Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Blue Jays vs. Astros prop picks April 22: Look for Bo Bichette to rake in Houston

After getting shut out last night, the Toronto Blue Jays will strive for better results on Tuesday against the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Ronel Blanco no-hit the Jays last April when he faced them in Houston, but he hasn’t been nearly that fearsome in 2025. I like Bo Bichette to do damage in this matchup, while Houston’s Yainer Diaz is a prime fade candidate.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Astros for April 22.

Blue Jays picks vs. Astros

Best Bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (+100)

I gave Bichette over 1.5 hits (+180) a serious look, but I think the value is solid on this safer play, too.

When Bichette’s bat is hot, he’s one of my favourite players to bet on this prop market. He swings a ton and tends to make contact, which means ample opportunities to accrue bases:

8th-percentile chase rate
16th-percentile walk rate
84th-percentile K rate
87th-percentile whiff rate

Bichette is on a six-game hitting streak, and he owns a .328/.361/.418 slash line since April 5.

The power numbers haven’t been great, but he’s in the 97th percentile in xBA (.338), per Baseball Savant. And his xSLG (.526) far outpaces his actual SLG (.396).

Bichette has cashed this bet in nine of his past 15 games. And now he’ll face Blanco, a struggling starter with 18 hits allowed through just 16.2 innings.

Blanco ranks in the bottom 35th percentile in xERA (4.88), opponent xBA (.264) and barrel rate (10.2%).

Key stat: In their previous head-to-head matchups, Bichette is 2-for-5 against Blanco with a double and a home run (and zero walks).

Quick pick

Diaz under 0.5 hits (+155): It’s only been four starts, but Toronto’s Chris Bassitt is doing his best Cy Young impression. This is a great way to indirectly back the right-hander.

Bassitt, who has a 0.77 ERA and a 12.0 K/9, should keep Diaz off balance.

Diaz is just 9-for-63 (.143) on the season, cashing this bet in 10 of 16 starts.

He comes by the futility honestly, ranking in the 16th percentile for xBA (.206) with a league-worst 42.4% chase rate.

As a cherry on top, Diaz has been particularly unproductive in righty-on-righty matchups. He is 6-for-55 (.109) vs. RHPs so far.

Blue Jays vs. Astros picks made at 2:23 p.m. ET on 04/22/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Astros prop picks April 22: Look for Bo Bichette to rake in Houston

After getting shut out last night, the Toronto Blue Jays will strive for better results on Tuesday against the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Ronel Blanco no-hit the Jays last April when he faced them in Houston, but he hasn’t been nearly that fearsome in 2025. I like Bo Bichette to do damage in this matchup, while Houston’s Yainer Diaz is a prime fade candidate.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Astros for April 22.

Blue Jays picks vs. Astros

Best Bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (+102)

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I gave Bichette over 1.5 hits (+180) a serious look, but I think the value is solid on this safer play, too.

When Bichette’s bat is hot, he’s one of my favourite players to bet on this prop market. He swings a ton and tends to make contact, which means ample opportunities to accrue bases:

8th-percentile chase rate
16th-percentile walk rate
84th-percentile K rate
87th-percentile whiff rate

Bichette is on a six-game hitting streak, and he owns a .328/.361/.418 slash line since April 5.

The power numbers haven’t been great, but he’s in the 97th percentile in xBA (.338), per Baseball Savant. And his xSLG (.526) far outpaces his actual SLG (.396).

Bichette has cashed this bet in nine of his past 15 games. And now he’ll face Blanco, a struggling starter with 18 hits allowed through just 16.2 innings.

Blanco ranks in the bottom 35th percentile in xERA (4.88), opponent xBA (.264) and barrel rate (10.2%).

Key stat: In their previous head-to-head matchups, Bichette is 2-for-5 against Blanco with a double and a home run (and zero walks).

Quick pick

Diaz under 0.5 hits (+163): It’s only been four starts, but Toronto’s Chris Bassitt is doing his best Cy Young impression. This is a great way to indirectly back the right-hander.

Bassitt, who has a 0.77 ERA and a 12.0 K/9, should keep Diaz off balance.

Diaz is just 9-for-63 (.143) on the season, cashing this bet in 10 of 16 starts.

He comes by the futility honestly, ranking in the 16th percentile for xBA (.206) with a league-worst 42.4% chase rate.

As a cherry on top, Diaz has been particularly unproductive in righty-on-righty matchups. He is 6-for-55 (.109) vs. RHPs so far.

