Category: NBA

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 1: Back Adebayo, Dinwiddie, Sarr on New Year’s Day

NBA prop bets

I’ve got three NBA prop bets to kick off 2025.

The pregame narrative: Bam Adebayo is the most notable name that I’m betting on today, as the big man has a promising matchup in front of him. I also have props on Spencer Dinwiddie and Alexandre Sarr.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 1.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Dinwiddie over 15.5 points (-125)

With injuries riddling the Dallas Mavericks’ roster, Dinwiddie has earned a more important role in the offence.

Luka Doncic is set to miss at least a month with an injury. Dallas coach Jason Kidd recently decided to give more minutes to Dinwiddie, and the results are encouraging.

Here are Dinwiddie’s stats as a starter this season:

  • 20.3 points per game
  • 3-1 against this line

He played 35-plus minutes in three of those games and most notably scored 30 points against the Sacramento Kings on Monday.

Kyrie Irving was out on Monday. But keep in mind that Dinwiddie scored 17 points on Dec. 28 in a game where Irving had 46.

As a secondary scoring option, Dinwiddie has proven he can still clear this modest line.

Key stat: The Rockets allow the 11th-most points per game (24.9) to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Adebayo over 27.5 points/rebounds (-125): Adebayo has been inconsistent this season but he can still dominate the right matchup.

The Pelicans allow the second-most points/rebounds to opposing centres per game (41.2).

They are currently relying on rookie centre Yves Missi to play 30-plus minutes every night. Missi has played well, but talented big men have been able to take advantage of his youth.

Adebayo is averaging 27 PR per game this season, so a slightly above-average performance would do the trick here.

Sarr over 12.5 points (-120): This is a play for all the basketball heads.

The second-overall pick is heating up for the Washington Wizards and I want in.

  • Sarr has cleared this line in eight of the past 13 games.
  • He scored less than 10 points just once in that span.

Sarr’s floor as a scorer is improving as he becomes more confident at the NBA level. Also, the Chicago Bulls struggle to contain opposing centres.

Chicago allows the fourth-most points per game (24.6) to the position, per Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 1:14 p.m. ET on 01/01/2025.

Nets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan 1: Expect Brooklyn to keep it close, Johnson to fill basket at +400

Nets vs. Raptors predictions

The Brooklyn Nets visit the struggling Toronto Raptors to kick off the new year.

The pregame narrative: I have no faith in Toronto, so I’m backing the Nets to cover an alternate spread. I also like the under and a Cameron Johnson prop pick in this +400 SGP.

Check out my Nets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 1.

Nets vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Nets +3.5 + Under 224.5 points + Johnson over 22.5 points (+400)

Nets +3.5 (-143): The Raptors have lost 11 games in a row and there’s no way I can get behind them right now.

On the season, Toronto has failed to cover this spread in 28 of 33 games. But the active 11-game losing streak has been particularly dark.

The horrid run of play started with a seven-point loss to the Nets and closed out with a 54-point beatdown by the Boston Celtics on Tuesday.

With no rest and important players like RJ Barrett and Gradey Dick on the injury report (both listed as questionable), it’s hard to see the Raptors winning by more than a few points, if at all.

Brooklyn made its second trade of the season recently, sending Dorian Finney-Smith to the Los Angeles Lakers for D’Angelo Russell and draft capital.

While Russell fit in terribly with the Lakers, the Nets are in desperate need of another ball handler after trading away Dennis Schroder.

Brooklyn’s new point guard is expected to make his first appearance for the team on Wednesday.

Do I think Brooklyn is a playoff team now? No. Do I think it’s good enough to beat Toronto for the second time in a few weeks? Yes.

SGP legs

Under 224.5 points (-163): A big part of the Raptors’ struggles is how awful their offence has been.

Toronto has averaged 95.6 points per game on its current 11-game losing streak. For context, the Orlando Magic currently score the fewest PPG (105.9) in the NBA.

The offence seriously missed Barrett and Dick yesterday as it scored 71 points against the Celtics.

You won’t be surprised to hear that that’s the fewest by a team in a game this season.

