The Los Angeles Dodgers face the Texas Rangers on Sunday afternoon, and that’s where two of my three MLB prop bets come from.
The pregame narrative: I like Tyler Glasnow to go over his strikeout total against a group he’s carved up in the past, while fading Shohei Ohtani‘s bases prop comes with an interesting price. Later on, fade Christian Walker against the San Diego Padres.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 20.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Walker under 0.5 hits (+118)
The Houston Astros might’ve swung and missed again on a veteran free agent first baseman.
After two miserable years with Jose Abreu, the Astros went back into free agency and plucked former Diamondback Christian Walker. It’s still early, but the returns so far haven’t been remotely close to expectations.
- In his first 20 games with Houston, Walker has a .164/.265/.274 slash line.
- He ranks in the 25th percentile in xBA (.222) and in the 18th percentile in K rate (28.9%), per Baseball Savant.
- Walker has twice as many strikeouts (24) as he has hits (12).
Although he has a hit and a run in both games of this series against the San Diego Padres, I expect that success to be short-lived.
Tonight, Walker and the Astros face Padres starter Dylan Cease in what I hope remains a one-sided matchup. Walker is 0-for-9 with three strikeouts against Cease.
It hasn’t been a banner start to the year for Cease, but his .286 opponent batting average is well above his xBA (.250). So hopefully he’ll start moving in the right direction.
Key stat: Walker is hitless in seven of his past 11 games, batting 5-for-37 (.135) in that span.
Best MLB picks
Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts (-114): The high-leverage arms in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen have been used quite a bit recently, which could mean a longer rope for Glasnow on Sunday.
If that’s the case, that would mean more opportunities to rack up strikeouts. But I think this is an attainable number for him regardless.
- Glasnow has 7+ Ks in 2 of 3 starts so far, collecting 17 Ks in 13.0 innings.
- He has 27 Ks in 80 plate appearances against the current Texas Rangers lineup, which equates to a hearty 33.8 K%.
- Glasnow’s 30.4 K% so far this year ranks in the 84th percentile.
Working off a mid-90s fastball, Glasnow has two secondary pitches (curveball, slider) that are generating a whiff rate north of 37.0%.
The Rangers have the seventh-highest whiff rate on curveballs and sliders (35.6%).
Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-103): Ohtani is awesome, and I hate fading him. But this is as much about his opportunity to walk as anything else.
Texas starter Tyler Mahle has been dealing for the Rangers, allowing just eight hits (zero homers) through 19.2 innings of work. He has a .203 opponent xBA (81st percentile).
Mahle has had command issues, though, evidenced by his 26th-percentile walk rate (12.0%).
Given how daunting a task it is to keep Ohtani muzzled, I could see Mahle issuing a walk or two to the reigning NL MVP — either by choice or by wildness.
Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 12 of his past 17 games. Also, he’s just 1-for-6 with a single and two Ks against Mahle.
MLB prop picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET on 04/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.