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Best NHL prop picks Nov. 12: Bet on McDavid and Pastrnak to put on a show tonight

Two superstars are the targets of my NHL prop picks for Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Connor McDavid is healthy again and I think the Edmonton Oilers are in for an offensive explosion against the New York Islanders. I also love the value on David Pastrnak scoring multiple points tonight.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 12 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: McDavid to record a power play point (+150)

In McDavid’s second game back from injury, the Oilers destroyed Vancouver Canucks 7-3.

Edmonton’s captain scored a powerplay goal and added two assists in a three-point performance.

Tonight, the Oilers get the Islanders and I like the matchup.

New York allows the 12th-most goals per game (3.07)

It has the league’s third-worst penalty kill (65.6%).

Edmonton owns a 15.8% PP conversion rate this season but I expect it to start creeping up toward last year’s number (26.3%).

Key stat: Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, McDavid has 242 PP points in 370 games.

Quick pick

Pastrnak to record 2+ points (+185): This value doesn’t come around often with Pastrnak but he’s in a bit of a cold spell.

The Bruins’ top point producer has 14 points in 16 games with just four multi-point performances on the season.

He’s well off the 110-point pace he’s achieved over the last two seasons but this is a good spot and a nice price to back him at.

The St. Louis Blues rank in the bottom 10 in multiple defensive stats:

3.47 goals against per game (27th)

30.3 shots against per game (24th)

75.6% penalty kill (23rd)

St. Louis lost back-to-back games and is fresh off an 8-1 thrashing by the Washington Capitals. If there’s any time to get behind Pastrnak, it’s now.

NHL picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 11/12/2024.

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Raptors vs. Bucks same-game parlay predicitions Nov. 12: Expect Barrett and Giannis to start NBA Cup with strong performances

The Toronto Raptors start their NBA Cup journey against the Milwaukee Bucks.

The pregame narrative: RJ Barrett has struggled recently but I have reason to believe he will have a strong game tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo has good value on his points prop while Jakob Poeltl is the target of the final leg in this +350 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 12.

Raptors vs. Bucks predictions

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Parlay: Barrett over 20.5 points + Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points + Poeltl over 9.5 rebounds (+350)

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Barrett over 20.5 points (-150): If you haven’t been paying attention, Barrett is finally fulfilling his potential with his home team.

The Canadian is averaging 23.1 points per game and has taken on a huge offensive responsibility with Scottie Barnes sidelined.

Barrett has missed this mark in three out of his last four games but there’s reason to be hopeful against the Bucks.

Milwaukee owns the ninth-worst defensive rating (117.4)

It allows the second-most points to opposing shooting guards (26.43)

The Bucks also allow the third-most points to point guards (28.24)

I included the PG stat because Immanuel Quickley is a game-time decision with a new elbow injury and he was labelled as ‘iffy’, according to Rotowire.

Milwaukee has trouble defending at the point of attack and Barrett would undoubtedly be the top ball-handler with Quickley out.

Barrett is capable of going off in any game. He already has three 30-plus point performances in eight starts this season and I like the matchup here.

SGP legs

Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points (-167): Toronto plays hard every night but that doesn’t mean it has been good defensively.

To be frank, the Raptors own the worst defensive rating in the NBA (121.5).

They allow opponents to shoot the third-highest field goal percentage (48.5%) so this should be a matchup Giannis can feast in.

Antetokounmpo has cleared this line in five of his last six games

He averages 31.6 points per game.

Let’s be honest, no one on Toronto can guard Giannis near the basket.

Poeltl over 9.5 rebounds (-157): The big man averages 11.4 rebounds per game and will need to be out there as much as possible to nullify the Bucks’ size advantage.

Poeltl recorded double-digit rebounds in seven of the past nine games.

The Austrian is averaging a career-high 32.4 minutes per game (the next highest is 27.2) and is a huge part of the Raptors’ offence and defence.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 11/12/24.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Senators Nov. 12: Matthew Knies continues to be productive in increased role

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators clash for the first time this season.

The pregame narrative: The Battle of Ontario is on and Toronto has been the better team this season. I’m betting on the Leafs to win a low-scoring game while backing Matthew Knies to score a point.

Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Senators for the game on Nov. 12.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Senators

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Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-136)

Toronto is playing some inspiring hockey right now.

Under new coach Craig Berube, the Leafs are starting to click and have a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games.

His team is also playing really good defence right now.

