Contributing Writer

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 17: Expect Bobby Witt Jr. to score, Jose Ramirez to slug

Two all-star hitters make up today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Bobby Witt Jr. is having an incredible season and I’m jumping on one of his prop markets tonight. I’m also backing Jose Ramirez in a prime matchup.

Check out these MLB prop bets for Sept. 17.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Witt over 0.5 runs (-136)

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There isn’t a better player than Witt to back in this market. He leads the majors in runs (122), batting average (.332) and hits (200).

The Royals shortstop has a prime matchup to have another successful outing tonight and that’s why I’m cool with playing the juice.

Casey Mize is having a rough season for the Detroit Tigers, posting a 2-6 record with a 4.47 ERA.

In his last meeting with the Royals, Mize was chased from the game after giving up six runs in less than two innings. Witt scored three runs in the contest.

According to Baseball Savant, Mize’s .289 xBA ranks in the fourth percentile, so there should be ample opportunity for MLB’s hits leader to get on base and score.

Key stat: Witt has scored a run in both of Mize’s starts against the Royals this season.

Quick picks

Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+112): My thought process here is pretty easy to lay out. I’m backing a hot hitter against a shaky pitcher.

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Ramirez has gone over 1.5 bases in back-to-back outings and has at least one hit in each of his last seven games.

Zebby Matthews had a decent start to his MLB career, giving up two or fewer runs in his first three starts (15.0 innings pitched). But things have since gone downhill.

Over his last three starts, he’s pitched 10.1 innings and allowed 15 runs on 24 hits. I like the prospect of Ramirez doing damage tonight at this price.

Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 09/17/2024.

Patriots vs. Jets Week 3 best bets and odds: Bet on points and Hunter Henry have a big game on TNF

The third Thursday of the NFL season features an AFC East showdown.

The pregame narrative: The New England Patriots face the New York Jets to kick off Week 3 and I’m expecting them to clear a modest point total. Additionally, I’m backing Hunter Henry to build on last week’s stellar performance.

Check out my Patriots vs. Jets best bets for the Week 3 matchup on Sept. 19.

Patriots vs. Jets best bets

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Best Bet: Over 37.5 points (-110)

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Despite all the defensive talent in this matchup, I think this point total is too low.

Aaron Rodgers is back for the Jets while the Patriots turn to Jacoby Brissett for the time being. With two savvy vets under centre, the results on third down have been impressive.

New York has the third-best efficiency on third down (50.0%) behind Rodgers. Even though the Jets have struggled to move the ball (274.0 total yards per game, 29th in the NFL), they’ve still scored 21.5 points per game, which is in the top half of the league.

The Patriots rank 14th at converting third downs (38.7%) and scored 18.0 points per game through two weeks (20th in the NFL). Not the best, but certainly not the worst.

If we look at the defensive side, New England allows a 42.3% conversion rate on third down and New York is even worse, giving up a 44.0% conversion rate. That places both teams in the bottom third of the NFL.

A 37.5-point total is one you see given to terrible offensive teams, but I have faith that both sides can contribute enough to hit the over.

Key stat: The Jets allow the eighth-most yards (366.5) and points (24.5) per game.

Quick Pick

Henry over 31.5 receiving yards (-114): Henry may have solidified himself as the No. 1 option in New England last week.

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The tight end caught eight of 12 targets for 109 yards. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in both games and has a team-high 15 targets so far.

Henry won’t have to deal with Sauce Gardner lining up on the inside, which should give him chances to get open as Brissett’s safety net.

This low total doesn’t require anywhere close to the production Henry had last week. And with how important the tight end is to New England’s offence, I want to take advantage before the inflation eventually hits.

Picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 09/17/2024.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 16: Bet on Skenes and Imanaga to deal on Monday

Two pitchers and one hitter make up today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: It’s officially Paul Skenes bump day and I have a pick on one of his pitching props. Elsewhere I’m backing the over on Shota Imanaga’s strikeout total and am predicting Ketel Marte will score a run in a prime matchup.

