Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Best MLB prop bets April 20: Shohei Ohtani has value to score, fade Christian Walker

The Los Angeles Dodgers face the Texas Rangers on Sunday afternoon, and that’s where two of my three MLB prop bets come from.

The pregame narrative: I like Tyler Glasnow to go over his strikeout total against a group he’s carved up in the past, while Shohei Ohtani has a good price on his runs prop. Later on, fade Christian Walker against the San Diego Padres.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 20.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Walker under 0.5 hits (+115)

The Houston Astros might’ve swung and missed again on a veteran free agent first baseman.

After two miserable years with Jose Abreu, the Astros went back into free agency and plucked former Diamondback Christian Walker. It’s still early, but the returns so far haven’t been remotely close to expectations.

In his first 20 games with Houston, Walker has a .164/.265/.274 slash line.

He ranks in the 25th percentile in xBA (.222) and in the 18th percentile in K rate (28.9%), per Baseball Savant.

Walker has twice as many strikeouts (24) as he has hits (12).

Although he has a hit and a run in both games of this series against the San Diego Padres, I expect that success to be short-lived.

Tonight, Walker and the Astros face Padres starter Dylan Cease in what I hope remains a one-sided matchup. Walker is 0-for-9 with three strikeouts against Cease.

It hasn’t been a banner start to the year for Cease, but his .286 opponent batting average is well above his xBA (.250). So hopefully he’ll start moving in the right direction.

Key stat: Walker is hitless in seven of his past 11 games, batting 5-for-37 (.135) in that span.

Best MLB picks

Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts (+100): The high-leverage arms in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen have been used quite a bit recently, which could mean a longer rope for Glasnow on Sunday.

If that’s the case, that would mean more opportunities to rack up strikeouts. But I think this is an attainable number for him regardless.

Glasnow has 7+ Ks in 2 of 3 starts so far, collecting 17 Ks in 13.0 innings.

He has 27 Ks in 80 plate appearances against the current Texas Rangers lineup, which equates to a hearty 33.8 K%.

Glasnow’s 30.4 K% so far this year ranks in the 84th percentile.

Working off a mid-90s fastball, Glasnow has two secondary pitches (curveball, slider) that are generating a whiff rate north of 37.0%.

The Rangers have the seventh-highest whiff rate on curveballs and sliders (35.6%).

Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-143): If I can back Ohtani to score a run at anything better than -150, I’m going to at least look at it.

Tyler Mahle has been dealing for the Texas Rangers, but his 0.92 ERA through four starts doesn’t look as sparkly next to his 3.00 xERA.

Nor does his 26th-percentile walk rate (12.0%).

Ohtani has scored in 14 of 20 games, tallying 21 runs total. He has also reached base in 18 of 20.

As a whole, the Dodgers’ lineup has fared well against Mahle: 31-for-103 (.301) with a .437 SLG. Someone should be able to drive the leadoff man home.

MLB prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 04/20/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 19: Fade Jalen Duren, count on Kawhi Leonard staying hot

On the first day of the NBA playoffs, I’m targeting a trio of prop bets from the four-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard has been on fire for weeks, and he’s worth backing on his points prop against the Denver Nuggets. I’m also taking the over on Donte DiVincenzo‘s 3s prop and fading Jalen Duren.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 19.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Leonard over 24.5 points (-130)

How long will Leonard be at the top of his game? I’m not sure, but I’ll ride the wave while I can.

Leonard has only played 51.1% of regular-season games over the past eight seasons. His injury woes are well-documented … but so are his on-court accolades.

And right now, we’re seeing a version of The Claw that should put the rest of the playoff field on notice.

Check out how Leonard performed in the final 15 games of the year:

26.5 PPG
55.2 FG%
49.3 3PT%
84.7 FT%

Also of note is the fact that Leonard played 42-plus minutes in back-to-back games to close out the season. He hadn’t done that since April 2023.

If you’re spooked by Leonard’s lengthy injury history, maybe steer clear of the Clippers on the NBA Finals futures market. But taking things one game at a time, Leonard is a player to target.