Brooklyn’s offence ranks the worst of the two teams this season, though, scoring the fifth-fewest points per game (107.8).

As mentioned before, I do expect Russell to help the offensive struggles but this is still a total I feel good about taking the under on.

Johnson over 19.5 points (-120): In that Dec. 19 meeting between Toronto and Brooklyn, Johnson scored 33 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field.

He went to the free throw line 12 times, which was a massive aid to that final stat line.

Jakob Poeltl is in for this game, however, meaning I don’t think Johnson will get fouled as much near the rim. But his potential as a scorer is still there in this matchup.

According to Fantasy Pros, the Raptors allow the fourth-most points per game to small forwards (23.5).

Having less playmaking responsibilities after the trade will help Johnson focus on scoring and that’s what he’s best at.

The forward shoots 48.8% from the field and 42.9% from 3-point range.

Picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET 01/01/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Jan. 1: Back Adebayo, Dinwiddie, Sarr on New Year’s Day

NBA prop bets

I’ve got three NBA prop bets to kick off 2025.

The pregame narrative: Bam Adebayo is the most notable name that I’m betting on today, as the big man has a promising matchup in front of him. I also have props on Spencer Dinwiddie and Alexandre Sarr.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 1.

NBA prop bets

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Embed: #104857

Best bet: Dinwiddie over 14.5 points (-139)

With injuries riddling the Dallas Mavericks’ roster, Dinwiddie has earned a more important role in the offence.

Luka Doncic is set to miss at least a month with an injury. Dallas coach Jason Kidd recently decided to give more minutes to Dinwiddie, and the results are encouraging.

Here are Dinwiddie’s stats as a starter this season:

  • 20.3 points per game
  • 4-0 against this line

He played 35-plus minutes in three of those games and most notably scored 30 points against the Sacramento Kings on Monday.

Kyrie Irving was out on Monday. But keep in mind that Dinwiddie scored 17 points on Dec. 28 in a game where Irving had 46.

As a secondary scoring option, Dinwiddie has proven he can still clear this modest line.

Key stat: The Rockets allow the 11th-most points per game (24.9) to point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Adebayo over 27.5 points/rebounds (-109): Adebayo has been inconsistent this season but he can still dominate the right matchup.

The Pelicans allow the second-most points/rebounds to opposing centres per game (41.2).

They are currently relying on rookie centre Yves Missi to play 30-plus minutes every night. Missi has played well, but talented big men have been able to take advantage of his youth.

Adebayo is averaging 27 PR per game this season, so a slightly above-average performance would do the trick here.

Sarr over 12.5 points (-112): This is a play for all the basketball heads.

The second-overall pick is heating up for the Washington Wizards and I want in.

  • Sarr has cleared this line in eight of the past 13 games.
  • He scored less than 10 points just once in that span.

Sarr’s floor as a scorer is improving as he becomes more confident at the NBA level. Also, the Chicago Bulls struggle to contain opposing centres.

Chicago allows the fourth-most points per game (24.6) to the position, per Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 1:14 p.m. ET on 01/01/2025.

Hawks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Jan. 1: Bet on Denver to win, Trae Young to score

Hawks vs. Nuggets predictions

For the second time in less than a month, the Denver Nuggets and Atlanta Hawks meet on the hardwood.

The pregame narrative: Denver is still one of the best home teams in the NBA, and I expect the Nuggets to kick off the new year with a win. Even so, I like Trae Young to go over his point total as he rides a scoring surge.

Check out my Hawks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 1.

Hawks vs. Nuggets predictions

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Embed: #104855

Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Over 241.5 points + Young over 21.5 points (+280)

Nuggets moneyline (-215): On Dec. 8, Denver bounced Atlanta on the road, 141-111.

Given how thoroughly dominant the Nuggets were in that game, I think a simple win on home court should be perfectly attainable.

Denver is 46-16 at home since the start of last season. All five of the Nuggets’ home losses this year came against strong teams, who collectively have a .720 win percentage this year.

Atlanta (18-15) is solid, but not in the tier of teams that has pushed Denver at Ball Arena.

The Nuggets have the sixth-best net rating in their past 10 games (+7.9). In the same span, the Hawks’ net rating is +0.9.

