The first NFL Sunday of the season saves its best matchup for last, when the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens in primetime.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo went unbeaten at Highmark Stadium in 2024 and eliminated Baltimore from the playoffs. Yet it’s the Ravens who are a slim 1-point favourite as of Friday afternoon. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen won the last two MVPs, and they’re why this game has the highest total (50.5) of the week.
Check out my Ravens vs. Bills picks for the season opener on Sept. 7, featuring a prop bet on Derrick Henry.
Ravens vs. Bills picks
Best bet: Henry over 83.5 rushing yards (-113)
It’s no secret that the key to Baltimore’s offence is the run game.
Henry is a generational battering ram, and Jackson is one of the most elusive QBs to ever step on the field. Running an RPO with them is nearly unstoppable, and Todd Monken will want to establish that early.
Baltimore struggled to do that in the first half of the divisional round last year, but eventually got in a groove as the game went on. Henry finished with 84 yards on 16 carries and should have an outsized role on Sunday.
The RB averaged 113 yards on 19.1 carries last year — good for an NFL-best 5.9 yards per attempt.
Henry’s best game of the regular season came against Buffalo in Week 4, when he logged 199 yards on 24 attempts (8.3) in a beatdown of epic proportions.
The Bills’ run defence was suspect at times last season, giving up the eighth-most yards per carry (4.6). Its overall rushing yards against were low, but that’s simply because most teams were playing from behind against their high-flying offence.
The Ravens’ defence is elite (more on that later), so I can’t see them straying from its game plan.
Key stat: Henry cleared this mark in 13 of 19 games last season.
Sunday Night Football prop pick
Bills under 24.5 points (-109): Is there a chance I look like a fool for fading Allen and Co. at home? Yes, but I just think Baltimore’s defence is that good.
The Ravens rank top 10 in scoring and total defence in 2024, and had the third-best defensive EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.
Allen will likely have to throw it to put up points, which he’s more than capable of, but I’m still not sold on Buffalo’s receiving corps of Joshua Palmer, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir.
In their first meeting last year, Buffalo’s offence was non-existent in a 35-10 loss. And in the postseason, 10 of the Bills’ 27 points came off turnovers.
Jackson and Henry typically have elite ball security, with the former combining for just five turnovers last season. If they don’t gift the opposition points and can stick to a run-heavy game plan, I like Buffalo’s chances of staying under this mark.
Ravens vs. Bills picks made at 1:21 p.m. ET 09/05/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.