Blue Jays vs. Astros picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 04/22/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers SGP predictions Game 2: Back Luka Doncic, Naz Reid in +350 SGP

The Los Angeles Lakers aim to even their first-round playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night at Crypto.com Arena.

The pregame narrative: L.A.’s first playoff game in the Luka Doncic era didn’t go according to plan, putting the pressure on the home side tonight. I’m backing Doncic and Naz Reid in this +350 SGP, along with an alt spread for the T-Wolves.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers first-round SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 22.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +9.5 | Reid 2+ threes | Doncic 25+ points (+350)

Timberwolves +9.5 (-223): The Lakers can hardly afford to go down 2-0. But even if they bounce back to secure a win tonight, I wouldn’t expect a blowout.

Minnesota is 25-17 on the road this season, posting a 10-5-0 ATS mark as road underdogs, per Team Rankings. I’ve added five points to the standard spread, which should be plenty of cushion.

The T-Wolves are 3-2 SU against the Lakers this year and have covered a +10.5 spread in each game.

L.A. lost by 22 in the series opener despite decent 3-point shooting (36.6%) and a +6 margin in free throw attempts. I can’t see the Lakers turning things around to the point where they get a blowout win of their own.

NBA SGP legs

Reid 2+ threes (-175): Do I think Reid will go 6-for-9 from 3-point land again tonight? No, but canning a couple of 3s is a fair ask.

Since the start of last year, Reid has 2+ threes in 8 of 9 matchups vs. L.A.

In the 2024-25 regular season, Reid averaged 2.2 made 3s on a career-high 5.8 attempts.

L.A. isn’t putting much respect on Reid’s game. In the series opener, eight of Reid’s nine 3-point attempts were deemed “wide open,” which means at least six feet of separation from the closest defender.

Maybe the Lakers will close out a bit better in Game 2, but they’ll have to pick their poison. The Timberwolves have lots of capable shooters, which led them to the fourth-highest 3PT% this year (37.7).

I expect Reid to see enough open looks to cash this bet.

Doncic over 3.5 threes (-106): The Lakers need to be better tonight in a lot of ways, but Doncic’s offensive effort isn’t one of them.

In his first playoff game wearing purple and gold, Doncic scored 37 points while shooting 5-for-10 from deep.

Dating back to the start of March, Doncic has four-plus 3s in 16 of 22 games. He’s averaging 4.2 triples in that span.

Doncic also has four or more 3s in nine of his past 13 playoff games (dating back to last season).

Whatever the Lakers do on Tuesday, expect Doncic to remain a prominent figure on the offensive end.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions made at 12:18 p.m. ET 04/22/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 22: Fade Bane, back DiVincenzo from 3-point range

There are three NBA playoff games tonight, and I’ve got a prop bet from each of them.

The pregame narrative: In the nightcap, I like Donte DiVincenzo to cash a plus-money 3s prop against the Los Angeles Lakers. Earlier on, I’m fading Desmond Bane and looking for Pascal Siakam to fill the net.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 22.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-108)

The Pacers have a balanced scoring attack, but Siakam is still the No. 1 option. And with that in mind, this is a perfectly attainable number for him to hit.

The ex-Raptor led the Pacers in points per game (20.2) during the regular season and had a team-high 25 points in Game 1 against the Bucks.

It was a tidy shooting effort against Milwaukee, as Siakam shot 10-for-15 from the floor (3-for-5 from 3-point range). That’s nothing new.

In five matchups against Milwaukee this season, Siakam is averaging 24.2 PPG on 57.3% shooting.

He has 20+ points in 5 of 5 games — and 25+ points in 4 of 5.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Bucks allow the highest rate of long mid-range shots in the NBA (9.5%).

That’s a stylistic fit for Siakam, who ranks in the 91st percentile in long mid-range shot attempts (13.0%).

Key stat: In the past 15 days, Milwaukee has allowed the sixth-most PPG to opposing power forwards, according to Betting Pros.

Best NBA picks

Bane under 2.5 threes (-110): After getting run out of the building in Game 1 against the top-seeded Thunder, the Grizzlies desperately need a spark on offence.

I just don’t think Bane will be the one to provide it.

During the regular season, OKC allowed the lowest opponent 3-point percentage (34.2%). And the Thunder have largely had the clamps on Bane.

In five matchups this season against OKC, Bane is shooting 27.3% from deep. He’s just 3-for-18 beyond the arc in the past three meetings.

Overall, Bane has gone under 2.5 threes in 43 of 70 games. I don’t expect him to buck that trend in this matchup.

