NBA Archives - Page 118 of 146

Raptors vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions Dec. 23: Bet on Towns, Brunson to produce at +400

The Toronto Raptors play the second half of a back-to-back against the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors have been competitive all season but this isn’t a good spot for them. I’m combining prop picks on Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson with an alternate Knicks spread to make up a +400 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Knicks same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 23.

Raptors vs. Knicks predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Knicks -10.5 +Towns over 22.5 points + Brunson over 2.5 threes (+400)

Embed: #104243

Knicks -10.5 (-182): Toronto played a close game with the Houston Rockets on Sunday and now heads to the Big Apple with a banged-up and fatigued roster.

For the first quarter of the season, the Raptors have been one of the better teams ATS (19-9-1) but there are multiple reasons to like the Knicks here.

RJ Barrett (questionable) and Jakob Poeltl (out) are important parts of Toronto’s early-season results.

The Knicks are 8-4 at home while the Raps are 1-12 on the road.

Four of Toronto’s players logged 31-plus minutes last night.

This is a tough matchup and with that injury report, I expect Toronto to let this game slip way out of reach in the late stages.

Seven of the nine games the Raptors have lost by double-digit points have been away from home.

SGP legs

Towns over 22.5 points (-139): Towns had an off night in his last game but this is a great bounce-back spot.

The big man is averaging 24.5 points per game while shooting an eye-popping 53.0% from the field and 45.9% from 3-point range.

Without Poeltl, the Raptors have limited options — if any — to slow down KAT.

Toronto started 6-foot-9 forward Jonathan Mogbo at centre yesterday and Kelly Olynik and Chris Boucher ate up most of the minutes at the position.

In my opinion, those three guys are unequipped to defend KAT in the low post.

When the Knicks and Raptors first met this season, Towns dropped 24 points on just 13 shots in an efficient scoring performance.

I predict that New York includes its versatile big man more heavily in the game plan this time around.

Toronto allows the ninth-most points to centres per game (22.8), per Fantasy Pros.

Brunson over 2.5 threes (-125): Brunson is a highly efficient 3-point shooter (44.6%) who gets his fair share of volume more often than not.

New York’s point guard averages 2.8 makes on 6.3 attempts per game and he’s currently on a heater.

Brunson cleared this line in five of his past seven games. That includes a 4-for-8 night against the Raptors on Dec. 9. He also dropped seven threes on 10 attempts against the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday.

The all-star PG takes 36.6% of his shots from 3-point range so there should be plenty of volume even if this ends up being a blowout.

Picks made at 9:34 a.m. ET 12/23/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 23: Back Pascal Siakam, Klay Thompson to have big nights

I’ve got three prop bets from Thursday’s 14-game, pre-holiday NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam, Klay Thompson and Evan Mobley have all been producing and find themselves in plus matchups this evening.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 23.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104247

Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-118)

I took this exact wager yesterday when the Indiana Pacers played the Sacramento Kings and it narrowly missed.

Siakam scored 19 points on 7-of-14 shooting but we need to add some context. He played only 28 minutes in a blowout win, which was his second-lowest mark of the season.

It was an unfortunate beat but should work in our favour tonight, considering the former Toronto Raptor is well-rested heading into a plus matchup.

Siakam is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.5% from the field and 42.5% from deep.

He’s the number one option on a team where Tyrese Haliburton is an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Tonight, the Pacers take on a Golden State Warriors team with a massive weak spot in its defence.

The Warriors rank 29th in mid-range defence (45.1%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Golden State also allows the 10th-most points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Siakam has scored 19-plus points in five of his last six games, clearing this mark four times.

Quick picks

Thompson over 3.5 threes (+128): Luka Doncic is in danger of missing a third consecutive game with a heel injury, so bettors should keep an eye on that moving toward game time.

If he can’t go, I love Thompson’s chances of clearing this total. But even if the reigning scoring champion plays, this line should be within reach.

Thompson has found his 3-point stroke and is shooting 45.3% from deep this month and 39.2% on the season.

He’s cleared this line in three of his last four games and has hit at least three triples in five of his last six.

The Dallas Mavericks are going up against a Portland Trail Blazers team allowing the seventh-most 3s per game (13.9) at the third-highest rate (37.5%).

