting to get out of the Western Conference play-in picture. I’m turning to one player from each team — Anthony Edwards and Jaxson Hayes — to clear their point totals.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks for Feb. 27.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers prop picks

Best bet: Edwards over 27.5 points (-130)

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Edwards is listed as questionable with calf soreness per the NBA’s 11:30 a.m. injury report.

But I’m not worried about that. The Timberwolves begin a back-to-back tonight with a matchup against the Utah Jazz tomorrow, so all signs would point to Edward resting for Friday’s matchup instead.

And when the shooting guard is in the lineup, he’s been lights out. Check out his stats since the calendar turned to 2025:

31.0 points/game
22.2 FGA/game
28+ points in 17/25 games
30+ points in 13/25 games

Edwards is coming off a 17-point stinker against the Oklahoma City Thunder — who own the league’s best defensive rating — on Monday, but that was on the second leg of a back-to-back.

He scored 29 points against them the day prior and is averaging 28.0 PPG with two-plus days of rest this season.

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert are out, and Donte DiVincenzo (toe) is questionable. Edwards should be taking the lion’s share of shots tonight.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 33.5 points across his last eight games, clearing this line six times.

Quick pick

Hayes over 6.5 points (+100): Hayes has hit the jackpot, falling backwards into Los Angeles’ starting centre spot after Los Angeles’ trade for Mark Williams “fell through.”

The No. 8 overall pick from 2019 didn’t pan out with the New Orleans Pelicans, but his responsibilities on the Lakers are simple: Clean the glass and catch lobs from Doncic and LeBron James.

Hayes hasn’t attempted a single 3-pointer since moving into the starting lineup on Jan. 30. In that span, he’s 7-4 against this line while shooting 78.0% from the field.

Minnesota’s interior defence is elite but that’s largely thanks to Gobert. With him sidelined, I love Hayes’ chances of clearing this mark as his minutes stay steady.

Picks made at 11:46 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Nuggets vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions Feb. 27: Bet on Milwaukee as home underdogs, Murray to score at +310

Thursday’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks has it all.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are rolling, with MVP winners Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic leading the charge. I’m teasing up Milwaukee as home underdogs and taking the under on a massively teased-up game total. Finally, bet on Jamal Murray to fill the basket.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 27.

Nuggets vs. Bucks predictions

Parlay: Bucks +5.5 | Under 250.5 points | Murray 20+ points (+310)

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Bucks +5.5 (-200): Milwaukee has been a very streaky team this season and it looks like its about to catch a heater.

The Bucks have won four of their last five games with a three-point loss to the Houston Rockets mixed in. Overall, they’ve covered a +5.5 spread in eight of their last nine contests.

On the season, Doc Rivers’ squad is an impressive 19-9 at home.

Denver is 18-11 on the road and has won 10 of its last 11. But the Nuggets have beaten up on some bad teams in that stretch (Pelicans twice, Trail Blazers twice, Hornets twice, Suns, 76ers).

The Bucks are in a good spot to win this one outright.

SGP legs

Under 250.5 points (-345): Neither team is playing elite defence right now, but this is a huge number.

Denver has gone under this number in seven of its last 10 games with the outliers being a pair of matchups against the Portland Trail Blazers and a game against the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Nuggets averaged 140.6 points in those three games. The Bucks own the ninth-best defensive rating at home, so I can’t picture that happening again.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, has gone under this mark in nine of its last 10 games with an average of 222.3 points scored.

The under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams — and 4-0 in the last four — with only one game exceeding 240 points (and that was back in 2020).

Murray 20+ points (-177): Targeting point guards against the Bucks has been a tried and true strategy since Damian Lillard was acquired.

Check out how the team has defended the position since the 2023-24 season, with stats provided by Fantasy Pros.

