NBA Archives - Page 113 of 146

Spurs vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Jan. 3: Back Jokic and Wembanyama at +270

The present and the future clash when the Denver Nuggets host the San Antonio Spurs on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic is the best player on earth and Victor Wembanyama is up next. I have prop bets on both superstars in this +270 SGP, which also features Denver to win.

Check out my Spurs vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 3.

Spurs vs. Nuggets predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #105028

Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Jokic over 1.5 threes + Wembanyama over 24.5 points (+270)

Nuggets moneyline (-215): Denver is beginning to find its form, which should worry the rest of the league.

The Nuggets are 8-3 over their last 11 games, averaging 127.6 points per game.
That includes a 4-1 record at Ball Arena with the only loss coming to the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Jokic-led offence has put up 130-plus points in four straight games, winning each of its last three by 10+ points.

San Antonio is no longer a lottery team but I still don’t trust it against the league’s elite. Especially on the road.

The Spurs are 0-9 on the road against teams currently in a playoff spot.

SGP legs

Jokic over 1.5 threes (-182): Gone are the days when you could get this prop at a reasonable price.

Jokic has expanded his scoring bag by adding a lethal 3-point stroke to the arsenal. He’s making 2.2 threes a night at a stellar 49.2% clip.

The reigning MVP has been particularly trigger-happy since the start of December:

4.9 three-point attempts/game
2+ threes in 11/15 games

On the season, Jokic has cleared this mark in 20 of 29 games.

Wembayama over 24.5 points (-167): Wembanyama is living up to his alien moniker.

The 7-foot-4 sophomore is averaging 29.3 points in his last 10 games, clearing this total eight times.

Wemby has shot the lights out from deep during this stretch (3.7 makes at a 38.5% rate) and Denver allows the sixth-most 3s per game (14.1).

The Nuggets are also playing at a pace of 102.16 possessions per game — the fifth-fastest in basketball — meaning Wembanyama should get more looks than usual.

Back the burgeoning superstar in a solid matchup.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 01/03/2025

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 3: Back guards Trae Young, Kyrie Irving and Desmond Bane

Star point guards Trae Young and Kyrie Irving highlight Friday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Young has turned his season around and I like him to stay hot against the Los Angeles Lakers. Plays on Irving and Desmond Bane round out the recommendations.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 3.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Young over 23.5 points (-108)

Young’s scoring is way down but he’s heating up and gets the Lakers on a back-to-back.

The Atlanta Hawks aren’t strong defensively and will need to score plenty to keep up. Tonight’s total is 232.5, the third-highest of the nine-game slate.

These teams blew past that number when they met in December, a 134-132 overtime win for Atlanta.

Young dropped 31 points with five triples that game.

More recently, the star point guard is coming off back-to-back 30-point contests. He’s reached the 30-point mark four times in his last 10 games, averaging 25.7 points over that stretch.

Plenty of those buckets have come from beyond the arc, where the Lakers struggle (20th in opponent 3-point rate), providing Young an excellent opportunity to continue his big scoring output.

Key stat: Young has scored 23-plus points in six of his last seven games.

Quick picks

Irving over 2.5 threes (-150): I’m not confident this price is getting any better throughout the day and am getting in now.

Per StatMuse:

Irving is 7-3 against this number in 10 games this season without star teammate Luka Doncic.

He’s taken double-digit 3-point attempts in half of those games.

Irving is shooting a career-best 44.1% from the perimeter.

The NBA-best Cavaliers (29-4) pose a significant challenge for the undermanned Dallas Mavericks, but Cleveland has been carved up by point guards.

And Dallas, without Doncic, will need Irving firing on all cylinders.

Cleveland allows the fourth-most points and 3-pointers to PGs, according to Betting Pros.

Bane over 21.5 points (-112): The Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard averaged 23.7 points per game last season. That number has plummeted to 16.3 this year.

But Bane cleared this number in back-to-back games with teammate Ja Morant sidelined and is coming off a season-best 31-point effort.

Bane has topped this line in three of his last six games, averaging 22.3 points and scoring no fewer than 18.

We’re working with a small sample here but Bane is moving in the right direction and is a gifted scorer who can shoot from long range.

He was due for positive regression and Morant’s absence should only help that, as Bane will need to assume a larger offensive footprint.

Tonight, he’ll go to work against a Sacramento Kings defence that’s allowing the second-most points in the NBA to shooting guards.

