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FIFA World Cup European qualifier predictions Sept. 9: Fade England against Serbia, back France’s Bradley Barcola to produce

The final round of September’s FIFA World Cup European qualifiers will play out on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: England has been undefeated so far in Group K but faces a tough road test against Serbia. I expect the hosts to pull out a result, and I am also backing France’s Bradley Barcola to log a goal contribution against Iceland.

Check out my FIFA World Cup qualifier predictions for the European soccer matches on Sept. 9, 2025.

World Cup qualifier predictions

Best bet: Serbia to win or tie (+110)

England has been spotless in its bid for a World Cup spot so far.

The Three Lions are undefeated through four contests, scoring 12 times without conceding a goal. But that was largely expected against Albania, Latvia and Andorra (twice).

Now, Thomas Tuchel’s group faces a tougher task: Winning on the road in front of a raucous Serbian crowd.

Serbia is also unbeaten, sporting a 2-0-1 record without conceding a goal.

Harry Kane headlines England’s attack, but he’s missing plenty of starpower up front. Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer and Jude Bellingham are all out with injuries.

That trio has combined for 20 goals and brings an entirely different dynamic to the squad when healthy.

When these teams met at the European Cup last summer, England barely squeaked out a 1-0 win on neutral ground with a full squad. The Serbians were practically level on possession and out-shot the English, 6-5.

Key stat: Serbia is on a seven-game unbeaten run at home, forcing draws against European powerhouses Spain and Denmark.

European soccer betting markets

European soccer picks

Barcola to score or assist (-130): There’s no such thing as a sure thing in sports, but it would be a shock if Iceland put up a fight against France in Paris on Tuesday.

Les Bleus are -835 to win and are -200 to score three-plus goals.

I’m looking for value on France’s offence, and I believe Barcola is the man to target.

The 23-year-old superstar has 26 goal contributions in 31 starts for club and country this year. He logged an assist in Friday’s qualifier against Ukraine.

Playing alongside Kylian Mbappe never hurts, and I expect Barcola to have an outsized role in the attack with Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue out with injuries.

World Cup qualifier predictions made at 12:05 p.m. on 09/08/2025.

Vikings vs. Bears MNF Week 1 TD picks: Back Aaron Jones and Rome Odunze to find pay dirt

NFL fans are treated to a divisional rivalry to close out Week 1, as the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: J.J. McCarthy makes his first start for the shorthanded Vikings, who are missing star wide receiver Jordan Addison (suspension). Minnesota should lean heavily on its ground game against a Bears team that allowed the fifth-most rushing yards last year.

Check out my top Vikings vs. Bears Week 1 TD picks, featuring Aaron Jones and Rome Odunze.

Vikings vs. Bears TD picks: Week 1

Best Bet: Jones anytime TD (+160)

The risk here is that the newly acquired Jordan Mason could vulture red zone looks from Jones.

But I think the 30-year-old veteran has earned the right to those snaps, at least right off the bat. Jones set career-highs in carries (255), touches (306) and rushing yards (1,138) last season for the Vikings.

He scored seven touchdowns and found the end zone in both games against the Bears.

Kevin O’Connell is one of the great offensive minds in football, and he should find a way to get Minnesota into the red zone early and often.

Chicago’s defence was a disaster down the stretch last season, ceding 26.1 points per game in its final seven games. And that average was significantly reduced by a 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17.

The Vikings dropped 30 points on the Bears twice in that span, rushing for a total of 238 yards at 4.25 yards/rush.

Key stat: Jones has 13 touchdowns in 15 career games against Chicago.

Monday Night Football TD picks

Odunze anytime TD (+200): Odunze is coming off a decent rookie season with the dysfunctional Bears, totalling 734 yards and three touchdowns.

But I’m expecting much bigger things for the 2024 No. 9 overall pick with Ben Johnson at the helm.

The first-year head coach was the brains behind Detroit’s No. 1 scoring offence last season, and it looked like the Lions desperately missed him on Sunday as they got decimated by the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Johnson should be itching to utilize Odunze’s talents to help turn the Bears around.

