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UFC 309 picks and predictions: Take the under in Oliveira vs. Chandler lightweight bout

UFC 309 is headlined by Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, but I made picks for two other fights on the card.

The pre-fight narrative: Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler rematch in the co-main event in what I believe will be a short bout. I also like Eryk Anders to win the featured prelim against Chris Weidman.

Check out my UFC 309 picks and predictions for Nov. 16.

UFC 309 picks overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

UFC 309 picks	Odds
Chandler/Oliveira under 1.5 rounds	-120
Anders to win	-125

UFC picks made at 3:08 p.m. ET on 11/14/24.

Go to full UFC 309 betting markets.

UFC 309 picks

Best Bet: Chandler/Oliveira under 1.5 rounds

In their first bout, Oliveira found Chandler’s chin less than 30 seconds into the second round and finished him off with ground and pound to get the win.

The fight was fast-paced and could have ended even earlier, with Chandler hurting Oliveira badly in the first round.

It’s no surprise as these two are arguably the most explosive fighters in the division.

Oliveira holds the UFC record with 20 finishes

Ten of Chandler’s last 13 fights have ended inside the distance

When two guys meet with a violent track record, I immediately look to the under.

Key Stat: Both fighters have an average fight time of less than eight minutes in the UFC (Oliveira, 7:08; Chandler, 7:48).

Other picks

Anders to win (-125): Anders is my favourite moneyline pick on the entire card at this price.

He fights Weidman, who was once a UFC champion, but is far removed from his prime ahead of a bad matchup against Anders.

Weidman is the older of the two at 40 years old.

Six of his last seven losses have come by KO/TKO.

He’s 2-4 in his last six fights.

The former middleweight king relies heavily on his collegiate wrestling background but should be the less athletic fighter this weekend.

Anders himself is a former college athlete, having played linebacker at Alabama.

His 78% takedown defence, per UFC Stats, shows he can be hard to get to the mat and I can see Anders having a sizeable strength advantage.

Weidman takes down his opponent 3.44 times per 15 minutes but at a measly 42% success rate.

I see Anders being able to stuff takedowns and control the clinch using his strength. That should be enough to outpoint the former champ, but the chance for a knockout is there as well.

UFC 309 picks and predictions: Take the under in Oliveira vs. Chandler lightweight bout

UFC 309 is headlined by Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic, but I made picks for two other fights on the card.

The pre-fight narrative: Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler rematch in the co-main event in what I believe will be a short bout. I also like Eryk Anders to win the featured prelim against Chris Weidman.

Check out my UFC 309 picks and predictions for Nov. 16.

UFC 309 picks overview

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

UFC 309 picks	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Chandler/Oliveira under 1.5 rounds	-113	Add to betslip
Anders to win	-117	Add to betslip

UFC picks made at 3:08 p.m. ET on 11/14/24.

Go to full UFC 309 betting markets.

UFC 309 picks

Best Bet: Chandler/Oliveira under 1.5 rounds

In their first bout, Oliveira found Chandler’s chin less than 30 seconds into the second round and finished him off with ground and pound to get the win.

The fight was fast-paced and could have ended even earlier, with Chandler hurting Oliveira badly in the first round.

It’s no surprise as these two are arguably the most explosive fighters in the division.

Oliveira holds the UFC record with 20 finishes

Ten of Chandler’s last 13 fights have ended inside the distance

When two guys meet with a violent track record, I immediately look to the under.

Key Stat: Both fighters have an average fight time of less than eight minutes in the UFC (Oliveira, 7:08; Chandler, 7:48).

Other picks

Anders to win (-117): Anders is my favourite moneyline pick on the entire card at this price.

He fights Weidman, who was once a UFC champion, but is far removed from his prime ahead of a bad matchup against Anders.

Weidman is the older of the two at 40 years old.

Six of his last seven losses have come by KO/TKO.

He’s 2-4 in his last six fights.

The former middleweight king relies heavily on his collegiate wrestling background but should be the less athletic fighter this weekend.

Anders himself is a former college athlete, having played linebacker at Alabama.

His 78% takedown defence, per UFC Stats, shows he can be hard to get to the mat and I can see Anders having a sizeable strength advantage.

Weidman takes down his opponent 3.44 times per 15 minutes but at a measly 42% success rate.

I see Anders being able to stuff takedowns and control the clinch using his strength. That should be enough to outpoint the former champ, but the chance for a knockout is there as well.

Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers 2024 Grey Cup picks and predictions: Bet on Toronto to cover the spread and the under

The Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers clash in the Grey Cup Final.

The pregame narrative: Winnipeg has only lost once since Week 8, and it opens as a nine-point favourite over the Argos. Even though Chad Kelly will be sidelined for the big game, I still like Toronto to cover the lofty spread.

Check out my Grey Cup picks and predictions for the game on Nov. 17.

Grey Cup picks

Full CFL Grey Cup markets

Best Bet: Argonauts +9 (-110)

If Chad Kelly was healthy, this spread would be a lot smaller, but I have faith in Toronto’s backup.

Nick Arbuckle entered the semifinal game against the Montreal Alouettes and completed 5-of-8 passes for 73 yards en route to the Argonaut win.

In his four games played during Kelly’s suspension, Toronto went 2-2. In the two games it lost, Toronto easily covered this number, losing by three to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and then by one to the Edmonton Elk.

He also played in a game against the Blue Bombers, where Toronto won 16-14.

For as good as the Bombers are playing, they haven’t covered this spread frequently. Including the playoffs, they are 5-13-1 against this line.

I don’t necessarily think the Argonauts will win this game but their defence is strong (led the CFL with 48 sacks) and they went 6-4 without Kelly this year.

Key stat: Additionally, Toronto went 2-0 against Winnipeg this season.

Quick pick

Under 51 points (-110): Multiple factors point to the under having some good value:

Winnipeg scored just 25 points total in two meetings with Toronto

The two games ended with an average of 27.5 total points

The Blue Bombers allow the fewest points per game (20.3)

In conclusion, Winnipeg’s defence is elite, and Toronto’s defence has stepped up against Winnipeg all season.

To put it in perspective, the Bombers scored less than 20 points just three times this year – Two of those games were against Toronto.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 11/14/24.

Argonauts vs. Blue Bombers 2024 Grey Cup picks and predictions: Bet on Toronto to cover the spread and the under

The Toronto Argonauts and Winnipeg Blue Bombers clash in the Grey Cup Final.

The pregame narrative: Winnipeg has only lost once since Week 8, and it opens as a nine-point favourite over the Argos. Even though Chad Kelly will be sidelined for the big game, I still like Toronto to cover the lofty spread.

Check out my Grey Cup picks and predictions for the game on Nov. 17.

Grey Cup picks

Full CFL Grey Cup markets

Best Bet: Argonauts +9 (-110)

Embed: #100320

If Chad Kelly was healthy, this spread would be a lot smaller, but I have faith in Toronto’s backup.

Nick Arbuckle entered the semifinal game against the Montreal Alouettes and completed 5-of-8 passes for 73 yards en route to the Argonaut win.

In his four games played during Kelly’s suspension, Toronto went 2-2. In the two games it lost, Toronto easily covered this number, losing by three to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and then by one to the Edmonton Elk.

He also played in a game against the Blue Bombers, where Toronto won 16-14.

For as good as the Bombers are playing, they haven’t covered this spread frequently. Including the playoffs, they are 5-13-1 against this line.

I don’t necessarily think the Argonauts will win this game but their defence is strong (led the CFL with 48 sacks) and they went 6-4 without Kelly this year.

Key stat: Additionally, Toronto went 2-0 against Winnipeg this season.

Quick pick

Under 51 points (-110): Multiple factors point to the under having some good value:

Winnipeg scored just 25 points total in two meetings with Toronto

The two games ended with an average of 27.5 total points

The Blue Bombers allow the fewest points per game (20.3)

In conclusion, Winnipeg’s defence is elite, and Toronto’s defence has stepped up against Winnipeg all season.

To put it in perspective, the Bombers scored less than 20 points just three times this year – Two of those games were against Toronto.

Picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 11/14/24.

NHL prop picks Nov. 14: Back Kaprizov, Michkov and Buchnevich on Thursday

Thursday’s NHL schedule has 10 games, which means there will be plenty of options for prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Kirill Kaprizov is taking the league by storm and has a good matchup to go off again tonight. Elsewhere, take Matvei Michkov and Pavel Buchnevich to both register a point.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 14 below.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best Bet: Kaprizov to record 2+ points (-106)

Kaprizov has been on fire this season. Here are some notable numbers:

The Minnesota winger has 28 points in 15 games

In the past three games, he has seven points

And tonight, he plays the NHL’s worst defence. Montreal allows the most goals per game (4.13) and has allowed four or more goals in three consecutive outings.