Picks made at 12:45 p.m. ET on 01/03/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 3: Back guards Trae Young, Kyrie Irving and Desmond Bane

Star point guards Trae Young and Kyrie Irving highlight Friday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Young has turned his season around and I like him to stay hot against the Los Angeles Lakers. Plays on Irving and Desmond Bane round out the recommendations.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 3.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Young over 23.5 points (-115)

Embed: #105029

Young’s scoring is way down but he’s heating up and gets the Lakers on a back-to-back.

The Atlanta Hawks aren’t strong defensively and will need to score plenty to keep up. Tonight’s total is 232.5, the third-highest of the nine-game slate.

These teams blew past that number when they met in December, a 134-132 overtime win for Atlanta.

Young dropped 31 points with five triples that game.

More recently, the star point guard is coming off back-to-back 30-point contests. He’s reached the 30-point mark four times in his last 10 games, averaging 25.7 points over that stretch.

Plenty of those buckets have come from beyond the arc, where the Lakers struggle (20th in opponent 3-point rate), providing Young an excellent opportunity to continue his big scoring output.

Key stat: Young has scored 23-plus points in six of his last seven games.

Quick picks

Irving over 2.5 threes (-155): I’m not confident this price is getting any better throughout the day and am getting in now.

Per StatMuse:

Irving is 7-3 against this number in 10 games this season without star teammate Luka Doncic.

He’s taken double-digit 3-point attempts in half of those games.

Irving is shooting a career-best 44.1% from the perimeter.

The NBA-best Cavaliers (29-4) pose a significant challenge for the undermanned Dallas Mavericks, but Cleveland has been carved up by point guards.

And Dallas, without Doncic, will need Irving firing on all cylinders.

Cleveland allows the fourth-most points and 3-pointers to PGs, according to Betting Pros.

Bane over 21.5 points (-121): The Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard averaged 23.7 points per game last season. That number has plummeted to 16.3 this year.

But Bane cleared this number in back-to-back games with teammate Ja Morant sidelined and is coming off a season-best 31-point effort.

Bane has topped this line in three of his last six games, averaging 22.3 points and scoring no fewer than 18.

We’re working with a small sample here but Bane is moving in the right direction and is a gifted scorer who can shoot from long range.

He was due for positive regression and Morant’s absence should only help that, as Bane will need to assume a larger offensive footprint.

Tonight, he’ll go to work against a Sacramento Kings defence that’s allowing the second-most points in the NBA to shooting guards.

Picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 01/03/2025.

Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks Jan. 3: Bet on Malik Monk to shine in increased role

The Sacramento Kings host the Memphis Grizzlies in the NBA’s late-night Friday slate.

The pregame narrative: Malik Monk has taken an increased role for the Kings and run with it, which is why I like him tonight in a game with major scoring upside. For the Grizzlies, look to Jaren Jackson Jr. on a plus-money prop.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks for Jan. 3.

Grizzlies vs. Kings prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #105011

Best Bet: Monk over 18.5 points (-115)

Monk has long been one of the league’s top players off the bench, and he was the Sixth Man of the Year runner-up a season ago. But right now, he’s running with the ones — and thriving.

Since Nov. 27, Monk has played 30-plus minutes (i.e., starter’s minutes) in 16 straight games. Here’s how he’s fared:

18.1 PPG
19+ points in 8/16 games
14.7 FGA (8.1 3PA)

Prior to this stretch of extended work, Monk averaged 12.7 PPG on 10.5 shots (4.5 threes).

Though his scoring average with starter’s minutes still falls a hair below this line, Monk is a good bet to cash the over against the lightning-quick Grizzlies.

Memphis is playing at a pace of 105.5 possessions per game. That’s on track to be the NBA’s fastest pace in over 30 years.

That helps explain why tonight’s matchup has the highest projected total of the night (240 points) despite Memphis owning the league’s fourth-best defensive rating.

With tons of possessions to go around, Monk should get plenty of shots up. This prop should also be aided by the fact that Keegan Murray (10.9 FGA) is doubtful for the Kings.

In two games without Murray this season, Monk has scored 20-plus points both times.

Key stat: Monk has cashed this bet in three of four games against the Grizzlies since last season.

Quick pick

Jackson over 2.5 assists (+105): Jackson only averages 1.8 assists per game and will never be a primary facilitator from the centre position. But he’s been more active as a passer in recent games.

