Jordan Horrobin

Kyle Tucker is on fire, and his bases prop is my favourite MLB prop bet on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: I’ll back Tucker against pretty much any pitcher right now, but I’m especially emboldened when he’s in a matchup with some favourable history. Elsewhere, I have picks on picks on Riley Greene and Freddie Freeman.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 14.

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Best Bet: Tucker over 0.5 bases (-167)

Padres starter Dylan Cease has great numbers against most of the Cubs’ lineup. But Tucker, a first-year Cubbie, is the exception.

All told, Cease has held the Cubs’ active lineup to 8-for-53 (.151) batting with a .245 SLG and 22 strikeouts (35.5 K%). That only makes Tucker’s success against Cease stand out more:

• 5-for-11 (.455)
• 2 doubles
• 1 walk
• .458 xSLG

Given how poorly the rest of the lineup has fared, I don’t want to touch Tucker’s run or RBI prop tonight. I’d rather stick to something that is totally within his control — even if this has a lot of juice.

And it just so happens that Tucker has been an absolute machine so far, cashing this prop in 13 of 18 games.

According to Baseball Savant, the 28-year-old ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, K rate and chase rate. Not half bad.

With such stellar numbers overall — and a compelling track record against Cease — Tucker looks like a really nice pick at this number.

Key stat: Tucker has gone over 1.5 bases in six of his past seven games.

Best MLB picks

Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+125): Freeman hasn’t played much this year due to an aggravation of an ankle injury. But his contact quality has been elite when he’s been in the box.

• Through six games, Freeman has a .317 xBA and a .716 xSLG.

• In each of the previous seven seasons, Freeman posted an xBA in the 90th percentile or better and an xSLG in the 86th percentile or better. So he’s wielded an elite bat for a while.

Freeman has a rough track record against Colorado’s Anthony Senzatela (2-for-15, one double, two walks), but his overall talent is undeniable. And this bet is about the guys batting in front of Freeman, too.

Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are a collective 12-for-25 (.480) with two home runs, two doubles and two walks.

Traffic on the basepaths is important for this prop, and we should see that tonight at the top of the Dodgers’ order.

Greene under 0.5 runs (-154): Greene started the year hot, but his past seven games have been a disaster:

• 1-for-24 (.042)
• .070 xBA
• 14 strikeouts
• 3 walks

In a lefty-on-lefty matchup against former teammate Tyler Alexander (now a pitcher for the Brewers), I wanted some way to fade Greene. This is a way to do so at a playable price.

Since the start of last season, Greene has a .260 on-base percentage against lefties. Alexander, meanwhile, has allowed a .279 OBP to left-hitting players in his career.

Spencer Torkelson is a serious RBI threat in the Tigers’ cleanup spot, but Greene — who bats third — probably won’t be in a position to score.

MLB prop picks made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 04/14/2025.

For the first time in nearly two weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays are back home at Rogers Centre with the Atlanta Braves in town.

The pregame narrative: Toronto starter Easton Lucas has been strong through two outings, but I’m backing a pair of Braves sluggers — Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson — to deal some damage on Monday night. On the Jays’ side, I think Vladimir Guerrero Jr.‘s bases prop is in the fade zone.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 14.

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Best Bet: Ozuna over 0.5 runs (-118)

I thought about backing Ozuna over 1.5 bases at a slightly better price (-106), but his sky-high walk rate steered me in a different direction.

Ozuna’s league-leading walk rate (24.6%) is unsustainable, but he has demonstrated better plate discipline than we’ve ever seen from him before.

So far this season — and I get that it’s early — Ozuna has a 17.5% chase rate, which ranks in the 96th percentile according to Baseball Savant. His previous season high is 26.0% back in 2021.

All of that is to say, walks are a risk for potentially backing Ozuna’s bases prop. But a free pass wouldn’t be the worst thing for his run prop.

And let’s not forget that he can still really mash the baseball.

• 98th percentile average EV (95.6 mph)
• 86th percentile hard-hit rate (53.1%)

Through 15 games, Ozuna has a .306/.477/.531 slash line. He has scored nine runs so far this month, cashing his run prop in seven of 10 games.

Oh, and he happens to be a particularly elite slugger when facing left-handed pitching, as he will tonight with Lucas on the mound.