Check out these MLB prop bets for Sept. 16.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts (-120)

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Skenes has been one of the best pitchers in the majors this season.

The rookie is boasting a ridiculous 2.10 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 120 innings pitched this season. That includes a 12.0 K/9.

He’s pitched twice against St. Louis this season, throwing a total of 14.2 innings and giving up two runs. He worked at least six innings in both starts giving me confidence he can work late into the game tonight.

If that’s the case, Skenes should have no problem tallying up the Ks. Against this current Cardinals lineup, the 2023 No. 1 pick has a 30.2% K rate.

Key stat: Skenes finished with eight strikeouts in each of his starts against St. Louis this season.

Quick picks

Imanaga over 6.5 strikeouts (-113): Another pitcher I don’t mind backing at a lofty total is Chicago Cubs’ ace Imanaga.

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He’s finished two of his last three starts with seven-plus Ks. Imanaga boasts a very respectable 8.93 K/9 stat and has a prime matchup to be successful.

Oakland strikes out the fourth most in the majors (9.26/game) which includes a 26.5% K rate against left-handed pitching.

Imanaga has pitched six or more innings in four straight starts, giving me confidence that he will get deep into tonight’s game providing more opportunity to record strikeouts.

Marte over 0.5 runs (-127): To close out the picks, I want to grab a Marte prop at Coors Field.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks lead MLB in runs scored (5.5/game) and Colorado provides the most hitter-friendly ballpark.

Marte also hits leadoff for Arizona, amplifying his opportunities to score.

Antonio Senzatela makes his first start of the season for the Rockies. His stats even when healthy are concerning. In his last full season, Senzatela had a 5.07 ERA.

Marte is 11-for-31 (.355) off of Colorado’s starter while Christian Walker — who hits behind Marte — is 14-of-27 in his career vs. Senzatela (.519).

The D-backs’ lineup overall is hitting .318 off of the righty so if Marte gets on base, I’m expecting his teammates to drive him home.

Picks made at 11:35 a.m. ET on 09/16/2024.

Dodgers vs. Braves prop picks Sept. 16: Back Ohtani and Yamamoto to be productive

A pair of Los Angeles Dodgers headline my prop picks for tonight’s meeting with the Atlanta Braves.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani is well on his way to winning the NL MVP and I’m backing him to do damage against the Braves. I’m also betting on Yoshinobu Yamamoto to have a productive start and go over his strikeout total.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Braves prop picks for Sept. 16.

Dodgers vs. Braves prop picks

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Best Bet: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (+112)

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A plus-money Ohtani prop? Don’t mind if I do.

The Dodgers’ slugger has recorded multiple bases in seven of his last 12 games and has an intriguing history with Braves’ starter Max Fried.

Although Ohtani’s batting average is worse against left-handed pitching (.271) than right-handed pitching (.301), he was successful in his one career meeting with Fried earlier this season, going 3-for-3 with a homerun.

I have to believe this prop pick is at an underdog price because of the lefty vs. lefty matchup, but that small sample size indicates Ohtani has no problem teeing off Fried.

That’s actually a weird trend for the Braves starter. Even though he’s a lefty, he allows a .331 batting average and .870 OPS to batters hitting from the same side.

Key stat: Ohtani leads the NL with a .987 OPS.

Quick picks

Yamamoto over 5.5 strikeouts (+138): The Japanese pitcher may be on a pitch count but I still think he can rack up strikeouts.

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In his first game back from injury, Yamamoto threw just 59 pitches over four innings of work but that was still enough time to record eight Ks.

That was against the Chicago Cubs who whiff less per game (8.52) than the Braves (9.05).

With his first start going well, I expect L.A.’s starter to keep improving game to game. And I have confidence he can top this modest total against Atlanta tonight.

According to Baseball Savant, Yamamoto is in the 89th percentile for K rate (29.1%).

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET 09/16/2024.

