Contributing Writer

UFC 306 picks and predictions: Bet on “Suga” Sean O’Malley to defend bantamweight title

This weekend’s UFC 306 card will be held at the Sphere in Las Vegas.

The pregame narrative: Sean O’Malley headlines the event with a title defence over Merab Dvalishvili and I’m backing the champ to retain. Earlier on the card, I’m picking Manuel Torres to win his bout against Ignacio Bahamondes.

Check out my UFC 306 picks for September 14.

UFC 306 picks overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

UFC 306 picks	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
O”Malley to win	-132	Add to betslip
Torres to win	-124	Add to betslip

UFC picks made at 9:07 a.m. ET on 09/12/24.

Go to full UFC betting markets.

UFC 306 picks

Best Bet: O’Malley to win (-132)

O’Malley has the fighting style to keep Dvalishvili at range and I predict that will lead to a second title defence for the bantamweight champ.

After all, O’Malley is one of the top strikers in the UFC. He uses his elite footwork to snipe opponents on the feet. He lands 7.63 significant strikes per minute at a 61% clip.

In contrast, he defends 62% of incoming sig. strikes and absorbs a much lower 3.52 per minute. That shows his incredible ability to avoid being hit while inflicting damage on his opponent.

Fans saw that when O’Malley originally won the belt at UFC 292 against Aljamain Sterling with a counter right that floored the former title holder in the early part of round two.

Dvalishvili fights a lot like Sterling, using his fantastic pace and wrestling to stifle opponents. Sterling was unable to get O’Malley to the mat in their fight and that worries me for Dvalishvili’s chances.

He lands 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes but only succeeds at a 36% clip, per UFC Stats. A lot of his recent success has come against other grapplers like Henry Cejudo.

I don’t see the challenger having the same success pressuring O’Malley. Dvalishvili gives up height, and reach and is much slower than his counterpart. All these variables have me jumping on the side of the striker.

Key Stat: O’Malley is undefeated in his last seven fights.

Other picks

Torres to win (-124): This UFC card will be flooded with Mexican fighters and Torres is one to keep an eye on.

The 29-year-old is entering his athletic prime and has the recent results of a true contender.

Torres has won six fights in a row in the first round and is a dynamic martial artist, winning three by knockout and three by submission.

He hasn’t been fighting bad opponents either. He has first-round finishes in the UFC over Chris Duncan (11-1), Nikolas Motta (13-4) and Frank Camacho (22-9).

His opponent on Saturday, Bahamondes, is 4-2 in the UFC but his wins are much less impressive. When he was matched up against a veteran like L’udovit Klein two fights ago, he lost by decision and looked outmatched skill-wise.

Both these fighters are considered prospects but I think Torres is the better, more dangerous fighter and I’m taking him to win.

CFL Week 15 picks and predictions: Bet on points in BC Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts game

The CFL season is starting to reach its final stages as Week 15 begins Friday.

The pregame narrative: The Toronto Argonauts and BC Lions’ returning quarterbacks have seemingly adjusted and I’m taking the over when the two teams meet out west. Elsewhere, I’m taking the Calgary Stampeders to keep it close at home against the Montreal Alouettes.

Check out the best CFL Week 15 picks below.

CFL Week 15 picks

Full CFL Week 15 betting markets

Best Bet: Argonauts/Lions over 52.5 points (-110)

Both Nathan Rourke and Chad Kelly have jumped right into the fire midseason and neither quarterback is afraid to sling it.

Kelly threw 56 pass attempts last week against the Ottawa Redblacks, resulting in 36 completions, 463 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions.

Two of those picks were returned for scores. We’ll take points however we can get them on Friday and a risky passing approach from the Argos QB is a good way to increase the pace of play, leading to points.

Rourke, to much of the same extent, has also played loosely on offence. In his last two starts, he’s thrown for 629 yards, four TDs and four INTs.

The air raid attack and lack of running approach from both sides have led to some high-scoring contests lately.

Key stat: BC had a total of 60 points scored in its game last week while Toronto had a total of 68.

Quick pick

Stampeders +6 (-118): I continue to fade the Alouettes as I believe their unbelievable start has begun to fade.

Despite being 10-2 on the season, Montreal has only covered this spread in two of its last seven games. Both those wins came against the 3-9 Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

The Alouettes are also coming off a Week 14 loss over the Lions, 37-23.

In an earlier meeting with Calgary, Als receiver Tyson Philpot had 12 receptions for 134 yards in a 30-26 Montreal win. Philpot has been out since early August and won’t be playing this weekend.