The Leafs allow the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.56)

They kill penalties at the eighth-highest rate (83.9%)

Toronto has allowed four goals over the last four games

If the Leafs go with a rotating goalie approach it should be Anthony Stolarz getting the call tonight. He’s been fantastic this season but we’ll touch more on that later.

Key stat: Toronto is 7-2-0 at home this season.

Quick picks

Under 6 goals (-115): I feel good about both starters tonight but let’s get back to Stolarz.

The lifetime backup had his opportunity to show his stuff as a starter with Joseph Woll sidelined and he impressed.

Stolarz has a 2.00 GAA and .930 SV%

He’s stopped the fifth most goals above expected (7.0) this season, per Money Puck.

He’s allowed just three goals across his last three starts.

Linus Ullmark is expected to start for the Sens and although he hasn’t been good this season (.890 SV%), the Swede has never finished a season with a SV% below .905 and he’s a former Vezina winner.

Ottawa is also a good defensive team, limiting opponents to the sixth-fewest shots per game (27.2).

Knies to record a point (-134): With Auston Matthews doubtful to return to the lineup tonight, Knies should continue to have an increased role.

The Winger is getting a career-high 17:58 of ice time per game and that just keeps increasing. He’s played at least 18:30 in eight straight games.

As a result, he has 10 points in 16 games. Knies is also skating with the first powerplay unit in Matthews’ absence and he has shown positive results scoring three PP points in his last three games.

He’s playing on the first line with the red-hot Mitch Marner and I love his value to get on the scoresheet tonight.

NHL picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 11/12/24.

UFC 309 odds: Jon Jones makes first title defence against Stipe Miocic

Jon Jones makes his return after a long layoff to face Stipe Miocic in the octagon.

The latest: The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden with a long-awaited main event between Jones and Miocic. Before that, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler run it back in what should be an exciting co-main event.

Check out our full UFC 309 odds for the Nov. 16 event in New York.

UFC 309 odds

Check out the latest UFC odds.

Fighter	Odds	Weight class	Odds	Fighter
Jon Jones (C)	-750	Heavyweight	+450	Stipe Miocic (8)
Charles Oliveira (2)	-286	Lightweight	+210	Michael Chandler (7)
Bo Nickal (NR)	-1,200	Middleweight	+600	Paul Craig (NR)
Mauricio Ruffy	-1,000	Lightweight	+550	James Llontop

UFC odds as of 2:12 p.m. ET on 11/11/2024.

UFC 306 odds: Jones vs. Miocic

Jones (-750) vs. Miocic (+450)

The greatest to ever do it is back in action and there’s no better venue than MSG for his return.

The long layoff would usually be concerning but his opponent Miocic has been away from the cage for a much longer time (three and a half years).

Most fans are wondering why Miocic deserves this opportunity and the answer is … he doesn’t.

At 42 years old, it is understandable why Miocic is such a large underdog as he’s only fought twice since 2020.

Jones’ most recent bout against Cyril Gane came after a three-year break and Jones looked as good as ever, submitting Gane in the first round to claim heavyweight gold.

This could very well be the champs’ last fight before retirement but he should have no issues defeating Miocic on November 16.

Oliveira vs. Chandler odds

Oliveira (-286) vs. Chandler (+210)

When these two fought for the first time, they put on a show.

Oliveira dropped Chandler with a left hook in the second round and finished him off with ground and pound. It was a back-and-forth bout that the Brazillian won and walked away with a performance bonus.

Since then, Chandler has been waiting for a Conor McGregor fight that is seemingly off the table while Oliveira has been active, coming off a loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 in April.

Because of the first result and his activity, ‘Do Bronx’ is the rightful favourite — but his counterpart is explosive. Chandler had Oliveira hurt badly before losing and has the tools to win the rematch if bettors like his price as an underdog.

Nickal vs. Craig odds

Nickal (-1,200) vs. Craig (+600)

Bo Nickal is one of the most exciting newcomers to the UFC roster. He’s been a huge favourite in every fight so far and nothing changes for this one.

The former NCAA Division I national champion wrestler has made quick work of all three UFC opponents to this point, needing less than two rounds for each win.

Craig is a high-level BJJ blackbelt with 14 career wins by submission. He’s pulled off huge upsets before and could catch Nickal but his college wrestling pedigree should be enough to keep himself out of danger.

Ruffy vs. Llontop odds

Ruffy (-1,000) vs. Llontop (+550)

The Brazillian fighter, Ruffy, has been compared to Conor McGregor by fans and while the hype is certainly there, so is the talent.

