Staff Writer

FIBA 2025 EuroBasket semifinal picks and predictions: Prop bets on Giannis Antetokounmpo and Dennis Schroder

Only four teams remain at the 2025 FIBA EuroBasket, with the semifinal being played out on Friday.

The pre-game narrative: Germany is heavily favoured to advance past Finland, which has advanced to the semifinal for the first time behind the superb play of Lauri Markkanen. After that, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece are in a pick’em against Turkey.

Check out my FIBA EuroBasket semifinal picks for Sept. 12, featuring Dennis Schroder.

FIBA EuroBasket picks

Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 10.5 rebounds (+105)

This line would be a laugher if it were an NBA game.

The Greek Freak averaged 11.9 rebounds last year (sixth-most), marking the seventh-straight NBA season where he tallied 11-plus boards per game.

But this isn’t the NBA, and with 10-minute quarters, there will be eight fewer minutes of gameplay.

Still, he should play enough minutes to clear this total in a tightly-contested affair. Giannis is averaging 10.0 RPG when playing north of 30 minutes in this tournament.

Turkey has Alperen Sengun as its centre, and Giannis has routinely eaten his lunch in the NBA.

Key stat: In his last five games against Sengun’s Rockets, Giannis is 4-1 against this line while averaging 15.0 RPG.

Best Finland vs. Germany bet

Schroder over 6.5 assists (-141): Schroder has been an elite facilitator at this event, dishing the sixth-most assists per game (5.9) while playing heavy minutes for Germany.

The Sacramento Kings’ guard is 3-4 against this line, but he did log a tournament-high nine assists when he played Finland — in Finland — during the group stage on Sept. 3.

Germany authored a 30-point blowout in that game, and it’s reasonable to assume the team will win by a solid margin again (as the 11.5-point spread indicates).

Schroder’s recent shooting struggles are ugly (he’s 1-for-16 from deep over his last two games), so I expect him to have a pass-first mindset on Friday.

FIBA EuroBasket picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 09/11/2025.

Champions League Matchday 1 odds, schedule and betting notes: Bayern Munich battle Chelsea, Newcastle United hosts Barcelona

The Champions League returns next week with 16 games scattered across three days.

The pre-matchday narrative: A heavyweight tilt between reigning FIFA Club World Cup champions Chelsea and German powerhouse Bayern Munich headlines the action on Wednesday. After that, Barcelona heads to St James’ Park to take on a struggling Newcastle side.

Check out the latest Champions League odds for Matchday 1 below.

Champions League odds and key fixtures

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Juventus has been great defensively since appointing Igor Tudor last season. The squad is currently on a four-game unbeaten run, picking up a 2-1 win over Dortmund in a club friendly in August.

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Liverpool made some massive splashes in the transfer window, acquiring Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, and Hugo Ekitike. The Reds were already stacked to begin with and are deserved favourites at Anfield.

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Bayern Munich averaged the second-most xG in the Champions League last year, despite bowing out in the quarterfinal. The Bavarians are unbeaten in 34 straight home games (32-2-0) in the group/league stage of the UEFA Champions League.

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Barcelona was a powerhouse last season, winning a domestic treble before losing out in a high-scoring Champions League semifinal against Inter Milan. Hansi Flick’s side averaged the most goals per game (3.1) in the UCL last year, and Newcastle is winless in its first three EPL fixtures.

