Category: NBA

The Toronto Raptors host Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight home games but OKC is among the league’s best on both ends of the court. I expect the Thunder to win and make Scottie Barnes’ night difficult. Also, back Isaiah Hartenstein to score.

Check out my Thunder vs. Raptors prop picks for Dec. 5.

Thunder vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Barnes under 37.5 points/rebounds/assists (-112)

Barnes has been on a rampage since returning from injury on Nov. 21. Check out his numbers over the last seven games:

• 23.6 PPG
• 7.9 APG
• 8.9 RPG
• 4-3 vs. this line

Toronto’s franchise player has cleared this mark in three straight and is coming off a season-high 35-point outing … so why fade him now?

Without diminishing his most recent performance, we have to recognize it came against an Indiana Pacers team with the sixth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

The Thunder own the league’s best defensive rating, allow the fourth-fewest assists per game, and have been a much better rebounding team since Hartenstein made his debut.

This is a nightmare matchup for Barnes in every sense, especially as a scorer.

OKC has the third-best midrange defence in the NBA, according to Cleaning the Glass. Barnes takes 45% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 100th percentile for all players.

Key stat: Barnes is 0-5 against this line in his last five vs. the Thunder.

Quick pick

Hartenstein over 12.5 points (-121): Toronto has struggled to defend the rim this season.

• The Raptors allow the 11th-most paint points per game.
  
• Toronto is giving up the 10th-most points per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

I backed Hartenstein a few days ago and it blew up in my face. He scored just four points on seven field-goal attempts in a blowout win against the Utah Jazz.

But the big man was rolling before that, clearing this line in four of five games while averaging 15.2 PPG. I expect him to have a solid game tonight.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 12/05/2024.

The NBA’s top teams in both conferences are in action tonight as part of an eight-game schedule.

The latest: In Toronto, Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder face the scrappy but often unsuccessful Raptors. Elsewhere, the Cleveland Cavaliers put a stellar home record on the line against the Denver Nuggets.

Check out today’s basketball betting lines and our NBA schedule for Dec. 5.

NBA schedule: Dec. 5

Visit all of tonight’s NBA markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards

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Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors

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Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans

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Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs

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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors

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Betting insights

• Notable players listed as questionable on the league’s official 8:30 a.m. injury report: Malcolm Brogdon, Ty Jerome, Gradey Dick, Josh Giddey, Brandon Ingram, Fred VanVleet and Andrew Wiggins.

• Cleveland is 12-1 at home this season, with a 10-3 ATS record in those games. Denver is just 3-6-1 ATS in its past 10 games overall — but the Nuggets are also 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season.

• The Raptors continue to be a tough out, but now they’ll be tested by the Western Conference-leading Thunder. OKC’s average margin of victory is +10.8 points. Toronto, meanwhile, has covered a +8.5 spread in eight of its past 10 games.

• New Orleans has lost nine straight games, though it was only favoured once in that span. Tonight, the Pelicans host a Suns squad that hasn’t played on the road since Nov. 17.

• Golden State is 11-0 against Houston since the start of the 2021-22 season. That includes an overtime win as a 5-point road underdog on Nov. 2 of this year.

The Los Angeles Clippers host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Wednesday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: I say Minnesota extends its winning streak to three behind a solid Anthony Edwards performance. Additional prop bets on Rudy Gobert and Derrick Jones Jr. round out this +430 wager.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 4.

Timberwolves vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves moneyline + Edwards over 2.5 threes + Gobert under 12.5 rebounds + Jones over 6.5 points (+430)

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Timberwolves moneyline (-148): Minnesota has some work to do if it wants to return to the Western Conference Finals.

The T-Wolves are batting .500 through 20 games and sit a middling 16th in offensive rating.

But their defence is still air-tight and Los Angeles is playing on a back-to-back. And when these teams met last week, Minnesota edged out a 93-92 win in a rock fight.

The Clippers are still without Kawhi Leonard. Now 35-year-old James Harden played a team-high 32 minutes last night.