Kaprizov leads Wild forwards in average ice time (22:10) by a wide margin and has contributed to 52.8% of all Minnesota goals this season.

Key stat: He is 9-6 against this line.

Quick pick

Michkov to record a point (-120): The rookie is having a great season. He scored 12 points in his first 14 career games.

Michkov recorded three points in his last two games after going pointless in the previous four.

I expect his momentum to continue for a couple of reasons:

Michkov is playing on the first power play line and leads the Flyers with an average of 3:33 PP time per game

He has seven points in as many road games this season

Despite being a rookie, Michkov is clearly one of the more talented offensive players on Philadelphia and I love his value here.

Buchnevich to record a point (-130): Lastly, I’m looking for a way to fade the Buffalo Sabres and I like this number for one of the St. Louis Blues’ top wingers.

The Blues are one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL, scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game, but there’s reason to be concerned with the Sabres’ defence tonight.

Buffalo turns to Devon Levi, who has struggled mightily this season.

Levi has a 4.10 GAA and .866 SV%

He has stopped the fifth-fewest goals above expected (-5.7), per Money Puck

The 22-year-old goalie allowed 10 goals across his last two starts and followed that up by letting in two goals on four shots in a relief appearance against Montreal on Monday.

There’s nothing to show me that Levi is going to turn things around anytime soon, and I’m expecting Buchnevich to take advantage.

NHL picks made at 12:45 p.m. on 11/14/2024.

NHL prop picks Nov. 14: Back Kaprizov, Michkov and Buchnevich on Thursday

Thursday’s NHL schedule has 10 games, which means there will be plenty of options for prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Kirill Kaprizov is taking the league by storm and has a good matchup to go off again tonight. Elsewhere, take Matvei Michkov and Pavel Buchnevich to both register a point.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 14 below.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Embed: #100288

Best Bet: Kaprizov to record 2+ points (+100)

Kaprizov has been on fire this season. Here are some notable numbers:

The Minnesota winger has 28 points in 15 games

In the past three games, he has seven points

And tonight, he plays the NHL’s worst defence. Montreal allows the most goals per game (4.13) and has allowed four or more goals in three consecutive outings.

Kaprizov leads Wild forwards in average ice time (22:10) by a wide margin and has contributed to 52.8% of all Minnesota goals this season.

Key stat: He is 9-6 against this line.

Quick pick

Michkov to record a point (-117): The rookie is having a great season. He scored 12 points in his first 14 career games.

Michkov recorded three points in his last two games after going pointless in the previous four.

I expect his momentum to continue for a couple of reasons:

Michkov is playing on the first power play line and leads the Flyers with an average of 3:33 PP time per game

He has seven points in as many road games this season

Despite being a rookie, Michkov is clearly one of the more talented offensive players on Philadelphia and I love his value here.

Buchnevich to record a point (-134): Lastly, I’m looking for a way to fade the Buffalo Sabres and I like this number for one of the St. Louis Blues’ top wingers.

The Blues are one of the worst offensive teams in the NHL, scoring the seventh-fewest goals per game, but there’s reason to be concerned with the Sabres’ defence tonight.

Buffalo turns to Devon Levi, who has struggled mightily this season.

Levi has a 4.10 GAA and .866 SV%

He has stopped the fifth-fewest goals above expected (-5.7), per Money Puck

The 22-year-old goalie allowed 10 goals across his last two starts and followed that up by letting in two goals on four shots in a relief appearance against Montreal on Monday.

There’s nothing to show me that Levi is going to turn things around anytime soon, and I’m expecting Buchnevich to take advantage.

NHL picks made at 10:28 a.m. on 11/14/2024.

Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson picks and predictions: Back Paul to win boxing match by KO/TKO

Jake Paul and Mike Tyson finally meet in the boxing ring this Friday.

The pre-fight narrative: Paul takes on his most decorated opponent yet but I expect his knockout streak to continue against Tyson, who’s far removed from his prime. I’m also eyeing the under in what I think will be a shorter bout.

Check out my Paul vs. Tyson predictions for the Nov. 15 fight in Arlington, Texas.

Paul vs. Tyson predictions

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Paul vs. Tyson picks	Betting odds
Paul by KO/TKO	+120
Under 5.5 rounds	-110

Boxing odds as of 10:30 p.m. ET on 11/12/2024.

