Spencer Closs

An exciting pitching matchup is the story on Sunday night when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets.

The pregame narrative: Even though I’m expecting a low-scoring game with Zack Wheeler and Tylor Megill on the mound, I like the price on Pete Alonso’s hits prop. To back the starting pitchers, I’m also eyeing the under on the total for the first five innings.

Check out my Phillies vs. Mets picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Sept. 22.

Phillies vs. Mets picks

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Best Bet: Alonso over 0.5 hits (-130)

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Alonso has a pretty good history against Wheeler so I’m willing to take this risk.

The “Polar Bear” is 10-for-31 (.323) off the Phillies’ ace with five walks and just six strikeouts. That last part is nice to see for the swing-happy first baseman.

Additionally, Alonso is hot right now. He has hits in seven of his last nine games and is hitting .333 over that span.

This line was set with the pitching matchup heavily in mind and I get that. But with the history Alonso has vs. his counterpart, my interest is piqued.

Key stat: Alonso has a hit in seven of the last 10 games against Wheeler.

Quick picks

Under 3.5 runs – first five innings (-125): Consider this as best bet No. 2.

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Wheeler has been mentioned briefly already but I want to get back to him. He has a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

Philly’s starter has given up two or fewer runs in nine straight starts and has pitched over six innings per outing during that time.

Now let’s transition to Megill. The righty is on a roll right now, giving up one or fewer runs in four of his past five starts.

His history against the Phillies’ lineup is encouraging, too. The current offence has 15 hits in 72 at-bats (.208) with 20 strikeouts.

My prediction is this game ends up being a bit of a pitching duel and this is the best way to take advantage.

Picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET 09/22/2024.

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The Colorado Rockies visit the Los Angeles Dodgers to start a three-game set.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani set the baseball world on fire last night with a record-breaking performance and I’m backing him to do damage again tonight. Tommy Edman has been a force for the Dodgers, so I’m also interested in his run prop.

Check out my Rockies vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 20.

Rockies vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+100)

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After Ohtani’s legendary performance yesterday, I had to jump on this prop at even money when I saw it.

The soon-to-be NL MVP went 6-for-6 with three home runs, 10 RBI and two stolen bases. That made him the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and swipe 50 bags in the same season.

Ohtani cleared this line in three of his last five games and Kyle Freeland doesn’t pose a huge threat as the Rockies’ starter.

He is a lefty, which poses a bit of a threat to the lefty-hitting Ohtani. BUt Freeland’s 4.89 ERA isn’t all that good and Ohtani has six total bases off him in three at-bats. A small sample but it can’t be ignored.

The Dodgers slugger has two or more total bases in 14 of his last 25 starts and I like the price here for one of baseball’s greatest hitters.

Key stat: Ohtani is 2-for-3 off Freeland with a double and home run.

Quick picks

Edman over 0.5 runs (+106): Another Dodger who’s been lowkey on fire is Edman.

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Over his last 12 games, the infielder is batting .327 with 10 runs scored. He has six homers over that span and has another prime matchup tonight.

In his career against Freeland, Edman is 5-for-12 (.417) with as many extra-base hits (two) as strikeouts.

Since joining the Dodgers, the former Cardinal is hitting .438 off left-handed pitching. He typically bats in the heart of the order but still has good hitters like Max Muncy and Andy Pages behind him.

Picks made at 9:13 a.m. ET 09/20/2024.

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The Yankees head west to start a three-game set with the Seattle Mariners.

The pregame narrative: Aaron Judge has a tough matchup with Bryan Woo, but I’m willing to back the likely AL MVP at plus money. For Seattle, I’m expecting Randy Arozarena to stay hot at the plate.

Check out my Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 17.

Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks

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Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+120)

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This is certainly a nice spot at the odds but there’s concern with Woo on the mound for Seattle.

The righty is posting a 2.39 ERA and held Judge hitless through two career plate appearances. But I still believe the powerful outfielder can do damage against Woo — especially since Judge is in the middle of a hot streak.

He has at least one hit in seven of his last eight games and has cleared this mark in three straight, smacking two home runs along the way.

It’s certainly a blockbuster matchup, but I’m backing the runaway AL MVP favourite to get the better of Woo tonight.

And with Juan Soto struggling lately (5-for-32 since Sept. 7), I’d rather put my money on Judge alone and take the over on his bases prop.

Key stat: Judge leads MLB with a 1.147 OPS.

Quick picks

Arozarena over 0.5 hits (-136): At one point in time, this price would’ve been too good to be true. Arozarena is on another strong run, so I think he’s worth a look on this prop market today.

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The Mariners outfielder has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games and he’s looking good heading down the final stretch of the season.

Luis Gil is on the mound for the Yankees and he’s having a great season, but even when he’s pitching well, he struggles to get deep into games. He’s only gone more than five innings once in his past seven starts.

Over his last 19 games, Arozarena is batting .288 with 21 hits. He could see a lot of different arms tonight and I’m backing the streaking hitter to get a base knock.

Picks made at 2:55 p.m. ET 09/17/2024.

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