3.7 assists/game in his past seven games
3+ assists in five straight

Jackson collected four assists in back-to-back games, which coincided with the injury absence of point guard Ja Morant. With Morant sidelined again tonight, other players will have to step up.

The Kings allow the 10th-most assists per game to opposing centres (4.5), per Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 01/03/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 2: Back D’Angelo Russell and Bam Adebayo on Thursday night

D’Angelo Russell and Bam Adebayo make up tonight’s top prop picks for Thursday’s six-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Russell to score in his second game with the Brooklyn Nets and I like the Miami Heat’s Adebayo on a combo market.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 2.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Russell over 13.5 points (-130)

There’s big blowout potential here, but that might not impact Russell as much as others, like Milwaukee Bucks stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.

Milwaukee is a 13-point home favourite as of Thursday afternoon and should dismantle the Nets, who are 2-8 over their last 10 and 25th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Russell’s second game with the Nets following a trade from the Lakers will come on a back-to-back after excelling in a loss to the Toronto Raptors last night.

22 points in 25 minutes
9-of-13 from the field
2-of-6 from deep

Russell was wildly inconsistent with the Lakers, seeing his role reduced in what turned into a poor fit.

But he’s always been a scorer and threat from the outside, averaging at least 15.5 points a season in every year outside of his rookie campaign.

Russell should have more rope and opportunity in Brooklyn, and volume alone will have him flirt with this number most nights.

The veteran should have the ball in his hands a lot and tonight he’ll do it against a Bucks team that has struggled to defend guards.

Quick pick

Adebayo over 28.5 points/rebounds (-120): The Heat face the Indiana Pacers and Adebayo has punished them twice already this season.

Nov. 15: 30 points, 11 boards
Nov. 17: 28 points, 8 boards

Adebayo’s scoring has been inconsistent, as he’s averaging his lowest output (16.4/game) since the 2019-20 season.

But he’s been a strong rebounder (9.9/game) and centres have had their way on the glass with the undersized Pacers.

Indiana allows the fifth-most boards to the position and is 24th in points allowed in the paint.

The Heat are on a back-to-back but this is a good matchup for the three-time all-star.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 01/02/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 2: Back Austin Reaves, D’Angelo Russell and Bam Adebayo

Two guards and Bam Adebayo make up tonight’s top prop picks for Thursday’s six-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: An Austin Reaves play is the best bet and I’m also backing his former teammate D’Angelo Russell. Lastly, I like the Miami Heat’s Adebayo on a combo market.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 2.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Reaves over 30.5 PRA (-118)

Embed: #104957

Reaves is on a heater and his Los Angeles Lakers get a favourable matchup to close out tonight’s NBA action.

The fourth-year guard is having a career-best season, averaging 18.3 points per game as a full-time starter.

Reaves averaged 22.1 PPG in eight December games, contributing 7.8 assists and 6.3 rebounds.

Even surrounded by Anthony Davis and LeBron James, there’s clearly room for Reaves — the team’s most active 3-point shooter who’s getting 34.5 minutes a night.

Thursday’s assignment comes against the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been torched by opposing backcourts this season.

Portland surrenders the third-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros.

The Blazers allow the fourth-most points to shooting guards.

The team is 29th in opponent 3-point percentage.

That all bodes well for Reaves, who’s coming off a monster 35-point, 10-assist, nine-rebound effort.

Key stat: The 26-year-old is averaging 29.0 points, 12.0 assists and 8.3 rebounds over his last three games.

Quick picks

Russell over 15.5 points (-115): There’s big blowout potential here, but that might not impact Russell as much as others, like Milwaukee Bucks stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.

Milwaukee is a 13-point home favourite as of Thursday afternoon and should dismantle the Brooklyn Nets, who are 2-8 over their last 10 and 25th in the NBA in defensive rating.

Russell’s second game with the Nets following a trade from the Lakers will come on a back-to-back after excelling in a loss to the Toronto Raptors last night.

22 points in 25 minutes
9-of-13 from the field
2-of-6 from deep

Russell was wildly inconsistent with the Lakers, seeing his role reduced in what turned into a poor fit.

But he’s always been a scorer and threat from the outside, averaging at least 15.5 points a season in every year outside of his rookie campaign.

Russell should have more rope and opportunity in Brooklyn, and volume alone will have him flirt with this number most nights.

The veteran should have the ball in his hands a lot and tonight he’ll do it against a Bucks team that has struggled to defend guards.