Meanwhile, Edwards and Co. are well-rested after handing the Los Angeles Lakers a 109-80 beating on Monday.

This feels like a spot where Minny turns its season around.

SGP legs

Edwards over 2.5 threes (-305): I faded Julius Randle’s 1.5 three-point total in today’s NBA prop bets piece. One of the main reasons was Los Angeles’ superb 3-point defence.

But Edwards is a much different player than Randle. The shooting guard is letting it fly from deep this season:

• 4.5 threes per game (second in NBA)
• 10.7 three-point attempts/game (third in NBA)
• 3+ threes in 18/20 starts

Edwards went 4-of-9 from deep against L.A. in 27 minutes last Friday. This line should be a breeze.

Gobert under 12.5 rebounds (-175): Gobert is a menace on the glass — averaging the eighth-most rebounds per game (11.2). But this teased-up total asks a lot of him.

Minnesota’s centre has fallen under this mark in 14 of 20 games, including each of his past three.

The Clippers have the best defensive rebounding rate in the NBA and hold opposing centres to the fifth-fewest rebounds per game, according to Fantasy Pros.

Jones over 6.5 points (-335): Jones has carved out a niche role in his first year with the Clippers.

The 27-year-old small forward is putting up a career-best 10.2 points per game as a starter.

He’s been efficient with 50.2/41.5/86.7 shooting splits, going over this mark in 17 of 23 games while coming within a basket of clearing it four more times.

Picks made at 12:38 p.m. on 12/04/24.

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I’ve got three prop recommendations from Wednesday’s five-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Dyson Daniels isn’t the biggest name, but he’s in a great spot to clear a modest point total against the Milwaukee Bucks. Elsewhere, back Anthony Davis and fade Julius Randle.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 4.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Daniels over 11.5 points (-117)

Daniels is having a breakout season with the Atlanta Hawks.

The third-year guard has found himself in a starting role after coming off the bench for the New Orleans Pelicans in his rookie and sophomore campaigns. Unsurprisingly, the increased minutes have led to more scoring.

• 2023-24: 5.8 PPG, 5.1 FGA/game
• 2024-25: 13.9 PPG, 13.1 FGA/game

Daniels isn’t lighting the league on fire, but he’s been consistent and draws a great matchup.

The Bucks are allowing the third-most points per game to opposing shooting guards (24.75), according to Fantasy Pros.

When Milwaukee traded Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard two seasons ago, it brought immediate offensive upside but severely hampered their defence, especially on the perimeter.

This season, the Bucks allow opponents to make 3s at the 10th-best clip in the NBA (36.6%).

Daniels takes over 30% of his shots from beyond the arc and he’ll have an outsized opportunity to fill the basket on Wednesday.

Key stat: Daniels has cleared this mark in nine of his last 13 games.

Quick picks

Davis over 37.5 points and rebounds (-124): This is a monstrous number to clear but Davis is having a monster season.

The Los Angeles Lakers big man ranks seventh in the NBA in both points (27.8) and rebounds (11.5) per game. That nets out to a combined average of 39.2 points and rebounds per night.

He’s cleared this mark in six of his past 10 games and gets an exploitable matchup against the Miami Heat.

Miami allows the fourth-most rebounds per game to centres and ranks a middling 16th in opponent mid-range shooting percentage, per Cleaning the Glass.

Davis takes 44% of his shots from the midrange, which ranks in the 90th percentile for all NBA players.

Randle under 1.5 threes (-130): Randle isn’t a 3-point shooter.

In his first season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, he’s attempted just 4.6 threes a night. He has also been cold lately. In his past six games, Randle is 1-5 against this line while shooting 25% from beyond the arc.

Making matters worse, Randle is playing a Los Angeles Clippers team that excels at defending the perimeter.

L.A. owns the league’s third-best 3-point defence (34.2%) while surrendering the 11th-fewest 3-point attempts (37.2) per game.

Picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 12/04/2024.

The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings meet tonight in the last game of the NBA Cup’s group stage.