Key stat: Since 2023, Ozuna’s 156 wRC+ against LHPs ranks 10th among 128 qualified hitters.

Quick picks

Olson over 0.5 RBI (+145): This pick will hopefully go hand-in-hand with my Ozuna best bet.

Ozuna bats third in the Braves’ order, and Olson is right behind him in the cleanup spot. As a result, Olson has seen a lot of RBI opportunities so far this season.

• Olson’s 23 plate appearances with runners in scoring position is tied for the ninth-most in MLB.

• Despite only posting a .617 OPS in his past nine games, Olson has eight RBI in that span.

A lefty-on-lefty matchup shouldn’t bother Olson too much, as he still owns an .801 OPS in his career against southpaws.

As for Lucas, his very early returns with a platoon “advantage” have been rough: 48 plate appearances, .884 OPS allowed.

Guerrero under 1.5 bases (-130): The power outage is real for Vlad Jr. right now.

I cashed Guerrero over 1.5 bases yesterday, but only because he collected a pair of singles. Guerrero is batting .302 with a .365 SLG so far, which is almost difficult to do.

The $500 million man is still homer-less on the year and only has one extra-base knock in his past nine games.

Atlanta starter Grant Holmes has issued eight walks through two starts, which could be a way for Vladdy to get on without needing to power up.

He’ll break out at some point, but this is a fair price to buy into the fade.

Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 04/14/2025.

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball in a primetime rubber match.

The pregame narrative: Chicago posted a 16-spot last night, further establishing itself as one of the best offences in the early stages of the season. I’m fading a pair of Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani) and looking for Michael Busch to record a hit.

Check out my Cubs vs. Dodgers prop bets for Sunday Night Baseball on April 13.

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Best Bet: Glasnow under 17.5 outs (-130)

Glasnow has had his share of arm injuries in his 10-year career. And then some.

He was at his best for most of the 2024 season with the Dodgers, but suffered an elbow injury in August that held him out the rest of the campaign (including the entire World Series run).

Glasnow is back now, fortunately, but I’m not sold on his ability — or the Dodgers’ willingness — to push deep into games right now.

He completed 5.0 innings (i.e., 15 outs) on 79 pitches in his season debut. After that, Glasnow got roughed up by the Phillies in two-plus innings, allowing five runs on 60 pitches.

Now, he faces one of the hottest offences in the sport. Best of luck.

The Cubs rank No. 2 in the majors in wRC+ (125) while scoring 6.6 runs per game. Individually, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki and Busch all have a 160 wRC+ or better.

Even if my assessment is wrong about Glasnow’s ability to work deep into games right now, the Cubs have the firepower to chase him prematurely.

Thanks to a 16-0 blowout win for Chicago yesterday, L.A. has all of its leverage relievers available. Don’t expect Glasnow to get too comfortable.

Key stat: Opposing starters/bulk relievers have gone under 17.5 outs in seven of the Cubs’ past nine games.

Best MLB picks

Busch over 0.5 hits (-112): Hopefully Busch still has some base knocks in his bat after yesterday’s hit parade.

The corner infielder went 4-for-4 with a home run and two doubles on Saturday, bringing his batting average up to a cool .300 for the year.

Glasnow is typically a tough guy to face, but odds like this for a hitter who’s off to such a nice start are worth it to me.

Busch ranks in the 70th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Ohtani under 0.5 RBI (-154): It’s not like I want to fade Ohtani, I just think this is a very playable price to bet an under for the reigning NL MVP.

Ohtani bats leadoff for the Dodgers, which means he’s typically in a prime spot to score rather than drive someone in.

So far this season, he has 15 runs and five RBI through 16 games. Ohtani has gone under 0.5 RBI in 12 of 16.

The Dodgers should be able to score against Colin Rea, who’s making his 2025 starting debut after posting a 4.29 ERA in 167.2 IP a year ago.

I just expect Ohtani to be crossing the plate — not bringing others around.

Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks made at 3:50 p.m. ET on 04/13/2025.

In what is already their sixth matchup of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday at Camden Yards.

The pregame narrative: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still looking for his first big blast, but he remains a value play on his bases prop. I also love the price on Adley Rutschman to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI in today’s matinee.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Orioles for April 13.