The 6-foot-3 wideout ranked top-15 in the NFL in targeted air yards (1,438), deep targets (23), and red-zone targets (18), according to Player Profiler.

That didn’t lend itself to a ton of production, but the Bears seldom had a solid game plan. I think this is worth a bite at 2-to-1 odds.

Vikings vs. Bears TD picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

Vikings vs. Bears MNF Week 1 TD picks: Back Aaron Jones and Rome Odunze to find pay dirt

NFL fans are treated to a divisional rivalry to close out Week 1, as the Chicago Bears host the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: J.J. McCarthy makes his first start for the shorthanded Vikings, who are missing star wide receiver Jordan Addison (suspension). Minnesota should lean heavily on its ground game against a Bears team that allowed the fifth-most rushing yards last year.

Check out my top Vikings vs. Bears Week 1 TD picks, featuring Aaron Jones and Rome Odunze.

Vikings vs. Bears TD picks: Week 1

Best Bet: Jones anytime TD (+145)

The risk here is that the newly acquired Jordan Mason could vulture red zone looks from Jones.

But I think the 30-year-old veteran has earned the right to those snaps, at least right off the bat. Jones set career-highs in carries (255), touches (306) and rushing yards (1,138) last season for the Vikings.

He scored seven touchdowns and found the end zone in both games against the Bears.

Kevin O’Connell is one of the great offensive minds in football, and he should find a way to get Minnesota into the red zone early and often.

Chicago’s defence was a disaster down the stretch last season, ceding 26.1 points per game in its final seven games. And that average was significantly reduced by a 6-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17.

The Vikings dropped 30 points on the Bears twice in that span, rushing for a total of 238 yards at 4.25 yards/rush.

Key stat: Jones has 13 touchdowns in 15 career games against Chicago.

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Monday Night Football TD picks

Odunze anytime TD (+205): Odunze is coming off a decent rookie season with the dysfunctional Bears, totalling 734 yards and three touchdowns.

But I’m expecting much bigger things for the 2024 No. 9 overall pick with Ben Johnson at the helm.

The first-year head coach was the brains behind Detroit’s No. 1 scoring offence last season, and it looked like the Lions desperately missed him on Sunday as they got decimated by the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Johnson should be itching to utilize Odunze’s talents to help turn the Bears around.

The 6-foot-3 wideout ranked top-15 in the NFL in targeted air yards (1,438), deep targets (23), and red-zone targets (18), according to Player Profiler.

That didn’t lend itself to a ton of production, but the Bears seldom had a solid game plan. I think this is worth a bite at 2-to-1 odds.

Vikings vs. Bears TD picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

Steelers vs. Jets Week 1 SGP predictions: Back Pittsburgh in Aaron Rodgers’ debut at +330

All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers this Sunday, who debuts for the Pittsburgh Steelers against his old team, the New York Jets.

The pregame narrative: Rodgers’ stint in the Meadowlands was an unmitigated disaster. The four-time MVP looks to turn a new leaf with Pittsburgh and has a chance to stick it to New York right off the bat. The Steelers are field-goal favourites in a game with the lowest total (38) on Sunday’s slate.

Check out my Steelers vs. Jets +330 same-game parlay predictions for Week 1, featuring T.J. Watt and Breece Hall.

Steelers vs. Jets SGP predictions

SGP: Steelers moneyline | Watt to record a sack | Hall 20+ receiving yards (+330)

Steelers moneyline (-152): This game should be a slog, and I believe Pittsburgh’s experience and defensive talent will win out.

Mike Tomlin and Rodgers are both Hall-of-Fame-bound, and you can’t say the same about Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields.

I don’t want to discredit the pair. Glenn did great things in Detroit, and Fields flashed his ceiling at points with Pittsburgh last year. But this is a tough landing spot for a rookie head coach and a journeyman quarterback.

In my opinion, Rodgers will simply have to take care of the football and execute and let Pittsburgh’s defence do the rest.