UCL Matchday 1 betting lines

Athletic Bilbao (+275) vs. Arsenal (+107)
Sept. 16 12:45 p.m. ET

PSV Eindhoven (-129) vs. Union Saint-Gilloise (+340)
Sept. 16 12:45 p.m. ET

Benfica (-455) vs. Qarabag (+1,400)
Sept. 16 3:00 p.m. ET

Real Madrid (-286) vs. Marseille (+750)
Sept. 16 3:00 p.m. ET

Tottenham (-110) vs. Villarreal (+300)
Sept. 16 3:00 p.m. ET

Olympiakos (-200) vs. Pafos (+600)
Sept. 17 12:45 p.m. ET

Slavia Praha (-110) vs. Bodo Glimt (+275)
Sept. 17 12:45 p.m. ET

Ajax (+310) vs. Inter Milan (-114)
Sept. 17 3:00 p.m. ET

PSG (-250) vs. Atalanta (+700)
Sept. 17 3:00 p.m. ET

Club Brugge (+165) vs. AS Monaco (+155)
Sept. 18 12:45 p.m. ET

FC Copenhagen (+255) vs. Bayer Leverkusen (+120)
Sept. 18 12:45 p.m. ET

Eintracht Frankfurt (+110) vs. Galatasary (+230)
Sept. 18 3:00 p.m. ET

Manchester City (-141) vs. Napoli (+380)
Sept. 18 3:00 p.m. ET

Sporting Lisbon (-835) vs. Kairat Almaty (+2,500)
Sept. 18 3:00 p.m. ET

Champions League betting market

UCL odds as of 2:20 p.m. ET on 09/11/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 10: Back Teoscar Hernandez, Yordan Alvarez to go deep

Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday’s MLB home run bets.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 10.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+265)

Hernandez is a streaky hitter, and I’m hoping yesterday’s two-homer outing lights a fire.

The power bat has logged at least 25 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and is closing in on that mark again.

He’s done most of his damage against lefties and will face a bad one tonight in Kyle Freeland.

Hernandez vs. LHP: .278/.314/.536 splits, 16.2 AB/HR ratio
Hernandez vs. RHP: .234/.272/.429 splits, 20.8 AB/HR ratio

Freeland sports a 5.10 ERA and has the misfortune of playing half of his games at Coors Field. But he’s still gotten hit hard on the road (4.56 ERA, .274 OBA) and by righties (.303/.349/.493 slash line).

The southpaw ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, K rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Freeland’s one plus is that he doesn’t walk batters (88th percentile BB rate), but that’s a boon for this wager.

Key stat: Hernandez is 1-for-5 against Freeland with a home run. He has a .381 xBA and 1.364 xSLG in those at-bats.

Best HR predictions

Alvarez to hit a home run (+280): Berrios is clinging on for dear life down the stretch.

From July 1 onwards, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.8 HR/9 rate. For context, Zach Littell ranks last among qualified pitchers with a 1.9 HR/9 rate this season.

Berrios also ranks in the bottom-third percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, K rate, whiff rate and average exit velocity. Yikes.

Alvarez has seen Berrios plenty and is 3-for-16 against him with a pair of bombs. And the Houston slugger’s .289 xBA and .656 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a tad unlucky.

Both the pitcher and hitter in this matchup run reverse splits, meaning this isn’t optimized for your typical lefty-on-righty platoon advantage.

But I still like Alvarez, who is batting a blistering .516 this month, to come through.

MLB home run picks made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 10: Back Teoscar Hernandez, Yordan Alvarez to go deep

Teoscar Hernandez headlines Wednesday’s MLB home run bets.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Hernandez hit his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season last night, and is in a good spot to add to that total against a lefty at Dodger Stadium. Elsewhere, Yordan Alvarez is a strong pick to hammer a struggling Jose Berrios.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 10.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Hernandez to hit a home run (+350)

Hernandez is a streaky hitter, and I’m hoping yesterday’s two-homer outing lights a fire.

The power bat has logged at least 25 home runs in each of the last four seasons, and is closing in on that mark again.

He’s done most of his damage against lefties and will face a bad one tonight in Kyle Freeland.

Hernandez vs. LHP: .278/.314/.536 splits, 16.2 AB/HR ratio
Hernandez vs. RHP: .234/.272/.429 splits, 20.8 AB/HR ratio

Freeland sports a 5.10 ERA and has the misfortune of playing half of his games at Coors Field. But he’s still gotten hit hard on the road (4.56 ERA, .274 OBA) and by righties (.303/.349/.493 slash line).

