The U.S. Open third round begins on Friday and runs through Saturday at Flushing Meadows.
The pregame narrative: Novak Djokovic hasn’t been himself this tournament, and will face a familiar foe in Great Britain’s Cameron Norrie. On the women’s side, World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka takes on 2021 Canadian U.S. Open finalist Leylah Fernandez.
Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open predictions for the third round, featuring a parlay on two Canadians, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov.
US Open predictions: Third round
Full tennis betting markets
Best bet: Bublik to win (-117)
Bublik is poised for a deep run at Flushing Meadows.
The Kazakhstani opted to skip the beginning of the North American summer swing and instead stayed overseas, winning a pair of ATP Tour 250 events at the Swiss and Generali Opens.
Before that, we saw flashes of Bublik’s ceiling when he beat No. 1-ranked Jannik Sinner at the Halle Open final, avenging his French Open quarterfinal loss to the Italian earlier that month.
All in all, Bublik is 19-2 in his last 21 matches and is on a 10-match winning streak.
Sure, most of the competition hasn’t been on Paul’s level, but Bublik’s confidence must be bubbling over at the moment.
He hasn’t broken serve yet in New York and has fired a combined 32 aces over two straight-set victories.
Paul, meanwhile, needed north of four hours to defeat Nuno Borges in a five-set thriller that ended at 1:46 a.m. ET Friday morning.
I’ll gladly ride the hot hand in a pick’em.
Top US Open parlay predictions for Saturday
Parlay: Sinner -2.5 sets & Auger-Aliassime +2.5 sets (+110): It’s almost impossible to find value betting on Sinner these days.
Case and point: He’s -210 to beat Canadian Denis Shapovalov in straight sets. But I’ll get on that train as the first of two legs in this parlay.
- Excluding his final in Cincinnati against Carlos Alcaraz, where he retired mid-set with an illness, Sinner has only been broken three times in seven matches during the North American swing.
- He’s won every match in straight sets with ease. Shapovalov is a fine player, but Sinner is simply on a different level.
- The Italian has won 25 of 27 sets against players outside of the top 20 since the start of Wimbledon.
Now on to another Canadian, Felix Auger-Aliassime.
I expect FAA to at least take one set off No. 3 Alexander Zverev.
The German has had an awful season at majors in search of his first Grand Slam, and was in rough physical shape exiting the Cincinnati Open semifinal against Alcaraz.
Auger-Aliassime has won two of his last three meetings against Zverev, pushing another to a final set.
US Open predictions made at 2:44 p.m. on 08/29/2025.
Djokovic vs. Norrie best bet
Best bet: Norrie +7.5 games (-136)
Full tennis betting markets
I backed American wildcard Zachary Svajda +7.5 against Djokovic in the second round, which fell flat.
But I feel comfortable fading the all-time great again for a few reasons.
Djokovic has been battling fatigue in this tournament. He took six weeks off from the end of Wimbledon and hasn’t been sharp through two rounds.
“I was really surprised how bad I was feeling in the second [set] physically,” Djokovic told reporters after his first-round matchup. “I just struggled to stay in long exchanges and recover after points.”
The four-time U.S. Open winner lost his first set against Svajda in Round 2 while committing 14 unforced errors — making me think my bet was looking great — before winning the next three.
But that was because of Svajda’s own problems. The American was serving below 90 mph while dealing with a leg ailment, and Djokovic cruised to a victory.
That said, I think Norrie could be the man to give Djokovic some real trouble.
- The Brit has been in great form since the start of the Geneva Open, going 16-8 with a Rolland Garros fourth-round appearance and a Wimbledon quarterfinal berth.
- Norrie did lose to Djokovic twice in that span — both times on clay — but won a set off the Serbian in Geneva.
I think he should be able to cover this massive number against a worn-down legend.
Key stat: Norrie is 4-2 against this line in his last six Grand Slam matches against top-10 ranked players. He also lost by eight games in one of the outliers.
US Open best bet: Sabalenka vs. Fernandez
Sabalenka over 12.5 games won (+105): I believe Sabalenka will win this match, but not without some adversity.
This wager implies the World No. 1 will have to win at least one set 7-5, or go to three sets against Fernandez.
So far, Sabalenka has won exactly 13 games in both matches.
The Belarusian hasn’t been sharp on her service game, putting 15 break points up for grabs against her first two opponents. They’ve only cashed in two combined, but the risk has been there.
Fernandez, a capable hard-court player, can press Sabalenka and capitalize on those opportunities.
The Canadian won the Citi DC Open in July and holds a 62.92% win rate on this surface (her best of any outdoor surface).
US Open predictions made at 1:45 p.m. on 08/28/2025.