SGP legs

Over 241.5 points (-200): Regardless of who wins, one thing I expect from tonight is a lot of points.

The Nuggets have the highest overs percentage in the NBA (21-10, 67.7%), per Team Rankings. Right behind them are the Hawks at 22-11 (66.7%).

As mentioned above, Denver and Atlanta combined for 252 total points when they matched up in December. So although this is a hefty total — higher than any standard line across the league tonight — it’s one I know these teams can clear.

Denver has hit a 250-point total in seven of its past 10 games.

Young over 21.5 points (-143): Young only scored 15 points against Denver last month, but that’s an anomaly compared to his other recent output.

  • 25.2 PPG in his past nine games
  • 22+ points in 7/9 games since Dec. 6

Prior to this nine-game heater, Young had averaged 20.7 PPG over 22 games. Not bad relative to this line, but I’m also heartened by the recent uptick.

Young’s 3-point production has been key to his improved scoring, as he’s shooting 40.5% from deep over his past nine games.

Denver should be a good matchup for him to continue firing. The Nuggets allow the seventh-most made 3s in the NBA.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET 01/01/2025

Nets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Jan 1: Expect Brooklyn to keep it close, Johnson to fill basket at +325

Nets vs. Raptors predictions

The Brooklyn Nets visit the struggling Toronto Raptors to kick off the new year.

The pregame narrative: I have no faith in Toronto, so I’m backing the Nets to cover an alternate spread. I also like the under and a Cameron Johnson prop pick in this +325 SGP.

Check out my Nets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 1.

Nets vs. Raptors predictions

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Embed: #104849

Parlay: Nets +3.5 + Under 224.5 points + Johnson over 19.5 points (+325)

Nets +3.5 (-143): The Raptors have lost 11 games in a row and there’s no way I can get behind them right now.

On the season, Toronto has failed to cover this spread in 28 of 33 games. But the active 11-game losing streak has been particularly dark.

The horrid run of play started with a seven-point loss to the Nets and closed out with a 54-point beatdown by the Boston Celtics on Tuesday.

With no rest and important players like RJ Barrett and Gradey Dick on the injury report (both listed as questionable), it’s hard to see the Raptors winning by more than a few points, if at all.

Brooklyn made its second trade of the season recently, sending Dorian Finney-Smith to the Los Angeles Lakers for D’Angelo Russell and draft capital.

While Russell fit in terribly with the Lakers, the Nets are in desperate need of another ball handler after trading away Dennis Schroder.

Brooklyn’s new point guard is expected to make his first appearance for the team on Wednesday.

Do I think Brooklyn is a playoff team now? No. Do I think it’s good enough to beat Toronto for the second time in a few weeks? Yes.

SGP legs

Under 224.5 points (-167): A big part of the Raptors’ struggles is how awful their offence has been.

Toronto has averaged 95.6 points per game on its current 11-game losing streak. For context, the Orlando Magic currently score the fewest PPG (105.9) in the NBA.

The offence seriously missed Barrett and Dick yesterday as it scored 71 points against the Celtics.

You won’t be surprised to hear that that’s the fewest by a team in a game this season.

Brooklyn’s offence ranks the worst of the two teams this season, though, scoring the fifth-fewest points per game (107.8).

As mentioned before, I do expect Russell to help the offensive struggles but this is still a total I feel good about taking the under on.

Johnson over 19.5 points (-210): In that Dec. 19 meeting between Toronto and Brooklyn, Johnson scored 33 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field.

He went to the free throw line 12 times, which was a massive aid to that final stat line.

Jakob Poeltl is in for this game, however, meaning I don’t think Johnson will get fouled as much near the rim. But his potential as a scorer is still there in this matchup.

According to Fantasy Pros, the Raptors allow the fourth-most points per game to small forwards (23.5).

Having less playmaking responsibilities after the trade will help Johnson focus on scoring and that’s what he’s best at.

The forward shoots 48.8% from the field and 42.9% from 3-point range.

Picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET 01/01/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Dec. 31: Back Edwards, Randle against OKC

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder close out 2024 with a monster matchup.