The Steelers are fully healthy on that side of the ball, with Watt leading a dynamic pass rush and Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey revamping the secondary.

Pittsburgh is 4-1 in its last five season openers, beating teams like the Joe Burrow-led Bengals and Josh Allen-led Bills.

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Friday night SGP picks

Watt to record a sack (-190): The main reason Pittsburgh’s defence excels year after year is Watt.

He has 58.5 sacks since the start of his 2021 Defensive Player of the Year campaign, equating to just shy of one per game (59 GP).

Fields should have trouble finding his receivers against the Steelers’ secondary, and he loves to use his legs to extend plays. That will lead to some positive scrambles, but will also lead to some sacks.

The Jets ranked 23rd in pass block win rate last year (57%). This is a no-brainer addition for me.

Hall 20+ receiving yards (-110): Finally, let’s look at a Jets prop to nearly double our wager from +125 to +330.

Hall ranked fourth in RB receptions last year, hauling in 57 for 483 yards across 16 games. That 30.2 average is well above what this prop asks.

Pittsburgh’s defence is elite, but that should mean more checkdown opportunities as Fields faces pressure.

Hall caught six of nine passes for 103 receiving yards in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh last season.

Steelers vs. Jets predictions made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 09/06/2025.

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Ravens vs. Bills Week 1 Sunday Night Football picks: Fade Buffalo, back Derrick Henry in primetime

The first NFL Sunday of the season saves its best matchup for last, when the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens in primetime.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo went unbeaten at Highmark Stadium in 2024 and eliminated Baltimore from the playoffs. Yet it’s the Ravens who are a slim 1-point favourite as of Friday afternoon. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen won the last two MVPs, and they’re why this game has the highest total (50.5) of the week.

Check out my Ravens vs. Bills picks for the season opener on Sept. 7, featuring a prop bet on Derrick Henry.

Ravens vs. Bills picks

Best bet: Henry over 78.5 rushing yards (-118)

It’s no secret that the key to Baltimore’s offence is the run game.

Henry is a generational battering ram, and Jackson is one of the most elusive QBs to ever step on the field. Running an RPO with them is nearly unstoppable, and Todd Monken will want to establish that early.

Baltimore struggled to do that in the first half of the divisional round last year, but eventually got in a groove as the game went on. Henry finished with 84 yards on 16 carries and should have an outsized role on Sunday.

The RB averaged 113 yards on 19.1 carries last year — good for an NFL-best 5.9 yards per attempt.

Henry’s best game of the regular season came against Buffalo in Week 4, when he logged 199 yards on 24 attempts (8.3) in a beatdown of epic proportions.

The Bills’ run defence was suspect at times last season, giving up the eighth-most yards per carry (4.6). Its overall rushing yards against were low, but that’s simply because most teams were playing from behind against their high-flying offence.

The Ravens’ defence is elite (more on that later), so I can’t see them straying from its game plan.

Key stat: Henry cleared this mark in 14 of 19 games last season.

Sunday Night Football prop pick

Bills under 25.5 points (-125): Is there a chance I look like a fool for fading Allen and Co. at home? Yes, but I just think Baltimore’s defence is that good.

The Ravens rank top 10 in scoring and total defence in 2024, and had the third-best defensive EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.

Allen will likely have to throw it to put up points, which he’s more than capable of, but I’m still not sold on Buffalo’s receiving corps of Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.

In their first meeting last year, Buffalo’s offence was non-existent in a 35-10 loss. And in the postseason, 10 of the Bills’ 27 points came off turnovers.

Jackson and Henry typically have elite ball security, with the former combining for just five turnovers last season. If they don’t gift the opposition points and can stick to a run-heavy game plan, I like Buffalo’s chances of staying under this mark.

Ravens vs. Bills picks made at 1:21 p.m. ET 09/05/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 6: Back Waldrep, Bader and Langeliers on Saturday

Rookie sensation Hurston Waldrep and Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Bader has been on a tear since joining the Phillies at the trade deadline, while Waldrep has been nearly untouchable over six starts as a rookie. Both have plus-money value to do damage today.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 6, featuring a pick on Athletics slugger Shea Langeliers.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bader to record an RBI (+185)

Bader has been quite the get for Philadelphia, adding more firepower to an already loaded roster ahead of what should be a deep playoff run.