He has 10 professional MMA wins, all inside the distance, and his fighting style is worth watching.

https://twitter.com/MMA_CASUALS_/status/1786906808021385608

On the other side, Llontop is 0-2 in the UFC but could certainly make a name for himself if he were to upset Ruffy with the MMA world watching.

Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing odds Nov. 15: Former heavyweight champ is sizeable underdog

Jake Paul and Mike Tyson will step into the ring this fall at AT&T Stadium.

The latest: Paul (10-1) is in the early stages of his boxing career while Tyson (50-6-0-2) hasn’t fought in a sanctioned bout since 2005. This fight was postponed from its original July date and fans are hoping Tyson is still in good enough health to compete next Saturday.

Check out our Paul vs. Tyson odds for their fight on Nov. 15.

Paul vs. Tyson odds

Paul/Tyson betting markets	Betting odds
Paul to win	-250
Tyson to win	+175

Boxing odds as of 2:19 p.m. on 11/11/2024.

Go to full Paul/Tyson betting markets.

“Iron” Mike Tyson is a thing of the past but the 58-year-old still has the name value to sell a big fight.

And that’s what he has coming up against one of boxing’s most popular names.

Tyson’s lone bout since 2005 came against Roy Jones Jr. in 2020. The contest ended in a split draw, although many believed Tyson should have been declared the winner.

This fight was originally billed to take place in July but the former heavyweight champ withdrew due to health issues after suffering a medical emergency on a flight.

Now Paul is a bigger favourite than he was for the original contest. But that hasn’t slowed Tyson’s confidence.

https://twitter.com/BoxingKingdom14/status/1852453813095116975

The “Problem Child” has made a career from having the advantage in his bouts. He strictly boxes either retired fighters or current fighters who spent most of their careers in lower weight classes.

Paul had that luxury against Tyson’s replacement, Mike Perry.

The former UFC fighter spent the majority of his time with the promotion competing at 170 pounds. Their bout in July was at 200 pounds and Paul walked away with a sixth-round TKO.

Paul is well deserving of being the -250 favourite. But a lot of fan sentiment appears to be behind Tyson, who would throw a wrench in Paul’s boxing career with a victory.

Lions vs. Texans Week 10 same-game parlay predictions: Jahmyr Gibbs and Tank Dell should feast on Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football provides an exciting matchup this week with the Detroit Lions visiting the Houston Texans.

The pregame narrative: Not every Sunday night game is worth your time, but I’d suggest tuning in for this one. I like prop picks on Jahmyr Gibbs and Tank Dell mixed with the over on a teased-down game total for a +280 ticket.

Check out my Lions vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions for Sunday Night Football on Nov. 10.

Lions vs. Texans predictions

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Parlay: Gibbs over 54.5 rushing yards + Dell over 54.5 receiving yards + Over 47.5 points (+280)

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Gibbs over 54.5 rushing yards (-175): The Lions have shown why having two great running backs can be a winning formula.

Gibbs was selected 12th overall in 2023 and is having an excellent sophomore year. Here are some notable stats:

6.4 yards per carry (first in the NFL)

82.0 rushing yards per game (eighth)

Gibbs cleared this total in seven straight games

Houston is a top-three passing defence (167.4 yards against/game) but allows the 12th most rushing yards (114.2/game).

Gibbs is so efficient that he shouldn’t need many touches to clear this modest against the Texans’ defence.

Other parlay picks

Dell over 54.5 receiving yards (-157): Nico Collins is expected to return for the Texans, but I don’t believe that will completely hinder Dell’s production.

Since Collins sustained his injury, Houston lost Stefon Diggs for the season and needs options desperately.

Last week, Dell caught six of Stroud’s 11 completed passes. He made the most of the opportunity and turned those receptions into 126 yards.

Detroit struggles against the pass, allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game (250.8).

Collins’ return would be huge news for the Texans, but in my view, there is loads of potential for both receivers to have big nights.

Over 47.5 points (-148): In a continued theme from the first two legs, I’m expecting lots of offence.

The Lions have gone over this total in four of their last five games

Detroit has the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offence (32.3 PPG)

Additionally, Stroud averages 305.3 passing yards per game at home. That’s much better than his average of 183.6 per game on the road.

Both offences have the tools to put on a show tonight.

