Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.
It’s a fresh week in MLB, with 10 new matchups set to begin.
The latest: Yusei Kikuchi is off to a nice start with the Houston Astros, but tonight he’ll face a Boston Red Sox team that has given him plenty of trouble. In the late window, the Seattle Mariners look to avoid spiralling further out of wild-card contention as they square off with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Check out the latest MLB odds for Monday, Aug. 19.
The Astros are 3-0 through Kikuchi’s first three starts with the team. But now he faces a Red Sox lineup that is 16-for-49 (.327) against him with a .714 SLG. Kikuchi has allowed 15 runs on 23 hits against Boston since the start of last year (12.2 innings).
The Royals have outscored their opponents 32-4 in the past four games, easily cashing on the run line each time. The Angels have lost by multiple runs in five of their past six games.
Michael King’s past seven starts: 1.94 ERA, 11.2 K/9, .507 opponent OPS. The Padres are 6-1 in that span.
Seattle is on the final stop of its three-city road trip after going 1-5 through Detroit and Pittsburgh. The Mariners have MLB’s third-worst run line record as road underdogs this year (12-15), per Team Rankings.
The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers meet in the Little League Classic on Sunday night.
The pregame narrative: Marcus Stroman tends to excel away from Yankee Stadium, so I’m backing him to get deep into this game. This +350 ticket also includes Aaron Judge to record a hit and the under on the game total.
Overall, he has a 4.01 ERA. On the road, that number is much lower (2.83).
Additionally, he also has career success against this Detroit offence. The Tigers lineup is 3-for-19 against Stroman, and Javier Baez is the only one to record a hit off him.
In his first start of the season against Detroit, Stroman went 5.1 innings and allowed one run on three hits. He did walk five batters, which got his pitch count up to 90.
Regardless, Stroman was dealing. If he can keep the walks under control tonight, he should clear this line once again.
Other parlay picks
Judge over 0.5 hits (-210): You won’t often see a price like this for the AL MVP favourite to record a hit, so let’s take advantage.
I know Tarik Skubal is the main reason for Judge’s line, but historically the slugger has been good against the Tigers’ ace. In 11 at-bats, Judge has five hits off Skubal (and four went for extra bases).
The Yankees’ slugger has incredible numbers this season, and the stretch he’s been on since May 3 is one of the best ever.
In 89 games since then, Judge is batting .385 with a 1.344 OPS, 38 homers and 93 RBI.
At this price, I’d feel foolish not adding Judge to this parlay.
Under 8.5 runs (-132): Going off what I said about Stroman earlier, the under is a solid addition to this parlay.
Judge may have Skubal’s number, but other core Yankees hitters haven’t had the same fortune.
The rest of New York’s lineup is 11-for-54 (.204) against the AL Cy Young favourite with 21 Ks.
Skubal’s first start against New York finished with seven total runs, while Stroman’s first start against the Tigers this season finished with three total runs.
I’m expecting much of the same when these two go head-to-head on Sunday night.
Sunday’s MLB prop bets highlight two infielders and one starting pitcher.
The pregame narrative: George Kirby is a hard-throwing righty for the Seattle Mariners and I’m expecting him to top his strikeout prop in a plus matchup. Later on, bet on Nolan Arenado and Corey Seager to have successful days at the plate.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 18.
Seattle’s starter is in the 90th percentile for chase rate (33.2%), per Baseball Savant. Pair that with a 99th percentile walk rate (2.9%) and you have a pretty good formula for a strikeout machine.
To put into perspective how good he is at limiting walks, Kirby has walked only 17 batters in 144.2 innings pitched this season.
That means the vast majority of at-bats end with a ball in play or three strikes against the hitter.
Furthermore, Kirby has an excellent matchup to rack up the Ks today. The Pittsburgh Pirates strike out the fourth most per game (9.34) across the majors. Pittsburgh has allowed four straight starting pitchers to go over this mark.
Kirby has fanned six or more batters in five of his last seven starts.
Key stat: This season, Kirby ranks 13th in the AL with 143 strikeouts.
Quick picks
Arenado over 0.5 runs (+132): Arenado sees a familiar foe tonight in Clayton Kershaw.
The two have duelled 75 times and the six-time Silver Slugger has had ample success.
