Staff Writer

Yankees vs. Astros SGP predictions Sept. 3: Bet on New York, Aaron Judge to put up runs at +260

The New York Yankees look for a third straight series win when they take on the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: New York won yesterday’s series opener and is now 8-1 in its last nine games while averaging 7.4 runs. The Yankees sit 2.5 games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East and are favoured to win again tonight.

See why I like plenty of offence in my Yankees vs. Astros SGP predictions for Sept. 3, featuring Aaron Judge and Jeremy Pena.

Yankees vs. Astros predictions

Parlay: Yankees over 4.5 runs | Judge over 1.5 bases | Pena over 0.5 hits (+260)

Yankees over 4.5 runs (-115): New York leads MLB with 5.26 runs per game this season, which is a good place to start. And even better, the Yankees’ offence has gone nuclear in the past 20 games:

6.5 runs per game (2nd)
.541 SLG (2nd)
144 wRC+ (2nd)
280 ISO (1st)

The squad has cleared this total in eight of its last nine games and has a chance to stay hot against a suspect right-hander, Jason Alexander.

Alexander was acquired by the Astros ahead of the all-star break and put together a solid August on paper (2.17 ERA across five starts). But his underlying metrics are concerning.

In those outings, Alexander’s xBA (.272) far exceeded his actual BA (.204). He also allowed a 49% hard-hit rate. For context, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 50.9% hard-hit rate ranks in the 88th percentile.

On the season, Alexander ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, K rate, and hard-hit rate.

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MLB SGP legs

Judge over 1.5 bases (-134): Judge took Alexander deep when these teams met in August, and I fully expect him to do more damage tonight.

That’s not exactly a hot take, considering he leads MLB in batting average (.325) with 43 home runs and an 1.113 OPS.

Judge went 2-for-5 yesterday and has now cleared this line in three straight games.

On the season, he ranks first in total bases per game (2.44). As long as the Astros don’t issue several intentional walks, which they didn’t yesterday, Judge should have plenty of opportunities.

Pena over 0.5 hits (-275): Finally, I’ll turn to Pena to record a hit.

The Stros’ shortstop is batting .304 and has done his best work at home and against right-handers, which is the situation he’ll be in tonight.

At home: 341/.402/.514 slash line
vs. RHPs: .307/.364/.477 slash line

New York is starting Will Warren (4.30 ERA), who’s been hit hard since July and owns a 40th-percentile xBA (.255).

Warren has some serious command issues, but Pena is a free swinger, with a 12th-percentile chase rate and 28th-percentile walk rate.

That should make this leg a cinch.

Yankees vs. Astros predictions made at 10 a.m. ET on 09/03/2025.

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US Open quarterfinal picks and predictions Sept. 2: Best bets on Djokovic vs. Fritz, Lehecka vs. Alcaraz

We’re into crunch time at Flushing Meadows with the quarterfinals beginning on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Taylor Fritz is the last American male standing in the U.S. Open and will have to get past Novak Djokovic to stay alive. The Serbian legend has a 10-0 record against Fritz and is favoured in this matchup.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the quarterfinal, featuring a pick on Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz.

US Open picks: Quarterfinal

Full tennis betting markets

Best Bet: Djokovic -1.5 sets (+100)

Fritz is arguably playing the best tennis of his life, but will it be enough to beat Djokovic?

I don’t think so.

Admittedly, I was worried about the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s conditioning in the early stages of this event. But Djokovic has cruised to the quarterfinal at Flushing Meadows, dropping just two sets and putting together his most complete performance in the round of 16.

Djokovic beat Jan-Lennard Struff, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, on Sunday. He fired 12 aces to no double faults and allowed just one break-point opportunity.

Fritz is also coming off a dominant round of 16 win — over 21-seed Tomas Machac — and has also only dropped two sets in Flushing.

The American is rolling, but he’s constantly fallen short of winning the “big one.”

Carlos Alcaraz beat him in four sets in this year’s Wimbledon semifinal, and Jannik Sinner beat him in straight sets in last year’s U.S. Open final.

Those two and Djokovic are a class above the rest of the ATP Tour, and Fritz is an awful 1-17 against them (beating Sinner in 2021).

Key stat: Djokovic is 10-0 against Fritz, covering a -1.5 set spread in nine of those matches.