Picks made at 2:24 p.m. ET 11/10/2024.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions Nov. 10: Jokic and Irving poised to lead teams offensively

The Dallas Mavericks may be without their top player against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is questionable for tonight but I still like the Mavericks to cover an alternate spread. I’m including Nikola Jokic and Kyrie Irving props picks to form a +290 SGP.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 10.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions

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Parlay: Mavericks +6.5 + Jokic over 9.5 assists + Irving over 23.5 points (+290)

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Mavericks +6.5 (-165): According to the injury report, Doncic is a game-time decision with a groin injury. He was labelled as ‘iffy’ for tonight, per Rotowire, which doesn’t sound promising.

The prospect of Dallas missing its superstar doesn’t scare me like it once did, as the team has built a true contender around him. The Mavericks are …

7th in defensive rating (111.2)

10th in offensive rating (116.0)

2nd in turnovers per game (11.2)

That offensive rating has a lot to do with Doncic, but the other two stats are from team success and show the importance of strong depth and coaching.

Denver is rolling right now, winning four straight, but it has only covered this spread in two of nine games this season and Dallas should be no pushover — even if Doncic is out.

SGP legs

Jokic over 9.5 assists (-136): A big man getting this line should be crazy, but if you’ve watched Jokic play, you know he can smash this total.

In fact, he’s done so in five of the past six games. When he didn’t, he finished with nine assists in 29 minutes in a blowout win against the Utah Jazz.

As mentioned before, the Nuggets are on a bit of a winning streak, so they should continue to lean on Jokic.

His 32.9 player efficiency rating in 2021-2022 is the highest for a single season ever, and his 31.7 PER so far this season isn’t far behind.

Jokic is averaging 11.3 assists per game
Over the last six games, he’s averaged 13.5 assists

The Joker is already considered the best passing big man ever and he’s reliable against this line.

Irving over 23.5 points (-182): If Doncic is out, this will look a lot nicer so that is something worth monitoring.

Either way, I believe Irving will have to carry more of the load for Dallas tonight.

Irving averages 23.7 points per game on 50.6% from the field and 52.0% from 3-point range. That is ridiculous efficiency, and he cleared this line in each of the past four games in which he took more than 12 shots.

Any uptick in usage would be greatly beneficial to this leg of the parlay.

NBA picks made at 12:48 p.m. on 11/10/24.

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NHL best bets Nov. 10: Back the Wild to continue rolling, offence in Sharks vs. Devils

I have one pick for each of the three NHL games on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: The New Jersey Devils have been part of a lot of high-scoring games at home and I expect that to continue against the San Jose Sharks. I also like the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild to win their respective games.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 10 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Devils/Sharks over 6.5 goals (-106)

The Devils get a crack at one of the NHL’s worst defensive teams.

San Jose allows the fourth-most goals per game (3.67/game) and the second-most shots (32.9/game).

New Jersey has scored three or more times in 14 of 17 games this season, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if Jack Hughes and the offence covered a majority of this total.

The Sharks aren’t good offensively either but they’ve been consistent. They’ve scored at least two goals in eight straight games.

The Devils have been worse defensively at home, allowing an average of 4.4 goals across the last five games in New Jersey.

However, their offence has been even better, scoring 4.8 goals per game during that span.

Key stat: Five straight Devils home games went over this total.

Quick picks

Blue Jackets moneyline (+100): Anaheim was carried in the early part of the season by good goaltending but the wheels have fallen off.

Lukas Dostal had an incredible start to the year but gave up 14 goals across his last three starts and the Ducks continue to play uninspiring hockey in front of him.

The team has relied heavily on the 24-year-old netminder and fatigue has to be a factor now.

He’s never made more than 38 starts in a season

Dostal has started 11 of Anaheim’s first 13 games

Considering the Ducks also allow the most shots per game (34.9), it’s safe to say most goalies would need some rest.

John Gibson was removed from the injured reserve on Friday so he could start tonight. I can’t see it making much of a difference in front of that defence, though.

The Blue Jackets have lost four in a row but this is a good spot to buy low on them.

Wild -1.5 (+130): The puck line market is something I’ve been testing over recent weeks and it’s been successful.

Minnesota has been firing on all cylinders and gets a nice matchup tonight, so let’s dig in.

Chicago is 3-7 over its last 10 games, and five of those losses came by two-plus goals. Another one was to the Sharks, which is a red flag in its own right.

On the other hand, the Wild are 10-2-2 and eight of their last nine wins have covered this puck line.

They rank seventh in goals for (3.71) while allowing the fifth-fewest (2.57) per game. With numbers like that, it’s no wonder Minnesota keeps winning games.