Mobley over 17.5 points (-115): The biggest risk with this play — in my mind — is a blowout.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 14-point favourites against the Utah Jazz, meaning Mobley could find himself on the bench if things get out of hand.

But from a pure numbers perspective, this seems like a great wager:

Mobley is averaging a career-high 18.4 PPG
He’s gone over this mark in 7/10 games
He’s shooting 60.4% from the field this month

On top of his consistent production, he gets a huge plus matchup. The Jazz have the worst midrange (46.2%) and rim (70.9%) defence in basketball and that’s where Mobley takes 91% of his shots from.

Picks made at 9:48 a.m. ET on 12/23/2024.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions Dec. 22: Back Nikola Jokic and Dejounte Murray at +310

The Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans wrap up Sunday’s three-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Denver is a 9.5-point favourite but I’ll simply back it to win tonight. Prop bets on Nikola Jokic and Dejounte Murray round out this +310 wager.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 22.

Nuggets vs. Pelicans predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Jokic over 1.5 threes + Murray over 7.5 assists (+310)

Embed: #104214

Nuggets moneyline (-420): Injuries have derailed the Pelicans’ season.

Nearly everyone in the team’s starting five has missed time and their two leading scorers from last season — Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — are out tonight.

New Orleans is a conference-worst 5-24 and has lost 15 of its past 16 games.

One of its five wins came against Denver back in November but I can’t see that happening again tonight. Jokic is playing at an MVP pace and Jamal Murray is starting to find his shooting stroke.

The Nuggets have won three of their last four while averaging 128.8 points per game — I expect them to keep their foot on the gas.

SGP legs

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-143): Just when you thought Jokic couldn’t get any better, he did.

The three-time MVP is frontrunning his way to another trophy averaging a career-best 31.3 points per game. That’s been thanks to shooting an insane 50.0% from beyond the arc.

Jokic has made 2+ threes in 16/22 games this year.
He’s 11-2 against this line in his last 13 games.

The Pelicans have the 27th-ranked 3-point defence (37.3%) and give up the sixth-most 3s per game (14.3).

Jokic was sidelined when Denver lost to New Orleans earlier this season but I expect him to be active from beyond the arc tonight.

Murray over 7.5 assists (-108): Murray was the Pelicans’ big off-season acquisition and he’s starting to heat up after missing the first two months of the season with an injury.

The former Atlanta Hawk is averaging 7.3 assists in December and has cleared this line in four of his last five games.

His 12.3 potential assists per game rank 16th in the NBA, too.

Denver hasn’t been as defensively stout as in recent years and is giving up the third-most assists per game to opposing PGs (10.1), according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 11:53 a.m. ET 12/22/2024.

Rockets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Dec. 22: Fade Scottie Barnes in +475 ticket

The Toronto Raptors host the Houston Rockets at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has been a great ATS team and I like it to cover as a teased-up home underdog. Fade Scottie Barnes and back Jabari Smith Jr. to round out this +475 ticket.

Check out my Rockets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 22.

Rockets vs. Raptors predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Parlay: Raptors +14.5 + Barnes under 34.5 PRA + Smith over 1.5 threes (+475)

Embed: #104208

Raptors +14.5 (-345): Toronto has mastered the competitive loss — or as some like to call it: “The dignified tank.”

At 7-21, the Raptors sit near the basement of the NBA standings. Their 18-9-1 ATS record, however, ranks third in the league.

That includes a stellar 10-3-1 ATS mark as a home underdog.

I’ve teased this spread up 6.5 points which should be more than enough leeway against a Rockets team which has been mediocre on the road.

Houston is 7-6 straight up away from Toyota Center and has only covered this number in one of those games.

SGP legs

Barnes under 34.5 PRA (-109): Fading Barnes while backing Toronto ATS skyrockets this play’s payout thanks to some negative correlation.

And the good news is the Raptors can still cover a huge number without Barnes having a big night.

This is a nightmare matchup for Toronto’s small forward, who is playing in his second game since returning from an injury.

Houston ranks first in rebounding rate (42.6%).
The Rockets allow the 10th-fewest points (21.8) and third-fewest assists (3.45) to small forwards per game, according to Fantasy Pros.