Leonard didn’t face Denver during the season, but the Nuggets allowed the sixth-most points to opposing small forwards, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Leonard has 20-plus points in 15 consecutive games, cashing this bet in 10 of those matchups.

Best NBA picks

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (-106): A toe sprain caused DiVincenzo to miss almost six weeks of action this season, but he’s been excellent since returning in late February.

Over his final 22 games, the former Knick put on a clinic from 3-point range:

44.7 3PT%
2+ threes in 20 of 22
3+ threes in 15 of 22

In his first game post-injury, DiVincenzo went 3-for-6 from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll face on Saturday night.

The Minnesota Timberwolves run through Anthony Edwards, obviously, but DiVincenzo has been crushing it off the bench and looks like fair value in this market.

Duren under 22.5 points/rebounds (-125): The Detroit Pistons went 3-1 against the New York Knicks this season, but Duren didn’t do much to help the cause.

In four games against the Knicks, Duren averaged 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (19.1 PR).

Duren finished below 22.5 PR in 3 of 4 games. In the lone exception, he was a perfect 9-for-9 from the field.

Throughout the season, Duren averaged 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds (22.1 PR), so this number is just a whisker above his average. And given how tough the matchup is, I think the under is the play.

The Knicks allow the third-fewest points and the fewest rebounds to opposing centres.

NBA prop picks made at 4:25 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 19: Fade Jalen Duren, count on Kawhi Leonard staying hot

On the first day of the NBA playoffs, I’m targeting a trio of prop bets from the four-game slate.

The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard has been on fire for weeks, and he’s worth backing on his points prop against the Denver Nuggets. I’m also taking the over on Donte DiVincenzo‘s 3s prop and fading Jalen Duren.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 19.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Leonard over 24.5 points (-122)

Embed: #112655

How long will Leonard be at the top of his game? I’m not sure, but I’ll ride the wave while I can.

Leonard has only played 51.1% of regular-season games over the past eight seasons. His injury woes are well-documented … but so are his on-court accolades.

And right now, we’re seeing a version of The Claw that should put the rest of the playoff field on notice.

Check out how Leonard performed in the final 15 games of the year:

26.5 PPG
55.2 FG%
49.3 3PT%
84.7 FT%

Also of note is the fact that Leonard played 42-plus minutes in back-to-back games to close out the season. He hadn’t done that since April 2023.

If you’re spooked by Leonard’s lengthy injury history, maybe steer clear of the Clippers on the NBA Finals futures market. But taking things one game at a time, Leonard is a player to target.

Leonard didn’t face Denver during the season, but the Nuggets allowed the sixth-most points to opposing small forwards, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Leonard has 20-plus points in 15 consecutive games, cashing this bet in 10 of those matchups.

Best NBA picks

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (+114): A toe sprain caused DiVincenzo to miss almost six weeks of action this season, but he’s been excellent since returning in late February.

Over his final 22 games, the former Knick put on a clinic from 3-point range:

44.7 3PT%
2+ threes in 20 of 22
3+ threes in 15 of 22

In his first game post-injury, DiVincenzo went 3-for-6 from deep against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll face on Saturday night.

The Minnesota Timberwolves run through Anthony Edwards, obviously, but DiVincenzo has been crushing it off the bench and looks like a bargain in this market.

Duren under 22.5 points/rebounds (-110): The Detroit Pistons went 3-1 against the New York Knicks this season, but Duren didn’t do much to help the cause.

In four games against the Knicks, Duren averaged 11.3 points and 7.8 rebounds (19.1 PR).

Duren finished below 22.5 PR in 3 of 4 games. In the lone exception, he was a perfect 9-for-9 from the field.

Throughout the season, Duren averaged 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds (22.1 PR), so this number is just a whisker above his average. And given how tough the matchup is, I think the under is the play.

The Knicks allow the third-fewest points and the fewest rebounds to opposing centres.

NBA prop picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.

