One moneyline favourite and the opposite sides of two totals make up Friday’s MLB parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The San Diego Padres are MLB’s hottest team and I’m backing them to continue their momentum in Colorado. Elsewhere, I’m expecting offence in a Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals matchup and am fading runs in Milwaukee to close out today’s parlay.
Check out the best MLB parlay picks for Friday, August 16.
MLB parlay picks
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Parlay: Padres ML + Dodgers/Cardinals over 8.5 runs + Guardians/Brewers under 8.5 runs (+353)
Padres moneyline (-180): San Diego is a mindblowing 19-3 in its last 22 games and is making a push for the NL West title.
The team hasn’t lost a series since the all-star break. I’m expecting that to stay true this weekend, starting with a win tonight.
Offence has come in abundance over the 22-game run as the Padres have averaged 6.1 runs per game. For context, the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the majors with 5.3 runs per game over the entire season.
The Padres have a +65 run differential over those 22 games which is higher than all but eight teams have for the year overall.
That’s an encouraging group of stats to see heading into Coors Field for a series.
This exact pitching matchup took place on August 4 when San Diego walked away with a 10-2 win.
The offence hit two homers off Cal Quantrill. That resulted in just 4.1 innings worth of action for the Rockies starter.
Other parlay picks
Dodgers vs. Cardinals over 8.5 runs (-159): The Cardinals are rolling with Miles Mikolas, who’s been inconsistent all season. He carries an 8-9 record along with a 5.31 ERA into tonight’s contest.
Here are some of the Dodgers’ career numbers against the righty:
- Freddie Freeman: 8-17 (.471), three home runs
- Shohei Ohtani: 4-5 (.800), 1 double
- Mookie Betts: 3-7 (.429), 1 home run
If these three are up to standard tonight, runs are surely to follow.
On the other side, the Dodgers are expecting to start rookie Justin Wrobleski.
The 24-year-old has been decent through four starts this season with an ERA of 4.05 but advanced metrics show he’s been the beneficiary of some good luck.
According to Baseball Savant, Wrobleski has an xERA of 5.08 and currently sits in the bottom 50 percentile for a majority of the site’s advanced stats including whiff rate, K rate, xBA and hard-hit rate.
Both teams have a prime opportunity to score runs tonight.
Guardians vs. Brewers under 8.5 runs (-130): The final leg of Friday’s parlay includes fading offence in the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers game.
Both of these teams rank bottom three in runs allowed per game. But even more importantly, both starting pitchers thrive in their respective situations.
Let’s start with Cleveland starter Gavin Williams. The 25-year-old has a 2-4 record and 4.39 ERA but all of that changes when he starts on the road.
Williams is 2-0 away from home with a 0.84 ERA and a matching 0.84 WHIP. He’s only given up two runs across 21.1 IP with 18 Ks.
Opposite him is Aaron Civale, who’s not having a good year overall (3-8, 5.02 ERA), but pitches much better at home.
In 12 home starts, Civale boasts a 3.78 ERA. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in his own ballpark since June 7.
Picks made at 11:23 a.m. on 08/16/24.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.