The pregame narrative: The T-Wolves and Thunder are two elite teams led by bright young stars. I’m backing Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to have big games for Minnesota on the road

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Dec. 31.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

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Best Bet: Edwards over 23.5 points (-112)

Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Edwards is having a bad month.

The superstar guard has seen a massive dip in scoring:

  • October-November (19 games): 27.7 PPG, 21.2 FGA, 45.3 FG%
  • December (12 games): 20.5 PPG, 18.5 FGA, 42.3 FG%

Edwards is taking fewer, less accurate shots and his points totals have corrected as a result. But I think this line is too low even against an elite defensive team like OKC.

Even in a bad month, he’s 5-7 against this line. And it’s not like 18.5 field goal attempts per game is bad from a volume standpoint.

The Thunder allow the seventh-fewest points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros. They also have the second-best home defensive rating in basketball.

But somehow, Edwards has cooked in this building.

He’s scored 24-plus points in four of his last five games here, including both games last season.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 26.5 PPG on the road this season, clearing this mark in five of his last six road games.

Quick pick

Randle over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-118): In an ideal world, Randle will be dishing it and Edwards will be scoring.

The first-year Timberwolf has been a solid facilitator, averaging 4.4 assists per game. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 6.6 assists and has cleared this line four times.

But it’s on the glass that I expect Randle to really flourish.

The Thunder have been a much better rebounding team with Isaiah Hartenstein in the mix but still aren’t great. They are 19th in rebounding rate since he joined on Nov. 20 and were dead last beforehand.

This is a plus matchup for Randle as OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game to power forwards.

The over on his 6.5 rebound total carries -141 juice so I’ll instead pivot to this rebound and assist line.

Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 12/31/2024.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Dec. 31: Back Edwards, Randle against OKC

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder close out 2024 with a monster matchup.

The pregame narrative: The T-Wolves and Thunder are two elite teams led by bright young stars. I’m backing Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to have big games for Minnesota on the road

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Dec. 31.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

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Embed: #104786

Best Bet: Edwards over 22.5 points (-137)

Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Edwards is having a bad month.

The superstar guard has seen a massive dip in scoring:

  • October-November (19 games): 27.7 PPG, 21.2 FGA, 45.3 FG%
  • December (12 games): 20.5 PPG, 18.5 FGA, 42.3 FG%

Edwards is taking fewer, less accurate shots and his points totals have corrected as a result. But I think this line is too low even against an elite defensive team like OKC.

Even in a bad month, he’s 6-6 against this line. And it’s not like 18.5 field goal attempts per game is bad from a volume standpoint.

The Thunder allow the seventh-fewest points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros. They also have the second-best home defensive rating in basketball.

But somehow, Edwards has cooked in this building.

He’s scored 24-plus points in four of his last five games here, including both games last season.

Key stat: Edwards is averaging 26.5 PPG on the road this season, clearing this mark in five of his last six road games.

Quick pick

Randle over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-106): In an ideal world, Randle will be dishing it and Edwards will be scoring.

The first-year Timberwolf has been a solid facilitator, averaging 4.4 assists per game. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 6.6 assists and has cleared this line four times.

But it’s on the glass that I expect Randle to really flourish.

The Thunder have been a much better rebounding team with Isaiah Hartenstein in the mix but still aren’t great. They are 19th in rebounding rate since he joined on Nov. 20 and were dead last beforehand.

This is a plus matchup for Randle as OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game to power forwards.

The over on his 6.5 rebound total carries -141 juice so I’ll instead pivot to this rebound and assist line.

Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 12/31/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 31: Back Victor Wembanyama and Kevin Durant on New Year’s Eve

NBA prop bets

Two superstars headline Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is in the midst of a monster stretch and should stay hot against the Los Angeles Clippers. I’m also backing Norman Powell to score in that matchup and Kevin Durant on the glass against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 31.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-125)

We’re starting to see a slight market correction with Wembanyama’s point total headed north of 25 — but I still think this line is too low.

San Antonio’s center has been on a scoring binge, spurned by high volume and solid 3-point shooting.