Best NBA play-in props April 18: Fade Okongwu and Lively, ride with Thompson

I’m buying in on Klay Thompson in a playoff-calibre atmosphere. That strategy has worked out many times in the past.

The pregame narrative: Can Thompson guide the Dallas Mavericks out of the play-in tournament? That remains to be seen, but I do like the over on his point total for Friday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. I’m also fading Onyeka Okongwu and Dereck Lively.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 18.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Thompson over 14.5 points (-110)

Rumours of Thompson’s demise seem to have been exaggerated.

After the longtime Warrior walked to free agency, there was some skepticism about what Thompson would have in the tank for his age-34 season.

And sure, his volume stats are down — but his efficiency is holding up well.

2024-25 season: 39.1 3PT%, 90.5 FT%, 53.5 eFG%

Career: 41.1 3PT%, 86.0 FT%, 54.9 eFG%

Thompson averaged 14.0 points per game this season, which was his lowest sum since his rookie year (2011-12). Still, that puts him right around this total — and I expect him to be heavily involved in a win-or-go-home matchup.

On Wednesday, the four-time NBA champion dropped 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting (5-of-7 from 3-point range). He played 33-plus minutes for the first time in a month, too.

Generating offence beyond the arc will be key for Thompson’s scoring ceiling, as it always has been. And the Memphis Grizzlies are a solid opponent for him to work against, as the Grizzlies allow the sixth-most attempted 3s per game.

Thompson was running point for the Mavericks in their first play-in game. The Grizzlies have allowed the third-most PPG to opposing point guards over the past month, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Thompson scored exactly 15 points in back-to-back matchups against Memphis (despite playing fewer than 30 minutes in both of those games).

Best NBA picks

Lively under 5.5 rebounds (-138): In Wednesday’s play-in game, there were seven Mavericks players with at least three rebounds.

Lively wasn’t one of them.

The 7-foot-1 centre, who was the tallest man on the court for either team, finished with one rebound in 18 minutes.

Led by Anthony Davis, the Mavs have a small army of capable rebounders that needn’t rely on Lively. And given that he hasn’t played 20-plus minutes since January, I’m not looking to rely on him either.

Memphis centre Zach Edey is averaging 15.9 rebounds/game this month, and the Grizzlies allow the ninth-fewest rebounds to opposing centres.

Okongwu under 10.5 rebounds (+100): At 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, Okongwu is a severely undersized centre. And this line is asking a lot of him.

Okongwu is averaging 10.0 rebounds in 41 games since being promoted to the starting lineup in January.

He has gone under 10.5 rebounds in 25 of those 41 games (61.0%).

The fifth-year big has already seen the Miami Heat three times as a starter this year, and he finished with nine or fewer boards in each of those games.

Bam Adebayo (6-foot-9, 255 pounds) might be a bit undersized for a centre, but the Heat also have 7-footer Kel’el Ware in the frontcourt.

Miami has allowed the third-fewest rebounds to opposing centres in the past 30 days.

NBA prop picks made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 18: Look for Logan Webb, Cole Ragans to post strong outings

There’s plenty of star power in Friday night’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: A pair of aces — Logan Webb and Cole Ragans — are in strong positions to shove in their respective matchups. I also like Bryce Harper to score against a very familiar foe.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 18.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Ragans over 7.5 strikeouts (-106)

After a so-so season debut, Ragans has ripped off three strong outings entering Friday night:

5.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 run, 10 Ks
6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 11 Ks
7.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 10 Ks

With that in mind, taking the over on a 7.5-strikeout total is well within reach. And the matchup doesn’t hurt the matter.

The Detroit Tigers have the ninth-highest K rate against left-handed pitchers (25.7%) and the fifth-highest K rate overall (25.1%).

Ragans knows a thing or two about dominating the Tigers. Their current lineup is just 4-for-49 (.082 BA) against him with 16 strikeouts.

When Detroit faces a lefty, the top four hitters in the lineup tend to be Justyn-Henry Malloy, Gleyber Torres, Andy Ibanez and Spencer Torkelson. Those hitters are a combined 1-for-23 with eight Ks in this matchup.