The southpaw ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate, K rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Freeland’s one plus is that he doesn’t walk batters (88th percentile BB rate), but that’s a boon for this wager.

Key stat: Hernandez is 1-for-5 against Freeland with a home run. He has a .381 xBA and 1.364 xSLG in those at-bats.

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Best HR predictions

Alvarez to hit a home run (+350): Berrios is clinging on for dear life down the stretch.

From July 1 onwards, the Toronto Blue Jays righty has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.8 HR/9 rate. For context, Zach Littell ranks last among qualified pitchers with a 1.9 HR/9 rate this season.

Berrios also ranks in the bottom-third percentile in xERA, xBA, barrel rate, K rate, whiff rate and average exit velocity. Yikes.

Alvarez has seen Berrios plenty and is 3-for-16 against him with a pair of bombs. And the Houston slugger’s .289 xBA and .656 xSLG in those at-bats indicate he’s been a tad unlucky.

Both the pitcher and hitter in this matchup run reverse splits, meaning this isn’t optimized for your typical lefty-on-righty platoon advantage.

But I still like Alvarez, who is batting a blistering .516 this month, to come through.

MLB home run picks made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 10: Back Toronto’s offence, Addison Barger on Wednesday

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander’s last seven starts despite some horrific underlying numbers.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 10, including props on Addison Barger.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-118)

Toronto’s offence wasn’t at its best yesterday, but it still came through in the clutch.

The Jays were no-hit through five innings and ultimately finished with seven knocks and four runs, scoring the winner in extras.

I expect that momentum to carry over into a plus matchup tonight. Check out how Toronto’s offence has ranked since the all-star break:

5.81 runs per game (first)
.288 average (first)
.354 on-base percentage (first)
.487 slugging percentage (first)
133 wrC+ (first)

Yep, that’ll play.

Obviously, there is a glaring omission in the lineup with MLB’s hit leader, Bo Bichette, sidelined. He can create a boatload of offence on his own, but I still think the Jays should chase Alexander tonight.

The Astros’ righty has a 4.68 ERA on the season and has given up six home runs in his last four games. Alexander also ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Toronto is averaging 5.30 runs per game at home this year (third-most in MLB).

Jays prop pick

Barger over 1.5 bases (+125): Barger has been in a slump, but profiles as the type of bat who can get after Alexander.

The sophomore third baseman has great pop, crushes right-handed pitching, and rakes at home.

Barger ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.

He is slugging .483 against RHP and .475 at home.

Barger’s biggest flaw is that he goes down on strikes and doesn’t walk often. That’s fine by me, though, as it demonstrates he’s always looking to do damage and is unlikely to take a free pass (which wouldn’t count toward this total).

Alexander has a 30th percentile K rate and is ceding a .282/.354/.542 slash line to left-hitting batters.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 10: Back Toronto’s offence, Addison Barger on Wednesday

The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto authored a two-run, ninth-inning comeback last night to extend its AL East lead to three. The Blue Jays are slight favourites with Jose Berrios pitching opposite Jason Alexander. The Astros have won Alexander’s last seven starts despite some horrific underlying numbers.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 10, including props on Addison Barger.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-110)

Toronto’s offence wasn’t at its best yesterday, but it still came through in the clutch.

The Jays were no-hit through five innings and ultimately finished with seven knocks and four runs, scoring the winner in extras.

I expect that momentum to carry over into a plus matchup tonight. Check out how Toronto’s offence has ranked since the all-star break:

5.81 runs per game (first)
.288 average (first)
.354 on-base percentage (first)
.487 slugging percentage (first)
133 wrC+ (first)

Yep, that’ll play.

Obviously, there is a glaring omission in the lineup with MLB’s hit leader, Bo Bichette, sidelined. He can create a boatload of offence on his own, but I still think the Jays should chase Alexander tonight.

The Astros’ righty has a 4.68 ERA on the season and has given up six home runs in his last four games. Alexander also ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Toronto is averaging 5.30 runs per game at home this year (third-most in MLB).