The pregame narrative: Houston has punched its ticket to the next round while Sacramento (0-3 NBA Cup record) is out. I’m backing Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet but still expect the Kings to cover a hefty alt spread at home.

Check out my Rockets vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 3.

Rockets vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Kings +7.5 + Brooks over 1.5 threes + VanVleet over 5.5 assists (+340)

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Kings +7.5 (-435): Sacramento could probably care less that it’s out of contention for the NBA Cup, but it still needs to turn things around quickly.

The Kings have lost six of their last seven games and are now 9-12 on the season.

But they’ve still covered this number 17 times (80.9%) and are often in it right ’till the end.

Houston is on a three-game winning streak but has failed to cover this number in each contest, with two requiring overtime.

All in all, the Rockets (15-6) are just 9-12 against this number and just 1-8 against it on the road.

All signs point to this being a closely contested affair, so I’ll happily bank eight extra points with the home side.

SGP legs

Smith over 1.5 threes (-103): A big reason the Kings have been losing games is their atrocious 3-point defence.

• 28th in opponent 3PT% (38.2)
• 28th in opponent 3s attempted/game (39.5)

Teams are shooting with volume and accuracy from deep against Sacramento and I want to exploit that.

Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s cleared this line in five of his last six games, making three-plus 3s in four of those contests.

The third-year power forward is shooting 37.7% from deep since Nov. 1 and has the perfect matchup to bring that a couple of notches higher.

VanVleet over 5.5 assists (-124): VanVleet has a consistent floor as a facilitator.

He’s recorded five or more assists in 13 of his last 15 games, clearing this mark seven times. The only times he recorded fewer than five assists was in a pair of games against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKC has the best defensive rating in basketball and allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Sacramento is 17th in defensive rating and allows the eighth-most APG to point guards.

VanVleet is averaging 6.2 assists on the season and should have an above-average night against a below-average defence.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 12/03/24.

I’ve got prop bets on Steph Curry and Nikola Jokic when the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The pregame narrative: Both superstars draw favourable matchups and will be the focal points on offence this evening. I think both players will score but am backing Curry and am fading Jokic.

Check out my Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks for Dec. 3.

Warriors vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Curry over 23.5 points (-120)

Let’s get this out of the way: Curry’s scoring has been way down this season.

The future Hall of Famer is putting up 22.5 points a night, which is on pace to be the lowest mark since his 2010-11 sophomore season (excluding years where he played fewer than 30 games).

But Curry is also playing just 29.9 minutes a night, which is nearly five minutes below his career average.

The sharpshooter has still been efficient, especially from deep, cashing in at a 43.4% rate from beyond the arc. And with Golden State staring down a five-game losing streak, I expect Steve Kerr to give his best player plenty of run.

Even with his reduced role, Curry has cleared or came close to this line often:

• 24+ points in 6/15 games (two games with 23 points)
• 23+ points in 6/8 games where he’s played 30+ minutes

The Nuggets lack depth and are a mediocre defensive team, sitting 19th in defensive rating (114.2) while allowing the 10th-most 3s per game (13.8).

I expect Curry to comfortably clear this mark as long as he plays north of 30 minutes.

Key stat: Denver allows the 10th most PPG to opposing point guards, per Fantays Pros.

Quick pick

Jokic under 1.5 threes (-103): Fading Jokic while he’s shooting a career-best 50.8% from deep might seem ill-advised, but I think it makes sense here.

The MVP frontrunner has cleared this mark in 10 of 15 games but he’s also finished with exactly two 3s on five occasions.

And Jokic is only attempting 4.3 threes a night, so he’ll have to remain hyper-efficient to clear this number.

The Warriors are the league’s best 3-point defending team — holding opponents to a 32.7% rate — but are the worst at containing the midrange. Opponents are shooting 46.3% from that area of the court, which is the highest in the NBA.

Denver’s offensive game plan should focus on Jokic getting inside and doing damage off the pick-and-roll, not from beyond the arc.

Jokic has gone under this number in five of his last seven against the Warriors.

Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET 12/03/2024.