  • Wembanyama is averaging 28.1 PPG in his last 15 games.
  • He’s cleared this mark in 9/15 games with 25+ points 11 times.
  • In that span, he’s shooting 36.9% from deep on 10.5 attempts per game.

Wembanyama has cleared this mark in five of his last six games. He dropped 42 points against the New York Knicks on Christmas and just had 34 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday.

Those are two of the better defensive teams in the league so I’m not worried about Los Angeles — which ranks fourth in defensive efficiency — slowing him down.

After all, the 7-foot-4 phenom is practically unguardable. He’s still not taking as many shots near the basket as I would like but you can’t argue with Wemby’s productivity right now.

Wembanyama fell just shy of this mark with 22 points on 9-of-22 shooting in early November. But that was when he was in a shooting funk. If we see that volume tonight, I’m confident he can blow by this total.

Key stat: Wembanyama is averaging 32.2 points in his last six games.

Quick picks

Powell over 23.5 points (-125): Here’s a guy whose point total hasn’t caught up with his production.

Powell has turned into the alpha dog on a surprisingly good Clippers team. He’s averaging a career-best 24.6 PPG and has been on fire in December:

  • 26.7 PPG
  • 50.0 FG%, 41.9 3PT%
  • 8-2 against this line

L.A.’s shooting guard has cleared this mark in six straight while averaging right around 20 shots per night.

I love to see that type of volume, especially in an exploitable matchup.

The Spurs have the seventh-worst 3-point defence (43.7%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Powell takes 27% of his shots from that area of the court which ranks in the 76th percentile for all NBA players.

Durant over 7.5 rebounds (-134): You wouldn’t normally see Durant’s rebounding total this high but it makes sense given the circumstances.

Both teams’ starting centers — Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic (suspension) and Memphis’ Zach Edey (concussion) — are out.

Nurkic is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game while Edey was putting up 10.5 boards per night in December.

Standing at 6-foor-11 with an alien-like wingspan, Durant’s rebound floor has always been high.

He’s averaged at least 6.4 rebounds per game since his sophomore season and has cleared this mark in three of his last seven games.

Durant has recorded double-digit boards in three of his last six games without Nurkic.

Picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 12/31/2024.

Cavaliers vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Dec. 31: Back LeBron against hometown team in +850 wager

Cavaliers vs. Lakers predictions

The Los Angeles Lakers host the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA’s New Year’s Eve nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland is the favourite, but I’ll buy extra points with it in the second game of a back-to-back. I’m also backing LeBron James, Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell in this +850 behemoth SGP.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 31.

Cavaliers vs. Lakers predictions

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Embed: #104775

Parlay: Cavaliers +3.5 + James over 23.5 points + Mobley over 16.5 points + Mitchell over 5.5 assists (+850)

Cavaliers +3.5 (-305): Cleveland owns the NBA’s best ATS record at 23-9-0 and is 4-2-0 ATS with no days rest.

With that being said, the Lakers have been playing some impressive ball lately, and something about LeBron facing his former team scares me a bit.

I expect the first-place Cavs to keep this one close still. They have covered in 11 of their last 12 games and seven straight heading into the New Year’s Eve matchup.

Cleveland also smoked the Lakers in their latest matchup 134-110 on Oct. 30. They are seeking an eighth straight win and 12th road win on the season.

SGP legs

James over 23.5 points (-117): LeBron just celebrated his 40th birthday yesterday, so you know what that means — a nice birthday bump for Benjamin Buckets.

Between the birthday and playing his former and hometown team, I think the narrative aspect alone makes this intriguing. But let’s get deeper into it.

LeBron has been on a tear in December, averaging just south of 26 PPG in nearly 35 minutes per game. His field goal attempts have increased over that stretch from his season average (18.1) to 20.8.

He’s cleared this mark in three straight games and six of his last nine.

Over his illustrious career, LeBron has fared well against the Cavaliers. In 23 games, he’s averaged 28.3 points.

I anticipate these trends to continue tonight with a lot riding on this game.

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Mobley over 16.5 points (-129): Mobley had an off night yesterday against the Golden State Warriors but I won’t let that steer me away.