Falcons vs. Eagles Week 2 best bets: Fade offence and back Atlanta to cover on Monday Night Football

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons in the second edition of Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Philly looks to keep momentum rolling into Week 2 but I’m expecting more of a defensive battle. With the knowledge of the Eagles’ struggles to finish last season, I’m also backing the Falcons to cover the spread.

Check out my Falcons vs. Eagles best bets for Sept. 16.

Falcons vs. Eagles best bets

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Best Bet: Under 47 points (-110)

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Philadelphia put on a good showing in Week 1, scoring 34 points against the Green Bay Packers in a game that finished with 63 total points.

That was an international game in Brazil so it does come with a grain of salt, however.

Unders went 10-7-0 for Atlanta last season and its Week 1 game went well under the given total, ending with 28 points.

The Falcons’ defence allowed 18 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers but all of them came off of field goals — and if there’s any concern it’s the rushing defence.

The unit allowed 133 rushing yards but that was on 41 attempts which still equals out to a respectable 3.24 yards per carry.

Additionally, the offence scored 10 points, leaving me concerned with the early chemistry which should work itself out eventually.

But even an early stand from both defences should be enough to keep the game total under this rather lofty total.

Key stat: Atlanta allowed the 10th fewest yards per game last season despite ranking 23rd in time of possession.

Quick pick

Falcons +6.5 (-118): If anything scares me about the first bet, it’s the potential for the Falcons’ offence to put up numbers.

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Call me crazy but I think Atlanta’s defence is much better than Philidelphia’s. Last season, the Eagles gave up the third most passing yards per game (255.7).

Kirk Cousins didn’t look good in Week 1 but the Falcons’ quarterback has surpassed 4,000 passing yards in eight of his last nine healthy seasons. He was on pace last year with 2,331 in eight weeks before getting injured.

For Atlanta, his offensive weapons consist of Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Three of the top touted young playmakers in the league.

I ultimately expect this game to be a bit of a snoozefest but if Cousins finds some chemistry at any point, he could do damage against the Eagles’ defence.

Philadelphia did lose five of its last six games of the 2023-2024 regular season before losing in the wild-card round to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so I have to factor that in as well.

Picks made at 2:08 p.m. ET 09/14/2024

Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks Sept. 14: Back Gilbert, Scherzer and fade Semien

The Texas Rangers play the Seattle Mariners in the second game of their series.

The pregame narrative: Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Rangers as the Mariners counter with Logan Gilbert. I’m taking the over on a prop for each starter while fading one of Texas’ star hitters.

Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 14.

Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks

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Best Bet: Gilbert over 18.5 outs (-110)

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The Mariners’ starter has been reliable this season and ups his play when going against the Rangers.

Gilbert’s cleared this line in both starts against Texas this season, throwing a total of 14.2 innings without giving up a single run.

He accumulated 15 strikeouts and simply dominates this Rangers offence. In 172 plate appearances, the current lineup has 29 hits (.169 batting average) with 42 Ks.

With that kind of sample size, I would feel like a fool not to try and take advantage in the prop markets.

Key stat: Gilbert has cashed this bet in six of his last seven starts.

Quick picks

Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts (-138): Scherzer is still battling a nagging shoulder injury but that hasn’t stopped him from tallying up the strikeouts.

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He’s recorded five or more Ks in four of his last five starts despite only pitching more than four innings twice.

That demonstrates his ability to fan batters even if he isn’t working late into ballgames.

Baseball Savant displays his chase rate at 36.3% which would rank in the 99th percentile if he threw enough innings to qualify.

Additionally, Seattle strikes out the most per game in the majors (10.14).

Semien under 0.5 hits (+148): Going back to Gilbert’s success, Marcus Semien has been one of the biggest contributors.

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in 29 career meetings, Semien has just two hits (.069 BA) and has struck out six times.

The second baseman is hot right now, recording hits in seven of his last nine starts but that just gives us a better number to play.

I can’t ignore the disastrous history against Gilbert so I’m willing to take a shot here at some nice odds.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET 09/14/2024.

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Sept. 14 MLB odds, schedule and matchups: Chris Sale makes start against the Dodgers

Saturday brings with it a loaded MLB slate to dive into.