Ragans ranks in the 91st percentile or better in xBA, xERA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

His fastball averages 95.6 mph, which is two ticks harder than the average lefty. He also plays off it with three secondary pitches that have whiff rates of 38.9% or better. The stuff is just really, really good.

Key stat: Ragans has 32 Ks in four career starts against the Tigers, cashing this bet in two of those outings.

Best MLB picks

Harper over 0.5 runs (-120): The Phillies have a ton of experience against Miami starter Sandy Alcantara, and the results have been favourable enough that I want to find a way to buy in.

As a whole, the active Phillies lineup has a .299 BA and a .433 SLG against Alcantara in 279 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.

The underlying numbers (.292 xBA, .449 xSLG) back up the legitimacy of that production.

Harper is 12-for-39 (.308 BA) with five extra-base hits and eight walks against Alcantara.

Harper has an MLB-high 16 walks through 19 games, so I’m steering clear of a bases prop tonight. But whether he walks or gets a hit, I expect him to roam the bases and be a threat to score.

In his past 11 games, Harper has scored 10 runs and cashed this bet seven times.

Webb over 18.5 outs (+110): Backing any pitcher to go more than six innings can be a white-knuckled experience, but the two-time reigning NL innings champ has what it takes to get it done.

Webb is a workhorse, throwing 420.2 innings through the 2023 and ’24 seasons. No one else even hit the 400-inning mark.

So far this year, Webb has averaged 18.0 outs per start and cashed this bet in two of four.

Now he faces a Los Angeles Angels squad that has been reeling in the past week: .207/.249/.333 slash line with a 66 wRC+ (26th in MLB).

Webb has a staggering 39.3 K% against the Angels’ lineup, as well as a .169 opponent BA in 59 at-bats.

The San Francisco Giants’ bullpen is in decent shape right now, but the team is smack in the middle of 17 consecutive game days. A deep outing from Webb wouldn’t hurt.

MLB prop picks made at 12:01 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 18: Look for Logan Webb, Cole Ragans to post strong outings

There’s plenty of star power in Friday night’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: A pair of aces — Logan Webb and Cole Ragans — are in strong positions to shove in their respective matchups. I also like Bryce Harper to score against a very familiar foe.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 18.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Ragans over 7.5 strikeouts (-115)

Embed: #112639

After a so-so season debut, Ragans has ripped off three strong outings entering Friday night:

5.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 run, 10 Ks
6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 11 Ks
7.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 10 Ks

With that in mind, taking the over on a 7.5-strikeout total is well within reach. And the matchup doesn’t hurt the matter.

The Detroit Tigers have the ninth-highest K rate against left-handed pitchers (25.7%) and the fifth-highest K rate overall (25.1%).

Ragans knows a thing or two about dominating the Tigers, as their current lineup is just 4-for-49 (.082 BA) against him with 16 strikeouts.

When Detroit faces a lefty, the top four hitters in the lineup tend to be Justyn-Henry Malloy, Gleyber Torres, Andy Ibanez and Spencer Torkelson. Those hitters are a combined 1-for-23 with eight Ks in this matchup.

Ragans ranks in the 91st percentile or better in xBA, xERA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

His fastball averages 95.6 mph, which is two ticks harder than the average lefty, and he plays off it with three secondary pitches that have whiff rates of 38.9% or better. The stuff is just really, really good.

Key stat: Ragans has 32 Ks in four career starts against the Tigers, cashing this bet in two of those outings.

Best MLB picks

Harper over 0.5 runs (-109): The Phillies have a ton of experience against Miami starter Sandy Alcantara, and the results have been favourable enough that I want to find a way to buy in.

As a whole, the active Phillies lineup has a .299 BA and a .433 SLG against Alcantara in 279 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.

The underlying numbers (.292 xBA, .449 xSLG) back up the legitimacy of that production.

Harper is 12-for-39 (.308 BA) with five extra-base hits and eight walks against Alcantara.