Check out what the outfielder has done for the Phillies since he was acquired at the trade deadline:

.304/.375/.500 slash line
.382/.452/.673 slash line vs. RHP
52% hard-hit rate

Bader is slated to hit sixth for Philadelphia today behind names like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. That’s an elite spot for run production

Today, the Phillies take on Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins, and I think things could get ugly.

Philadelphia’s current lineup is batting .304 against Alcantara in a massive 286 at-bat sample. Alcantara is also having the worst year of his professional career, with a 5.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

The righty gave up six runs in 2.0 IP when he played the Phillies earlier this year.

Key stat: Bader has four RBI during his five-game hitting streak.

Best MLB picks

Waldrep over 4.5 Ks (-150): Waldrep owned a sparkling 0.90 ERA through five MLB starts, completely shutting down some below-average teams while going 3-2 against this line.

Then came his true test of mettle: A Sunday Night Baseball showdown against the Phillies.

The Atlanta Braves righty answered the bell, striking out nine and allowing just one run in 5.2 IP. This kid is the real deal, and he should have no trouble mowing down the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle has had a top-10 K rate over the season, in the last 30 days, and against right-handers.

The Mariners rank 29th in batting average and 20th in wRC+ since the all-star break, so I trust Waldrep to work deep into this outing.

He threw a career-high 102 pitches his last time out.

Langeliers to score (-118): This price seems too good to be true for the Athletics’ leadoff man.

Langeliers is batting .297 with a 1.038 OPS when hitting first, and he has destroyed left-handed pitching all season.

He owns a .360/.370/.663 slash line against southpaws, and gets a struggling one in Los Angeles Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi.

Kikuchi has a 5.97 ERA in six starts since Aug. 1.

Langeliers has taken the southpaw deep before, and will have plenty of chances to get aboard in front of a sneaky-good offence.

The A’s are 11th in wRC+ and sixth in ISO this season.

MLB prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 6: Back Waldrep, Bader and Langeliers on Saturday

Rookie sensation Hurston Waldrep and Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Harrison Bader headline Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Bader has been on a tear since joining the Phillies at the trade deadline, while Waldrep has been nearly untouchable over six starts as a rookie. Both have plus-money value to do damage today.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 6, featuring a pick on Athletics slugger Shea Langeliers.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bader to record an RBI (+188)

Bader has been quite the get for Philadelphia, adding more firepower to an already loaded roster ahead of what should be a deep playoff run.

Check out what the outfielder has done for the Phillies since he was acquired at the trade deadline:

.304/.375/.500 slash line
.382/.452/.673 slash line vs. RHP
52% hard-hit rate

Bader is slated to hit sixth for Philadelphia today behind names like Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. That’s an elite spot for run production

Today, the Phillies take on Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins, and I think things could get ugly.

Philadelphia’s current lineup is batting .304 against Alcantara in a massive 286 at-bat sample. Alcantara is also having the worst year of his professional career, with a 5.66 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

The righty gave up six runs in 2.0 IP when he played the Phillies earlier this year.

Key stat: Bader has four RBI during his five-game hitting streak.

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Best MLB picks

Waldrep over 5.5 Ks (+143): Waldrep owned a sparkling 0.90 ERA through five MLB starts, completely shutting down some below-average teams while going 3-2 against this line.

Then came his true test of mettle: A Sunday Night Baseball showdown against the Phillies.

The Atlanta Braves righty answered the bell, striking out nine and allowing just one run in 5.2 IP. This kid is the real deal, and he should have no trouble mowing down the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle has had a top-10 K rate over the season, in the last 30 days, and against right-handers.

The Mariners rank 29th in batting average and 20th in wRC+ since the all-star break, so I trust Waldrep to work deep into this outing.

He threw a career-high 102 pitches his last time out.

