Jordan Horrobin

In what is already their sixth matchup of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday at Camden Yards.

The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still looking for his first big blast, but he remains a value play on his bases prop. I also love the price on Adley Rutschman to go over 1.5 bases in today’s matinee.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for April 13.

Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles

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Best Bet: Rutschman over 1.5 bases (+148)

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I’m trying to make sense of this price, and I can’t.

Rutschman’s numbers against Toronto starter Jose Berrios are too good for me to pass this up.

• 15-for-25 (.600)
• 4 home runs
• 2 doubles
• .846 xSLG

On Opening Day, Rutschman was one of the players who gave Berrios the most trouble. The star catcher went 2-for-3 against Berrios with a first-inning HR.

Rutschman walks a lot, which is a risk for this prop. But he also rarely strikes out, and his contact quality is elite.

According to Baseball Savant, Rutschman ranks in the 86th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, whiff rate, chase rate and squared-up rate.

Key stat: Rutschman, who homered on Saturday against the Blue Jays, is riding a seven-game hitting streak.

Quick pick

Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+110): Despite still sitting at zero HRs on the season, Guerrero has cashed this bases prop in eight of 15 games.

Is today the day he really gets ahold of one?

Maybe, but either way, I’ll gladly back him at this price against a left-handed pitcher — especially since it’s one he’s done damage against in the past.

• Since 2023, Guerrero has a 142 wRC+ against LHPs (20th in MLB in that span).

• Against Baltimore southpaw Cade Povich, Guerrero is 4-for-5 with two doubles and a home run.

Povich got absolutely toasted his first two turns through the rotation: 10.1 innings, 17 hits, seven runs.

This should be a smash spot for Vlad Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 04/13/2025.

Freddy Peralta headlines my MLB prop bets for Sunday, which include additional plus-money plays on Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Nimmo.

The pregame narrative: Nimmo is putting up modern-day slugger numbers right now, with a low batting average but plenty of power potential. I like him to go over 1.5 bases, while I think Peralta and Hendricks are strong candidates to clear their strikeout totals.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 13.

MLB prop bets

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Best Bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+110)

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Nimmo’s offensive philosophy so far in 2025 is “quality over quantity.” That can play for a bases prop.

The New York Mets’ cleanup hitter is only 11-for-53 (.208), but that includes four home runs and a pair of doubles. So his .472 SLG still looks pretty solid.

And the batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant have held up, indicating that Nimmo is generating the type of contact worth of extra-base knocks:

• 90th percentile xSLG (.601)
• 92nd percentile barrel rate (18.6%)
• 94th percentile hard-hit rate (58.1%)

In 10 MLB seasons, Nimmo has never been an all-star. He’s not a flashy pick, but he’s off to a strong start that appears to be an underperformance relative to his underlying numbers.

And given that only has four walks so far in 14 games, I like my chances that he’ll give himself plenty of chances to put the ball in play and see what happens.

Nimmo has homered in the first two games of the Mets’ current series against the Athletics in Sacramento. Ideally he cashes this prop with one swing on Sunday.

Key stat: Nimmo is 4-for-7 with a home run and a double against A’s starter Luis Severino.

Best MLB picks

Hendricks over 3.5 strikeouts (+130): Hendricks is a low-velocity pitcher who doesn’t rely on strikeouts to find success. But he’s worth a look when the strikeout number is this low and comes with a plus-money price.

Hendricks’ fastball velocity (86.4 mph) is the lowest in the majors, per Baseball Savant. But his changeup still generates whiffs at a high clip, and that’ll be the key pitch for him on Sunday.

• The Houston Astros, who Hendricks will face, have the sixth-highest whiff rate in the majors against changeups (36.5%).

• Houston also has the 12th-highest K% in MLB so far (23.8%).

Hendricks finished with exactly four Ks in both of his previous starts this season. He’s only faced two of the Astros’ starting hitters, and hopefully that lack of familiarity will work in his favour, too.

Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (+114): The Arizona Diamondbacks have the third-lowest K rate against right-handers (18.6%), which is certainly the biggest concern for this pick.

But Peralta has been nasty so far, with an 89th-percentile whiff rate (34.8%), and I’m trusting his stuff in spite of a subpar matchup.

Keep in mind that Peralta has a perfectly respectable K rate against this D-backs roster (26.2% in 61 plate appearances) and has cashed this bet in all three outings this season.

Dating back to last year, Peralta is averaging 6.3 Ks per start in 35 starts.