Cleveland had an 18-point lead heading into the fourth quarter where Golden State never really made it close. Mobley also ran into some early foul trouble, limiting him to just 24 minutes of action.

In his fourth season in the NBA, Mobley continues to get better each year. Now averaging north of 18 PPG on the season after an incredible run over the past five weeks.

  • In his last 13 games, the Cavs power forward is averaging 19.4 points.
  • He’s 58% shooting from the floor and an incredible 47% from deep during that stretch.

Mobley has cleared this mark in nine of those games. He also set a new career-high with 41 points on Dec. 7 against the Hornets.

If he stays out of foul trouble and the game doesn’t get out of hand, I expect him to easily clear this line.

Mitchell over 5.5 assists (+125): Mitchell has been known to be a scorer and less of a playmaker throughout his career in the NBA.

This season Mitchell has learned he can’t do it all himself, and it’s working. His Cavaliers are in first place in the league with a 28-4 record.

The Cavs own the league’s second-highest assists ratio (20.6) and tied for fifth in assists/game (28.8).

The five-time all-star is averaging 5.9 assists in his last 11 games, clearing this line in seven.

Los Angeles allows the fourth-most assists per game to opposing shooting guards, according to Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:33 a.m. ET 12/31/2024

Best NBA prop bets Dec. 31: Back Victor Wembanyama and Kevin Durant on New Year’s Eve

NBA prop bets

Two superstars headline Tuesday’s New Year’s Eve NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama is in the midst of a monster stretch and should stay hot against the Los Angeles Clippers. I’m also backing Norman Powell to score in that matchup and Kevin Durant on the glass against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 31.

NBA prop bets

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Embed: #104757

Best bet: Wembanyama over 25.5 points (-117)

We’re starting to see a slight market correction with Wembanyama’s point total headed north of 25 — but I still think this line is too low.

San Antonio’s center has been on a scoring binge, spurned by high volume and solid 3-point shooting.

  • Wembanyama is averaging 28.1 PPG in his last 15 games.
  • He’s cleared this mark in 9/15 games with 25+ points 11 times.
  • In that span, he’s shooting 36.9% from deep on 10.5 attempts per game.

Wembanyama has cleared this mark in five of his last six games. He dropped 42 points against the New York Knicks on Christmas and just had 34 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday.

Those are two of the better defensive teams in the league so I’m not worried about Los Angeles — which ranks fourth in defensive efficiency — slowing him down.

After all, the 7-foot-4 phenom is practically unguardable. He’s still not taking as many shots near the basket as I would like but you can’t argue with Wemby’s productivity right now.

Wembanyama fell just shy of this mark with 22 points on 9-of-22 shooting in early November. But that was when he was in a shooting funk. If we see that volume tonight, I’m confident he can blow by this total.

Key stat: Wembanyama is averaging 32.2 points in his last six games.

Quick picks

Powell over 23.5 points (-124): Here’s a guy whose point total hasn’t caught up with his production.

Powell has turned into the alpha dog on a surprisingly good Clippers team. He’s averaging a career-best 24.6 PPG and has been on fire in December:

  • 26.7 PPG
  • 50.0 FG%, 41.9 3PT%
  • 8-2 against this line

L.A.’s shooting guard has cleared this mark in six straight while averaging right around 20 shots per night.

I love to see that type of volume, especially in an exploitable matchup.

The Spurs have the seventh-worst 3-point defence (43.7%), according to Cleaning the Glass. Powell takes 27% of his shots from that area of the court which ranks in the 76th percentile for all NBA players.

Durant over 7.5 rebounds (-118): You wouldn’t normally see Durant’s rebounding total this high but it makes sense given the circumstances.

Both teams’ starting centers — Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic (suspension) and Memphis’ Zach Edey (concussion) — are out.

Nurkic is averaging 9.5 rebounds per game while Edey was putting up 10.5 boards per night in December.

Standing at 6-foor-11 with an alien-like wingspan, Durant’s rebound floor has always been high.

He’s averaged at least 6.4 rebounds per game since his sophomore season and has cleared this mark in three of his last seven games.

Durant has recorded double-digit boards in three of his last six games without Nurkic.

Picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 12/31/2024.