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Best NBA prop bets April 4: Look for Gilgeous-Alexander, Reaves to star on Friday

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Austin Reaves both have great opportunities to score in bunches on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: I like Reaves on a back-to-back, which is a situation he’s thrived in this season. SGA has excelled against pretty much everyone, and the Houston Rockets are no exception. Elsewhere, Donovan Mitchell is a worthy fade on his points prop.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 4.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Reaves over 2.5 threes (-154)

Reaves did his best Steph Curry impression last night, going 9-for-16 from beyond the arc in an exciting matchup against the Warriors.

I love this prop for Reaves, both because he’s shooting it well right now and because opportunities should come his way in the back-to-back setting.

Luka Doncic might take the night off after playing 37-plus minutes in six consecutive games. He’s rested in three of six back-to-backs since joining the Lakers.

LeBron James is unlikely to sit out, but his track record as a 3-point shooter is rough when playing on zero rest: 29.4 3PT%, 1.7 makes per game (9 games).

Reaves has only missed one of L.A.’s 11 back-to-backs this season. I could see him having a significant role against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Speaking of the Pelicans, they should provide a plus matchup for him. On a per-game basis, New Orleans allows the third-most made 3s (14.6) on the second-most attempts (40.0).

In his past 12 games, Reaves has cashed this bet eight times. He’s shooting 39.4 % from deep on 8.7 attempts in that span.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 2.7 threes in 10 games on zero rest this season.

Best NBA picks

Mitchell under 25.5 points (-106): Without Victor Wembanyama manning the floor, the San Antonio Spurs are an easier team to score against.

But I think that benefit is more directly tied to big men than to guards like Mitchell.

The Spurs allow the ninth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (24.0), according to Betting Pros.

Mitchell, who averages 24.0 PPG, finished with 25 points when he faced the Spurs last week. And that was without Evan Mobley in the lineup.

The Mobley-Jarrett Allen combo should be a force for Cleveland, and I don’t see Mitchell needing to do as much.

Mitchell has hit this under in eight of his past 11 games, averaging 22.1 PPG in that span.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 32.5 points (-112): As high as this line is, it actually sits a twinge below Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring average for the year (32.8 PPG).

And the Rockets have proven to be a desirable matchup for the runaway MVP favourite.

Check out what he’s done in seven games against the Rockets since the start of last season:

34.9 PPG
56.8 FG%
29+ points in 7 of 7
32+ points in 5 of 7

When the Rockets last saw him, Gilgeous-Alexander put up 51 points on 18-of-30 shooting.

Houston allows the third-most points to opposing PGs — as well as the second-fewest assists.

NBA prop picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 04/04/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 4: Look for Gilgeous-Alexander, Reaves to star on Friday

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Austin Reaves both have great opportunities to score in bunches on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: I like Reaves on a back-to-back, which is a situation he’s thrived in this season. SGA has excelled against pretty much everyone, and the Houston Rockets are no exception. Elsewhere, Donovan Mitchell is a worthy fade on his points prop.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 4.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Reaves over 2.5 threes (-125)

Embed: #112120

Reaves did his best Steph Curry impression last night, going 9-for-16 from beyond the arc in an exciting matchup against the Warriors.

I love this prop for Reaves, both because he’s shooting it well right now and because opportunities should come his way in the back-to-back setting.

Luka Doncic might take the night off after playing 37-plus minutes in six consecutive games. He’s rested in three of six back-to-backs since joining the Lakers.

LeBron James is unlikely to sit out, but his track record as a 3-point shooter is rough when playing on zero rest: 29.4 3PT%, 1.7 makes per game (9 games).

Reaves has only missed one of L.A.’s 11 back-to-backs this season. I could see him having a significant role against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Speaking of the Pelicans, they should provide a plus matchup for him. On a per-game basis, New Orleans allows the third-most made 3s (14.6) on the second-most attempts (40.0).

In his past 12 games, Reaves has cashed this bet eight times. He’s shooting 39.4 % from deep on 8.7 attempts in that span.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 2.7 threes in 10 games on zero rest this season.

Best NBA picks

Mitchell under 25.5 points (-108): Without Victor Wembanyama manning the floor, the San Antonio Spurs are an easier team to score against.

But I think that benefit is more directly tied to big men than to guards like Mitchell.

The Spurs allow the ninth-fewest points per game to opposing point guards (24.0), according to Betting Pros.

Mitchell, who averages 24.0 PPG, finished with 25 points when he faced the Spurs last week. And that was without Evan Mobley in the lineup.