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Best Bet: Rutschman over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-110)

I’m trying to make sense of this price, and I can’t.

Rutschman’s numbers against Toronto starter Jose Berrios are too good for me to pass this up.

• 15-for-25 (.600)
• 4 home runs
• 2 doubles
• 2 walks
• .846 xSLG

On Opening Day, Rutschman was one of the players who gave Berrios the most trouble. The star catcher went 2-for-3 against Berrios with a first-inning HR.

Rutschman walks a lot, which isn’t necessarily the worst thing for this prop because it still gives him a chance to score. He also rarely strikes out, and his contact quality is elite.

According to Baseball Savant, Rutschman ranks in the 86th percentile or better in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, whiff rate, chase rate and squared-up rate.

Key stat: Rutschman, who homered on Saturday against the Blue Jays, is riding a seven-game hitting streak.

Quick pick

Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+100): Despite still sitting at zero HRs on the season, Guerrero has cashed this bases prop in eight of 15 games.

Is today the day he really gets ahold of one?

Maybe, but either way, I’ll gladly back him at this price against a left-handed pitcher — especially since it’s one he’s done damage against in the past.

• Since 2023, Guerrero has a 142 wRC+ against LHPs (20th in MLB in that span).

• Against Baltimore southpaw Cade Povich, Guerrero is 4-for-5 with two doubles and a home run.

Povich got absolutely toasted his first two turns through the rotation: 10.1 innings, 17 hits, seven runs.

This should be a smash spot for Vlad Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/13/2025.

Freddy Peralta headlines my MLB prop bets for Sunday, which include additional plus-money plays on Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Nimmo.

The pregame narrative: Nimmo is putting up modern-day slugger numbers right now, with a low batting average but plenty of power potential. I like him to go over 1.5 bases, while I think Peralta and Hendricks are strong candidates to clear their strikeout totals.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 13.

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Best Bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+110)

Nimmo’s offensive philosophy so far in 2025 is “quality over quantity.” That can play for a bases prop.

The New York Mets’ cleanup hitter is only 11-for-53 (.208), but that includes four home runs and a pair of doubles. So his .472 SLG still looks pretty solid.

And the batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant have held up, indicating that Nimmo is generating the type of contact worth of extra-base knocks:

• 90th percentile xSLG (.601)
• 92nd percentile barrel rate (18.6%)
• 94th percentile hard-hit rate (58.1%)

In 10 MLB seasons, Nimmo has never been an all-star. He’s not a flashy pick, but he’s off to a strong start that appears to be an underperformance relative to his underlying numbers.

And given that only has four walks so far in 14 games, I like my chances that he’ll give himself plenty of chances to put the ball in play and see what happens.

Nimmo has homered in the first two games of the Mets’ current series against the Athletics in Sacramento. Ideally he cashes this prop with one swing on Sunday.

Key stat: Nimmo is 4-for-7 with a home run and a double against A’s starter Luis Severino.

Best MLB picks

Hendricks over 3.5 strikeouts (+130): Hendricks is a low-velocity pitcher who doesn’t rely on strikeouts to find success. But he’s worth a look when the strikeout number is this low and comes with a plus-money price.

Hendricks’ fastball velocity (86.4 mph) is the lowest in the majors, per Baseball Savant. But his changeup still generates whiffs at a high clip, and that’ll be the key pitch for him on Sunday.

• The Houston Astros, who Hendricks will face, have the sixth-highest whiff rate in the majors against changeups (36.5%).

• Houston also has the 12th-highest K% in MLB so far (23.8%).

Hendricks finished with exactly four Ks in both of his previous starts this season. He’s only faced two of the Astros’ starting hitters, and hopefully that lack of familiarity will work in his favour, too.

Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (+100): The Arizona Diamondbacks have the third-lowest K rate against right-handers (18.6%), which is certainly the biggest concern for this pick.

But Peralta has been nasty so far, with an 89th-percentile whiff rate (34.8%), and I’m trusting his stuff in spite of a subpar matchup.

Keep in mind that Peralta has a perfectly respectable K rate against this D-backs roster (26.2% in 61 plate appearances) and has cashed this bet in all three outings this season.

Dating back to last year, Peralta is averaging 6.3 Ks per start in 35 starts.

MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 04/13/2025.