The third Thursday of the NFL season features an AFC East showdown.
The pregame narrative: The New England Patriots face the New York Jets to kick off Week 3 and I’m expecting them to clear a modest point total. Additionally, I’m backing Hunter Henry to build on last week’s stellar performance.
Check out my Patriots vs. Jets best bets for the Week 3 matchup on Sept. 19.
Patriots vs. Jets best bets
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Best Bet: Over 37.5 points (-110)
Despite all the defensive talent in this matchup, I think this point total is too low.
Aaron Rodgers is back for the Jets while the Patriots turn to Jacoby Brissett for the time being. With two savvy vets under centre, the results on third down have been impressive.
New York has the third-best efficiency on third down (50.0%) behind Rodgers. Even though the Jets have struggled to move the ball (274.0 total yards per game, 29th in the NFL), they’ve still scored 21.5 points per game, which is in the top half of the league.
The Patriots rank 14th at converting third downs (38.7%) and scored 18.0 points per game through two weeks (20th in the NFL). Not the best, but certainly not the worst.
If we look at the defensive side, New England allows a 42.3% conversion rate on third down and New York is even worse, giving up a 44.0% conversion rate. That places both teams in the bottom third of the NFL.
A 37.5-point total is one you see given to terrible offensive teams, but I have faith that both sides can contribute enough to hit the over.
Key stat: The Jets allow the eighth-most yards (366.5) and points (24.5) per game.
Quick Pick
Henry over 31.5 receiving yards (-114): Henry may have solidified himself as the No. 1 option in New England last week.
The tight end caught eight of 12 targets for 109 yards. He’s played over 80% of the snaps in both games and has a team-high 15 targets so far.
Henry won’t have to deal with Sauce Gardner lining up on the inside, which should give him chances to get open as Brissett’s safety net.
This low total doesn’t require anywhere close to the production Henry had last week. And with how important the tight end is to New England’s offence, I want to take advantage before the inflation eventually hits.
Picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 09/17/2024.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.