The Mobley-Jarrett Allen combo should be a force for Cleveland, and I don’t see Mitchell needing to do as much.

Mitchell has hit this under in eight of his past 11 games, averaging 22.1 PPG in that span.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-117): As high as this line is, it actually sits comfortably below Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring average for the year (32.8 PPG).

And the Rockets have proven to be a desirable matchup for the runaway MVP favourite.

Check out what he’s done in seven games against the Rockets since the start of last season:

34.9 PPG
56.8 FG%
29+ points in 7 of 7
32+ points in 5 of 7

When the Rockets last saw him, Gilgeous-Alexander put up 51 points on 18-of-30 shooting.

Houston allows the third-most points to opposing PGs — as well as the second-fewest assists.

NBA prop picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 04/04/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 3: Bet on Edwards, Wagner and Grimes on Thursday

I’ve got three prop bets from Thursday’s six-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia’s Quentin Grimes has been one of the league’s biggest late-season surprises and should stay hot against the Milwaukee Bucks. I’m also backing Franz Wagner and Anthony Edwards to show out.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 3.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Grimes over 23.5 points (-110)

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Bettors should be eyeing Grimes’ point total on a nightly basis. Sometimes the number is a little rich for my blood, but not here.

The 76ers have shut down Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid for the season, and Grimes has filled that void. Check out what he’s done since the beginning of March:

26.6 PPG
50.0 FG%
39.2 3PT%
20+ points in 12/15 games
25+ points in 11/15 games

In that span, Grimes is leading all Sixers in minutes (34.7) and field-goal attempts (18.8) per game.

And tonight, he gets to play a Bucks team which is horrible at containing opposing PGs.

Key stat: Milwaukee is allowing the second-most PPG to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

Wagner over 10.5 rebounds and assists (-121): The Orlando Magic (14-point favourites) are poised to blow out the Washington Wizards tonight.

I want in on the action and think this is a great way to back Wagner, whose inconsistent shooting makes him an undesirable target on scoring-related markets.

Orlando’s small forward is averaging 5.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists this season and has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games.

That includes an outing against the Wizards on March 21, where he logged eight rebounds and five assists in 24 minutes of play.

He’s 3-0 against this line vs. Washington this year.

The Wizards are allowing the sixth-most rebounds (8.38) and second-most assists (4.82) per game to SFs over the last 30 days, per Fantasy Pros.

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-122): I’m hoping Edwards isn’t too tired after a herculean 50-minute effort against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday.

The shooting guard scored 34 points and canned five threes in a double-overtime victory. That marked the third straight game where he’s cleared this total and attempted at least 10 threes.

Edwards attempts (10.2) and makes (4.0) the second-most 3s per game and draws an exploitable matchup against the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Brooklyn allows the 13th-most 3s per game to shooting guards.

NBA prop picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 04/03/2025.

Warriors vs. Lakers SGP predictions April 3: Back Doncic to shoot lights out in +380 wager

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers showcase a potential first-round playoff matchup on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers are one of the NBA’s top home teams, so I will take them to win tonight. This +380 SGP also includes overs for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Check out my Warriors vs. Lakers SGP predictions for April 3.

Warriors vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Lakers ML | Reaves over 19.5 points | Doncic 3+ threes (+380)

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Lakers ML (-120): Backing the Lakers at home has become a personal favourite pick of mine, and for good reason.

They have the NBA’s third-best home record (29-9).

They are 11-3 at home since acquiring Doncic.

The Warriors are a tough side to fade right now. They are 19-4 with Jimmy Butler but are playing a sixth-straight game on the road. They are currently 3-2 on this trip.

If there’s anywhere Golden State is vulnerable, it’s on the road. It is 21-17 away from home this season.

Plus, the trio of Doncic, Reaves and LeBron James is at full force right now. I’m predicting them to lead L.A. to another win.

NBA SGP legs

Reaves over 19.5 points (-112): I know Reaves fell well under this mark against the Houston Rockets last time out, but this line is simply too low.

He finished with 13 points, shooting 5-of-11 from the field. But the Rockets own the third best defensive rating and roster some elite wing defenders like Amen Thompson and Dillon Brooks.

Those 11 attempts were his lowest in a game since Feb. 28, so I expect a major uptick in volume tonight.

Here’s what he averaged in March:

23.3 points
16.4 field-goal attempts
48.0% from the floor

Including that down performance against Houston, Reaves has cleared this total in eight of his last 10 games.