Barnes is averaging career highs in points (20.3) and assists (7.3) but he’s still fallen under this mark in three of his last four and seven of 15 on the season.

Smith over 1.5 threes (-136): I like this as a straight wager, even with the juice involved.

Smith isn’t a volume shooter from deep but he’s been accurate and has a solid matchup.

The third-year power forward has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times — and is shooting 36.4% from deep.

Toronto allows the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards and Smith hit multiple 3s in both games against the Raptors last season.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET 12/22/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 22: Back Siakam, Sabonis and Smith Jr.

A matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings is the focus of today’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam is running hot and I expect him to have a big game in an exploitable matchup. Elsewhere, back Jabari Smith Jr. from deep against the Toronto Raptors.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 22.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104192

Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-130)

For better or worse, Siakam has been Indiana’s lead man this season.

The former Raptor is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.6% from the field and 42.6% from deep.

Tyrese Haliburton is breaking out of his shooting slump but is still an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Siakam has cleared this total in four of his last five games and took a season-high 22 shots against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday (Haliburton took just nine).

With a high-scoring floor and a favourable matchup, Spicy P should stay hot.

The Kings rank 26th in mid-range defence (44.2%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Key stat: Siakam scored 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting in his only matchup against the Kings since joining Indiana.

Quick picks

Smith over 1.5 threes (-130): Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s fairly accurate and has a fantastic matchup this evening.

The Houston Rockets power forward is shooting 36.4% from deep and has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times.

Tonight he takes on a Raptors team giving up the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Smith canned multiple 3s in both games against Toronto last season.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 22: Back Siakam, Sabonis and Smith Jr.

A matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Sacramento Kings is the focus of today’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam and Domantas Sabonis are running hot and I expect each of them to have big games in exploitable matchups. Elsewhere, back Jabari Smith Jr. from deep against the Toronto Raptors.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 22.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104192

Best bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-125)

For better or worse, Siakam has been Indiana’s lead man this season.

The former Raptor is averaging team highs in points (20.1) and field goal attempts (14.6) while shooting 52.6% from the field and 42.6% from deep.

Tyrese Haliburton is breaking out of his shooting slump but is still an unpredictable scorer with a pass-first mindset.

Siakam has cleared this total in four of his last five games and took a season-high 22 shots against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday (Haliburton took just nine).

With a high-scoring floor and a favourable matchup, Spicy P should stay hot.

The Kings rank 26th in mid-range defence (44.2%), per Cleaning the Glass.
Siakam takes 41% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA players.

Key stat: Siakam scored 22 points on 10-of-16 shooting in his only matchup against the Kings since joining Indiana.

Quick picks

Sabonis over 39.5 PRA (-125): On the other end of the court, Sabonis is having one of the best months of his career:

23.0 PPG
14.0 RPG
5.4 APG
5-4 against this line, 37+ PRA in eight games

The big man is either clearing this total or is right there on any given night. The Pacers’ rebounding and defence are suspect so this should be a good spot for him to stay hot.

Indiana has the third-worst rebounding rate (47.8%) and fifth-worst mid-range defence (44.2%) in basketball.

Sabonis ranks second in rebounding (13.3/game) and takes 29% of his shots from the midrange.

Smith over 1.5 threes (-134): Smith doesn’t take a ton of 3s but he’s fairly accurate and has a fantastic matchup this evening.

The Houston Rockets power forward is shooting 36.4% from deep and has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times.

Tonight he takes on a Raptors team giving up the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Smith canned multiple 3s in both games against Toronto last season.

Picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 12/22/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 21: Bet on Jeremy Sochan, Jayson Tatum to fill the net

An MVP candidate and the NBA assists leader account for two of my three prop bets on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum tends to feast against the Chicago Bulls, and I think his points prop is set too low for tonight’s matchup. Elsewhere, I’m fading Trae Young against a scrappy Memphis Grizzlies squad and looking for decent production from Jeremy Sochan.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 21.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Sochan over 14.5 points (-134)

In his third NBA season, Sochan has cut way down on 3-point shots and enjoyed a nice bump in his overall scoring production.

From 3.1 attempted 3s last year, Sochan is down to just 1.6 this season. He’s committed to making hay at the rim — and it’s paying off.

