Spots in the U.S. Open quarterfinals are up for grabs on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: At the time of writing, Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz are the last American men standing at Flushing Meadows. And with Paul playing on Saturday, it could be all up to Fritz by the time his match against Tomas Machac begins the following day.
Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the round of 16, featuring a pick on Aryna Sabalenka vs. Cristina Bucsa.
US Open picks: Round of 16
Best bet: Fritz -1.5 sets (-120)
I’m loving the value on Fritz, who will have the whole crowd behind him on Sunday.
The American was a finalist at the U.S. Open last year and covered this spread in all five matches leading up to his semi-final duel against compatriot Frances Tiafoe, which he won in five sets.
Fritz ultimately lost to Jannik Sinner with the trophy on the line, but that’s nothing to be ashamed about — and I’d venture to say he’s improved since then.
The ATP World No. 4 has won titles in Stuttgart and Eastbourne this season, and made the semifinals at Wimbledon before losing to Carlos Alcaraz.
Overall, he’s 13-2 in his last 15 grand slam matches against players outside of the ATP’s top 10.
In those matches, he’s covered this spread 12 times (and all three times at this U.S. Open). That’s a clinical 80.0% hit rate.
Machac is a fine player, currently sitting at 21st in the world. But I can’t see him knocking off the in-form top American in front of a rowdy crowd.
Key stat: Fritz has covered this spread in eight of his last 10 U.S. Open matches.
Best women’s US Open pick for Sunday
Sabalenka vs. Bucsa under 18 games (-120): Taking the under on this line is a roundabout way of betting on a Sabalenka blowout, which we haven’t really seen yet, even though she’s won all three matches in straight sets.
The 2024 champion just beat Leylah Fernandez 6-3, 7-6 and needed a seventh game to win each of her opening sets in the matches before that.
But this seems like a good time for Sabalenka to drop the hammer.
Bucsa has never beaten a top-10 player in her career, winning an average of just 4.87 games across eight matches.
In those contests, the under on a 17.5 game total is 5-3.
US Open picks made at 1:03 p.m. on 08/30/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.