Arenado is 22-for-72 (.306) lifetime against Kershaw with five home runs. More importantly, he’s only struck out 11 times. That tells me he sees the ball well out of his counterpart’s hand.
The third baseman is also having a great month. So far in August, Arenado is slashing .304/.361/.464. He may not have the same power he did years ago, but his strong play has led to six runs in his last eight games.
Considering bettors are getting a nice underdog price here, I think it’s worth taking a shot at Arenado’s runs prop.
Seager over 1.5 total bases (+110): The Rangers star has limited experience against Pablo Lopez but the results are encouraging.
Two sluggers and an all-star pitcher are the target of Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: My best bet involves Yordan Alvarez doing damage in an intriguing matchup tonight. Elsewhere, I have eyes on a Dylan Cease strikeouts prop while also taking Jose Ramirez to score a run at plus money.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 17.
The Padres’ ace has held Colorado’s lineup to a .217 average (13-for-60) in his career. That includes 21 Ks and just four walks.
It’s not too surprising considering the Rockies strike out 9.8 times per game (second-most in MLB).
Cease is also having the second-best season of his career, posting a 3.41 ERA and a career-best 4.0 K/BB ratio.
His 11.4 K/9 ranks fourth in the majors and Colorado is a swing-happy team. I like the value here on the hard-throwing righty to record eight-plus strikeouts.
Ramirez over 0.5 runs (+125): Cleveland’s third baseman has been on a tear since the MLB All-Star Game.
He’s batting .317 with a 1.025 OPS in 27 games since the break. That includes hitting nine homers and scoring 22 runs.
Ramirez has struck out just 12 times in the past month and is getting on base at a high clip (.372 OBP) over that time.
The result is that the switch-hitting slugger is finding himself in scoring position … a lot.
Over the last five games alone, Ramirez has crossed home plate seven times. He’s 1-for-2 lifetime against Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Freddy Peralta with a walk. It’s a limited sample size but it’s nice to see heading into a meeting with the struggling righty.
Peralta has given up 13 earned runs over his last four starts including seven homers.
Three moneyline favourites make up Saturday’s MLB parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking for win behind Bobby Miller. I’m expecting them to get it done while adding on San Diego Padres moneyline. Lastly, I’m backing the Cleveland Guardians as a small underdog to round out a +430 ticket.
Dodgers moneyline (-132): Miller hasn’t had the best numbers in his seven outings this season. The righty has a whopping 8.07 ERA and 1.83 WHIP, which includes getting shelled for nine runs against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last start on July 9 before being sent to the minors.
In his first start of the season, Miller threw 6.0 scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals. He allowed just three runners and struck out 11 batters.
The 25-year-old proved to be a quality MLB starter in his rookie season, recording an 11-4 record and 3.76 ERA. He missed two months with shoulder inflammation, which could explain why he struggled upon returning in July.
Miller is the reason we’re getting a nice number on the L.A. moneyline and I’m predicting a good matchup here for him to get back on track. After all, St. Louis’ lineup is just 7-for-32 against him (.218) with 13 Ks.
If that doesn’t go to plan, it’s nice to know bettors have the Dodgers’ offence to fall back on.
The lineup has limited at-bats against Cardinals’ starter Andre Pallante but it shouldn’t matter. The righty has a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts at home.
Other parlay picks
Padres moneyline (-200): My parlay picks yesterday fell one short and it was the Padres who let me down. However, today’s matchup is even better.
San Diego sends Dylan Cease to the mound and the ace has had success against this offence in the past. The Rockies’ lineup is 13-for-60 (.217) lifetime against Cease with 21 Ks.
Opposite him starts Kyle Freeland who has had a different outcome against San Diego’s lineup.
The Padres’ bats are 51-for-158 (.323) in their careers against Freeland with only 19 strikeouts. I’m expecting the offence to do some damage.
Although they lost yesterday, the Padres are still 19-4 in their last 23 games and have a distinct advantage on the mound tonight.
Cleveland sends Tanner Bibee to the mound and he’s been efficient all season long.
Bibee boasts a 10-4 record and a 3.39 ERA. Over his last four starts, the right-handed hurler has given up four earned runs in 22.2 innings. Two of those starts came against the high-scoring Padres and Twins.
In contrast, Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Freddy Peralta has given up 13 earned runs in 22.1 IP across his last four starts. During those outings, Peralta allowed seven homers.
