The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators clash for the first time this season.
The pregame narrative: The Battle of Ontario is on and Toronto has been the better team this season. I’m betting on the Leafs to win a low-scoring game while backing Matthew Knies to score a point.
Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Senators for the game on Nov. 12.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Senators
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Best Bet: Maple Leafs moneyline (-136)
Toronto is playing some inspiring hockey right now.
Under new coach Craig Berube, the Leafs are starting to click and have a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games.
His team is also playing really good defence right now.
- The Leafs allow the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.56)
- They kill penalties at the eighth-highest rate (83.9%)
- Toronto has allowed four goals over the last four games
If the Leafs go with a rotating goalie approach it should be Anthony Stolarz getting the call tonight. He’s been fantastic this season but we’ll touch more on that later.
Key stat: Toronto is 7-2-0 at home this season.
Quick picks
Under 6 goals (-115): I feel good about both starters tonight but let’s get back to Stolarz.
The lifetime backup had his opportunity to show his stuff as a starter with Joseph Woll sidelined and he impressed.
- Stolarz has a 2.00 GAA and .930 SV%
- He’s stopped the fifth most goals above expected (7.0) this season, per Money Puck.
- He’s allowed just three goals across his last three starts.
Linus Ullmark is expected to start for the Sens and although he hasn’t been good this season (.890 SV%), the Swede has never finished a season with a SV% below .905 and he’s a former Vezina winner.
Ottawa is also a good defensive team, limiting opponents to the sixth-fewest shots per game (27.2).
Knies to record a point (-134): With Auston Matthews doubtful to return to the lineup tonight, Knies should continue to have an increased role.
The Winger is getting a career-high 17:58 of ice time per game and that just keeps increasing. He’s played at least 18:30 in eight straight games.
As a result, he has 10 points in 16 games. Knies is also skating with the first powerplay unit in Matthews’ absence and he has shown positive results scoring three PP points in his last three games.
He’s playing on the first line with the red-hot Mitch Marner and I love his value to get on the scoresheet tonight.
NHL picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 11/12/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.