Check out the latest odds for the Jake Paul fight.

Best bet: Paul by KO/TKO (+120)

I know ‘Iron Mike’ is a legend but if he loses on Friday, I think it will be before the final bell.

There are simply too many red flags to ignore.

Tyson is 58 years old
This is his first sanctioned bout since 2005
The first fight was cancelled because Tyson had a medical emergency

Paul, 27, has three straight TKO/KO victories and I have to assume he’s only getting better as he enters his prime.

Tyson, on the other hand, is obviously far removed from the fighter he once was when he became the youngest heavyweight champ at 20 years old.

I won’t overthink this one too much so I’m putting my money on the younger Paul, who’s the only active boxer in this fight.

Quick pick

Under 5.5 rounds (-110): I couldn’t forget about the Tyson fans. There’s one way to back him, in my opinion, and that’s the under.

I don’t think it’s crazy to say that Tyson will be most dangerous in the early rounds. He can still pack a punch but his cardio will let him down as the rounds advance.

If Paul were to fall victim to a big shot, it would surely be early in the fight. Tyson could prove to be a much more technical and powerful boxer than his opponent.

After all, he’s a former champ and is the biggest competitor Paul has faced.

Both fighters will be similar in size, though Paul is taller. But everyone knows Tyson is the most devastating puncher of all time if he can get inside the pocket.

This bet covers an early win on both sides, which is ultimately why I like it.

Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson picks and predictions: Back Paul to win boxing match by KO/TKO

Jake Paul and Mike Tyson finally meet in the boxing ring this Friday.

The pre-fight narrative: Paul takes on his most decorated opponent yet but I expect his knockout streak to continue against Tyson, who’s far removed from his prime. I’m also eyeing the under in what I think will be a shorter bout.

Check out my Paul vs. Tyson predictions for the Nov. 15 fight in Arlington, Texas.

Paul vs. Tyson predictions

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Paul vs. Tyson picks	Betting odds
Paul by KO/TKO	+123
Under 5.5 rounds	-110

Boxing odds as of 3:10 p.m. ET on 11/12/2024.

Check out the latest odds for the Jake Paul fight.

Best bet: Paul by KO/TKO (+123)

I know ‘Iron Mike’ is a legend but if he loses on Friday, I think it will be before the final bell.

There are simply too many red flags to ignore.

Tyson is 58 years old
This is his first sanctioned bout since 2005
The first fight was cancelled because Tyson had a medical emergency

Paul, 27, has three straight TKO/KO victories and I have to assume he’s only getting better as he enters his prime.

Tyson, on the other hand, is obviously far removed from the fighter he once was when he became the youngest heavyweight champ at 20 years old.

I won’t overthink this one too much so I’m putting my money on the younger Paul, who’s the only active boxer in this fight.

Quick pick

Under 5.5 rounds (-110): I couldn’t forget about the Tyson fans. There’s one way to back him, in my opinion, and that’s the under.

I don’t think it’s crazy to say that Tyson will be most dangerous in the early rounds. He can still pack a punch but his cardio will let him down as the rounds advance.

If Paul were to fall victim to a big shot, it would surely be early in the fight. Tyson could prove to be a much more technical and powerful boxer than his opponent.

After all, he’s a former champ and is the biggest competitor Paul has faced.

Both fighters will be similar in size, though Paul is taller. But everyone knows Tyson is the most devastating puncher of all time if he can get inside the pocket.

This bet covers an early win on both sides, which is ultimately why I like it.

UFC 309 odds and fight card: Jon Jones makes first title defence against Stipe Miocic

Jon Jones makes his return after a long layoff to face Stipe Miocic in the octagon.

The latest: The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden with a long-awaited main event between Jones and Miocic. Before that, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler run it back in what should be an exciting co-main event.

Check out our full UFC 309 odds and the fight card for the Nov. 16 event in New York.

UFC 309 odds

Check out the latest UFC odds. Click linked odds to add selection to betslip.

Fighter	Odds	Weight class	Odds	Fighter
Jon Jones (C)	-670	Heavyweight	+480	Stipe Miocic (8)
Charles Oliveira (2)	-265	Lightweight	+205	Michael Chandler (7)
Bo Nickal (NR)	-1,115	Middleweight	+650	Paul Craig (NR)
Mauricio Ruffy	-910	Lightweight	+600	James Llontop
Karine Silva	-295	Women’s flyweight	+225	Viviane Araujo

UFC odds as of 9:37 p.m. ET on 11/12/2024.