The latest: The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers send two top-tier pitchers to the mound in an exciting evening game. Following that is Max Scherzer and the Texas Rangers vs. Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners to close out a great day of baseball.

Check out the latest MLB odds for Saturday, Sept. 14.

MLB odds: Sept. 14

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

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Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers

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Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago White Sox

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves

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Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants

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Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels

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Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners

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Betting insights

Michael Wacha (3.34 ERA) is the definition of consistency. The Royals’ starter has given up two or fewer runs in 15 of his last 18 starts and is 4-1 since the beginning of August. Kansas City plays Pittsburgh this afternoon.

How good is Sale? The NL Cy Young favourite is 16-3 with a 2.38 ERA this season. He finds himself in a blockbuster matchup against Jack Flaherty (2.86) and the Dodgers tonight.

In the final game of the day, Scherzer (3.89 ERA) and Gilbert (3.15 ERA) take the mound as the Rangers visit the Mariners. The lowest total of the day (6.5) indicates this should be a pitcher’s duel and I don’t think anyone would be surprised.

EPL Matchday 4 picks and predictions: Back Chelsea and Newcastle United to win

I’m backing two away sides in my EPL Matchday 4 picks.

The pregame narrative: Chelsea has been inconsistent this season but has a good chance to get a win over AFC Bournemouth on the road. On Sunday, expect Newcastle United to get the victory over Wolverhampton.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 4 picks.

EPL Matchday 4 picks

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Best Bet: Chelsea to win (+100)

Getting Chelsea at plus-money to win against Bournemouth is too good to pass up.

Even though the Blues are a pedestrian 1-1-1 to start the season, the loss comes against Manchester City who is cruising at 3-0-0.

Bournemouth is nowhere near the level of City with just one win. It came in a game against Everton where the side was down 0-2 as late as the 80th minute. The Cherries ended up pulling out the 3-2 victory but I don’t expect a stronger side to have such a monumental collapse.

Chelsea won its only other away fixture, 6-2, in a dominant showing over Wolverhampton.

Now, I don’t believe the Blues will win the Premier League or anything, but this feels like a strong get-right spot for Chelsea who can jump Bournemouth in the standings with a win.

Despite their record, the London club is top-five in shots on target per game (6.0), goals per game (2.3) and completed passes per game (464.7).

Key stat: Chelsea has won three of the past four matches against Bournemouth.

Quick pick

Newcastle United to win (+115): As eluded to earlier, the Wolves’ 6-2 loss over Chelsea is just a chapter in their poor season.

The side has yet to win a match and has a goal differential of -6 through three games. The squad finished 14th in the EPL last season and this season hasn’t started any better.

Newcastle, on the other hand, is a team on the rise in the Premiership. They finished seventh last year and have a 2-1-0 record to start this campaign.

In its final meeting of the 2023-2024 campaign, Newcastle walked away with a 3-0 win. The defence held Wolverhampton’s attack to a measly four shots.

The Wolves have been outshot and trailed on possession in all three games so far whereas Newcastle is coming off a win over Tottenham.

I’m riding with the momentum and taking the Magpies to come away from this match with three points.

Picks made at 10:28 a.m. on 09/12/24.

UFC 306 picks and predictions: Bet on “Suga” Sean O’Malley to defend bantamweight title

This weekend’s UFC 306 card will be held at the Sphere in Las Vegas.

The pregame narrative: Sean O’Malley headlines the event with a title defence over Merab Dvalishvili and I’m backing the champ to retain. Earlier on the card, I’m picking Manuel Torres to win his bout against Ignacio Bahamondes.

Check out my UFC 306 picks for September 14.

UFC 306 picks overview

UFC 306 picks	Odds
O”Malley to win	-138
Torres to win	-130

Picks made at 11:07 a.m. ET on 09/12/24.

Go to full UFC betting markets.

UFC 306 picks

Best Bet: O’Malley to win (-132)

O’Malley has the fighting style to keep Dvalishvili at range and I predict that will lead to a second title defence for the bantamweight champ.