US Open best bets

Lehecka +7.5 games (-125): Alcaraz is in buzz-saw mode right now, reaching the quarterfinal without dropping a single set, while only being broken once.

But I feel like Lehecka can give him some trouble. Why? First off, the Czech has had success against Alcaraz this year:

February (ATP Qatar Open): 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win
June (Queen’s Club Championships): 7-5, 6-7, 6-2 loss

Yes, I consider a three-set loss to Alcaraz on grass a “success,” and so should you.

I was debating backing Lehecka +2.5 sets at +108, but this feels safer to me. Even a 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 win for Alcaraz would get this done.

Lehecka is 9-3 since the North American summer hard-court swing began, with losses to Fritz, Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur.

Those are all top-10 ranked players, and Lehecka never lost a set to any of them without securing at least four games.

US Open picks made at 2:32 p.m. on 09/01/2025.

US Open quarterfinal picks and predictions Sept. 2: Best bets on Djokovic vs. Fritz, Lehecka vs. Alcaraz

We’re into crunch time at Flushing Meadows with the quarterfinals beginning on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Taylor Fritz is the last American male standing in the U.S. Open and will have to get past Novak Djokovic to stay alive. The Serbian legend has a 10-0 record against Fritz and is favoured in this matchup.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the quarterfinal, featuring a pick on Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz.

US Open picks: Quarterfinal

Full tennis betting markets

Best Bet: Djokovic -1.5 sets (+105)

Fritz is arguably playing the best tennis of his life, but will it be enough to beat Djokovic?

I don’t think so.

Admittedly, I was worried about the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s conditioning in the early stages of this event. But Djokovic has cruised to the quarterfinal at Flushing Meadows, dropping just two sets and putting together his most complete performance in the round of 16.

Djokovic beat Jan-Lennard Struff, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, on Sunday. He fired 12 aces to no double faults and allowed just one break-point opportunity.

Fritz is also coming off a dominant round of 16 win — over 21-seed Tomas Machac — and has also only dropped two sets in Flushing.

The American is rolling, but he’s constantly fallen short of winning the “big one.”

Carlos Alcaraz beat him in four sets in this year’s Wimbledon semifinal, and Jannik Sinner beat him in straight sets in last year’s U.S. Open final.

Those two and Djokovic are a class above the rest of the ATP Tour, and Fritz is an awful 1-17 against them (beating Sinner in 2021).

Key stat: Djokovic is 10-0 against Fritz, covering a -1.5 set spread in nine of those matches.

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US Open best bets

Lehecka +7.5 games (-118): Alcaraz is in buzz-saw mode right now, reaching the quarterfinal without dropping a single set, while only being broken once.

But I feel like Lehecka can give him some trouble. Why? First off, the Czech has had success against Alcaraz this year:

February (ATP Qatar Open): 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win
June (Queen’s Club Championships): 7-5, 6-7, 6-2 loss

Yes, I consider a three-set loss to Alcaraz on grass a “success,” and so should you.

I was debating backing Lehecka +2.5 sets at +108, but this feels safer to me. Even a 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 win for Alcaraz would get this done.

Lehecka is 9-3 since the North American summer hard-court swing began, with losses to Fritz, Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur.

Those are all top-10 ranked players, and Lehecka never lost a set to any of them without securing at least four games.

US Open picks made at 2:32 p.m. on 09/01/2025.

Cowboys vs. Eagles Week 1 Thursday Night Football picks: Best bets, prop predictions for 2025 season opener

The 2025 NFL season begins on Thursday Night Football when the Philadelphia Eagles raise their championship banner against the Dallas Cowboys.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia was the clear-cut best team in the NFC East last year, and the team trounced Dallas by a combined 62 points in their matchups. Can the Cowboys kick off the year with a massive upset? The Eagles are favoured by 7.5 points as of Monday morning.

Check out my Cowboys vs. Eagles picks for the season opener on Sept. 4, featuring a prop bet on DeVonta Smith.

Cowboys vs. Eagles picks

Best bet: Over 47.5 points (-110)

I believe this will be closer than most people think.

Last year, Dallas scored a combined 13 points in two games against Philadelphia. Is that horrible? Yes. But Cooper Rush started both games, effectively tying one hand behind the back of then-offensive-coordinator (and now head coach) Brian Schottenheimer.

With Dak Prescott fully healthy and George Pickens lining up opposite Cee Dee Lamb, I expect Dallas to put up some points.

