The Houston Astros look to complete a home sweep of the San Diego Padres on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: San Diego (15-6) has otherwise gotten off to a superb start, and Manny Machado is one of the key drivers on offence. I’m backing Machado and Houston’s Jose Altuve in his +310 ticket.
Check out my Padres vs. Astros SGP for Sunday Night Baseball on April 20.
Padres vs. Astros prop bets
SGP: Over 6.5 runs | Machado over 1.5 bases | Altuve over 0.5 hits (+310)
Over 6.5 runs (-165): Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease are a couple of big-name pitchers who know how to quiet bats, but neither one is in a great spot right now.
For Valdez (1-2, 4.91 ERA), he’s flip-flopped between flashes of brilliance and moments of terror. The result is a bunch of batted-ball metrics that are below league average:
- 13th-percentile hard-hit rate (50.0%)
- 28th-percentile xBA (.271)
- 35th-percentile barrel rate (10.0%)
- 42nd-percentile whiff rate (24.4%)
The Padres’ active lineup has a .414 SLG against Valdez in 58 at-bats, which shouldn’t help his cause tonight.
As for Cease, this over has cashed in all four of his starts — and he’s part of the problem. He has a 6.64 ERA while allowing 31 baserunners in 20.1 innings.
MLB SGP legs
Machado over 1.5 bases (+106): The Padres have the sixth-best wRC+ in the past two weeks (120), and Machado has been doing his part.
- In that span, the veteran third baseman has a .909 OPS with six doubles and two home runs.
- He is 8-3 against this prop since April 7 and 13-8 against it overall.
In his lone matchup against Valdez last season, Machado belted a sixth-inning homer as part of a 2-for-4 day.
Valdez is coming off a four-inning start in which he allowed seven runs on 10 hits, so hopefully Machado can go to work against the reeling southpaw.
Altuve over 0.5 hits (-186): Cease’s recent struggles are why I like the over tonight, but a lot of the Astros’ lineup hasn’t found much success against him.
Altuve is an exception.
The leadoff man is 5-for-15 with two homers and two walks against Cease.
Though his power numbers are lagging so far this season, Altuve is still collecting hits at a solid clip. He’s batting .305 through 20 games and has at least one hit in 15 of those.
Padres vs. Astros predictions made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 04/20/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.