After all, O’Malley is one of the top strikers in the UFC. He uses his elite footwork to snipe opponents on the feet. He lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute at a 61% clip.

In contrast, he defends 62% of incoming sig. strikes and absorbs a much lower 3.52 per minute. That shows his incredible ability to avoid being hit while inflicting damage on his opponent.

Fans saw that when O’Malley originally won the belt at UFC 292 against Aljamain Sterling with a counter right that floored the former title holder in the early part of round two.

Dvalishvili fights a lot like Sterling, using his fantastic pace and wrestling to stifle opponents. Sterling was unable to get O’Malley to the mat in their fight and that worries me for Dvalishvili’s chances.

He lands 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes but only succeeds at a 36% clip, per UFC Stats. A lot of his recent success has come against other grapplers like Henry Cejudo.

I don’t see the challenger having the same success pressuring O’Malley. Dvalishvili gives up height, and reach and is much slower than his counterpart. All these variables have me jumping on the side of the striker.

Key Stat: O’Malley is undefeated in his last seven fights.

Other picks

Torres to win (-124): This UFC card will be flooded with Mexican fighters and Torres is one to keep an eye on.

The 29-year-old is entering his athletic prime and has the recent results of a true contender.

Torres has won six fights in a row in the first round and is a dynamic martial artist, winning three by knockout and three by submission.

He hasn’t been fighting bad opponents either. He has first-round finishes in the UFC over Chris Duncan (11-1), Nikolas Motta (13-4) and Frank Camacho (22-9).

His opponent on Saturday, Bahamondes, is 4-2 in the UFC but his wins are much less impressive. When he was matched up against a veteran like L’udovit Klein two fights ago, he lost by decision and looked outmatched skill-wise.

Both these fighters are considered prospects but I think Torres is the better, more dangerous fighter and I’m taking him to win.

EPL Matchday 4 picks and predictions: Back Chelsea and Newcastle United to win

I’m backing two away sides in my EPL Matchday 4 picks.

The pregame narrative: Chelsea has been inconsistent this season but has a good chance to get a win over AFC Bournemouth on the road. On Sunday, expect Newcastle United to get the victory over Wolverhampton.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 4 picks.

EPL Matchday 4 picks

Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Best Bet: Chelsea to win (+100)

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Getting Chelsea at plus-money to win against Bournemouth is too good to pass up.

Even though the Blues are a pedestrian 1-1-1 to start the season, the loss comes against Manchester City who is cruising at 3-0-0.

Bournemouth is nowhere near the level of City with just one win. It came in a game against Everton where the side was down 0-2 as late as the 80th minute. The Cherries ended up pulling out the 3-2 victory but I don’t expect a stronger side to have such a monumental collapse.

Chelsea won its only other away fixture, 6-2, in a dominant showing over Wolverhampton.

Now, I don’t believe the Blues will win the Premier League or anything, but this feels like a strong get-right spot for Chelsea who can jump Bournemouth in the standings with a win.

Despite their record, the London club is top-five in shots on target per game (6.0), goals per game (2.3) and completed passes per game (464.7).

Key stat: Chelsea has won three of the past four matches against Bournemouth.

Quick pick

Newcastle United to win (+112): As eluded to earlier, the Wolves’ 6-2 loss over Chelsea is just a chapter in their poor season.

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The side has yet to win a match and has a goal differential of -6 through three games. The squad finished 14th in the EPL last season and this season hasn’t started any better.

Newcastle, on the other hand, is a team on the rise in the Premiership. They finished seventh last year and have a 2-1-0 record to start this campaign.

In its final meeting of the 2023-2024 campaign, Newcastle walked away with a 3-0 win. The defence held Wolverhampton’s attack to a measly four shots.

The Wolves have been outshot and trailed on possession in all three games so far whereas Newcastle is coming off a win over Tottenham.

I’m riding with the momentum and taking the Magpies to come away from this match with three points.

Picks made at 10:28 a.m. on 09/12/24.