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (+105): The Timberwolves seemingly couldn’t miss from 3-point range in Game 1 against the Lakers. Well, except for DiVincenzo.

The shooting guard went 1-for-5 from deep, while the rest of his team shot 20-for-37. Sigh.

But if you watched the game, you should’ve come away encouraged by the quality of looks DiVincenzo saw.

According to NBA.com, all five of his attempted 3s were either “open” (4-to-6 feet from the closest defender) or “wide open” (6+ feet).

If that keeps up, the shots should start to fall.

After missing several weeks with a toe injury, DiVincenzo finished the regular season shooting 44.7% from 3-point range in his final 22 games. He cashed this bet 16 times in that span.

NBA prop picks made at 10:28 a.m. ET on 04/22/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 22: Fade Bane, back DiVincenzo from 3-point range

There are three NBA playoff games tonight, and I’ve got a prop bet from each of them.

The pregame narrative: In the nightcap, I like Donte DiVincenzo to cash a plus-money 3s prop against the Los Angeles Lakers. Earlier on, I’m fading Desmond Bane and looking for Pascal Siakam to fill the net.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 22.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Siakam over 20.5 points (-113)

Embed: #112763

The Pacers have a balanced scoring attack, but Siakam is still the No. 1 option. And with that in mind, this is a perfectly attainable number for him to hit.

The ex-Raptor led the Pacers in points per game (20.2) during the regular season and had a team-high 25 points in Game 1 against the Bucks.

It was a tidy shooting effort against Milwaukee, as Siakam shot 10-for-15 from the floor (3-for-5 from 3-point range). That’s nothing new.

In five matchups against Milwaukee this season, Siakam is averaging 24.2 PPG on 57.3% shooting.

He has 20+ points in 5 of 5 games — and 25+ points in 4 of 5.

According to Cleaning The Glass, the Bucks allow the highest rate of long mid-range shots in the NBA (9.5%).

That’s a stylistic fit for Siakam, who ranks in the 91st percentile in long mid-range shot attempts (13.0%).

Key stat: In the past 15 days, Milwaukee has allowed the sixth-most PPG to opposing power forwards, according to Betting Pros.

Best NBA picks

Bane under 2.5 threes (-104): After getting run out of the building in Game 1 against the top-seeded Thunder, the Grizzlies desperately need a spark on offence.

I just don’t think Bane will be the one to provide it.

During the regular season, OKC allowed the lowest opponent 3-point percentage (34.2%). And the Thunder have largely had the clamps on Bane.

In five matchups this season against OKC, Bane is shooting 27.3% from deep. He’s just 3-for-18 beyond the arc in the past three meetings.

Overall, Bane has gone under 2.5 threes in 43 of 70 games. I don’t expect him to buck that trend in this matchup.

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (+120): The Timberwolves seemingly couldn’t miss from 3-point range in Game 1 against the Lakers. Well, except for DiVincenzo.

The shooting guard went 1-for-5 from deep, while the rest of his team shot 20-for-37. Sigh.

But if you watched the game, you should’ve come away encouraged by the quality of looks DiVincenzo saw.

According to NBA.com, all five of his attempted 3s were either “open” (4-to-6 feet from the closest defender) or “wide open” (6+ feet).

If that keeps up, the shots should start to fall.

After missing several weeks with a toe injury, DiVincenzo finished the regular season shooting 44.7% from 3-point range in his final 22 games. He cashed this bet 16 times in that span.

NBA prop picks made at 9:28 a.m. ET on 04/22/2025.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1 prop picks April 20: Herro, Jerome should fill the net in series opener

The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers host the Miami Heat on Sunday night in Game 1 of their opening-round Eastern Conference playoff series.

The pregame narrative: Ty Jerome is a bit of an unsung hero for the Cavaliers, and I think his points prop is in bargain territory. On the other side, Tyler Herro is a reliable, high-volume shooter from 3-point range that should can a few triples tonight.

Check out my Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks for April 20.

Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks

Best Bet: Herro over 2.5 threes (-118)

There are three reasons why I think this is a great pick for Game 1 of tonight’s series between Miami and Cleveland:

1. Herro shot 37.5% from 3-point range on 8.7 attempts this year. That means he was routinely putting himself in position to cash this bet.

2. He’s been torching the Cavaliers in recent matchups. Herro has 3+ threes in five straight games against Cleveland. In two meetings this season, he shot 9-for-19 from deep.

3. Herro came up clutch in the play-in tournament. In a pair of must-win games, he dropped 30+ points twice and shot 8-for-17 from deep.