Go to full UFC betting markets.

Jones vs. Miocic main event

Jones (-670) vs. Miocic (+480)

The greatest to ever do it is back in action and there’s no better venue than MSG for his return.

The long layoff would usually be concerning but his opponent Miocic has been away from the cage for a much longer time (three and a half years).

Most fans are wondering why Miocic deserves this opportunity and the answer is … he doesn’t.

At 42 years old, it is understandable why Miocic is such a large underdog as he’s only fought twice since 2020.

Jones’ most recent bout against Cyril Gane came after a three-year break and Jones looked as good as ever, submitting Gane in the first round to claim heavyweight gold.

This could very well be the champs’ last fight before retirement but he should have no issues defeating Miocic on November 16.

UFC 309 Oliveira vs. Chandler odds

Oliveira (-265) vs. Chandler (+205)

When these two fought for the first time, they put on a show.

Oliveira dropped Chandler with a left hook in the second round and finished him off with ground and pound. It was a back-and-forth bout that the Brazillian won and walked away with a performance bonus.

Since then, Chandler has been waiting for a Conor McGregor fight that is seemingly off the table while Oliveira has been active, coming off a loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 in April.

Because of the first result and his activity, ‘Do Bronx’ is the rightful favourite — but his counterpart is explosive. Chandler had Oliveira hurt badly before losing and has the tools to win the rematch if bettors like his price as an underdog.

Nickal vs. Craig odds

Nickal (-1,150) vs. Craig (+650)

Bo Nickal is one of the most exciting newcomers to the UFC roster. He’s been a huge favourite in every fight so far and nothing changes for this one.

The former NCAA Division I national champion wrestler has made quick work of all three UFC opponents to this point, needing less than two rounds for each win.

Craig is a high-level BJJ blackbelt with 14 career wins by submission. He’s pulled off huge upsets before and could catch Nickal but his college wrestling pedigree should be enough to keep himself out of danger.

Ruffy vs. Llontop odds

Ruffy (-910) vs. Llontop (+600)

The Brazillian fighter, Ruffy, has been compared to Conor McGregor by fans and while the hype is certainly there, so is the talent.

He has 10 professional MMA wins, all inside the distance, and his fighting style is worth watching.

https://twitter.com/MMA_CASUALS_/status/1786906808021385608

On the other side, Llontop is 0-2 in the UFC but could certainly make a name for himself if he were to upset Ruffy with the MMA world watching.

Best NHL prop picks Nov. 12: Bet on McDavid and Pastrnak to put on a show tonight

Two superstars are the targets of my NHL prop picks for Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Connor McDavid is healthy again and I think the Edmonton Oilers are in for an offensive explosion against the New York Islanders. I also love the value on David Pastrnak scoring multiple points tonight.

Find my NHL prop picks for Nov. 12 below.

NHL prop picks

Go to full NHL betting markets.

Best Bet: McDavid to record a power play point (+125)

In McDavid’s second game back from injury, the Oilers destroyed Vancouver Canucks 7-3.

Edmonton’s captain scored a powerplay goal and added two assists in a three-point performance.

Tonight, the Oilers get the Islanders and I like the matchup.

New York allows the 12th-most goals per game (3.07)

It has the league’s third-worst penalty kill (65.6%).

Edmonton owns a 15.8% PP conversion rate this season but I expect it to start creeping up toward last year’s number (26.3%).

Key stat: Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, McDavid has 242 PP points in 370 games.

Quick pick

Pastrnak to record 2+ points (+165): This value doesn’t come around often with Pastrnak but he’s in a bit of a cold spell.

The Bruins’ top point producer has 14 points in 16 games with just four multi-point performances on the season.

He’s well off the 110-point pace he’s achieved over the last two seasons but this is a good spot and a nice price to back him at.

The St. Louis Blues rank in the bottom 10 in multiple defensive stats:

3.47 goals against per game (27th)

30.3 shots against per game (24th)

75.6% penalty kill (23rd)

St. Louis lost back-to-back games and is fresh off an 8-1 thrashing by the Washington Capitals. If there’s any time to get behind Pastrnak, it’s now.

NHL prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 11/12/2024.