Sochan is averaging 15.1 PPG in Year 3 after an 11.3 PPG average over his first two seasons.

This year, the power forward attempts 65% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s in the 100th percentile among NBA players.

He’s scored 15+ points in three straight games.

Tonight’s matchup is a solid one for Sochan, who sees the Portland Trail Blazers for the second time this month. Portland allows the fourth-highest FG% around the rim (69.4%), so Sochan should be encouraged to remain active in that area.

Including his Dec. 13 matchup against Portland, Sochan has cashed this bet in four of his past five games in this matchup. That includes a 31-point performance when they last met in San Antonio in January.

Key stat: Sochan has scored 15-plus points in nine of 14 games this season.

Quick picks

Tatum over 26.5 points (-118): This line is at least a point or two lower than I’d expect it to be, and that makes it look like a great value.

For one thing, Tatum’s track record against this number is very strong:

28.3 PPG this season
26+ points in 17/25 games

Also, tonight’s Celtics/Bulls game has the highest projected total of the entire NBA slate (245 points). Boston has the No. 3 offensive rating in the league, while Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Tatum has scored 28.9 PPG over nine matchups against the Bulls. He’s scored 30-plus points in both meetings this year.

Young under 11.5 assists (-138): Young leads the NBA in assists this season.

But he’s been productive on the glass and as a distributor, bringing in averages of 10.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists into tonight’s matchup. Both are just off his career-best marks.

Adebayo is staring down a plus matchup in that regard, as the Thunder rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most assists per game to centres.

The three-time all-star has cleared this line in seven of his last nine contests and is averaging 12.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists in seven December games.

Picks made at 2:42 p.m. ET on 12/21/2024.

Pistons vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Dec. 21: Ride with Cade Cunningham and an alt over

In the final NBA matchup of the night, Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons visit the Phoenix Suns.

The pregame narrative: Detroit has upped its offensive game recently, and Cunningham is at the centre of it. For Saturday’s matchup, I have Cunningham and Jusuf Nurkic in a +230 SGP.

Check out my Pistons vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 21.

Pistons vs. Suns predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104166

Parlay: Over 219.5 points + Cunningham over 34.5 points/rebounds/assists + Nurkic under 10.5 rebounds (+230)

Over 219.5 points (-190): Detroit’s over/under record this year is an even split (14-14-0), but the team has played a more offence-friendly brand of hoops in recent weeks.

Over their past 10 games, the Pistons have the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA. The over is 7-3 in those matchups.

As for Phoenix, this is a number the team comfortably clears on the regular. At this point total, overs are 19-7 in Suns games this season.

Phoenix is ninth in the NBA in effective field goal percentage (59.6%).

SGP legs

Cunningham over 34.5 PRA (-240): He’s not always the most efficient shooter, but Cunningham is the Pistons’ top player. And he’s on a tear right now.

In 17 games since Nov. 4, check out what the former No. 1 overall pick has been up to:

23.8 points/game
8.0 rebounds/game
10.7 assists/game
Six triple-doubles
35+ PRA in 14/17 matchups

Phoenix allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros. But if Cunningham goes cold as a facilitator, I know he can affect the game in other ways.

On the season, Cunningham has a 30.0% usage rate. That ranks 11th among players and is in the same range as Nikola Jokic, Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant.

Nurkic under 10.5 rebounds (-124): The Pistons are a solid rebounding team, and I don’t like this matchup for Nurkic.

Detroit allows …

8th-fewest rebounds per game
5th-fewest rebounds to opposing centres
7th-lowest rebound rate

At 7 feet, Nurkic is taller than anyone the Pistons will play against him in the post. But that’s not the only data point to consider, and Detroit has proven itself to be a tough team to rebound against.

Nurkic has gone under 10.5 rebounds in three of his past four games — and 11 of 19 on the year.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 12/21/24.

Clippers vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Dec. 21: Look for Powell, L.A. to cover as road underdogs

Luka Doncic will miss another matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Doncic was absent against the Clippers in L.A.’s comfortable win on Thursday. I’m backing the Clips to at least keep it close again tonight while looking for production from Kyrie Irving and Norman Powell in a +285 SGP.

Check out my Clippers vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 21.