Even with his superstar teammates healthy, Reaves has proven to be reliable against this line.

Doncic 3+ threes (-210): Remember when Doncic struggled in a Lakers uniform? Those days are long gone.

Doncic flipped a switch at the end of February and reminded everyone that he’s among the best scorers in the NBA.

Over the past 16 games, Doncic averaged 30.1 points and shot 40.1% from deep.

He’s attempting 10.4 and making 4.2 threes per game during that time.

When he’s at his best, which he is right now, Doncic demands a ton of shot volume and around half of those attempts come from beyond the arc.

He failed to cash this wager in the last two games but was 13-1 in the 14 games before. That makes this an easy addition to the parlay.

Warriors vs. Lakers predictions made at 9:25 a.m. ET 04/03/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 3: Bet on Edwards, Wagner and Grimes on Thursday

I’ve got three prop bets from Thursday’s six-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia’s Quentin Grimes has been one of the league’s biggest late-season surprises and should stay hot against the Milwaukee Bucks. I’m also backing Franz Wagner and Anthony Edwards to show out.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 3.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Grimes over 23.5 points (-118)

Bettors should be eyeing Grimes’ point total on a nightly basis. Sometimes the number is a little rich for my blood, but not here.

The 76ers have shut down Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid for the season, and Grimes has filled that void. Check out what he’s done since the beginning of March:

26.6 PPG
50.0 FG%
39.2 3PT%
20+ points in 12/15 games
25+ points in 11/15 games

In that span, Grimes is leading all Sixers in minutes (34.7) and field-goal attempts (18.8) per game.

And tonight, he gets to play a Bucks team which is horrible at containing opposing PGs.

Key stat: Milwaukee is allowing the second-most PPG to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

Wagner over 10.5 rebounds and assists (-106): The Orlando Magic (14-point favourites) are poised to blow out the Washington Wizards tonight.

I want in on the action and think this is a great way to back Wagner, whose inconsistent shooting makes him an undesirable target on scoring-related markets.

Orlando’s small forward is averaging 5.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists this season and has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games.

That includes an outing against the Wizards on March 21, where he logged eight rebounds and five assists in 24 minutes of play.

He’s 3-0 against this line vs. Washington this year.

The Wizards are allowing the sixth-most rebounds (8.38) and second-most assists (4.82) per game to SFs over the last 30 days, per Fantasy Pros.

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-122): I’m hoping Edwards isn’t too tired after a herculean 50-minute effort against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday.

The shooting guard scored 34 points and canned five threes in a double-overtime victory. That marked the third straight game where he’s cleared this total and attempted at least 10 threes.

Edwards attempts (10.2) and makes (4.0) the second-most 3s per game and draws an exploitable matchup against the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

Brooklyn allows the 13th-most 3s per game to shooting guards.

NBA prop picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 04/03/2025.

Pistons vs. Thunder SGP predictions April 2: Bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at +290

The shorthanded Detroit Pistons face the NBA’s toughest challenge in the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is well on his way to his first MVP trophy. He headlines this +290 SGP that also includes Jalen Duren and Dennis Schroder.

Check out my Pistons vs. Thunder SGP predictions for April 2.

Pistons vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Duren over 12.5 points | Schroder 6+ assists (+290)

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Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-180): This is a very high number for all but a select few, led by Gilgeous-Alexander.

He paces the NBA with 32.8 points per game, almost three full points more than what is required here.

The MVP frontrunner has been even better since the all-star break. He’s averaged 33.7 points in 19 games on an extremely efficient 52.0% from the floor. He’s 14-5 against this line during that time.

The Pistons are an average matchup for point guards and hold the NBA’s seventh-best ATS record (40-32-3).

They should be able to stay competitive for long enough in this matchup for SGA to hit his 30-point nightly quota.

NBA SGP legs

Duren over 12.5 points (-122): Since Cade Cunningham has been out for Detroit, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has drawn up more offence for Duren.

He has topped this point total in all four games without his point guard.

Duren’s scoring success extends back much further than that, though. Take a look at his averages from the past 35 games:

14.1 points
70.2 FG%
26-9 against this line

Duren had just eight points against OKC on March 15. He took a measly six shots in that matchup and I can’t help but feel like the big man will see a pretty significant uptick in volume this time around.

He’s averaging 10.0 shot attempts over the past four games without Cunningham active.

Schroder 6+ assists (-210): The biggest contributor in Cunningham’s absence, though, is the backup point guard.