Adebayo over 29.5 points/rebounds (-120): The Heat face the Indiana Pacers and Adebayo has punished them twice already this season.

Nov. 15: 30 points, 11 boards
Nov. 17: 28 points, 8 boards

Adebayo’s scoring has been inconsistent, as he’s averaging his lowest output (16.4/game) since the 2019-20 season.

But he’s been a strong rebounder (9.9/game) and centres have had their way on the glass with the undersized Pacers.

Indiana allows the fifth-most boards to the position and is 24th in points allowed in the paint.

The Heat are on a back-to-back but this is a good matchup for the three-time all-star.

Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 01/02/2025.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks Jan. 2: Back Embiid to score, Maxey to be active on defence

The Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors battle in the Bay Area on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The 76ers are red-hot and Joel Embiid is back to filling the basket. I expect Embiid to have a big night and am also taking a rare defensive prop on Tyrese Maxey.

Check out my 76ers vs. Warriors prop picks for Jan. 2.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best Bet: Embiid over 27.5 points (-120)

Embiid missed yesterday’s game against the Sacramento Kings due to injury management and is officially listed as questionable tonight.

But load management has become synonymous with Philly’s centre, who said earlier this year that he may never play in a back-to-back again.

He should play tonight, and I’m bullish on a huge performance.

Embiid has cleared his point total in three straight games, including on Christmas when I backed him to go over 25.5 points against the Boston Celtics.

In the two games since then, he dropped 32 and 37 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.

This line is simply too low for a player who averaged north of 33 points in each of the last two seasons.

Embiid had an injury-riddled start to the season but is receiving heavy minutes again and seems to have his scoring touch back.

This is also a great matchup:

Golden State has the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (37.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Embiid takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.

The Warriors are 3-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. ET. This should be a close game where Embiid gets plenty of run.

Key stat: Embiid has scored 30-plus points in five of the last six games in which he played over 20 minutes.

Quick pick

Maxey over 1.5 steals (-138): Maxey is known for filling the basket, but not enough is made of his much-improved defence.

Philly’s point guard ranks second in the NBA in steals (2.1/game) and is coming off a five-steal night against the Kings.

He’s had at least one steal in every game this year, which gives us a solid floor to work with.

Maxey has had multiple steals in four of his last five games, with three-plus steals in three of those contests.

The Warriors aren’t necessarily a turnover-heavy team — ranking 14th in giveaways (14.4/game) — but this is more about the player than the matchup.

Picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks Jan. 2: Back Embiid to score, Maxey to be active on defence

The Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors battle in the Bay Area on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: The 76ers are red-hot and Joel Embiid is back to filling the basket. I expect Embiid to have a big night and am also taking a rare defensive prop on Tyrese Maxey.

Check out my 76ers vs. Warriors prop picks for Jan. 2.

76ers vs. Warriors prop picks

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104937

Best Bet: Embiid over 28.5 points (-113)

Embiid missed yesterday’s game against the Sacramento Kings due to injury management and is officially listed as questionable tonight.

But load management has become synonymous with Philly’s centre, who said earlier this year that he may never play in a back-to-back again.

He should play tonight, and I’m bullish on a huge performance.

Embiid has cleared his point total in three straight games, including on Christmas when I backed him to go over 25.5 points against the Boston Celtics.

In the two games since then, he dropped 32 and 37 points against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively.

This line is simply too low for a player who averaged north of 33 points in each of the last two seasons.

Embiid had an injury-riddled start to the season but is receiving heavy minutes again and seems to have his scoring touch back.

This is also a great matchup:

Golden State has the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (37.9%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Embiid takes 51% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 96th percentile of all NBA players.

The Warriors are 3-point favourites as of 11:30 a.m. ET. This should be a close game where Embiid gets plenty of run.

Key stat: Embiid has scored 30-plus points in five of the last six games in which he played over 20 minutes.

Quick pick

Maxey over 1.5 steals (-127): Maxey is known for filling the basket, but not enough is made of his much-improved defence.

Philly’s point guard ranks second in the NBA in steals (2.1/game) and is coming off a five-steal night against the Kings.

He’s had at least one steal in every game this year, which gives us a solid floor to work with.

Maxey has had multiple steals in four of his last five games, with three-plus steals in three of those contests.

The Warriors aren’t necessarily a turnover-heavy team — ranking 14th in giveaways (14.4/game) — but this is more about the player than the matchup.

