Category: NBA

The Milwaukee Bucks will be shorthanded in their first game since winning the NBA Cup.

The pregame narrative: Damian Lillard is out, which is partially why I’m taking the Cleveland Cavaliers to win and the under on a teased-up game total. Prop bets on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Darius Garland round out this +320 wager.

Check out my Bucks vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 20.

Bucks vs. Cavaliers predictions

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Parlay: Cavaliers moneyline + Under 230.5 points + Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds + Garland over 14.5 points (+320)

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Cavaliers moneyline (-375): The Bucks are fresh off an NBA Cup victory but I’ll fade them tonight.

And that’s not exactly going out on a limb. Cleveland tops the NBA with a 23-4 record and owns the best net rating in the Eastern Conference (+10.3).

The Cavs are 14-1 at home while the Bucks are 4-7 on the road.

Milwaukee is 0-2 against Cleveland this season and will be without Lillard, who’s averaging 25.7 points per game and scored 41 and 36 against the Cavs.

Giannis is the best player on the court but won’t be able to do it all against Cleveland’s elite starting five and deep bench.

SGP legs

Under 230.5 points (-220): Milwaukee is missing a big-time scorer who doesn’t play much defence — that should immediately guide bettors toward the under.

Even with Lillard on the court, the Bucks have morphed into a strong defensive team.

• In the last 15 games, Milwaukee has the seventh-best defensive rating in basketball.
  
• The Bucks have the fourth-highest unders rate (57.7%) in the league.

Cleveland is a solid defensive team in its own right, with the ninth-best defensive rating and seventh-lowest opponent field goal percentage.

The under is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams with nine of those matchups going under this alternate total.

Antetokounmpo over 11.5 rebounds (-134): The Cavaliers are a solid rebounding team but the Greek Freak is matchup-proof.

Giannis is averaging exactly 11.5 rebounds per game — a benchmark he’s hit in four straight years and five of the last six — and is coming off a 19-board performance in the NBA Cup final.

He’s gone over this mark in four of his last five against the Cavaliers, averaging 15.0 rebounds per game and landing on 11 the one time he fell short.

His floor as a rebounder is high, recording double-digit boards in 19 of 23 games.

Garland over 14.5 points (-375): The last time Garland played the Bucks he dropped a season-high 39 points and shot 7-of-11 from deep.

That marked the fifth time in his last six meetings against Milwaukee where he scored at least 20 points.

The Bucks give up the most points per game to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros, and I expect Garland to clear this total even if Lillard’s replacement is more defensively responsible.

Cleveland’s floor general is averaging 20.3 PPG and has 15-plus points in 18 of 26 starts.

Picks made at 10:43 a.m. on 12/20/24.

The Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets meet at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a much better team at home, so I’m backing it against the spread over the Nets. I also like a prop pick on the Nets’ Cameron Johnson.

Check out my Raptors vs. Nets best bets for Dec. 19.

Raptors vs. Nets best bets

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Best bet: Raptors -3.5 (-113): The Raptors are 7-20 on the season but they do have a 6-8 home record.

Scottie Barnes is questionable despite originally being labelled out for “several weeks” by Shams Charania of ESPN.

I’m not sure Barnes will be cleared to go tonight, but his availability would have me feeling extra bullish about this pick.

After all, Toronto is 5-9 with Barnes and 2-11 without him.

I still like the Raptors in this spot with or without Barnes, though.

Brooklyn made a trade last week to send top ball handler Dennis Schroder to the Golden State Warriors. He averaged 18.4 points per game in 33.6 minutes as the Nets’ starting point guard.

That production is going to be hard to replace as the Nets received no healthy players back from the Warriors.

Brooklyn is also without Cam Thomas, who leads the Nets in scoring (24.7 PPG).

In the first game after the trade, the Nets lost by 29 at home to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Over their last seven games overall, the Nets are 1-6 and failed to cover this spread in each of those losses.

Brooklyn started the season strong but is in a huge downward spiral lately.

Key stat: Toronto is 10-3-1 ATS at home this season, which is the second-best record in the NBA.

Quick pick

Johnson over 21.5 points (-113): As bad as the recent situation has been for the Nets, it’s been great for Johnson.

Since the start of December, the sharpshooting wing is 4-1 against this line, playing 30-plus minutes in four of those five games.

In the first game after the Schroder trade, Johnson was tasked with more offensive responsibility and the result was a career-high 11 made free throws on 13 attempts.

He managed to cash this line in that contest against the Cavs despite playing his fewest minutes (27) since Nov. 25.

The Raptors play at a fast pace and own the 11th-worst defensive rating in the NBA so there should be ample opportunity for Johnson.

At the very least, he’s playing at a high level, averaging 22.4 points, 14.4 field goal attempts and 6.4 free throw attempts over this last five games. All those numbers are well above his season averages.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. on 12/19/24.

Karl-Anthony Towns returns to Minnesota tonight when the Timberwolves host the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: With two strong defensive-minded coaches squaring off, I expect a low-scoring game in Minneapolis. I also have plays on Jaden McDaniels and Karl-Anthony Towns to close out this +400 ticket.

Check out my Knicks vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 19.

Knicks vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Under 222.5 points + McDaniels over 10.5 points + Towns under 13.5 rebounds (+400)

Under 222.5 (-265): A chess match is brewing between Timberwolves coach Chris Finch and Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau.

Thibodeau, notorious for his defensive intensity, will be tested against one of the best teams in the NBA.

Last year’s Western Conference finalists have the third-best home defensive rating (103.7). The Knicks have been a middle-of-the-road defensive team, but something tells me they’ll play up to their competition in a matchup of this magnitude.

Both teams are bottom-10 in the league in pace; I anticipate both sides to have strong offensive possessions but by no means rushed ones.

The Timberwolves have the second-highest unders rate this season (56.0%), and even higher when they play at home (58.3%).

The under has cashed seven times in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

SGP legs

McDaniels over 10.5 points (-114): After a slow start to the campaign, McDaniels is starting to find his offensive groove.

He reached double-digit points in just three of the first 10 games of the season. He’s hit the double-digit mark four times in his past five games.

Mostly known for his defensive ability, the former first-round pick draws a favourable matchup against this Knicks squad.

New York allows the third-most points to opposing small forwards (24.3), per Betting Pros.

All-defensive second-team member OG Anunoby will likely have the assignment of guarding T-Wolves leading scorer Anthony Edwards.

That will leave McDaniels with either Mikal Bridges or Josh Hart, two players lacking the defensive prowess Anunoby possesses.

Towns under 13.5 rebounds (-134): I will admit, Towns is on a generational rebounding run at the start of his tenure with the Knicks.

At 29-years-old he’s averaging the most boards in his career (13.9), which also leads the league.

Outside of Towns, the Knicks have struggled on the glass this season — they rank 25th in rebounds per game (42.4).

Minnesota allows the third-fewest rebounds to opposing teams’ centres (13.15), and Towns should split some minutes with Precious Achiuwa coming off the bench.

This is the perfect spot to take the under on an already fairly high total to begin with.

Towns will also have to battle on the boards with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, which is never an easy task.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. on 12/19/2024.