Cleveland posted a top-10 defensive rating this season, but the more fearsome component of its defence is the interior tandem of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

The Cavaliers ranked 13th in the NBA in 3-point percentage, attempts and makes this season. So not a plus matchup, per se, but not a terrible one, either.

I love where Herro’s 3-point volume has been all season, and his recent form combined with success against the Cavs makes this worth a look.

Key stat: Including the play-in games, Herro has cashed this bet in 51 of 79 games (64.6%).

Quick pick

Jerome over 8.5 points (-130): Through his first five NBA seasons, Jerome averaged just 7.0 PPG and bounced between four organizations.

It seems he’s found a home in Cleveland, though, where he blossomed into a remarkably productive bench option this season.

Jerome played 70 games (three starts) and averaged 12.5 PPG on 51.6/43.9/87.2 shooting splits.

He hit the 10-point milestone in 43 of 70 games (61.4%) — including all three against the Heat. And he only shot 4-for-15 from deep in the Miami matchups, so it’s not like he just happened to get hot beyond the arc.

Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks made at 4:21 p.m. ET 04/20/2025.

Padres vs. Astros Sunday Night Baseball SGP predictions: Look for Machado, Altuve to generate offence

The Houston Astros look to complete a home sweep of the San Diego Padres on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: San Diego (15-6) has otherwise gotten off to a superb start, and Manny Machado is one of the key drivers on offence. I’m backing Machado and Houston’s Jose Altuve in his +310 ticket.

Check out my Padres vs. Astros SGP for Sunday Night Baseball on April 20.

Padres vs. Astros prop bets

SGP: Over 6.5 runs | Machado over 1.5 bases | Altuve over 0.5 hits (+310)

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Over 6.5 runs (-165): Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease are a couple of big-name pitchers who know how to quiet bats, but neither one is in a great spot right now.

For Valdez (1-2, 4.91 ERA), he’s flip-flopped between flashes of brilliance and moments of terror. The result is a bunch of batted-ball metrics that are below league average:

13th-percentile hard-hit rate (50.0%)
28th-percentile xBA (.271)
35th-percentile barrel rate (10.0%)
42nd-percentile whiff rate (24.4%)

The Padres’ active lineup has a .414 SLG against Valdez in 58 at-bats, which shouldn’t help his cause tonight.

As for Cease, this over has cashed in all four of his starts — and he’s part of the problem. He has a 6.64 ERA while allowing 31 baserunners in 20.1 innings.

MLB SGP legs

Machado over 1.5 bases (+106): The Padres have the sixth-best wRC+ in the past two weeks (120), and Machado has been doing his part.

In that span, the veteran third baseman has a .909 OPS with six doubles and two home runs.

He is 8-3 against this prop since April 7 and 13-8 against it overall.

In his lone matchup against Valdez last season, Machado belted a sixth-inning homer as part of a 2-for-4 day.

Valdez is coming off a four-inning start in which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits, so hopefully Machado can go to work against the reeling southpaw.

Altuve over 0.5 hits (-186): Cease’s recent struggles are why I like the over tonight, but a lot of the Astros’ lineup hasn’t found much success against him.

Altuve is an exception.

The leadoff man is 5-for-15 with two homers and two walks against Cease.

Though his power numbers are lagging so far this season, Altuve is still collecting hits at a solid clip. He’s batting .305 through 20 games and has at least one hit in 15 of those.

Padres vs. Astros predictions made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 04/20/2025.

Warriors vs. Rockets Game 1 SGP predictions: Fade Jimmy Butler, ride with Golden State to cover

The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets begin their first-round playoff series in Sunday’s NBA playoff nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is expected to win the series, and I’m backing the road squad to cover an alt underdog spread in this game. My +275 SGP also features picks on Jimmy Butler and Alperen Sengun.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets playoff SGP predictions for Game 1 on April 20.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

Parlay: Warriors +6.5 | Butler under 5.5 assists | Sengun 8+ rebounds (+275)

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Warriors +6.5 (-275): The Warriors are -177 favourites to win this series despite being road underdogs in Game 1. Even if they start with a loss, I like this margin for them.

Golden State is 10-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, per Team Rankings. And the team is 5-0-1 ATS in its past six road games overall.

Houston, on the other hand, is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven games as a home team.

It’s difficult to quantify the advantage Golden State might wield based on playoff experience. But I think there’s something to that.

Also, the Warriors were a top-10 squad in net rating this season (+3.2), trailing the Rockets (+4.6) by a modest margin.