Before losing last night, Cleveland was on a five-game win streak where the side averaged 4.8 runs per game. I like the pitching matchup for the Guardians here and think it’s worth taking them at the underdog price.
This weekend’s big UFC 305 card is headlined by Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya.
The pregame narrative: Adesanya makes his return to challenge for the middleweight title and I’m backing his main event bout with Du Plessis to go the distance. Earlier on, I’m expecting Carlos Prates to win by finish and Jesus Aguilar to get his hand raised as a pretty sizeable underdog on the prelims.
Check out my UFC 305 picks for August 17.
UFC 305 picks overview
Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
Best Bet: Du Plessis/Adesanya over 4.5 rounds (-107)
Despite the bad blood that has boiled over in the build-up, both these fighters have a history to support this bout reaching the final bell.
Du Plessis won the middleweight belt at UFC 297 in Toronto by decision over Sean Strickland, who defeated Adesanya to end his title reign.
Du Plessis has only been knocked out once in his career (in 2018 before his UFC tenure).
Adesanya built up a reputation over his time as champ as being a boring point fighter. Six of his nine title fights went to the decision.
Although not the most exciting, that tends to happen with long-time champions.
His one career loss inside the distance came against Alex Pereira but it was well into the fifth round and this line still would’ve cashed in that instance.
These two are among the top defensive strikers in the UFC, which is crucial when backing an over.
Both guys boast a striking defence rate above 55%, meaning less than half the strikes thrown against them connect.
Key Stat: Seven of the last nine middleweight title fights have gone over 4.5 rounds.
Other picks
Prates to win by finish (-122): The Brazillian made quite a few fans with his knockout of the night over Charles Radtke.
But that was nothing out of the ordinary — he has won his last eight fights (two in the UFC) by knockout.
Prates has never seen the third round in his MMA career and is on a 12-1 run overall.
His opponent, Li Jingliang, was quite active in 2021/2022 when he stepped into the octagon three times in less than a year.
The 36-year-old has been away from competition since, which is worrisome for a fighter his age. Two years off with injury can be hard to come back from, especially against an opponent this dangerous.
“The Leech” will be trying to overcome a six-inch reach disadvantage as well. A formula for disaster against a sniper of a striker like Prates.
I expect the Brazillian to find his mark and end this bout with strikes. But he’s also developed an underrated submission game to fall back on.
Aguilar to win (+180): Finally, I want to take a risk on a nicely sized underdog from the prelims.
Aguilar is a 10-2 flyweight who’s 2-1 in the UFC. His one loss came to Tatsuro Taira who is most likely the next in line for a title shot.
His other career loss came in his first bout back in 2015. He’s in strong form, creating value here.
Standing across from him will be Stewart Nicoll — an 8-0 prospect from Australia.
He has potential but is yet to step into a UFC cage and his career opponents have a combined record of 28-17 on the regional scene. There are many fighters within the promotion with more fights on their record than that.
It would be a different story if Aguilar was unproven or on the verge of getting cut. But he’s proven he belongs on the biggest stage and is worth taking at this price against a newcomer.
One moneyline favourite and the opposite sides of two totals make up Friday’s MLB parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres are MLB’s hottest team and I’m backing them to continue their momentum in Colorado. Elsewhere, I’m expecting offence in a Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals matchup and am fading runs in Milwaukee to close out today’s parlay.
Check out the best MLB parlay picks for Friday, August 16.
Parlay: Padres ML + Dodgers/Cardinals over 8.5 runs + Guardians/Brewers under 8.5 runs (+353)
Padres moneyline (-180): San Diego is a mindblowing 19-3 in its last 22 games and is making a push for the NL West title.
The team hasn’t lost a series since the all-star break. I’m expecting that to stay true this weekend, starting with a win tonight.
Offence has come in abundance over the 22-game run as the Padres have averaged 6.1 runs per game. For context, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors with 5.3 runs per game over the entire season.
The Padres have a +65 run differential over those 22 games which is higher than all but eight teams have for the year overall.
That’s an encouraging group of stats to see heading into Coors Field for a series.
This exact pitching matchup took place on August 4 when San Diego walked away with a 10-2 win.
The offence hit two homers off Cal Quantrill. That resulted in just 4.1 innings worth of action for the Rockies starter.