The Stamps’ defence picked off Cody Fajardo twice and should have an easier time limiting the points this weekend with Fajordo’s elite receiver out.

That game was also in Montreal whereas this game will be in Calgary, giving the Stampeders home-field advantage.

Picks made at 2:14 p.m. ET on 09/11/24.

CFL Week 15 picks and predictions: Bet on points in BC Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts game

The CFL season is starting to reach its final stages as Week 15 begins Friday.

The pregame narrative: The Toronto Argonauts and BC Lions’ returning quarterbacks have seemingly adjusted and I’m taking the over when the two teams meet out west. Elsewhere, I’m taking the Calgary Stampeders to keep it close at home against the Montreal Alouettes.

Check out the best CFL Week 15 picks below.

CFL Week 15 picks

Full CFL Week 15 betting markets

Best Bet: Argonauts/Lions over 52.5 points (-110)

Embed: #94273

Both Nathan Rourke and Chad Kelly have jumped right into the fire midseason and neither quarterback is afraid to sling it.

Kelly threw 56 pass attempts last week against the Ottawa Redblacks, resulting in 36 completions, 463 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions.

Two of those picks were returned for scores. We’ll take points however we can get them on Friday and a risky passing approach from the Argos QB is a good way to increase the pace of play, leading to points.

Rourke, to much of the same extent, has also played loosely on offence. In his last two starts, he’s thrown for 629 yards, four TDs and four INTs.

The air raid attack and lack of running approach from both sides have led to some high-scoring contests lately.

Key stat: BC had a total of 60 points scored in its game last week while Toronto had a total of 68.

Quick pick

Stampeders +6 (-110): I continue to fade the Alouettes as I believe their unbelievable start has begun to fade.

Embed: #94274

Despite being 10-2 on the season, Montreal has only covered this spread in two of its last seven games. Both those wins came against the 3-9 Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

The Alouettes are also coming off a Week 14 loss over the Lions, 37-23.

In an earlier meeting with Calgary, Als receiver Tyson Philpot had 12 receptions for 134 yards in a 30-26 Montreal win. Philpot has been out since early August and won’t be playing this weekend.

The Stamps’ defence picked off Cody Fajardo twice and should have an easier time limiting the points this weekend with Fajordo’s elite receiver out.

That game was also in Montreal whereas this game will be in Calgary, giving the Stampeders home-field advantage.

Picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 09/11/24.

Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks Sept. 11: Expect Ohtani and Happ to deliver on Wednesday

The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers conclude a three-game series on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers look to avoid a sweep and they’ll need their big bats to do so. I’m predicting Shohei Ohtani to do damage while also placing a wager on Ian Happ to score a run for the Cubs. Lastly, I’m fading Bobby Miller’s outs prop.

Check out my Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 11.

Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-109)

Embed: #94247

Ohtani hasn’t played up to his standard lately, hitting .250 with just three extra-base hits in nine games since the calendar flipped to September.

But I’m taking the value on his bases prop and am backing the slugger in what I perceive to be a plus matchup.

In an earlier meeting this season against Cubs starter Jordan Wicks, Ohtani went 2-for-3 and cleared this line before Chicago went to the bullpen.

Although it hasn’t been the best month for Ohtani, he has still recorded two-plus total bases in five of nine starts and three of his last five.

To add, over 50% of his hits have gone for extra bases this season (83 of 164).

Key stat: Ohtani leads the NL with a .985 OPS.

Quick picks

Happ over 0.5 runs (-113): The Cubs’ left fielder is another player I believe has a strong matchup today.

Embed: #94248

Bobby Miller has been pretty poor for L.A., recording a 7.79 ERA in 11 starts this season. In his one start against Chicago, he gave up five earned runs in 1.2 innings pitched.

Happ scored one of those runs and has scored 81 total runs hitting out of the leadoff spot for his team.

Hitting first in the lineup raises a player’s chances to score which is part of the reason I’m backing Happ against the Dodgers’ shaky starter.

Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger hit third and fourth for the Cubs and have combined for a total of seven hits and four RBI in the series.

The team as a whole has scored 16 runs so if Happ gets on base, I like his chances of scoring tonight.

Miller under 16.5 outs (-112): Not trying to pick on Miller too much, but this isn’t a line he’s cleared often.

Embed: #94249

In eight starts since coming off the injured list, the righty has cleared this line just twice and that was against the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays.

As previously mentioned, he also has a start against the Cubs that lasted less than two innings.

