There’s plenty of star power in Friday night’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: A pair of aces — Logan Webb and Cole Ragans — are in strong positions to shove in their respective matchups. I also like Bryce Harper to score against a very familiar foe.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 18.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Ragans over 7.5 strikeouts (-115)
After a so-so season debut, Ragans has ripped off three strong outings entering Friday night:
- 5.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 run, 10 Ks
- 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 run, 11 Ks
- 7.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 10 Ks
With that in mind, taking the over on a 7.5-strikeout total is well within reach. And the matchup doesn’t hurt the matter.
The Detroit Tigers have the ninth-highest K rate against left-handed pitchers (25.7%) and the fifth-highest K rate overall (25.1%).
Ragans knows a thing or two about dominating the Tigers, as their current lineup is just 4-for-49 (.082 BA) against him with 16 strikeouts.
When Detroit faces a lefty, the top four hitters in the lineup tend to be Justyn-Henry Malloy, Gleyber Torres, Andy Ibanez and Spencer Torkelson. Those hitters are a combined 1-for-23 with eight Ks in this matchup.
Ragans ranks in the 91st percentile or better in xBA, xERA, K rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.
His fastball averages 95.6 mph, which is two ticks harder than the average lefty, and he plays off it with three secondary pitches that have whiff rates of 38.9% or better. The stuff is just really, really good.
Key stat: Ragans has 32 Ks in four career starts against the Tigers, cashing this bet in two of those outings.
Best MLB picks
Harper over 0.5 runs (-109): The Phillies have a ton of experience against Miami starter Sandy Alcantara, and the results have been favourable enough that I want to find a way to buy in.
- As a whole, the active Phillies lineup has a .299 BA and a .433 SLG against Alcantara in 279 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.
- The underlying numbers (.292 xBA, .449 xSLG) back up the legitimacy of that production.
- Harper is 12-for-39 (.308 BA) with five extra-base hits and eight walks against Alcantara.
Harper has an MLB-high 16 walks through 19 games, so I’m steering clear of a bases prop tonight. But whether he walks or gets a hit, I expect him to roam the bases and be a threat to score.
In his past 11 games, Harper has scored 10 runs and cashed this bet seven times.
Webb over 18.5 outs (+123): Backing any pitcher to go more than six innings can be a white-knuckled experience, but the two-time reigning NL innings champ has what it takes to get it done.
Webb is a workhorse, throwing 420.2 innings through the 2023 and ’24 seasons. No one else even hit the 400-inning mark.
So far this year, Webb has averaged 18.0 outs per start and cashed this bet in two of four.
Now he faces a Los Angeles Angels squad that has been reeling in the past week: .207/.249/.333 slash line with a 66 wRC+ (26th in MLB).
Webb has a staggering 39.3 K% against the Angels’ lineup, as well as a .169 opponent BA in 59 at-bats.
The San Francisco Giants’ bullpen is in decent shape right now, but the team is smack in the middle of 17 consecutive game days. A deep outing from Webb wouldn’t hurt.
MLB prop picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.