Avery Perri

I’m backing one running back, one wide receiver and one quarterback to score on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Rookie Omarion Hampton had a huge workload for the Los Angeles Chargers in his debut, and he holds value to score against the Las Vegas Raiders. Before that, Nico Collins and Baker Mayfield are my picks when the Houston Texans host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out my top anytime touchdown scorer picks for the Week 2 MNF doubleheader on Sept. 15.

Anytime touchdown scorer picks

Best bet: Hampton to score a TD (-118)

Jim Harbaugh loves to run the football, so when he spent the 22nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft on Hampton, it was clear he was going to use him.

The North Carolina Tar Heels product didn’t have the most efficient NFL debut, turning 17 touches into 61 yards.

But he did log a monster 80% snap count, with backup RB Najee Harris receiving just one carry.

That type of usage has my attention, and it should have yours, too.

Los Angeles’ offence put up 27 points in Week 1 against a Kansas City Chiefs team that just held the Philadelphia Eagles to 20. None of its three TDs came on the ground, but that’s bound to change.

I love the Chargers to cover as 3.5-point road underdogs tonight, and expect fireworks from Hampton.

In his final year of college, Hampton scored 17 touchdowns in 12 games with the Tar Heels.

Ket Stat: Los Angeles had the 10th-highest rushing play percentage in 2024 (44.91%).

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Buccaneers vs. Texans TD picks

Collins to score a TD (+133): Collins was a non-factor in Week 1, logging just three catches for 35 yards.

I’ll plug my nose and throw that result out.

The star wideout was elite when on the field last year, posting some gaudy numbers on a per-game basis (regular season and playoffs):

• 86.4 receiving yards/game
• 8.2 targets/game
• 1+ TD in seven of 14 games

Collins had a 28.3% red zone target share during the regular season, which ranked 11th in the NFL, per Player Profiler.

He also ranked in the top 10 in catches of 30-plus yards, 40-plus yards, and 50-plus yards, despite missing five games with an injury.

Whether it’s a home run play or a goal-line read, C.J. Stroud should be looking Collins’ way.

Mayfield to score a TD (+650): This is worth a flier given how often Mayfield runs the ball.

The Bucs’ quarterback turned five carries into 35 yards in his opener, and logged 378 rushing yards and three scores last season — both career highs.

The Texans gave up the 11th-most rushing yards to QBs last year at 6.66 yards per carry.

Bucky Irving will get the vast majority of red zone looks, but I could see Mayfield breaking loose on a bootleg for a score.

Anytime touchdown scorer picks made at 10:32 a.m. ET on 09/15/2025.

A Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs headlines Sunday’s NFL slate.

The pregame narrative: It’s gut-check time for the Chiefs. Philadelphia squashed Kansas City’s hope of a three-peat last season and is favoured to win at Arrowhead Stadium. This is only the second time in the Patrick Mahomes era that the Chiefs are home underdogs, and they’ll need a win to avoid starting 0-2.

Check out my Eagles vs. Chiefs +300 same-game parlay predictions for Week 2, featuring Hollywood Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Eagles vs. Chiefs SGP predictions

SGP: Chiefs +5.5 | Brown 60+ receiving yards | Smith 50+ receiving yards (+300)

Chiefs +5.5 (-215): I think the Chiefs are live to win this game.

Kansas City was embarrassed in the Super Bowl last year, finding itself down 34-0 with time left in the third quarter. It was, without a doubt, the worst loss of Mahomes’ career.

And after a Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, it seems many are writing the Chiefs off this season.

That seems a little premature to me.

The Chiefs are 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog with Mahomes and 22-5 straight up following a loss.

Kansas City also went a perfect 10-0 at home last season, beating teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.

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More SGP picks

Brown 60+ receiving yards (-114): Brown should have an outsized role in KC’s offence until Rashee Rice returns from his suspension.

That’s especially true if Xavier Worthy (shoulder) doesn’t suit up on Sunday.

Brown was a force in the Chiefs’ season-opening loss, hauling in 10 of his league-high 16 targets for 99 yards.

Is he going to see that type of volume again? Probably not, but even half of that would put him in a solid position to reach this milestone.

The speedster boasts 4.27 speed and was moved all over the field against L.A., logging half of his snaps in the slot and half on the outside.

Smith 50+ receiving yards (-165): The Eagles’ receiving room was a non-factor against the Cowboys last week, catching seven combined passes for 83 yards.

Hurts’ primary receiving target in that matchup was tight end Dallas Goedert (seven catches, 44 yards), but the veteran has missed back-to-back practices with a knee sprain.

Even if Goedert plays, it’s unlikely he’ll be at 100%. And Philly will want to get its receivers involved to offset KC’s stout rush defence.

The Eagles ran the ball 38 times against the Cowboys, who had no answers. Kansas City, meanwhile, held L.A.’s rushing attack to 90 yards at 3.6 yards per carry.

Smith averaged 60.2 receiving yards across 17 regular-season and playoff games last year, reaching this milestone 11 times.

That includes a 69-yard outing against KC in the Super Bowl.

Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

I’m fading one young star receiver and backing another in this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Travis Hunter was heavily targeted in his NFL debut and should receive plenty of looks against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. On the other end, I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to struggle against Jaycee Horn and the Carolina Panthers.