Harper has an MLB-high 16 walks through 19 games, so I’m steering clear of a bases prop tonight. But whether he walks or gets a hit, I expect him to roam the bases and be a threat to score.

In his past 11 games, Harper has scored 10 runs and cashed this bet seven times.

Webb over 18.5 outs (+123): Backing any pitcher to go more than six innings can be a white-knuckled experience, but the two-time reigning NL innings champ has what it takes to get it done.

Webb is a workhorse, throwing 420.2 innings through the 2023 and ’24 seasons. No one else even hit the 400-inning mark.

So far this year, Webb has averaged 18.0 outs per start and cashed this bet in two of four.

Now he faces a Los Angeles Angels squad that has been reeling in the past week: .207/.249/.333 slash line with a 66 wRC+ (26th in MLB).

Webb has a staggering 39.3 K% against the Angels’ lineup, as well as a .169 opponent BA in 59 at-bats.

The San Francisco Giants’ bullpen is in decent shape right now, but the team is smack in the middle of 17 consecutive game days. A deep outing from Webb wouldn’t hurt.

MLB prop picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 04/18/2025.

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Heat vs. Hawks play-in SGP predictions April 18: Ride with Mitchell, Niang in +270 parlay

The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat on Friday night for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s winner will likely get waxed by the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, but we don’t need to worry about that right now. In this +270 SGP, I think two lesser-known players, Georges Niang and Davion Mitchell, are worth backing on milestone props.

Check out my Heat vs. Hawks play-in SGP predictions for April 19.

Heat vs. Hawks predictions

Parlay: Over 214.5 points | Niang 2+ threes | Mitchell 6+ assists (+270)

Embed: #112641

Over 214.5 points (-180): The Hawks hit a lot of overs, and doing so at this number really shouldn’t be a problem.

Overs are 26-14-0 (65.0%) in Atlanta’s home games this year, per Team Rankings. That’s the highest rate in the NBA.

The Hawks play at the fastest pace of any home team in the NBA (104.20 possessions per game).

This over has cashed in 35 of Atlanta’s past 36 games, dating back to Jan. 30.

The only time the Hawks failed to hit this point total since Jan. 30 was a 98-86 win over the Heat on Feb. 24. But I view that as a complete anomaly.

Since last April, overs are 4-1 in head-to-head matchups between these teams. Also, overs are 5-1 in Miami’s past six games overall.

NBA SGP legs

Niang 2+ threes (-167): Niang was the least exciting asset in this year’s deadline deal that saw Caris LeVert and De’Andre Hunter trade places. But he still plays a valuable role.

Coming off the bench for about 23 minutes per night, Niang shot the lights out from 3-point range for the Hawks in the regular season:

41.3 3PT%
2.7 makes/game
6.6 attempts/game
2+ threes in 21 of 28 games

Niang went under this milestone with 1-for-4 shooting from deep in Atlanta’s first play-in game. The Hawks were a miserable 4-for-21 (19.0%) from 3-point range in that matchup.

But Niang’s broader body of work with his new team is stellar, and I think he deserves enough looks on Friday to cash this bet.

Mitchell 6+ assists (-150): Mitchell doesn’t typically start for the Heat, but he still plays plenty of minutes and is relied upon to run the offence for significant stretches.

Take Wednesday’s play-in game, for example. Coming off the bench, Mitchell played 33 minutes and had nine assists.

In 11 games prior, Mitchell averaged 32.6 minutes and 6.8 assists despite only making one start.

My hope is that Atlanta pushes the pace to an extent where Mitchell gets a ton of assist opportunities. He has cashed this bet in two of three games against the Hawks since joining the Heat

Heat vs. Hawks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 04/18/2025.

Angels vs. Rangers SGP predictions April 17: Fade Rocker, bet on Seager and Soler to rake

Kumar Rocker looks to shake off some early struggles on Thursday night when his Texas Rangers host the Los Angeles Angels.