In a small sample size of eight plate appearances, Chicago’s offence has three hits and two walks off of Miller.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 09/11/2024.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

NFL Week 2 parlay picks: Take Pittsburgh to win as part of +455 ticket

Week 2’s NFL parlay consists of two moneyline picks and one play on a game total.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers picked up an underdog victory on the road in Week 1. I’m picking them to win this week, and this time as the favourite, against the Denver Broncos. I’m also backing the Washington Commanders to win and the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals to go over 49 total points.

Check out my Week 2 parlay picks for the start of the NFL season.

NFL Week 2 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 2 betting markets.

Parlay: Steelers moneyline + Commanders moneyline + Rams/Cardinals over 49 points (+455)

Steelers moneyline (-163): Pittsburgh went on the road and stifled the Atlanta Falcons’ new offence with Kirk Cousins.

I expect the Steelers’ defence to be one of the best in the league this season and the Broncos’ offence looked nothing to be concerned with.

In Week 1, the Broncos lost by six to the Seattle Seahawks. But if you watched that game, you would know that Denver never looked that good.

Four points were scored off of safeties in an unusual second quarter while rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s first career rushing touchdown came in garbage time. Nix threw two interceptions as well.

I do not like the rookie’s chances of success against the defence that held Cousins to 155 yards, one TD and two INTs last week.

On the Steelers’ side, Russell Wilson missed the first game with an injury but Justin Fields was a fine replacement. He didn’t turn the ball over and accumulated 213 total yards.

He didn’t find the endzone but he consistently got into field goal range and let Chris Boswell, T.J. Watt, and the defence to the rest.

Other parlay picks

Commanders moneyline (-125): Last week I picked the New York Giants in my spread picks as I apparently needed a reminder of how bad Daniel Jones is.

Baker Mayfield made light work of Washington’s defence last week, throwing four TD passes. But through 18 weeks with Tampa Bay, I think it’s time everyone starts putting respect on Mayfield’s name.

Jones, on the other hand, has thrown 27 TDs and 20 INTs since 2021 and hasn’t thrown more than 20 in a season since his rookie year.

His Giants put up six points against the Minnesota Vikings at home against their third-string QB so I’m not expecting any better on the road in Week 2.

Second-overall pick, Jayden Daniels, had a strong NFL debut, completing 17-of-24 passes for 184 yards and adding 88 more rushing yards. I already trust the first-year QB more than Jones.

Rams/Cardinals over 49 points (-110): I’m backing the talent at QB on both sides in my final leg.

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals went into Buffalo and scored 28 points last week but their defence gave up 36.

With Murray running the offence, I expect a lot of games to go over this season as I don’t trust the defence at all. Arizona allowed the second most points per game in the league last season (26.8).

Matthew Stafford threw 49 pass attempts in Week 1, equalling 317 yards. If he can replicate that production against the Cardinals, I predict it will lead to points.

NFL picks made at 10:06 a.m. on 09/11/24.

NFL Week 2 parlay picks: Take Pittsburgh to win as part of +468 ticket

Week 2’s NFL parlay consists of two moneyline picks and one play on a game total.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers picked up an underdog victory on the road in Week 1. I’m picking them to win this week, and this time as the favourite, against the Denver Broncos. I’m also backing the Washington Commanders to win and the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals to go over 49 total points.

Check out my Week 2 parlay picks for the start of the NFL season.

NFL Week 2 parlay picks

Go to full NFL Week 2 betting markets.

Parlay: Steelers moneyline + Commanders moneyline + Rams/Cardinals over 49 points (+468)

Steelers moneyline (-155): Pittsburgh went on the road and stifled the Atlanta Falcons’ new offence with Kirk Cousins.

Embed: #94219

I expect the Steelers’ defence to be one of the best in the league this season and the Broncos’ offence looked nothing to be concerned with.

In Week 1, the Broncos lost by six to the Seattle Seahawks. But if you watched that game, you would know that Denver never looked that good.

Four points were scored off of safeties in an unusual second quarter while rookie quarterback Bo Nix’s first career rushing touchdown came in garbage time. Nix threw two interceptions as well.

I do not like the rookie’s chances of success against the defence that held Cousins to 155 yards, one TD and two INTs last week.

On the Steelers’ side, Russell Wilson missed the first game with an injury but Justin Fields was a fine replacement. He didn’t turn the ball over and accumulated 213 total yards.

He didn’t find the endzone but he consistently got into field goal range and let Chris Boswell, T.J. Watt, and the defence to the rest.

Other parlay picks

Commanders moneyline (-122): Last week I picked the New York Giants in my spread picks as I apparently needed a reminder of how bad Daniel Jones is.