2023-24: 3rd-most points to PGs (25.89)
2024-25: Most points to PGs (26.0)

Murray has played Milwaukee twice since the Lillard acquisition. He dropped 35 points in the first outing on 13-of-22 shooting (59.1%) and had just three points in the next game — but Murray had to exit early due to shin splints while only taking five shots.

Denver’s point guard is on a nice little heater this month, averaging 24.6 PPG on 54.6% shooting. He’s scored 30-plus points in three of his last six games.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 27: Fade Doncic, bet overs on Irving and Banchero

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are no longer teammates, but I’ve paired them up to be two of my three NBA prop targets for Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Doncic is a superstar, but he doesn’t look like it from 3-point range right now. I’m fading him while taking the over on Irving and Paolo Banchero‘s point totals.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 27.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Irving over 27.5 points (-109)

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Irving almost willed the Dallas Mavericks to a win over the Los Angeles Lakers the other night, and he must remain the offensive focal point of this Doncic-less team.

Doncic got hurt on Christmas Day and never played again for the Mavs. From that game onward, Irving has paced the team in per-game rates for minutes, points, shots, attempted 3s and free throws.

Most recently, the veteran guard has really dazzled as a scorer. Look at his past nine matchups for Dallas:

28.1 PPG
30+ points in 5 of 9
37.8 3PT%
94.4 FT%

Irving dropped 35 points against the Lakers on Tuesday. He’s now hit the 30-point milestone in four of his past five.

Tonight, Irving faces a Charlotte Hornets squad at the end of an excruciatingly long road trip. There was an all-star break in between, mind you, but Charlotte is about to play its ninth consecutive road game.

On the season, the Hornets are 5-23 on the road with a 116.2 defensive rating. That’s the seventh-worst defensive rating among all road teams.

Irving already toasted Charlotte once without Doncic this season, and I expect him to do it again.

Key stat: On Jan. 20, Irving had 33 points on a game-high 24 shots against the Hornets in Charlotte.

Best NBA picks

Doncic under 3.5 threes (-132): I cashed this bet at plus money in Tuesday’s Mavericks/Lakers game, and unfortunately the price has gone up.

Still, based on his 3-point shooting struggles lately, this extra juice isn’t keeping me away.

Doncic went 1-for-7 beyond the arc last time out.

He’s shooting 26.9% from 3-point range over his past seven games, cashing this under six times.

With Dallas, Doncic went under 3.5 threes in both matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who he’ll face tonight.

Minnesota’s defence ranks sixth in both 3-point percentage (35.1%) and attempted 3s (36.1/game).

Banchero over 23.5 points (-124): Banchero has gone over 23.5 points in four of his past six games despite posting a 39.3 FG% in that span.

How? By being a good old-fashioned volume shooter.

Banchero has the sixth-highest usage rate in the NBA (32.6%). He also attempts 32.1% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, which is the fourth-highest rate in the whole league.

When the Orlando Magic faced the Golden State Warriors earlier this month, Banchero finished with just 18 points despite chucking a game-high 24 shots.

If he keeps up that kind of volume — and his season-long numbers say he can — this point total will always be attainable.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 26: Expect scoring from Paul George, DeMar DeRozan and Ivica Zubac

Three prop picks are in play for Wednesday’s nine-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Veterans Paul George and DeMar DeRozan are tonight’s top targets. I also have a recommendation on Ivica Zubac.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 26.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: George over 16.5 points (-125)

Star centre Joel Embiid is out, likely for some time. Check out how George has fared against this line with and without Embiid in the lineup (per StatMuse):

With Embiid: 4-14 (14.2 PPG)
Without Embiid: 10-10 (18.1 PPG)

George’s first year with the Philadelphia 76ers has been a disaster. His scoring output hasn’t been this low since his sophomore season (2011-12).

A recent tendon injury to his finger has limited George and forced him to play with a splint. He was injured earlier in the season, too.

That doesn’t let him off the hook completely, but it does help explain his lack of production.

George said the all-star break provided some much-needed rest and he’s responded with 15-plus points in three straight games.

