Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are no longer teammates, but I’ve paired them up to be two of my three NBA prop targets for Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: Doncic is a superstar, but he doesn’t look like it from 3-point range right now. I’m fading him while taking the over on Irving and Paolo Banchero‘s point totals.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 27.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Irving over 27.5 points (-109)
Irving almost willed the Dallas Mavericks to a win over the Los Angeles Lakers the other night, and he must remain the offensive focal point of this Doncic-less team.
Doncic got hurt on Christmas Day and never played again for the Mavs. From that game onward, Irving has paced the team in per-game rates for minutes, points, shots, attempted 3s and free throws.
Most recently, the veteran guard has really dazzled as a scorer. Look at his past nine matchups for Dallas:
- 28.1 PPG
- 30+ points in 5 of 9
- 37.8 3PT%
- 94.4 FT%
Irving dropped 35 points against the Lakers on Tuesday. He’s now hit the 30-point milestone in four of his past five.
Tonight, Irving faces a Charlotte Hornets squad at the end of an excruciatingly long road trip. There was an all-star break in between, mind you, but Charlotte is about to play its ninth consecutive road game.
On the season, the Hornets are 5-23 on the road with a 116.2 defensive rating. That’s the seventh-worst defensive rating among all road teams.
Irving already toasted Charlotte once without Doncic this season, and I expect him to do it again.
Key stat: On Jan. 20, Irving had 33 points on a game-high 24 shots against the Hornets in Charlotte.
Best NBA picks
Doncic under 3.5 threes (-132): I cashed this bet at plus money in Tuesday’s Mavericks/Lakers game, and unfortunately the price has gone up.
Still, based on his 3-point shooting struggles lately, this extra juice isn’t keeping me away.
- Doncic went 1-for-7 beyond the arc last time out.
- He’s shooting 26.9% from 3-point range over his past seven games, cashing this under six times.
With Dallas, Doncic went under 3.5 threes in both matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who he’ll face tonight.
Minnesota’s defence ranks sixth in both 3-point percentage (35.1%) and attempted 3s (36.1/game).
Banchero over 23.5 points (-124): Banchero has gone over 23.5 points in four of his past six games despite posting a 39.3 FG% in that span.
How? By being a good old-fashioned volume shooter.
Banchero has the sixth-highest usage rate in the NBA (32.6%). He also attempts 32.1% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor, which is the fourth-highest rate in the whole league.
When the Orlando Magic faced the Golden State Warriors earlier this month, Banchero finished with just 18 points despite chucking a game-high 24 shots.
If he keeps up that kind of volume — and his season-long numbers say he can — this point total will always be attainable.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 02/27/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.