He only played 30-plus minutes in one game as a Piston with his star teammate in the lineup. That was in an 18-game sample size.

Without Cunningham, Schroder has been significantly more involved. Here are his averages from the past four games:

32.5 minutes
8.0 assists
14.8 potential assists

Schroder had six or more assists in three of those contests.

Pistons vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:15 p.m. ET 04/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 2: Back big men Sengun and Sabonis on Wednesday

Two star centres headline Wednesday’s best NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Alperen Sengun is in a spot he’s shined before, so I’ll gladly take the over on his modest point total. Domantas Sabonis and P.J. Washington are also in positions to feast.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 2.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Sengun over 19.5 points (-118)

The Utah Jazz is a team Sengun seemingly has circled on the calendar.

Since becoming a focal point in the Rockets’ offence at the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the big man has scored 20-plus points in all four games against the Jazz.

He grabbed 10-plus rebounds in each of those matchups, too, which isn’t important for this wager at a surface level but demonstrates how little resistance Utah has for Sengun in the paint.

The Jazz allow the fifth-most points to centres (24.69), per Fantasy Pros.

Averaging 19.1 PPG on the season, Sengun is liable to cash this bet when a plus matchup comes around. And that’s exactly what he has on Wednesday.

Key stat: Sengun has averaged 30.0 points in two games vs. Utah this season.

Best NBA picks

Washington over 16.5 points (-108): Dallas’ forward recently missed seven games with an injury but has returned to play some of his best ball of the season.

Washington has played six games since rejoining the lineup, averaging 21.7 points on 56.5% shooting (40.7% from 3-point range).

He has 16+ points in 5 of those 6 games.

On Monday against the Brooklyn Nets, Washington scored 13 points on just seven shots. So the issue was volume, not efficiency.

He has shot over 50.0% from the field in every game since returning.

Tonight is a nice opportunity to do damage as the Atlanta Hawks allow the second-most PPG to power forwards (24.23).

This matchup has the highest point total of any game on Wednesday (239).

Sabonis over 33.5 points/rebounds (-130): This stat line is very achievable for Sabonis on any night.

He averages 33.0 points/rebounds/assists, but this pick is all about the matchup.

The Washington Wizards give up the most PRA to centres per game (42.96), and it’s not close. For reference, the next team on the list is the New Orleans Pelicans (40.34)).

Sabonis played Washington earlier this season and he dominated. He finished with 29 points and 18 rebounds (47 PRA) in a below-average 31 minutes.

NBA prop picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 04/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 2: Back big men Sengun and Sabonis on Wednesday

Two star centres headline Wednesday’s best NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Alperen Sengun is in a spot he’s shined before, so I’ll gladly take the over on his modest point total. Domantas Sabonis and P.J. Washington are also in positions to feast.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 2.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Sengun over 19.5 points (-106)

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The Utah Jazz is a team Sengun seemingly has circled on the calendar.

Since becoming a focal point in the Rockets’ offence at the beginning of the 2023-24 season, the big man has scored 20-plus points in all four games against the Jazz.

He grabbed 10-plus rebounds in each of those matchups, too, which isn’t important for this wager at a surface level but demonstrates how little resistance Utah has for Sengun in the paint.

The Jazz allow the fifth-most points to centres (24.69), per Fantasy Pros.

Averaging 19.1 PPG on the season, Sengun is liable to cash this bet when a plus matchup comes around. And that’s exactly what he has on Wednesday.

Key stat: Sengun has averaged 30.0 points in two games vs. Utah this season.

Best NBA picks

Washington over 16.5 points (-124): Dallas’ forward recently missed seven games with an injury but has returned to play some of his best ball of the season.

Washington has played six games since rejoining the lineup, averaging 21.7 points on 56.5% shooting (40.7% from 3-point range).

He has 16+ points in 5 of those 6 games.

On Monday against the Brooklyn Nets, Washington scored 13 points on just seven shots. So the issue was volume, not efficiency.

He has shot over 50.0% from the field in every game since returning.

Tonight is a nice opportunity to do damage as the Atlanta Hawks allow the second-most PPG to power forwards (24.23).

This matchup has the highest point total of any game on Wednesday (239).

Sabonis over 40.5 points/rebounds/assists (-112): This stat line is very achievable for Sabonis on any night.

He averages 39.0 points/rebounds/assists, but this pick is all about the matchup.

The Washington Wizards give up the most PRA to centres per game (47.0), and it’s not close. For reference, the next team on the list is the New Orleans Pelicans (45.2).