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Jays prop pick

Barger over 1.5 bases (+143): Barger has been in a slump, but profiles as the type of bat who can get after Alexander.

The sophomore third baseman has great pop, crushes right-handed pitching, and rakes at home.

Barger ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and bat speed.

He is slugging .483 against RHP and .475 at home.

Barger’s biggest flaw is that he goes down on strikes and doesn’t walk often. That’s fine by me, though, as it demonstrates he’s always looking to do damage and is unlikely to take a free pass (which wouldn’t count toward this total).

Alexander has a 30th percentile K rate and is ceding a .282/.354/.542 slash line to left-hitting batters.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/10/2025.

NFL Week 2 upset picks: Moneyline underdog predictions on New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots

Favourites reigned supreme during the first week of NFL action, going 11-4 SU, but I’ve got my eyes on two upsets for the upcoming slate.

The pregame narrative: The San Francisco 49ers are already dealing with significant injuries, and they now head cross-country to play the Saints in New Orleans. This feels like a spot where Spencer Rattler and Co. can steal a win.

Check out my top Week 2 NFL upset picks, featuring a pick on the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins.

NFL upset picks: Week 2

Best bet: Saints moneyline (+180)

New Orleans isn’t projected to win many games this season, but I was impressed with the fight its defence put up against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1.

The Saints’ defence held Arizona to 276 yards in the game and just three points in the second half.

Outside of a 52-yard run by Trey Benson, the Cardinals put up just 94 rushing yards on 3.48 yards/carry.

New Orleans’ 28.0% defensive rush success rate was the fifth-best among all teams, per RBSDM.com.

It’s no secret San Francisco is going to want to run the ball on Sunday, but I’m skeptical it’ll be able to do that effectively.

Christian McCaffrey toted the ball 22 times for an inefficient 69 yards in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks. He’ll be asked to do more with George Kittle out and Brock Purdy (toe/shoulder) questionable.

If Purdy can’t go, backup Mac Jones will be under centre, and this line will surely move a few points in New Orleans’ direction.

Key stat: San Francisco ranked 27th in offensive EPA per rush in Week 1.

NFL underdog predictions

New England moneyline (+105): New England is barely an underdog against Miami, but it’s an underdog nonetheless.

The Dolphins will be back home in Week 2, but I can’t put any faith in a team that was just dismantled by the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts.

Miami was down 30-0 into the dying minutes of the fourth quarter before scoring a garbage-time touchdown to avoid a shutout.

It looks like the team has already quit on fourth-year head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Patriots are far from a good team, mind you. But I trust Mike Vrabel to get his group going against a divisional rival.

NFL upset picks made at 11:57 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

NFL Week 2 upset picks: Moneyline underdog predictions on New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots

Favourites reigned supreme during the first week of NFL action, going 11-4 SU, but I’ve got my eyes on two upsets for the upcoming slate.

The pregame narrative: The San Francisco 49ers are already dealing with significant injuries, and they now head cross-country to play the Saints in New Orleans. This feels like a spot where Spencer Rattler and Co. can steal a win.

Check out my top Week 2 NFL upset picks, featuring a pick on the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins.

NFL upset picks: Week 2

Best bet: Saints moneyline (+175)

New Orleans isn’t projected to win many games this season, but I was impressed with the fight its defence put up against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1.

The Saints’ defence held Arizona to 276 yards in the game and just three points in the second half.

Outside of a 52-yard run by Trey Benson, the Cardinals put up just 94 rushing yards on 3.48 yards/carry.

New Orleans’ 28.0% defensive rush success rate was the fifth-best among all teams, per RBSDM.com.

It’s no secret San Francisco is going to want to run the ball on Sunday, but I’m skeptical it’ll be able to do that effectively.

Christian McCaffrey toted the ball 22 times for an inefficient 69 yards in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks. He’ll be asked to do more with George Kittle out and Brock Purdy (toe/shoulder) questionable.