Embed: #94217

Baker Mayfield made light work of Washington’s defence last week, throwing four TD passes. But through 18 weeks with Tampa Bay, I think it’s time everyone starts putting respect on Mayfield’s name.

Jones, on the other hand, has thrown 27 TDs and 20 INTs since 2021 and hasn’t thrown more than 20 in a season since his rookie year.

His Giants put up six points against the Minnesota Vikings at home against their third-string QB so I’m not expecting any better on the road in Week 2.

Second-overall pick, Jayden Daniels, had a strong NFL debut, completing 17-of-24 passes for 184 yards and adding 88 more rushing yards. I already trust the first-year QB more than Jones.

Rams/Cardinals over 49 points (-113): I’m backing the talent at QB on both sides in my final leg.

Embed: #94218

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals went into Buffalo and scored 28 points last week but their defence gave up 36.

With Murray running the offence, I expect a lot of games to go over this season as I don’t trust the defence at all. Arizona allowed the second most points per game in the league last season (26.8).

Matthew Stafford threw 49 pass attempts in Week 1, equalling 317 yards. If he can replicate that production against the Cardinals, I predict it will lead to points.

NFL picks made at 9:56 a.m. on 09/11/24.

Bills vs. Dolphins Week 2 best bets and odds: Back the over on TNF

Week 2 opens with an electric AFC East matchup.

The pregame narrative: Both the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins started the NFL season 1-0 and play each other in an early divisional matchup. I’m hesitant to pick a side but confident taking the over on the total points as my best bet.

Check out my Bills vs. Dolphins best bet for their Week 2 matchup on Sept. 12.

Bills vs. Dolphins best bet

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Best Bet: Over 49 points (-110)

Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa both have elite big-play ability which was evident in Week 1.

The quarterbacks combined for 570 passing yards and five touchdowns. Allen contributed four of those (two passing, two rushing) but Tagovailoa was much more efficient in the air with 338 yards.

Allen isn’t equipped with the same talented receiving core he’s used to after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason. But his ability to create touchdowns on broken plays is the true X-factor for the offence. We saw that last week.

I don’t expect 338 yards from Tagovailoa to lead to a single touchdown often with threats like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane at his service.

The three combined for 315 receiving yards in Week 1. Just one TD feels like an outlier.

Kyler Murray was much less productive against the Bills with 162 passing yards and 57 yards on the ground, yet the Arizona Cardinals still scored 28 points.

Key stat: Four of the past five games between Buffalo and Miami have exceeded this total with an average total of 57.3 points.

Pick made at 11:38 a.m. ET 09/10/2024.

Bills vs. Dolphins Week 2 best bets and odds: Back the over and James Cook on TNF

Week 2 opens with an electric AFC East matchup.

The pregame narrative: Both the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins started the NFL season 1-0 and play each other in an early divisional matchup. I’m hesitant to pick a side but confident taking the over on the total points as my best bet. I also like James Cook to be involved in the passing game.

Check out my Bills vs. Dolphins best bets for the Week 2 matchup on Sept. 12.

Bills vs. Dolphins best bets

Embed: #94127

Go to full NFL betting markets

Best Bet: Over 48.5 points (-114)

Embed: #93425

Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa both have elite big-play ability which was evident in Week 1.

The quarterbacks combined for 570 passing yards and five touchdowns. Allen contributed four of those (two passing, two rushing) but Tagovailoa was much more efficient in the air with 338 yards.

Allen isn’t equipped with the same talented receiving core he’s used to after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason. But his ability to create touchdowns on broken plays is the true X-factor for the offence. We saw that last week.

I don’t expect 338 yards from Tagovailoa to lead to a single touchdown often with threats like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane at his service.

The three combined for 315 receiving yards in Week 1. Just one TD feels like an outlier.

Kyler Murray was much less productive against the Bills with 162 passing yards and 57 yards on the ground, yet the Arizona Cardinals still scored 28 points.

Key stat: Four of the past five games between Buffalo and Miami have exceeded this total with an average total of 57.3 points.

Quick Pick

James Cook over 17.5 receiving yards (-118): Cook hit this line in just over 50% of his games last season (9-of-17).

Embed: #94132

His role is only expanding this season with the previously mentioned losses to the Buffalo offence. Last week, Cook caught all three targets for 33 receiving yards. That was on a measly 23 pass attempts for Allen.

I expect that number to rise in Week 2, considering the QB averaged 34 attempts per game last season.

And Cook is the safety net with previously established chemistry with Allen. His 13.0% target share in Week 1 was up from last year’s 9.9%. My prediction is that this continues to be the case as the season continues.

Picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 09/10/2024.