Sabonis played Washington earlier this season and he dominated. He finished with 29 points, 18 rebounds and four assists (51 PRA) in a below-average 31 minutes.

NBA prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 04/02/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SGP predictions April 1: Bet on Minnesota to win behind Anthony Edwards

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets close out Tuesday’s seven-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota is perfect against Denver this season after eliminating the Nuggets in last season’s playoffs. I expect the T-Wolves to sweep the season series tonight behind superstar Anthony Edwards.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for April 1.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves moneyline | Edwards 3+ threes | Under 245.5 points (+295)

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Timberwolves moneyline (+130): There’s some injury uncertainty on Denver’s side of things. Nikola Jokic is probable, while Aaron Gordon (calf) and Jamal Murray (ankle) are listed as questionable per the NBA’s 3:30 p.m. ET injury report.

The availability of those three will impact this line, but let’s assume they’re all playing.

Minnesota is 3-0 against Denver this season, most recently handing the Nuggets a 115-95 loss on March 12. That game was in Denver, with all of the Nuggets’ big names in the lineup.

And since that contest, the Nuggets are an uninspiring 5-4 with losses to the Washington Wizards, Portland Trail Blazers and Chicago Bulls.

The Timberwolves are missing some bench depth as Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid are suspended, but I don’t think that’ll matter much.

Denver ranks 27th in bench points per game, and Minnesota shouldn’t lose those minutes handily.

NBA SGP legs

Edwards 3+ threes (-265): Edwards is coming off an inconsistent March where he averaged 26.6 points on 45.9% shooting.

It wasn’t his best work, though he was still reliable against this total:

3.5 makes on 9.9 attempts a night
3+ threes in 10 of 14 games
10+ attempts in 9 of 14 games

The dynamic shooting guard is coming off back-to-back outings where he shot 4-of-10 from deep. He’s had success against the Nuggets before and should keep firing tonight.

Edwards is 3-0 against this line vs. Denver this season, shooting a combined 15-of-34 (44.1%) from beyond the arc.

Under 245.5 points (-385): None of the three meetings between Minnesota and Denver this season went over this total — not even close, actually.

The highest scoring game was a 133-104 win by Minnesota, and the average game total was 227.3 points.

Including last year’s playoff games, these squads have gone under this total in 14 straight games. Only three of those contests eclipsed 230 combined points.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions made at 3:35 p.m. ET 04/01/2025.

Raptors vs. Bulls SGP predictions April 1: Bet on Toronto ATS, Scottie Barnes at +330

The Toronto Raptors look for a fifth-straight win when they play the Chicago Bulls on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is fighting ’til the bitter end, unlike some other teams in the NBA. I’ll back the Raps to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Scottie Barnes and Coby White in this +330 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Bulls SGP predictions for April 1.

Raptors vs. Bulls predictions

Parlay: Raptors +8.5 | Barnes 6+ rebounds | White 25+ points (+330)

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Raptors +8.5 (-200): Almost every time I craft a Raptors SGP, it begins with backing them to cover an alternate spread. Why? Well, just take a look at how they’ve performed this season:

39-24-1 ATS as an underdog
21-14 ATS as a road underdog

Toronto has covered a +8.5 spread in 13 of its last 16 games, winning 10 of those contests outright. Clearly, the players aren’t getting the memo that this is supposed to be a tank job.

With Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl in the lineup, there should be more than enough star power to keep this close.

Chicago is 5-7 ATS as a home favourite this season.

NBA SGP legs

Barnes 6+ rebounds (-230): This should be a cinch for Barnes.

Toronto’s power forward is averaging 7.8 rebounds per game this season and has been consistent against this line since the all-star break:

6+ rebounds in 13 of 18 games
Cashed in five of his last six

The Bulls are a below-average team on the glass, ranking 20th in rebounding rate, per NBA.com.

Barnes recorded eight and 10 rebounds in his two meetings against Chicago this season.

White 25+ points (-105): White is coming off a stinker against the Oklahoma City Thunder last night, scoring seven points on 2-of-5 shooting.

But OKC is a historically good defensive team, and he was red-hot before then.

White averaged 28.8 PPG in 15 games before Monday, scoring at least 20 points in each of those contests. He was 11-4 against this line and landed on exactly 24 points twice; that’s pretty consistent if you ask me.

Toronto is giving up the eighth-most PPG to opposing shooting guards this season, per Fantasy Pros.

Raptors vs. Bulls predictions made at 11:35 a.m. ET 04/01/2025.