Other parlay picks
Dodgers vs. Cardinals over 8.5 runs (-159): The Cardinals are rolling with Miles Mikolas, who’s been inconsistent all season. He carries an 8-9 record along with a 5.31 ERA into tonight’s contest.
Here are some of the Dodgers’ career numbers against the righty:
Freddie Freeman: 8-17 (.471), three home runs
Shohei Ohtani: 4-5 (.800), 1 double
Mookie Betts: 3-7 (.429), 1 home run
If these three are up to standard tonight, runs are surely to follow.
On the other side, the Dodgers are expecting to start rookie Justin Wrobleski.
The 24-year-old has been decent through four starts this season with an ERA of 4.05 but advanced metrics show he’s been the beneficiary of some good luck.
According to Baseball Savant, Wrobleski has an xERA of 5.08 and currently sits in the bottom 50 percentile for a majority of the site’s advanced stats including whiff rate, K rate, xBA and hard-hit rate.
Both teams have a prime opportunity to score runs tonight.
Guardians vs. Brewers under 8.5 runs (-130): The final leg of Friday’s parlay includes fading offence in the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers game.
Both of these teams rank bottom three in runs allowed per game. But even more importantly, both starting pitchers thrive in their respective situations.
Let’s start with Cleveland starter Gavin Williams. The 25-year-old has a 2-4 record and 4.39 ERA but all of that changes when he starts on the road.
Williams is 2-0 away from home with a 0.84 ERA and a matching 0.84 WHIP. He’s only given up two runs across 21.1 IP with 18 Ks.
Opposite him is Aaron Civale, who’s not having a good year overall (3-8, 5.02 ERA), but pitches much better at home.
In 12 home starts, Civale boasts a 3.78 ERA. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in his own ballpark since June 7.
One moneyline favourite and the opposite sides of two totals make up Friday’s MLB parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres are MLB’s hottest team and I’m backing them to continue their momentum in Colorado. Elsewhere, I’m expecting offence in a Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals matchup and am fading runs in Milwaukee to close out today’s parlay.
The team hasn’t lost a series since the all-star break. I’m expecting that to stay true this weekend, starting with a win tonight.
Offence has come in abundance over the 22-game run as the Padres have averaged 6.1 runs per game. For context, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors with 5.3 runs per game over the entire season.
The Padres have a +65 run differential over those 22 games which is higher than all but eight teams have for the year overall.
That’s an encouraging group of stats to see heading into Coors Field for a series.
This exact pitching matchup took place on August 4 when San Diego walked away with a 10-2 win.
The offence hit two homers off Cal Quantrill. That resulted in just 4.1 innings worth of action for the Rockies starter.
Other parlay picks
Dodgers vs. Cardinals over 8.5 runs (-159): The Cardinals are rolling with Miles Mikolas, who’s been inconsistent all season. He carries an 8-9 record along with a 5.31 ERA into tonight’s contest.
Here are some of the Dodgers’ career numbers against the righty:
Freddie Freeman: 8-17 (.471), three home runs
Shohei Ohtani: 4-5 (.800), 1 double
Mookie Betts: 3-7 (.429), 1 home run
If these three are up to standard tonight, runs are surely to follow.
On the other side, the Dodgers are expecting to start rookie Justin Wrobleski.
The 24-year-old has been decent through four starts this season with an ERA of 4.05 but advanced metrics show he’s been the beneficiary of some good luck.
According to Baseball Savant, Wrobleski has an xERA of 5.08 and currently sits in the bottom 50 percentile for a majority of the site’s advanced stats including whiff rate, K rate, xBA and hard-hit rate.
Both teams have a prime opportunity to score runs tonight.
Both of these teams rank bottom three in runs allowed per game. But even more importantly, both starting pitchers thrive in their respective situations.
Let’s start with Cleveland starter Gavin Williams. The 25-year-old has a 2-4 record and 4.39 ERA but all of that changes when he starts on the road.
Williams is 2-0 away from home with a 0.84 ERA and a matching 0.84 WHIP. He’s only given up two runs across 21.1 IP with 18 Ks.
Opposite him is Aaron Civale, who’s not having a good year overall (3-8, 5.02 ERA), but pitches much better at home.
In 12 home starts, Civale boasts a 3.78 ERA. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in his own ballpark since June 7.