The pregame narrative: Will that actually happen, though? I don’t buy it. I’m fading Rocker in my +260 SGP while targeting additional prop bets on Corey Seager and Jorge Soler.

Check out my Angels vs. Rangers SGP predictions for April 17.

Angels vs. Rangers predictions

Parlay: Rocker under 5.5 Ks | Seager over 1.5 bases | Soler 1+ hits (+260)

Embed: #112626

Rocker under 5.5 strikeouts (-235): Rocker has six total strikeouts through three outings, and I’m not expecting him to magically double his season total tonight.

The right-hander has a slider with ample bite, but neither of his fastballs generate any swing-and-miss.

And given that the Angels have the ninth-lowest whiff rate against sliders (30.0%), per Baseball Savant, I don’t see how Rocker racks up punchouts in this matchup.

Rocker ranks in the fifth percentile in K%, the 13th percentile in whiff rate and the 23rd percentile in chase rate.

MLB SGP legs

Seager over 1.5 bases (-139): Seager was someone I had my eye on as an AL MVP contender entering the season. He’s not quite in that mode right now, but I still like what I’m seeing overall.

16 games
.288/.344/.458 slash line
88th-percentile xSLG (.588)
84th-percentile barrel rate (15.2%)

Seager has cashed this bet in both games so far this series, as well as six of his past nine.

Now he’ll face Angels righty Jack Kochanowicz, who has allowed a .281 BA to left-hitting players in 178 career at-bats.

Soler 1+ hits (-200): Let’s get back to Rocker, who has allowed 18 hits through 11.1 innings. I have to back someone in the Angels’ lineup tonight.

Soler seems like a good place to land, since he’s crushing the ball (93rd-percentile barrel rate) and has a hit in 13 of 17 games.

The biggest risk for Soler is striking out, but as established, I don’t think Rocker has the goods to make that too much of a concern.

Soler is slugging .632 against sliders in 19 at-bats this year. Good luck attacking him that way.

Angels vs. Rangers predictions made at 3:26 p.m. ET on 04/17/2025.

Best NBA play-in props April 18: Fade Okongwu and Lively, ride with Thompson

I’m buying in on Klay Thompson in a playoff-calibre atmosphere. That strategy has worked out many times in the past.

The pregame narrative: Can Thompson guide the Dallas Mavericks out of the play-in tournament? That remains to be seen, but I do like the over on his point total for Friday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. I’m also fading Onyeka Okongwu and Dereck Lively.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 18.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Thompson over 14.5 points (-105)

Embed: #112611

Rumours of Thompson’s demise seem to have been exaggerated.

After the longtime Warrior walked to free agency, there was some skepticism about what Thompson would have in the tank for his age-34 season.

And sure, his volume stats are down — but his efficiency is holding up well.

2024-25 season: 39.1 3PT%, 90.5 FT%, 53.5 eFG%

Career: 41.1 3PT%, 86.0 FT%, 54.9 eFG%

Thompson averaged 14.0 points per game this season, which was his lowest sum since his rookie year (2011-12). Still, that puts him right around this total — and I expect him to be heavily involved in a win-or-go-home matchup.

On Wednesday, the four-time NBA champion dropped 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting (5-of-7 from 3-point range). He played 33-plus minutes for the first time in a month, too.

Generating offence beyond the arc will be key for Thompson’s scoring ceiling, as it always has been. And the Memphis Grizzlies are a solid opponent for him to work against, as the Grizzlies allow the sixth-most attempted 3s per game.

Thompson was running point for the Mavericks in their first play-in game. The Grizzlies have allowed the third-most PPG to opposing point guards over the past month, per Betting Pros.

Key stat: Thompson scored exactly 15 points in back-to-back matchups against Memphis (despite playing fewer than 30 minutes in both of those games).

Best NBA picks

Lively under 4.5 rebounds (+104): In Wednesday’s play-in game, there were seven Mavericks players with at least three rebounds.

Lively wasn’t one of them.

The 7-foot-1 centre, who was the tallest man on the court for either team, finished with one rebound in 18 minutes.