Philadelphia ranked in the top three in scoring defence, total defence, and defensive EPA per play (per RBSDM.com), so things won’t come easy.

However, the Prescott-led Cowboys have averaged 32.0 PPG against the Eagles since the start of the 2023 season. In those three games, the over on this total is 2-1 with one 46-point game.

And we all know what Philadelphia’s offence can do.

Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and Smith are no joke, and they line up behind arguably the best offensive line in football.

Dallas’ defence was sieve-like last season, and it’s now missing All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons for good. I see this being a blow-for-blow shootout to ring in the season.

Key stat: Dallas had the fifth-best overs rate (11-6) last season.

Thursday Night Football prop pick

Smith over 55.5 receiving yards (-118): Smith has always been the No. 2 option in Philadelphia, but this line seems a tad disrespectful.

The speedy wideout averaged 64.7 receiving yards in the regular season last year and went off for 120 yards the last time he played the Cowboys.

In his last five games against Dallas, Smith is 3-2 against this line while averaging 74.2 yards.

The Cowboys allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2024, per Pro Football Reference.

At the risk of stating the obvious, losing Parsons is a massive blow to Dallas’ pass rush. His absence should give Smith more time to get open, allowing Hurts to find him for large chunk plays.

Moreover, three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who was part of the trade package for Parsons, is a definite upgrade in Dallas’ trenches.

Philly will still be able to run the ball, but it should skew to a more pass-heavy attack, given those significant lineup changes.

Cowboys vs. Eagles picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 09/01/2025.

Cowboys vs. Eagles Week 1 Thursday Night Football picks: Best bets, prop predictions for 2025 season opener

The 2025 NFL season begins on Thursday Night Football when the Philadelphia Eagles raise their championship banner against the Dallas Cowboys.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia was the clear-cut best team in the NFC East last year, and the team trounced Dallas by a combined 62 points in their matchups. Can the Cowboys kick off the year with a massive upset? The Eagles are favoured by 7.5 points as of Monday morning.

Check out my Cowboys vs. Eagles picks for the season opener on Sept. 4, featuring a prop bet on DeVonta Smith.

Cowboys vs. Eagles picks

Best bet: Over 47 points (-114)

I believe this will be closer than most people think.

Last year, Dallas scored a combined 13 points in two games against Philadelphia. Is that horrible? Yes. But Cooper Rush started both games, effectively tying one hand behind the back of then-offensive-coordinator (and now head coach) Brian Schottenheimer.

With Dak Prescott fully healthy and George Pickens lining up opposite Cee Dee Lamb, I expect Dallas to put up some points.

Philadelphia ranked in the top three in scoring defence, total defence, and defensive EPA per play (per RBSDM.com), so things won’t come easy.

However, the Prescott-led Cowboys have averaged 30.0 PPG against the Eagles since the start of the 2022 season. In those three games, the over on this total is 2-1 with one 46-point game.

And we all know what Philadelphia’s offence can do.

Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley and Smith are no joke, and they line up behind arguably the best offensive line in football.

Dallas’ defence was sieve-like last season, and it’s now missing All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons for good. I see this being a blow-for-blow shootout to ring in the season.

Key stat: Dallas had the fifth-best overs rate (11-6) last season.

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Thursday Night Football prop pick

Smith over 56.5 receiving yards (-113): Smith has always been the No. 2 option in Philadelphia, but this line seems a tad disrespectful.

The speedy wideout averaged 64.7 receiving yards in the regular season last year and went off for 120 yards the last time he played the Cowboys.

In his last five games against Dallas, Smith is 3-2 against this line while averaging 74.2 yards.

The Cowboys allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game to WRs in 2024, per Pro Football Reference.

At the risk of stating the obvious, losing Parsons is a massive blow to Dallas’ pass rush. His absence should give Smith more time to get open, allowing Hurts to find him for large chunk plays.

Moreover, three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark, who was part of the trade package for Parsons, is a definite upgrade in Dallas’ trenches.

Philly will still be able to run the ball, but it should skew to a more pass-heavy attack, given those significant lineup changes.

Cowboys vs. Eagles picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 09/01/2025.

