We’re into crunch time at Flushing Meadows with the quarterfinals beginning on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Taylor Fritz is the last American male standing in the U.S. Open and will have to get past Novak Djokovic to stay alive. The Serbian legend has a 10-0 record against Fritz and is favoured in this matchup.
Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the quarterfinal, featuring a pick on Jiri Lehecka vs. Carlos Alcaraz.
US Open picks: Quarterfinal
Best Bet: Djokovic -1.5 sets (+105)
Fritz is arguably playing the best tennis of his life, but will it be enough to beat Djokovic?
I don’t think so.
Admittedly, I was worried about the 24-time Grand Slam champion’s conditioning in the early stages of this event. But Djokovic has cruised to the quarterfinal at Flushing Meadows, dropping just two sets and putting together his most complete performance in the round of 16.
Djokovic beat Jan-Lennard Struff, 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, on Sunday. He fired 12 aces to no double faults and allowed just one break-point opportunity.
Fritz is also coming off a dominant round of 16 win — over 21-seed Tomas Machac — and has also only dropped two sets in Flushing.
The American is rolling, but he’s constantly fallen short of winning the “big one.”
Carlos Alcaraz beat him in four sets in this year’s Wimbledon semifinal, and Jannik Sinner beat him in straight sets in last year’s U.S. Open final.
Those two and Djokovic are a class above the rest of the ATP Tour, and Fritz is an awful 1-17 against them (beating Sinner in 2021).
Key stat: Djokovic is 10-0 against Fritz, covering a -1.5 set spread in nine of those matches.
US Open best bets
Lehecka +7.5 games (-118): Alcaraz is in buzz-saw mode right now, reaching the quarterfinal without dropping a single set, while only being broken once.
But I feel like Lehecka can give him some trouble. Why? First off, the Czech has had success against Alcaraz this year:
- February (ATP Qatar Open): 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win
- June (Queen’s Club Championships): 7-5, 6-7, 6-2 loss
Yes, I consider a three-set loss to Alcaraz on grass a “success,” and so should you.
I was debating backing Lehecka +2.5 sets at +108, but this feels safer to me. Even a 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 win for Alcaraz would get this done.
Lehecka is 9-3 since the North American summer hard-court swing began, with losses to Fritz, Ben Shelton and Alex de Minaur.
Those are all top-10 ranked players, and Lehecka never lost a set to any of them without securing at least four games.
US Open picks made at 2:32 p.m. on 09/01/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.