Langeliers to score (-117): This price seems too good to be true for the Athletics’ leadoff man.

Langeliers is batting .297 with a 1.038 OPS when hitting first, and he has destroyed left-handed pitching all season.

He owns a .360/.370/.663 slash line against southpaws, and gets a struggling one in Los Angeles Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi.

Kikuchi has a 5.97 ERA in six starts since Aug. 1.

Langeliers has taken the southpaw deep before, and will have plenty of chances to get aboard in front of a sneaky-good offence.

The A’s are 11th in wRC+ and sixth in ISO this season.

MLB prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees best bets Sept. 6: Back New York’s offence, Aaron Judge on Saturday

Saturday’s matinee between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees should feature fireworks.

The pregame narrative: Toronto extended its AL East lead to four with a convincing win in yesterday’s series opener. But New York is favoured today with 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, pitching. Chris Bassitt, who has struggled against the Yankees and on the road, gets the ball for the Blue Jays.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Yankees for Sept. 6, featuring Aaron Judge and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Yankees

Best bet: Yankees over 4.5 runs (-150)

This isn’t a “must-win” game for New York’s divisional hopes, but it’s pretty close.

The Yankees’ offence is capable of putting up huge numbers, and I expect it to rebound after yesterday’s embarrassing 7-1 loss at home.

New York leads MLB in runs per game (5.26).

Before Friday, the Yankees were 10-1 against this line in their last 11 games. They averaged 7.45 runs per game in those contests.

Since the all-star break, New York is top eight in wRC+, OPS and SLG and first in ISO.

I don’t expect Bassitt to keep this group in check at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Toronto’s righty is coming off a quality start on the road in Cincinnati (6.0 IP, 2 ER), but his numbers away from Rogers Centre are still concerning. In 13 starts, he has a 5.82 ERA and a .288 opponent batting average.

On top of that, this Yankees lineup has had his number.

Key stat: New York is batting .285 and slugging .517 against Bassitt in 151 combined at-bats.

Jays prop picks

Judge over 1.5 bases (-112): I took this wager yesterday, and it fell flat when Judge went 1-for-3 with a single.

The AL MVP frontrunner is now slashing .245/.417/.469 since Aug. 1. He’s still getting on base a ton, but the batting average is way down, and so is his power.

Nonetheless, Judge still leads MLB in all three slash categories, ISO, and total bases per game.

He’s going to break out of this rut sooner than later, and Bassitt should be a great slump-buster. The righty doesn’t walk a ton of batters — a plus for this prop — and has a 38th percentile xBA.

Judge is 6-for-21 against Bassitt with two home runs.

Varsho over 0.5 RBI (+115): Toronto’s offence should get its licks in, too, and Varsho has solid value to record an RBI.

He’s slated to hit fifth for the Jays, according to RotoWire, behind George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

That trio has been on fire in the second half and Varsho has capitalized on that with an RBI in four straight games and seven of his last nine.

He’s also slashing an absurd .260/.309/.712 against RHP this year.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:49 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees best bets Sept. 6: Back New York’s offence, Aaron Judge on Saturday

Saturday’s matinee between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees should feature fireworks.

The pregame narrative: Toronto extended its AL East lead to four with a convincing win in yesterday’s series opener. But New York is favoured today with 2024 AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil, pitching. Chris Bassitt, who has struggled against the Yankees and on the road, gets the ball for the Blue Jays.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Yankees for Sept. 6, featuring Aaron Judge and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Yankees

Best bet: Yankees over 4.5 runs (-141)

This isn’t a “must-win” game for New York’s divisional hopes, but it’s pretty close.

The Yankees’ offence is capable of putting up huge numbers, and I expect it to rebound after yesterday’s embarrassing 7-1 loss at home.

New York leads MLB in runs per game (5.26).

Before Friday, the Yankees were 10-1 against this line in their last 11 games. They averaged 7.45 runs per game in those contests.

Since the all-star break, New York is top eight in wRC+, OPS and SLG and first in ISO.