Led by Anthony Davis, the Mavs have a small army of capable rebounders that needn’t rely on Lively. And given that he hasn’t played 20-plus minutes since January, I’m not looking to rely on him either.

Memphis centre Zach Edey is averaging 15.9 rebounds/game this month, and the Grizzlies allow the ninth-fewest rebounds to opposing centres.

Okongwu under 10.5 rebounds (-107): At 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, Okongwu is a severely undersized centre. And this line is asking a lot of him.

Okongwu is averaging 10.0 rebounds in 41 games since being promoted to the starting lineup in January.

He has gone under 10.5 rebounds in 25 of those 41 games (61.0%).

The fifth-year big has already seen the Miami Heat three times as a starter this year, and he finished with nine or fewer boards in each of those games.

Bam Adebayo (6-foot-9, 255 pounds) might be a bit undersized for a centre, but the Heat also have 7-footer Kel’el Ware in the frontcourt.

Miami has allowed the third-fewest rebounds to opposing centres in the past 30 days.

NBA prop picks made at 1:37 p.m. ET on 04/17/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 17: Bet on Witt to score, fade Canning vs. Cardinals

Bobby Witt Jr. is on a roll right now, and I think he can keep that going on Thursday night against the Detroit Tigers.

The pregame narrative: Witt is an elite hitter who also possesses top-tier speed, and that combo makes him a compelling play to score a run. I’m also taking the over on Taj Bradley‘s strikeouts prop and fading Griffin Canning in the same market.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 17.

MLB prop bets

Best Bet: Canning under 4.5 strikeouts (-115)

Canning isn’t a flashy guy to have a bet on, but don’t let the lack of brand recognition get in the way of a logical fade.

A perennial back-of-rotation starter, Canning used to at least hover around the 9.0 K/9 rate on an annual basis. But he dipped to a 6.8 K/9 last year, and I’m not confident in him to bump the rate back up.

Canning is trying to simplify things in 2025, cutting the curveball out of his arsenal and sticking to a three-pitch mix. His fastball has below-average velocity (93.3 mph, versus 94.5 mph as the MLB average for righties).

His slider is his out pitch, and he’s throwing it more than 40.0% of the time, per Baseball Savant.

But given that the St. Louis Cardinals — tonight’s opponent — have the fourth-lowest whiff rate on sliders (27.9%), I doubt we’ll see him rack up strikeouts.

St. Louis also has the fifth-lowest K rate in the majors (19.5%). Five consecutive starters have gone under 4.5 Ks against the Cardinals.

Expect Canning to be the sixth.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Canning has gone under 4.5 Ks in 23 of 34 starts (67.6%).

Best MLB picks

Bradley over 6.5 Ks (-112): Three starts into 2025, Bradley has deployed a balanced attack from the mound, and it’s been effective.

All four of his pitches have a whiff rate between 25.0% and 28.6%. That means none of them have been elite, but each of them (four-seamer, cutter, splitter, curveball) can be called upon based on feel.

Bradley has exactly seven Ks in all three starts.

His 30.9% K rate ranks in the 84th percentile.

I’m not blown away by Bradley’s pitch metrics, but I am inclined to back him in a plus matchup against the free-swinging New York Yankees.

The Yankees have the sixth-highest K rate (24.6%) and the third-highest whiff rate (28.3%) in MLB.

Bradley struck out seven over 6.0 innings when he faced the Yankees at home a season ago.

Witt over 0.5 runs (+114): Witt is really, really good. Let’s start there.

Last year’s AL MVP runner-up ranks in the 99th percentile in xBA (.349) and 95th percentile in xwOBA (.423).

So far this season, Witt is batting .310 and currently owns a nine-game hit streak. He has also scored in eight of his past 13 games.

What really pushes this pick over the line for me is Witt’s history against Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson:

6-for-11 (.545)
4 extra-base hits (2 HRs)
.926 xSLG
99.5 mph average exit velocity

MLB prop picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 04/17/2025.

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