Teoscar Hernandez and Logan Gilbert headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Hernandez has a dream matchup against Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, whom he’s dominated in the past. I’m double-dipping on the slugger and also expect Gilbert to carve up a sputtering Cleveland Guardians lineup.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 30, featuring a fade on Merrill Kelly.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Hernandez over 1.5 bases (+114) & 1+ RBI (+143)
I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw Hernandez’s bases prop at plus-money.
Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ No. 5 hitter is in a rut, batting .167 over his last 10 games. But three of his six hits in that span went for extra bases, reminding us that he can cash this bet with one swing.
And now, Hernandez gets a pitcher he’s tormented in Rodriguez:
- Hernandez is 10-for-23 against Rodriguez with three doubles and three home runs (1.043 SLG).
- Rodriguez has a 5.67 ERA this year and has allowed a .316 OBA on the road.
- Hernandez is slashing .303/.340/.584 vs. LHPs this season.
The main issue with this wager is Rodriguez’s underlying metrics. He walks batters at an above-average rate and does well to suppress hard contact (88th percentile hard-hit rate).
But Hernandez rarely walks, is a free swinger, and clearly has Rodriguez’s number.
Batting behind names like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman makes him an excellent choice to record an RBI, too.
Key stat: Hernandez’s .281 ISO vs. LHP ranks 16th in MLB.
Best MLB picks
Gilbert over 6.5 Ks (-136): I don’t love this price point, but Gilbert is one of the league’s best swing-and-miss arms, if not the best, so it’s understandable.
- Gilbert raised his season-long K/9 rate to 12.7 after fanning 13 Athletics in his last time out.
- That K/9 rate would top MLB by one full strikeout had he pitched enough innings to qualify.
- The fireballing righty has a 98th percentile K rate (34.7%) and 94th percentile whiff rate (33.4%).
Everything points to another monster outing tonight.
Cleveland has the eighth-highest K rate vs. RHP since the all-star break (23.3%), and the wind is blowing in at the pitcher-friendly Progressive Field.
Gilbert has at least six Ks in seven of his last eight starts (5-3 vs. this line). He should work deep enough into this game to clear this total.
Kelly under 17.5 outs (-104): Kelly has been productive since joining the Texas Rangers at the trade deadline, sporting a 3.10 ERA and clearing this line in three of five starts.
So, why fade him?
Well, Kelly has to go up against a sneakily productive Athletics lineup, which has been raking since the all-star break (third in ISO, sixth in wRC+, seventh in BA).
He’s also pitching at Sutter Health Park, the A’s temporary home venue, which has proven to be a hitters’ paradise.
Moreover, only two Rangers relievers have pitched since Wednesday, meaning they should have the majority of the bullpen available tonight.
MLB prop picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 08/30/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.