Clippers vs. Mavericks predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104148

Parlay: Clippers +5.5 + Irving over 19.5 points + Powell over 3.5 threes (+300)

Clippers +5.5 (-143): Two nights ago, the Clippers routed the Doncic-less Mavericks, 118-95, in Dallas. Backing L.A. with points should be a no-brainer then, right?

I think so, though tonight’s rematch will include Irving on Dallas’ side, which should be a boon for the Mavs. That’s why I’ve tacked on a couple of extra points with the visitors.

At this number, I feel great about the Clippers. They’ve been one of the best ATS teams in the league, per Team Rankings:

18-10 ATS on the season (64.3%)
8-4 ATS as the road team

And remember, the Clippers beat the Mavericks on the road by 23 points just two nights ago. I don’t expect Irving to make enough of a difference for this pick to be a problem.

SGP legs

Irving over 19.5 points (-385): It’s fair to expect Irving to make some difference tonight, though, and a 20-point effort is perfectly attainable.

The eight-time all-star is averaging 23.9 PPG this season and has cashed this bet in 17 of 24 games.

Last year, Irving surpassed the 25-point threshold in both matchups against the Clippers — and that was with Doncic on the floor.

Without Doncic, Irving is averaging 25.7 PPG in six games. He finished with 19 points once and cashed this bet the other five times.

Powell over 3.5 threes (+114): Now for the riskiest pick of the bunch, which could also be a logical wager on its own.

Powell has arguably been the best 3-point shooter in the league this season, scoring at a 48.5% clip. That’s the highest 3PT% among all players averaging at least 5.0 attempts per game.

Over his past eight games, Powell has gone over 3.5 threes six times. He went 4-for-8 against Dallas on Thursday and should be encouraged to continue letting it fly.

Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 12/21/24.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 21: Bet on Jeremy Sochan, Jayson Tatum to fill the net

An MVP candidate and the NBA assists leader account for two of my three prop bets on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum tends to feast against the Chicago Bulls, and I think his points prop is set too low for tonight’s matchup. Elsewhere, I’m fading Trae Young against a scrappy Memphis Grizzlies squad and looking for decent production from Jeremy Sochan.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 21.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Sochan over 14.5 points (-121)

Embed: #104144

In his third NBA season, Sochan has cut way down on 3-point shots and enjoyed a nice bump in his overall scoring production.

From 3.1 attempted 3s last year, Sochan is down to just 1.6 this season. He’s committed to making hay at the rim — and it’s paying off.

Sochan is averaging 15.1 PPG in Year 3 after an 11.3 PPG average over his first two seasons.

This year, the power forward attempts 65% of his shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass. That’s in the 100th percentile among NBA players.

He’s scored 15+ points in three straight games.

Tonight’s matchup is a solid one for Sochan, who sees the Portland Trail Blazers for the second time this month. Portland allows the fourth-highest FG% around the rim (69.4%), so Sochan should be encouraged to remain active in that area.

Including his Dec. 13 matchup against Portland, Sochan has cashed this bet in four of his past five games in this matchup. That includes a 31-point performance when they last met in San Antonio in January.

Key stat: Sochan has scored 15-plus points in nine of 14 games this season.

Quick picks

Tatum over 25.5 points (-125): This line is at least two points lower than I’d expect it to be, and that makes it look like a great value.

For one thing, Tatum’s track record against this number is very strong:

28.3 PPG this season
26+ points in 17/25 games

Also, tonight’s Celtics/Bulls game has the highest projected total of the entire NBA slate (245 points). Boston has the No. 3 offensive rating in the league, while Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace.

Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Tatum has scored 28.9 PPG over nine matchups against the Bulls. He’s scored 30-plus points in both meetings this year.

Young under 11.5 assists (-129): Young leads the NBA in assists this season.

But he’s been productive on the glass and as a distributor, bringing in averages of 10.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists into tonight’s matchup. Both are just off his career-best marks.

Adebayo is staring down a plus matchup in that regard, as the Thunder rank last in the NBA in rebounding rate and allow the fourth-most assists per game to centres.

The three-time all-star has cleared this line in seven of his last nine contests and is averaging 12.9 rebounds and 5.9 assists in seven December games.

Picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 12/21/2024.