Chiefs vs. Chargers Week 1 picks: Prop predictions on Isiah Pacheco, Keenan Allen for Friday’s game in Brazil

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers open their seasons with a Friday night showdown in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

The pregame narrative: Kansas City fell short of a historic three-peat last season but is still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs are modest 3-point favourites as of Monday afternoon against a Chargers team looking to build on Jim Harbaugh’s successful maiden coaching campaign.

Check out my Chiefs vs. Chargers picks for the game on Sept. 5, featuring prop bets on Isiah Pacheco and Keenan Allen.

Chiefs vs. Chargers picks

Best bet: Pacheco over 64.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)

I’m of the mind that we can throw Pacheco’s 2024 season out of the window.

The running back suffered a fractured fibula in Week 2 and never regained his starting role after that, slipping into a timeshare with veteran Kareem Hunt upon his return in Week 13. But take a look at what he did in the two weeks before the injury:

Week 1 vs. BAL: 45 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards
Week 2 vs. CIN: 90 rushing yards, 21 receiving yards

And the year before that? Pacheco averaged 66.8 rushing yards and 17.4 receiving yards per game as a sophomore.

He went 9-5 against this line and had a healthy 60% snap share.

Assuming Pacheco is fully healthy for this season, and all reports indicate he is, this line should be a laugher. I don’t care how good Los Angeles’ defence is; Pacheco is a bell-cow back who can catch and should be fed early and often.

Also, Pacheco logged 61 scrimmage yards with a 46% snap share in his Week 14 matchup with the Chargers last season.

Key stat: Pacheco was 15-5 against this line from the start of the 2023 season up until his injury in Week 2 last year (playoffs included).

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NFL Brazil game prop pick

Allen over 3.5 receptions (-113): You might be reading this thinking: “Wait, since when is Allen back on the Chargers?”

I wouldn’t blame you for that one, as the veteran joined camp less than a month ago on a one-year “prove-it” deal.

But I don’t think the 33-year-old is washed, and I believe he’ll slide in as a solid No. 2 behind sophomore Ladd McConkey, especially with Quentin Johnston (concussion) possibly sidelined.

Allen earned 121 targets in a deep Chicago Bears receiving room last year, is sure-handed (he only had six drops all year), and can still create a good amount of separation at the line.

His familiarity with Herbert will certainly be a boost, too.

Allen had three-plus receptions in 14 of 15 games last year, going 10-5 against this line.

Chiefs vs. Chargers picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 09/01/2025.

Braves vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball best bet: Bet on Hurston Waldrep to keep dealing

The Philadelphia Phillies look to close out a four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Atlanta Braves have gotten great pitching out of their last two starters, despite losing a pair of one-run games. Now, the Braves turn to rookie sensation Hurston Waldrep, who will test his mettle against an elite offence. Philly counters with southpaw Jesus Luzardo.

Check out my Braves vs. Phillies best bet for Aug. 31

Braves vs. Phillies best bet

Best Bet: Waldrep over 15.5 outs (+102)

Braves fans haven’t had much to cheer about this season, but at least Waldrep has been a great story.

The 2023 No. 24 overall pick is 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA across five starts since his MLB debut on Aug. 2. He hasn’t faced an offence like Philadelphia’s yet, but those kinds of results are undeniable.

Aug. 2 vs. CIN: 5.2 IP, 1 ER
Aug. 9 vs. MIA: 6.0 IP, 1 ER
Aug. 15 vs. CLE: 6.0 IP, 0 ER
Aug. 20 vs. CWS: 7,0 IP, 0 ER
Aug. 26 vs. MIA: 5.1 IP, 1 ER

Before joining the big leagues, Waldrep closed out his minor league career on a tear, posting a 1.99 ERA across seven starts.

Waldrep doesn’t overpower batters, but instead deploys a five-pitch mix with variety and precision. Given that this is the Phillies’ first time seeing the 23-year-old, I’ll give the edge to the pitcher.

Also, the Braves used six relievers in yesterday’s extra-innings loss, so it would be nice to get a little length out of the young gun.

Key stat: Waldrep is averaging 18.0 outs per start.

Braves vs. Phillies best bet made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 08/31/2025.

Braves vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Bet on Hurston Waldrep to keep dealing

The Philadelphia Phillies look to close out a four-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Atlanta Braves have gotten great pitching out of their last two starters, despite losing a pair of one-run games. Now, the Braves turn to rookie sensation Hurston Waldrep, who will test his mettle against an elite offence. Philly counters with southpaw Jesus Luzardo.