I don’t expect Bassitt to keep this group in check at the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Toronto’s righty is coming off a quality start on the road in Cincinnati (6.0 IP, 2 ER), but his numbers away from Rogers Centre are still concerning. In 13 starts, he has a 5.82 ERA and a .288 opponent batting average.

On top of that, this Yankees lineup has had his number.

Key stat: New York is batting .285 and slugging .517 against Bassitt in 151 combined at-bats.

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Jays prop picks

Judge over 1.5 bases (-115): I took this wager yesterday, and it fell flat when Judge went 1-for-3 with a single.

The AL MVP frontrunner is now slashing .245/.417/.469 since Aug. 1. He’s still getting on base a ton, but the batting average is way down, and so is his power.

Nonetheless, Judge still leads MLB in all three slash categories, ISO, and total bases per game.

He’s going to break out of this rut sooner than later, and Bassitt should be a great slump-buster. The righty doesn’t walk a ton of batters — a plus for this prop — and has a 38th percentile xBA.

Judge is 6-for-21 against Bassitt with two home runs.

Varsho over 0.5 RBI (+135): Toronto’s offence should get its licks in, too, and Varsho has solid value to record an RBI.

He’s slated to hit fifth for the Jays, according to RotoWire, behind George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

That trio has been on fire in the second half and Varsho has capitalized on that with an RBI in four straight games and seven of his last nine.

He’s also slashing an absurd .260/.309/.712 against RHP this year.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:49 a.m. ET on 09/06/2025.

Ravens vs. Bills Week 1 Sunday Night Football picks: Fade Buffalo, back Derrick Henry in primetime

The first NFL Sunday of the season saves its best matchup for last, when the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens in primetime.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo went unbeaten at Highmark Stadium in 2024 and eliminated Baltimore from the playoffs. Yet it’s the Ravens who are a slim 1-point favourite as of Friday afternoon. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen won the last two MVPs, and they’re why this game has the highest total (50.5) of the week.

Check out my Ravens vs. Bills picks for the season opener on Sept. 7, featuring a prop bet on Derrick Henry.

Ravens vs. Bills picks

Best bet: Henry over 83.5 rushing yards (-113)

It’s no secret that the key to Baltimore’s offence is the run game.

Henry is a generational battering ram, and Jackson is one of the most elusive QBs to ever step on the field. Running an RPO with them is nearly unstoppable, and Todd Monken will want to establish that early.

Baltimore struggled to do that in the first half of the divisional round last year, but eventually got in a groove as the game went on. Henry finished with 84 yards on 16 carries and should have an outsized role on Sunday.

The RB averaged 113 yards on 19.1 carries last year — good for an NFL-best 5.9 yards per attempt.

Henry’s best game of the regular season came against Buffalo in Week 4, when he logged 199 yards on 24 attempts (8.3) in a beatdown of epic proportions.

The Bills’ run defence was suspect at times last season, giving up the eighth-most yards per carry (4.6). Its overall rushing yards against were low, but that’s simply because most teams were playing from behind against their high-flying offence.

The Ravens’ defence is elite (more on that later), so I can’t see them straying from its game plan.

Key stat: Henry cleared this mark in 13 of 19 games last season.

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Sunday Night Football prop pick

Bills under 24.5 points (-109): Is there a chance I look like a fool for fading Allen and Co. at home? Yes, but I just think Baltimore’s defence is that good.

The Ravens rank top 10 in scoring and total defence in 2024, and had the third-best defensive EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.

Allen will likely have to throw it to put up points, which he’s more than capable of, but I’m still not sold on Buffalo’s receiving corps of Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.

In their first meeting last year, Buffalo’s offence was non-existent in a 35-10 loss. And in the postseason, 10 of the Bills’ 27 points came off turnovers.

Jackson and Henry typically have elite ball security, with the former combining for just five turnovers last season. If they don’t gift the opposition points and can stick to a run-heavy game plan, I like Buffalo’s chances of staying under this mark.

Ravens vs. Bills picks made at 1:21 p.m. ET 09/05/2025.