MLB prop picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 04/13/2025.

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I’ve got a trio of bases props in my crosshairs for Friday’s MLB action.

The pregame narrative: Spencer Torkelson and Manny Machado are both off to great starts that I expect to continue tonight. And though it hasn’t been as smooth of a ride for Spencer Steer, his matchup is a compelling one to target, too.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 11.

MLB prop bets

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Best Bet: Torkelson over 1.5 bases (+140)

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Torkelson is swinging a very hot bat, and I think he can take advantage of tonight’s matchup against an inexperienced pitcher.

Twins starter David Festa, who tossed 64.1 innings as a rookie last season, is back in the majors to make his 2025 debut on Friday. He began the year with Triple-A St. Paul, allowing 13 hits and six runs in 8.1 IP.

Minnesota’s Target Field might not be the first park you think of as an offensive haven, but it’s a place hitters are known to rake.

According to Baseball Savant, Target Field ranks 8% above average (or greater) in doubles, triples and home runs.

Festa certainly knows the perils of pitching at Target Field. Last season, he allowed an .863 OPS in eight games at home.

Torkelson hasn’t had the pleasure of facing Festa yet, but at this price, I’ll ride with a guy who has a 1.037 OPS so far while posting an 87th-percentile hard-hit rate (55.2%).

Key stat: Torkelson has gone over 1.5 bases in seven of 12 games so far.

Best MLB picks

Steer over 1.5 bases (+128): If you only look at how Steer’s season has gone so far, this pick would be a tough sell.

The designated hitter and corner outfielder is batting 5-for-35 (.143) with three extra-base hits through 10 games. That’s certainly not ideal.

But I’m a big fan of tonight’s matchup given that it comes with a platoon advantage, in an offence-friendly environment, against a pitcher Steer has crushed in the past.

• The right-hitting Steer has a .455 SLG in his career against left-handed pitching.

• Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark is 6% above average in run production and 27% above average in home run rate, per Baseball Savant.

• Against Pirates lefty Bailey Falter, Steer is 7-for-13 with two doubles and a home run. Also, Falter has allowed 14 hits in 10.0 innings to start the year.

Machado over 1.5 bases (+112): I’m loving this price for Machado, who has a clean .340/.400/.500 slash line through 13 games.

Machado has cashed this bet in three straight, as well as in eight of 13 games on the year.

He has also seen plenty of at-bats against Rockies starter German Marquez and should be a threat to do serious damage from the No. 3 spot in the Padres’ order.

Against Marquez, Machado is 12-for-29 with a double and a home run.

MLB prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/11/2025.

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The Toronto Blue Jays embark on the third leg of their road trip on Friday night with a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles.

The pregame narrative: Baltimore sits in last place in the AL East, while Toronto is tied for first. Who had that on their 2025 bingo card? For tonight’s game, I’m interested in plus-money plays on Gunnar Henderson and Bo Bichette.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for April 11.

Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles

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Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 bases (+112)

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Henderson began the year on the injured list with a muscle strain. His results so far — 4-for-25 (.160), one double and 10 strikeouts — suggest he’s still in spring training mode.

But look closer, and you’ll see that Henderson isn’t too far from raking again.

Last year’s fourth-place AL MVP finisher has been tattooing the ball … he’s just not finding holes.

Of his 15 balls in play so far, 10 have registered an exit velocity greater than 100 mph, per Baseball Savant. And sure, not all of them were hit on a line, but he’s had his share of those as well.

Hitting the ball hard is the first step. And based on what we saw from the 24-year-old last season, it tells me that strong results loom just around the corner.

Last year, Henderson slugged .529 and went over 1.5 bases in 79 of 159 games. This isn’t a price you would’ve seen for him very often.

So I’ll buy in now, at a time when he’s facing a pitcher he’s at least done a bit of damage against.

Key stat: Henderson is 2-for-5 with a double against Toronto’s Bowden Francis.

Prop predictions

Bichette over 0.5 runs (+118): A power outage from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander has dampened Bichette’s scoring numbers this month, but I don’t expect that to go on forever.

Despite reaching base 12 times in April, Bichette has only scored once. He also has seven RBI this month. That’s a very atypical run-to-RBI ratio for a leadoff man.

Bichette ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG and K%. He’s doing his job, and that’s the most important thing.

On March 30, Bichette walked and scored in the first inning against Baltimore’s Tomoyuki Sugano, who he’ll see again tonight.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles picks made at 9:48 a.m. ET on 04/11/2025.