Two sluggers and an all-star pitcher are the target of Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: My best bet involves Yordan Alvarez doing damage in an intriguing matchup tonight. Elsewhere, I have eyes on a Dylan Cease strikeouts prop while also taking Jose Ramirez to score a run at plus money.
Find out why in the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 17.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (-134)
This is a matchup I see Alvarez exploiting.
The slugger is 6-for-17 (.353) in his career against Chicago White Sox’ starter Chris Flexen. Three of those hits were home runs.
Post all-star break, Alvarez is hitting .333 and 14 of his 30 hits have gone for extra bases. He’s been hitting the cover off the ball lately.
The Houston Astros’ designated hitter had three hits off Flexen in their last meeting (June 20), totalling six bases that day.
Alvarez typically takes advantage of this matchup and I’m expecting much of the same tonight.
Key stat: In his past 12 games, Alvarez has cleared this line in eight times.
Quick picks
Cease over 7.5 strikeouts (-122): Cease has been historically dominant against the Rockies’ offence.
The Padres’ ace has held Colorado’s lineup to a .217 average (13-for-60) in his career. That includes 21 Ks and just four walks.
It’s not too surprising considering the Rockies strike out 9.8 times per game (second-most in MLB).
Cease is also having the second-best season of his career, posting a 3.41 ERA and a career-best 4.0 K/BB ratio.
His 11.4 K/9 ranks fourth in the majors and Colorado is a swing-happy team. I like the value here on the hard-throwing righty to record eight-plus strikeouts.
Ramirez over 0.5 runs (+125): Cleveland’s third baseman has been on a tear since the MLB All-Star Game.
He’s batting .317 with a 1.025 OPS in 27 games since the break. That includes hitting nine homers and scoring 22 runs.
Ramirez has struck out just 12 times in the past month and is getting on base at a high clip (.372 OBP) over that time.
The result is that the switch-hitting slugger is finding himself in scoring position … a lot.
Over the last five games alone, Ramirez has crossed home plate seven times. He’s 1-for-2 lifetime against Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Freddy Peralta with a walk. It’s a limited sample size but it’s nice to see heading into a meeting with the struggling righty.
Peralta has given up 13 earned runs over his last four starts including seven homers.
Picks made at 11:27 a.m. ET on 08/17/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.