All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers this Sunday, who debuts for the Pittsburgh Steelers against his old team, the New York Jets.
The pregame narrative: Rodgers’ stint in the Meadowlands was an unmitigated disaster. The four-time MVP looks to turn a new leaf with Pittsburgh and has a chance to stick it to New York right off the bat. The Steelers are field-goal favourites in a game with the lowest total (38) on Sunday’s slate.
Check out my Steelers vs. Jets +330 same-game parlay predictions for Week 1, featuring T.J. Watt and Breece Hall.
Steelers vs. Jets SGP predictions
SGP: Steelers moneyline | Watt to record a sack | Hall 20+ receiving yards (+330)
Steelers moneyline (-152): This game should be a slog, and I believe Pittsburgh’s experience and defensive talent will win out.
Mike Tomlin and Rodgers are both Hall-of-Fame-bound, and you can’t say the same about Aaron Glenn and Justin Fields.
I don’t want to discredit the pair. Glenn did great things in Detroit, and Fields flashed his ceiling at points with Pittsburgh last year. But this is a tough landing spot for a rookie head coach and a journeyman quarterback.
In my opinion, Rodgers will simply have to take care of the football and execute and let Pittsburgh’s defence do the rest.
The Steelers are fully healthy on that side of the ball, with Watt leading a dynamic pass rush and Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey revamping the secondary.
Pittsburgh is 4-1 in its last five season openers, beating teams like the Joe Burrow-led Bengals and Josh Allen-led Bills.
Friday night SGP picks
Watt to record a sack (-190): The main reason Pittsburgh’s defence excels year after year is Watt.
He has 58.5 sacks since the start of his 2021 Defensive Player of the Year campaign, equating to just shy of one per game (59 GP).
Fields should have trouble finding his receivers against the Steelers’ secondary, and he loves to use his legs to extend plays. That will lead to some positive scrambles, but will also lead to some sacks.
The Jets ranked 23rd in pass block win rate last year (57%). This is a no-brainer addition for me.
Hall 20+ receiving yards (-110): Finally, let’s look at a Jets prop to nearly double our wager from +125 to +330.
Hall ranked fourth in RB receptions last year, hauling in 57 for 483 yards across 16 games. That 30.2 average is well above what this prop asks.
Pittsburgh’s defence is elite, but that should mean more checkdown opportunities as Fields faces pressure.
Hall caught six of nine passes for 103 receiving yards in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh last season.
Steelers vs. Jets predictions made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 09/06/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.