Check out my Braves vs. Phillies prop bets, featuring a prop bet on Marcell Ozuna.

Braves vs. Phillies prop bets

Best Bet: Waldrep over 15.5 outs (+102)

Braves fans haven’t had much to cheer about this season, but at least Waldrep has been a great story.

The 2023 No. 24 overall pick is 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA across five starts since his MLB debut on Aug. 2. He hasn’t faced an offence like Philadelphia’s yet, but those kinds of results are undeniable.

Aug. 2 vs. CIN: 5.2 IP, 1 ER
Aug. 9 vs. MIA: 6.0 IP, 1 ER
Aug. 15 vs. CLE: 6.0 IP, 0 ER
Aug. 20 vs. CWS: 7,0 IP, 0 ER
Aug. 26 vs. MIA: 5.1 IP, 1 ER

Before joining the big leagues, Waldrep closed out his minor league career on a tear, posting a 1.99 ERA across seven starts.

Waldrep doesn’t overpower batters, but instead deploys a five-pitch mix with variety and precision. Given that this is the Phillies’ first time seeing the 23-year-old, I’ll give the edge to the pitcher.

Also, the Braves used six relievers in yesterday’s extra-innings loss, so it would be nice to get a little length out of the young gun.

Key stat: Waldrep is averaging 18.0 outs per start.

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Best MLB pick

Ozuna over 1.5 bases (+150): Ozuna, like most of Atlanta’s roster, has been poor this season.

But the 34-year-old still has some pop in his bat, launching 20 home runs with eight of his 13 hits this month going for extra bases.

He also has a great history against Luzardo, going 6-for-16 with a double and a home run. His .344 xBA and .694 xSLG in those at-bats tell me those results weren’t luck-driven, either.

Luzardo has also been a mess at home this year, posting a 4.92 ERA in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

I’ll take a flier on Ozuna to do damage at a nice +150 price tag.

Braves vs. Phillies prop bets made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 08/31/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 31: Back Sugano, Betts and Langford on Sunday

Mookie Betts headlines Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts is finding his form and has a plus matchup against Arizona Diamondbacks righty Brandon Pfaadt. I like the eight-time all-star to score and help his team avoid a sweep.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 31, featuring prop bets on Tomoyuki Sugano and Wyatt Langford.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts to score (-134)

Betts was catching plenty of flak for his production, or lack thereof, heading into the all-star break.

He was batting .244 with a sub-.700 OPS and ranked outside of the top 170 in ISO and wRC+. The veteran is slowly figuring things out in July, with a .280/.353/.400 slash line.

Those numbers aren’t great, but they’re definitely an improvement.

Betts shouldn’t have a hard time getting aboard against Pfaadt, who sports an unsightly 5.24 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. If you think that’s bad, the D-backs’ righty is actually out-performing based on his expected metrics (5.76 xERA, .300 xBA).

Los Angeles has demolished Pfaadt over a pretty substantial sample size, too.

The Dodgers are batting a collective .289 against the righty in 104 plate appearances with a .322 xBA and .635 xSLG.

Key stat: Betts has reached base in 9-of-19 at-bats vs. Pfaadt (.473 OBP) and has hit two home runs against him this year.

Best MLB picks

Sugano over 3.5 strikeouts (-120): Sugano is having a dreadful first MLB season after coming over from Japan, but he’s finally begun to turn things around.

Over his last six starts, the three-time NBP Central League MVP has a 2.62 ERA and is 4-2 against this line.

Sugano most recently fanned six Boston Red Sox and now gets to pitch against the San Francisco Giants, who have been one of MLB’s worst teams since the trade deadline.

San Fran has the sixth-highest K rate over the last 30 days. If Sugano works five-plus innings, as he’s done in six straight, this should be a breeze.

Langford over 1.5 bases (+105): A lot is working in Langford’s favour during today’s matchup against the Athletics.

Langford is 5-for-7 against Athletics starter J.T. Ginn.

Ginn has a 7.17 ERA this month and a 6.48 ERA at home.

Sutter Health Park, the A’s temporary home venue, is the second-most hitter-friendly park in MLB, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors.

Langford is also on a heater this month, batting .297 with a .972 OPS. All signs point to another big night for the sophomore outfielder.

MLB prop picks made at 11:22 a.m. ET on 08/31/2025.