Freddy Peralta headlines my MLB prop bets for Sunday, which include additional plus-money plays on Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Nimmo.
The pregame narrative: Nimmo is putting up modern-day slugger numbers right now, with a low batting average but plenty of power potential. I like him to go over 1.5 bases, while I think Peralta and Hendricks are strong candidates to clear their strikeout totals.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 13.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+110)
Nimmo’s offensive philosophy so far in 2025 is “quality over quantity.” That can play for a bases prop.
The New York Mets’ cleanup hitter is only 11-for-53 (.208), but that includes four home runs and a pair of doubles. So his .472 SLG still looks pretty solid.
And the batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant have held up, indicating that Nimmo is generating the type of contact worth of extra-base knocks:
- 90th percentile xSLG (.601)
- 92nd percentile barrel rate (18.6%)
- 94th percentile hard-hit rate (58.1%)
In 10 MLB seasons, Nimmo has never been an all-star. He’s not a flashy pick, but he’s off to a strong start that appears to be an underperformance relative to his underlying numbers.
And given that only has four walks so far in 14 games, I like my chances that he’ll give himself plenty of chances to put the ball in play and see what happens.
Nimmo has homered in the first two games of the Mets’ current series against the Athletics in Sacramento. Ideally he cashes this prop with one swing on Sunday.
Key stat: Nimmo is 4-for-7 with a home run and a double against A’s starter Luis Severino.
Best MLB picks
Hendricks over 3.5 strikeouts (+130): Hendricks is a low-velocity pitcher who doesn’t rely on strikeouts to find success. But he’s worth a look when the strikeout number is this low and comes with a plus-money price.
Hendricks’ fastball velocity (86.4 mph) is the lowest in the majors, per Baseball Savant. But his changeup still generates whiffs at a high clip, and that’ll be the key pitch for him on Sunday.
- The Houston Astros, who Hendricks will face, have the sixth-highest whiff rate in the majors against changeups (36.5%).
- Houston also has the 12th-highest K% in MLB so far (23.8%).
Hendricks finished with exactly four Ks in both of his previous starts this season. He’s only faced two of the Astros’ starting hitters, and hopefully that lack of familiarity will work in his favour, too.
Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (+114): The Arizona Diamondbacks have the third-lowest K rate against right-handers (18.6%), which is certainly the biggest concern for this pick.
But Peralta has been nasty so far, with an 89th-percentile whiff rate (34.8%), and I’m trusting his stuff in spite of a subpar matchup.
Keep in mind that Peralta has a perfectly respectable K rate against this D-backs roster (26.2% in 61 plate appearances) and has cashed this bet in all three outings this season.
Dating back to last year, Peralta is averaging 6.3 Ks per start in 35 starts.
MLB prop picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 04/13/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.