UFC 306 odds: Sean O’Malley set to defend bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili

Sean O’Malley looks to add a title defence against the ever-dangerous Merab Dvalishvili.

The latest: This weekend’s event will be a true MMA spectacle from the Sphere in Las Vegas. One of the UFC’s biggest stars, O’Malley, headlines the event with a ferocious grappler challenging for his belt.

Check out our full UFC 306 odds for the Sept. 14 event in Las Vegas.

UFC 306 odds

Check out the latest UFC odds.

Fighter	Odds	Weight class	Odds	Fighter
Sean O’Malley (C)	-138	Bantamweight	+105	Merab Dvalishvili (1)
Alexa Grasso (C)	-143	Flyweight (W)	+110	Valentina Shevchenko (1)
Brian Ortega (3)	+140	Featherweight	-188	Diego Lopes (13)
Daniel Zellhuber	-264	Lightweight	+190	Esteban Ribovics
Ronaldo Rodriguez	-154	Flyweight	+120	Ode Osbourne

UFC odds as of 4:34 p.m. ET on 09/10/2024.

UFC 306 odds: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

O’Malley (-138) vs. Dvalishvili (+105)

O’Malley (18-1-0) has captivated the sport with his exciting fighting style and online personality.

He won the belt off of Aljamain Sterling by knockout in the second round at UFC 292 and then defended the title against Marlon Vera at UFC 299 in a dominant decision to redeem his only career loss.

Dvalishvili (17-4-0) has been on a war path of his own, winning eight straight fights en route to his first career championship opportunity.

This truly is a classic striker vs. wrestler matchup. O’Malley has earned 14 of his 18 wins by finish while Dvalishvili lands 6.43 takedowns per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats.

The Georgian attempted a record-breaking 49 takedowns and landed 11 in his bout against Petr Yan.

If O’Malley can stay on his feet and avoid the takedown, he should have another title defence come Monday. If Dvalishvili can take down the champ as he does to everyone else, fans will surely be hearing, “and new.”

Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds

Grasso (-143) vs. Shevchenko (+110)

This isn’t exactly a rubber match between these two, as Shevchenko (23-4-1) doesn’t have a win after fighting to a rare draw last time. But most thought the challenger won, so Dana White booked a third bout.

Grasso (16-3-1) had a 3-3 start to her UFC career but surged from there, going on a five-fight win streak that was capped off with a submission victory over Shevchenko at UFC 285.

As more time goes on, the advantage continues to sway to the champ’s side. She’s still in her prime at 31 years old while Shevchenko is 36.

It will be interesting to see if Shevchenko can tap into her prime and reclaim the title again before calling it a career.

Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Ortega (+140) vs. Lopes (-188)

Lopes (25-6-0) is the lower-ranked fighter but his -190 odds show how much potential he has as a prospect.

The Brazilian is 4-1 in the UFC. His one loss came on short notice to Movsar Evloev (18-0-0) in a close decision. A loss that ultimately raised his stock.

Ortega (16-3-0) has fewer career fights than Lopes, but 11 of them have been with the UFC (8-3). He’s 2-3 in his last five but two of those losses came against the champion at the time.

He’s one of the most dangerous fighters on the roster, evidenced by his seven UFC wins inside the distance. Regardless of the outcome, this fight should be awesome.

Zellhuber vs. Ribovics odds

Zellhuber (-264) vs. Ribovics (+190)

Zellhuber (15-1-0) is just 25 years old and one of the most exciting fighters in the lightweight division.

The Mexican stands at 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach and uses it effectively. He lands 5.78 significant strikes per minute.

Zellhuber also has a slick submission game, winning his last fight by anaconda choke. He also has a win by calf slicer on his record. Compelling stuff for jiu-jitsu nerds like myself.

Ribovics (13-1-0) is an impressive prospect himself. He lands 6.20 sig. strikes per minute and finished Terrance McKinney in the first round with a head kick his last time out.

At 2-to-1 odds, the Argentinian may be worth a sprinkle in what I believe will be a competitive fight.

Rodriguez vs. Osbourne odds

Rodriguez (-154) vs. Osbourne (+120)

Osbourne (12-7-0) has had an up-and-down UFC tenure. He started with a loss, then won four of his next six, and then followed that up with consecutive losses. Both came by rear naked choke.

Rodriguez (13-2-0) is the prospect in this fight with just one UFC fight under his belt. He won his promotion debut by rear naked choke, so that’s something to keep an eye on.

Besides that, he’s 12-1 over his last 13 bouts and is the deserving favourite with all the momentum going into his first main card appearance. Hopefully, the lights aren’t too bright.