The Toronto Blue Jays kick off a weekend series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Cubs and it’s safe to say he’s having a disappointing season. For that reason, I’m backing two of Toronto’s sluggers in my prop picks for the game. Also, expect Yariel Rodriguez to top his strikeout total in Chicago.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on August 16.
Best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (-154)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a monumental run at the plate.
Since the all-star break, the Blue Jays slugger is slashing .457/.523/.957 with a 1.480 OPS. In that 25-game span, Vladdy hit 11 homers and scored 25 runs.
Today, Toronto’s offence sees a struggling Hendricks. In 16 starts, the righty has a 3-10 record with a 6.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’s allowed five or more earned runs in half of those outings.
Those stats give insight as to why this run prop carries some juice but with how hot Vladdy is right now, it’s worth the squeeze.
Additionally, Hendricks throws a fastball 48% of the time with an average velocity of 87.8 miles per hour. That sits in the bottom one percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Guerrero has been tattooing fastballs all season. He hits .329 against the pitch with a low 17.1% whiff rate.
The hope is for Toronto’s lineup to drive him in once he presumably gets on base but the first baseman can also cash this ticket with his 26th homer of the season.
Key stat: Guerrero has scored a run in each of his last three games.
Quick picks
Horwitz over 0.5 runs (-118): Spencer Horwitz usually hits clean-up for the Jays but I believe there’s value in taking him to score a run this afternoon.
The bottom of Toronto’s batting order has been hot and it shows in Horwitz’s recent statlines. He’s scored five runs in the last four games.
One man who’s responsible for driving in a couple of those runs is Will Wagner. The Jays’ deadline acquisition has made his mark early. He has five hits in eight at-bats, resulting in three RBI across his first two games.
Another hot hitter is Ernie Clement. He had four hits in the L.A. Angels series, including a triple and home run in the final game on Thursday.
If Horwitz can get on base, there should be ample opportunity to drive him in against Hendricks.
The Toronto Blue Jays kick off a weekend series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Cubs and it’s safe to say he’s having a disappointing season. For that reason, I’m backing two of Toronto’s sluggers in my prop picks for the game. Also, expect Yariel Rodriguez to top his strikeout total in Chicago.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on August 16.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a monumental run at the plate.
Since the all-star break, the Blue Jays slugger is slashing .457/.523/.957 with a 1.480 OPS. In that 25-game span, Vladdy hit 11 homers and scored 25 runs.
Today, Toronto’s offence sees a struggling Hendricks. In 16 starts, the righty has a 3-10 record with a 6.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’s allowed five or more earned runs in half of those outings.
Those stats give insight as to why this run prop carries some juice but with how hot Vladdy is right now, it’s worth the squeeze.
Additionally, Hendricks throws a fastball 48% of the time with an average velocity of 87.8 miles per hour. That sits in the bottom one percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Guerrero has been tattooing fastballs all season. He hits .329 against the pitch with a low 17.1% whiff rate.
The hope is for Toronto’s lineup to drive him in once he presumably gets on base but the first baseman can also cash this ticket with his 26th homer of the season.
Key stat: Guerrero has scored a run in each of his last three games.
Quick picks
Horwitz over 0.5 runs (-105): Spencer Horwitz usually hits clean-up for the Jays but I believe there’s value in taking him to score a run this afternoon.
The bottom of Toronto’s batting order has been hot and it shows in Horwitz’s recent statlines. He’s scored five runs in the last four games.
One man who’s responsible for driving in a couple of those runs is Will Wagner. The Jays’ deadline acquisition has made his mark early. He has five hits in eight at-bats, resulting in three RBI across his first two games.
Another hot hitter is Ernie Clement. He had four hits in the L.A. Angels series, including a triple and home run in the final game on Thursday.
If Horwitz can get on base, there should be ample opportunity to drive him in against Hendricks.
Rodriguez over 4.5 strikeouts (-118): Rodriguez has topped this total in five of his last seven starts.
The two games he went under this line came against the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, two of MLB’s best offences.
Chicago’s offence isn’t terrible but it isn’t up to that standard. The Cubs strike out at the 13th-highest rate per game (8.62) in the majors.
Up until the start of July, Rodriguez hadn’t pitched more than four innings in an outing. Since then, he’s gone past that mark in six of seven starts.
It makes sense then why the righty’s strikeouts have increased over his last handful of outings. If he can get deep into today’s game, the Ks should be there.