It’s hard to celebrate that for a player of George’s calibre, but it’s baby steps considering how badly his month started.

The nine-time all-star averaged 10.2 points through his first five games of February.

George is moving in the right direction and I like that to continue tonight with Embiid out.

Key stat: George has topped 25 points in both meetings against the New York Knicks, who have done a poor job defending wing players.

Best NBA picks

DeRozan over 20.5 points (-108): Sticking with scoring props, I’m taking the over on a reasonable DeRozan line.

The risk here is blowout potential against the depleted Utah Jazz, who are last in the Western Conference. But there’s plenty to like about this matchup.

Utah ranks No. 28 in the NBA in opponent points per game.

The Jazz get shredded by wings, allowing the fourth-most points to small forwards and second most to shooting guards (per Betting Pros).

DeRozan is averaging 24.8 points in nine games since De’Aaron Fox was traded to the San Antonio Spurs.

The veteran, known more for his midrange game and ability from the line, has been propping up his point totals with his outside shot.

DeRozan has canned multiple triples in half of his games this month.

Zubac over 15.5 points (-134): If Kawhi Leonard is humming alongside guards James Harden and Norman Powell, it’s going to make Zubac’s nightly scoring projection difficult.

It’s easier to see the upside with one of them out. That’s the case tonight in a plus matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

Powell has missed three straight games and is out Wednesday. Zubac has averaged 18.3 points over those contests, hitting the 20-point mark twice.

He’s 8-3 against this number without Powell this season. Expect the Los Angeles Clippers’ big man to produce.

The Bulls rank last in the NBA in points allowed in the paint.

Zubac is fourth in paint touches per game and second in field goal attempts in the paint, per NBA.com.

Chicago allows the second-most points to centres.

Picks made at 2:04 p.m. ET on 02/26/2025.

Kings vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions Feb. 26: Back LaVine to stay hot in +295 play

The Sacramento Kings visit a banged-up Utah Jazz team on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Because of the extensive list of injuries on Utah’s side, I’ll buy a few points and take Sacramento to cover a teased-down spread. Prop picks on Zach LaVine and Isaiah Collier round out this +295 SGP.

Check out my Kings vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 26.

Kings vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Kings -6.5 | LaVine over 22.5 points | Collier 8+ assists (+295)

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Kings -6.5 (-205): Utah’s injury report is crowded:

Lauri Markkanen (out)
John Collins (out)
Collin Sexton (out)
Walker Kessler (questionable)

That’s not a good look for the Western Conference’s worst team unless you’re cheering for a solid tank job.

The Jazz have been riding high at home, covering this spread in their last eight games at Delta Center. But a majority of that time was with a healthy lineup.

Sacramento just trounced the Charlotte Hornets, 130-88, and I believe it can build off that performance and easily handle another one of the NBA’s bottom feeders.

SGP legs

LaVine over 22.5 points (-165): The dynamic guard is coming off his best game as a King. On Feb. 24, he scored 42 points on 16-of-19 shooting.

Two games before that, he lit up the New Orleans Pelicans for 32 points. There’s obvious blowout potential here, but LaVine has been efficient enough to clear this modest mark in fewer minutes.

He went under this total in his first four games with Sacramento but has scored 23-plus in three of four since.

On top of that, the Jazz are a disaster on defence. They have the worst defensive rating in the NBA and allow the second-most points to shooting guards (23.9), per Fantasy Pros.

Collier 8+ assists (-200): This is a steep line for a rookie, but take a look at this:

Collier is averaging 8.5 assists in 24 games as a starter.

He leads all rookies by a wide margin in assists per game (6.0). Only one other rookie is even above 4.0 APG.

In February, Collier is 9-1 against this line, averaging 9.3 assists.

Additionally, the Kings allow the sixth-most APG to point guards (9.2).

With all the injuries for Utah, Collier should continue to play heavy minutes and have a high usage rate.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 02/26/2025.