Check out my top Week 2 NFL prop bets, featuring a best bet on Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet.

NFL prop bets: Week 2

Best bet: Charbonnet over 43.5 rushing yards (-110)

It’s early, but Kenneth Walker III fantasy owners should be nervous.

Charbonnet was the more frequently used and productive running back in Seattle’s Week 1 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

• Charbonnet: 12 carries for 47 yards (3.9 YPC), 58% snap count

• Walker: 10 carries for 20 yards (2.0 YPC), 40% snap count

And down the stretch last season, Charbonnet flashed his ceiling.

Excluding a Week 16 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, where he was battling an oblique injury and played in just 22% of snaps, Charbonnet averaged 76 rushing yards per game in his final four games and went 4-0 against this line.

I think he should gash the Pittsburgh Steelers’ suspect run defence on Sunday.

Pittsburgh allowed 182 rushing yards at 4.7 YPC in its Week 1 victory over the New York Jets.

And that’s not just a one-off, considering how poor the Steelers were at stopping the run toward the end of last year.

Key stat: Following its Week 9 bye, the Steelers had the seventh-worst defensive EPA per rush and the fourth-highest rush success rate against, per RBSDM.com.

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Best NFL picks

Hunter over 4.5 receptions (-107): Hunter was a tremendous two-way player in college, earning Heisman honours with the Colorado Buffaloes last year as a receiver and cornerback.

But his NFL debut was heavily skewed toward offence, and that should continue.

Hunter played 42 offensive snaps (64%) and just six defensive snaps (9%) in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers. He caught six of eight targets for 33 yards.

Head coach Liam Coen said there will be a slight uptick in defensive action for Hunter against the Bengals, though we should still expect to see him play a ton in the slot.

• Hunter logged 76% of his offensive snaps in the slot in his debut. That was the fourth-most of any wide receiver, according to FantasyPoints.com.

• He was also targeted on 32.0% of routes run, the fifth-most of any WR.

• The Bengals allowed 10 catches in the slot in Week 1, which was the third-most of any NFL team, per Adam Pfeifer of FTNFantasy.com.

The 2025 No. 2 pick should be heavily involved this week.

Why to fade Harrison Jr.

Harrison under 58.5 receiving yards (-115): I backed Harrison to clear his 55.5 receiving total last week, and that smashed, as the sophomore wideout hauled in five of six targets for 71 yards and a score.

But matchups are everything, and I’m going to flip the script and fade him for two reasons:

• Arizona’s game plan: The Panthers gave up 179.8 rushing yards per game last year, 38.4 more than the next closest team. Carolina allowed 200 rushing yards at 6.3 YPC to the Jaguars in Week 1, so Arizona should look to run the ball plenty.

• Jaycee Horn: Carolina’s top cornerback had Jacksonville on lockdown last week. He allowed just one catch for 11 yards and had a 2.8 passer rating against. Zero Jags receivers cleared this line, and FantasyPoints projects Horn to be Harrison’s primary defender.

Last season, Harrison averaged 52.1 receiving yards per game and went 6-11 against this line.

NFL prop bets made at 10:30 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

A pair of big-name receivers headline this week’s NFL touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: Tee Higgins and the Cincinnati Bengals couldn’t get anything going in Week 1, but they have a get-right matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. Elsewhere, look for Stefon Diggs to score his first touchdown as a New England Patriot.

Check out my top Week 2 NFL TD picks.

NFL TD picks: Week 2

Best bet: Higgins anytime TD (+135)

Cincinnati has been a notoriously slow team out of the gate in the Joe Burrow era and is lucky to be 1-0 right now.

The Bengals generated just seven net offensive yards in the second half against the Cleveland Browns in their opener and still managed to eke out a 17-16 win.

Here’s to hoping they’ve gotten the ugly out of their system, because we all know what Cincinnati’s offence is capable of when it’s on the same page. Check out how it stacked up last year:

• 6th in PPG (27.8)
• 7th in EPA per play (+0.108)
• 9th in YPG (365.5)

Higgins is the Robin to Ja’Marr Chase’s Batman, but he’s arguably the better red zone target of the two. Standing at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, he’s a matchup nightmare for most cornerbacks.

The wideout had 23 red zone targets last season — the third-most in the NFL — and turned that into seven touchdowns. Chase led the league with 33 targets and also had seven touchdowns.

Burrow should get the offence cooking against a Jaguars secondary that got torched last season.

Key stat: Jacksonville allowed the third-most receiving yards to WRs and ranked last in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.

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Best NFL touchdown bets

Diggs anytime TD (+215): Diggs’ best years are behind him, but the four-time Pro Bowler should have an outsized role in New England with Drake Maye under centre.

The veteran wideout hauled in six of seven targets for 57 yards in Week 1 in his first game back from an ACL injury.

Now, he gets to play against a Miami Dolphins squad that was just lit up by Daniel Jones, of all people.

Jones threw for 272 yards in his Indianapolis Colts debut in a 33-8 rout of the Phins. If he can do that, I expect Maye to have a solid game.

The sophomore QB attempted 46 passes in New England’s Week 1 loss.

NFL TD picks made at 8:07 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.