NBA SGP legs

Butler under 5.5 assists (-109): It’s not that I think Butler will have a down game. I just expect he’ll be relied upon as a scorer far more than a passer.

Look at how the Warriors’ past two games went. Butler attempted 20 shots apiece in those matchups and hit the 30-point mark both times.

Those were meaningful games against the Clippers (to try to avoid the play-in tournament) and Grizzlies (to clinch the No. 7 seed). With Jonathan Kuminga seemingly in the doghouse, it’s tough to find reliable scoring support behind Butler and Curry.

Butler went under 5.5 assists in both matchups vs. Houston this season. The Rockets allowed the second-fewest assists per game.

Sengun 8+ rebounds (-420): Golden State doesn’t have a ton of size, and that should help Sengun make his mark on Sunday night.

The 6-foot-11 centre averaged 10.3 rebounds per game this season.

He grabbed 8+ rebounds in 62 of 76 games.

Sengun went 4-0 against this prop when facing the Warriors.

During the regular season, Golden State allowed the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.38).

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 1:28 p.m. ET 04/20/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 20: Fade Shohei Ohtani, Christian Walker at the plate

The Los Angeles Dodgers face the Texas Rangers on Sunday afternoon, and that’s where two of my three MLB prop bets come from.

The pregame narrative: I like Tyler Glasnow to go over his strikeout total against a group he’s carved up in the past, while fading Shohei Ohtani‘s bases prop comes with an interesting price. Later on, fade Christian Walker against the San Diego Padres.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 20.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Walker under 0.5 hits (+118)

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The Houston Astros might’ve swung and missed again on a veteran free agent first baseman.

After two miserable years with Jose Abreu, the Astros went back into free agency and plucked former Diamondback Christian Walker. It’s still early, but the returns so far haven’t been remotely close to expectations.

In his first 20 games with Houston, Walker has a .164/.265/.274 slash line.

He ranks in the 25th percentile in xBA (.222) and in the 18th percentile in K rate (28.9%), per Baseball Savant.

Walker has twice as many strikeouts (24) as he has hits (12).

Although he has a hit and a run in both games of this series against the San Diego Padres, I expect that success to be short-lived.

Tonight, Walker and the Astros face Padres starter Dylan Cease in what I hope remains a one-sided matchup. Walker is 0-for-9 with three strikeouts against Cease.

It hasn’t been a banner start to the year for Cease, but his .286 opponent batting average is well above his xBA (.250). So hopefully he’ll start moving in the right direction.

Key stat: Walker is hitless in seven of his past 11 games, batting 5-for-37 (.135) in that span.

Best MLB picks

Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts (-114): The high-leverage arms in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen have been used quite a bit recently, which could mean a longer rope for Glasnow on Sunday.

If that’s the case, that would mean more opportunities to rack up strikeouts. But I think this is an attainable number for him regardless.

Glasnow has 7+ Ks in 2 of 3 starts so far, collecting 17 Ks in 13.0 innings.

He has 27 Ks in 80 plate appearances against the current Texas Rangers lineup, which equates to a hearty 33.8 K%.

Glasnow’s 30.4 K% so far this year ranks in the 84th percentile.

Working off a mid-90s fastball, Glasnow has two secondary pitches (curveball, slider) that are generating a whiff rate north of 37.0%.

The Rangers have the seventh-highest whiff rate on curveballs and sliders (35.6%).

Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-103): Ohtani is awesome, and I hate fading him. But this is as much about his opportunity to walk as anything else.

Texas starter Tyler Mahle has been dealing for the Rangers, allowing just eight hits (zero homers) through 19.2 innings of work. He has a .203 opponent xBA (81st percentile).

Mahle has had command issues, though, evidenced by his 26th-percentile walk rate (12.0%).

Given how daunting a task it is to keep Ohtani muzzled, I could see Mahle issuing a walk or two to the reigning NL MVP — either by choice or by wildness.

Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 12 of his past 17 games. Also, he’s just 1-for-6 with a single and two Ks against Mahle.

MLB prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 04/20/2025.

Heat vs. Cavaliers Game 1 prop picks April 20: Herro, Jerome should fill the net in series opener

The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers host the Miami Heat on Sunday night in Game 1 of their opening-round Eastern Conference playoff series.

The pregame narrative: Ty Jerome is a bit of an unsung hero for the Cavaliers, and I think his points prop is in bargain territory. On the other side, Tyler Herro is a reliable, high-volume shooter from 3-point range that should can a few triples tonight.

Check out my Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks for April 20.

Heat vs. Cavaliers prop picks

Best Bet: Herro over 2.5 threes (-103)

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