If Purdy can’t go, backup Mac Jones will be under centre, and this line will surely move a few points in New Orleans’ direction.

Key stat: San Francisco ranked 27th in offensive EPA per rush in Week 1.

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NFL underdog predictions

New England moneyline (+105): New England is barely an underdog against Miami, but it’s an underdog nonetheless.

The Dolphins will be back home in Week 2, but I can’t put any faith in a team that was just dismantled by the Daniel Jones-led Indianapolis Colts.

Miami was down 30-0 into the dying minutes of the fourth quarter before scoring a garbage-time touchdown to avoid a shutout.

It looks like the team has already quit on fourth-year head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Patriots are far from a good team, mind you. But I trust Mike Vrabel to get his group going against a divisional rival.

NFL upset picks made at 11:57 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 9: Bet on Kerry Carpenter, Rafael Devers to go deep

Kerry Carpenter and Rafael Devers headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 9.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Carpenter to hit a home run (+325)

Carpenter is an ideal man to target when the time and price are right.

The outfielder rocks right-handed pitching, rarely takes walks, and now gets to play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.

Carpenter is slugging .529 vs. RHPs this season.

He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Carpenter’s 3.9% walk rate ranks in the second percentile and should offset Warren’s wild nature.

Yankee Stadium has allowed 20% more HRs than average to left-hitting batters over the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.

Warren is having a decent sophomore season, walk issues aside, and has posted a 2.97 ERA in five starts since Aug. 1.

But he’s given up five home runs in those outings with a .285 xBA and a 54% hard-hit rate. Some regression is due, and I expect Carpenter to be all over him tonight.

Key stat: Warren ranks in the bottom-15th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Best HR predictions

Devers to hit a home run (+350): The San Francisco Giants have needed Devers at his best for their playoff push, and so far, he’s delivered.

San Fran is 12-3 in its last 15 games. In that span, Devers is slashing .333/.424/.684 with six home runs.

And since Aug. 1, he is slashing .283/.373/.583 with 12 home runs.

Tonight, Devers gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Gallen is easily having the worst season of his career, despite logging four straight quality starts. He has posted career lows in ERA (4.77), WHIP (1.28), K/9 (8.3), and HR/9 (1.4).

Lefties are slugging .445 off of Gallen, and Devers is slugging .514 off of righties.

MLB home run picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 9: Bet on Kerry Carpenter, Rafael Devers to go deep

Kerry Carpenter and Rafael Devers headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 9.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Carpenter to hit a home run (+440)

Carpenter is an ideal man to target when the time and price are right.

The outfielder rocks right-handed pitching, rarely takes walks, and now gets to play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.

Carpenter is slugging .529 vs. RHPs this season.

He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Carpenter’s 3.9% walk rate ranks in the second percentile and should offset Warren’s wild nature.

Yankee Stadium has allowed 20% more HRs than average to left-hitting batters over the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.

Warren is having a decent sophomore season, walk issues aside, and has posted a 2.97 ERA in five starts since Aug. 1.

But he’s given up five home runs in those outings with a .285 xBA and a 54% hard-hit rate. Some regression is due, and I expect Carpenter to be all over him tonight.

Key stat: Warren ranks in the bottom-15th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

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Best HR predictions

Devers to hit a home run (+440): The San Francisco Giants have needed Devers at his best for their playoff push, and so far, he’s delivered.

San Fran is 12-3 in its last 15 games. In that span, Devers is slashing .333/.424/.684 with six home runs.

And since Aug. 1, he is slashing .283/.373/.583 with 12 home runs.

Tonight, Devers gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Gallen is easily having the worst season of his career, despite logging four straight quality starts. He has posted career lows in ERA (4.77), WHIP (1.28), K/9 (8.3), and HR/9 (1.4).

Lefties are slugging .445 off of Gallen, and Devers is slugging .514 off of righties.

MLB home run picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.