Picks made at 11:38 a.m. ET 01/02/2025.

Celtics vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Jan. 2: Take the under but bet on Jayson Tatum

The Boston Celtics enter 2025 on a four-game Western Conference road trip, which begins on Thursday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are strong on defence, so I’m backing a teased-up under in this +370 SGP. But I also like Jayson Tatum to clear his points prop, and for Rudy Gobert to succeed on the glass.

Check out my Celtics vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 2.

Celtics vs. Timberwolves predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104887

Parlay: Under 225.5 points + Tatum over 25.5 points + Gobert over 9.5 rebounds (+370)

Under 225.5 points (-210): Only one-third of the NBA’s 30 teams are cashing unders at an above-50% clip this year. And two of those squads are the Celtics and Timberwolves.

Boston allows 108.9 PPG (7th in the NBA), while Minnesota allows 107.4 PPG (4th).

Each of their past three matchups in Minnesota went under 225.5 points.

In their lone matchup this season (in Boston), the Celtics and Timberwolves combined for 212 points.

Both sides are strong defensively, but I also like this under because neither team plays particularly fast. Boston and Minnesota rank 21st and 25th, respectively, in possessions per game.

In their past 15 games, the T-Wolves have hit this under 14 times.

SGP legs

Tatum over 25.5 points (-134): A teased-up under on the game total doesn’t have me shying away from backing Tatum.

The eighth-year forward is on career-high paces for rebounds and assists this year, but he’s still made room for a 28.3 PPG scoring average.

That has plenty to do with Boston’s 3-point-heavy philosophy. Tatum is attempting a career-high 10.5 threes, which certainly raises his scoring floor.

Tatum has cashed this bet in 19 of 30 games this season, which includes a Nov. 24 matchup against Minnesota. He finished with 26 points that night despite struggling from the floor (8-for-21).

Also, Tatum has cashed this bet in 11 of 13 road games.

Gobert over 9.5 rebounds (-148): Gobert grabbed a season-high 20 rebounds when he faced the Celtics in November. I’m only asking for half of that tonight in this SGP.

The one-time rebounding champ isn’t at the peak of his powers, but he’s still on track to average more than 10.0 rebounds for a 10th consecutive year.

Since the 2021-22 season, Gobert has averaged 12.2 RPG against the Celtics and cashed this bet in five of six matchups.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET 01/02/2025

76ers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Jan. 1: Bet on George and Fox at +300

The Philadelphia 76ers battle the Sacramento Kings in the final NBA game on New Year’s Day.

The pregame narrative: I’m a fan of the way the 76ers have been playing lately so I’ll back them on an alternate spread along with prop picks on Paul George and De’Aaron Fox in this +300 SGP.

Check out my 76ers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 1.

76ers vs. Kings predictions

Go to full NBA betting markets

Embed: #104880

Parlay: 76ers +9.5 + George over 4.5 assists + Fox over 24.5 points (+300)

76ers +9.5 (-200): Philadelphia is turning its season around and is 8-2 in the last 10 games.

The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid but things haven’t been as bleak without him over the last month or so.

Philly has covered this spread in five of the last six games that Embiid has been sidelined. The one blowout loss came against the league-best Cleveland Cavaliers (29-4).

On the other hand, the Kings are a disappointing 14-19 on the season. They are tied for the worst ATS record in the NBA (11-21-1), per Team Rankings.

Sacramento beat the Dallas Mavericks, 110-100, on Monday but lost the previous six games. Five of those defeats came at home.

SGP legs

George over 4.5 assists (-132): This isn’t a number George has cleared frequently but it’s a different story with Embiid out.

He averages 6.0 assists in games without Embiid.

George cleared this line in six of the last seven games where Embiid has been sidelined.

He’s been clearing this line with little issue, to be exact. He had eight-plus assists in five of those contests.

George’s usage rate will be up tonight and I predict his underrated playmaking skills shine through once again.

Fox over 24.5 points (-190): Fox has been one of the few bright spots on the lowly Kings.

He averages 26.5 PPG.

He’s cleared this line in six of the last seven games.

Over those seven contests, Fox is scoring 28.1 points on 21.4 field goal attempts per game (shooting 48.7%).

That is elite scoring production and I’m banking on it to continue as the Kings push for a midseason turnaround.

Picks made at 2:33 p.m. ET 01/01/2025