NHL best bets made at 11:15 a.m. ET 11/10/2024.

NHL best bets Nov. 10: Back the Wild to continue rolling, offence in Sharks vs. Devils

I have one pick for each of the three NHL games on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: The New Jersey Devils have been part of a lot of high-scoring games at home and I expect that to continue against the San Jose Sharks. I also like the Columbus Blue Jackets and Minnesota Wild to win their respective games.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 10 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Devils/Sharks over 6 goals (-122)

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The Devils get a crack at one of the NHL’s worst defensive teams.

San Jose allows the fourth-most goals per game (3.67/game) and the second-most shots (32.9/game).

New Jersey has scored three or more times in 14 of 17 games this season, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if Jack Hughes and the offence covered a majority of this total.

The Sharks aren’t good offensively either but they’ve been consistent. They’ve scored at least two goals in eight straight games.

The Devils have been worse defensively at home, allowing an average of 4.4 goals across the last five games in New Jersey.

However, their offence has been even better, scoring 4.8 goals per game during that span.

Key stat: Five straight Devils home games went over this total.

Quick picks

Blue Jackets moneyline (-108): Anaheim was carried in the early part of the season by good goaltending but the wheels have fallen off.

Lukas Dostal had an incredible start to the year but gave up 14 goals across his last three starts and the Ducks continue to play uninspiring hockey in front of him.

The team has relied heavily on the 24-year-old netminder and fatigue has to be a factor now.

He’s never made more than 38 starts in a season

Dostal has started 11 of Anaheim’s first 13 games

Considering the Ducks also allow the most shots per game (34.9), it’s safe to say most goalies would need some rest.

John Gibson was removed from the injured reserve on Friday so he could start tonight. I can’t see it making much of a difference in front of that defence, though.

The Blue Jackets have lost four in a row but this is a good spot to buy low on them.

Wild -1.5 (+135): The puck line market is something I’ve been testing over recent weeks and it’s been successful.

Minnesota has been firing on all cylinders and gets a nice matchup tonight, so let’s dig in.

Chicago is 3-7 over its last 10 games, and five of those losses came by two-plus goals. Another one was to the Sharks, which is a red flag in its own right.

On the other hand, the Wild are 10-2-2 and eight of their last nine wins have covered this puck line.

They rank seventh in goals for (3.71) while allowing the fifth-fewest (2.57) per game. With numbers like that, it’s no wonder Minnesota keeps winning games.

NHL best bets made at 10:19 a.m. ET 11/10/2024.

Dolphins vs. Rams Week 10 MNF best bets and odds: Expect Stafford to lead Los Angeles to a win

The Miami Dolphins head west for a meeting with the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night football.

The pregame narrative: L.A. has its offensive playmakers back and I’m expecting the Rams to continue to roll with another win at home. The over on Matthew Stafford’s passing prop is also a good bet with his receivers healthy.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Rams best bets for Monday Night Football on Nov. 11.

Dolphins vs. Rams best bets

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Best Bet: Rams -1 (-113)

I backed the Rams in this week’s ATS picks but I have a chance to elaborate further.

To start, Los Angeles is 8-2 in its last 10 games with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp active and it is understandable why.

Both are among the elite receivers in football and Kyren Williams has turned into one of the more consistently good running backs in the league.

Since getting their star pass catchers back, the Rams are 2-0 with big wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings.

Miami started the season as a strong defensive team but the cracks are starting to form. It’s allowed an average of 28.5 points over the last two weeks.

Tua Tagovailoa has returned but things haven’t gotten better for the 2-6 Dolphins. They are 0-2 since he returned and although the offence has improved, the injury-riddled defence is struggling to contain opponents.

Key stat: The Rams are 3-1 at home while the Dolphins are 1-3 on the road.

Quick pick

Stafford over 248.5 passing yards (-113): Stafford is celebrating his receivers coming back by slinging the football.

The Rams’ quarterback attempted 78 passes across the last two weeks while completing 50 of them for 577 yards, easily clearing this line in both contests.

Miami has been good for most of the season at containing QBs as they allow the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (183.1)

However, as mentioned before, there are cracks in the foundation and Kyler Murray and Josh Allen combined to average 270 yards against Miami across the last two weeks.

I don’t know if there is an offensive core that offers more than the Rams when fully healthy and I predict Stafford to continue being the top beneficiary.

Picks made at 3:48 p.m. ET 11/09/2024.