Category: NBA

Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic will be on the court for a must-see season opener tonight in Dallas.

The pregame narrative: Doncic, the MVP favourite, and Wembanyama, the Defensive Player of the Year favourite, both make for appointment television on their own. In tonight’s San Antonio Spurs vs. Dallas Mavericks matchup, both are expected to put up big numbers.

Check out our Wembanyama and Doncic props for the Oct. 24 game at American Airlines Center.

Wembanyama and Doncic props

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NBA odds as of 10:00 a.m. ET on 10/24/2024.

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Doncic’s Mavericks certainly got the best of Wemby’s Spurs last season, earning a season sweep (4-0) in the all-Texas tussle.

Wemby played in three of those 2023-24 matchups and struggled to put up big numbers:

• Oct. 25: 15 points, five rebounds, two assists
• Feb. 14: 26 points, nine rebounds, five assists
• March 19: 12 points, 11 rebounds, three assists

The 7-foot-4 centre averaged 29.3 PRA against the Mavericks, which was notably below his 35.9 PRA average on the season.

Doncic, meanwhile, played in all four games against the Spurs and found ample success. He averaged 51.3 PRA and posted three triple-doubles.

It’s worth noting that Doncic had his best overall output in the game that Wembanyama sat out. On Dec. 23, Doncic had 39 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists against the Wemby-less Spurs.

Doncic, a five-time reigning All-NBA first team honouree, finished below 30 points in two of three matchups with Wemby on the floor.

Best Wembanyama prop bet

Best bet: Under 4.5 blocks (-148)

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Taking an under isn’t exactly a life-of-the-party move, but it feels practical — even with the extra juice.

Wemby was the blocks champ last year, though he only needed to average 3.6 blocks per game to earn that distinction.

He finished below 4.5 blocks in 47 of 71 games (66.2%).

With the longest wingspan in the league, Wemby can buck this trend on any given night. But the Mavericks don’t present an optimal matchup for him.

Last season, Dallas allowed the second-fewest blocks per game to opposing teams (4.0).

Best Doncic prop bet

Best bet: Over 9.5 assists (-113)

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Doncic has been an elite stat-stuffer from the beginning, but he took a notable leap as a passer last season.

In 2023-24, Doncic averaged a career-high 9.8 assists per game — well ahead of his 8.0 APG from the year before.

It’s funny that that assist uptick coincided with Doncic winning his first NBA scoring title (33.9) … but hey, the guy can do it all.

Last year, Doncic tallied 10-plus assists in 37 of 70 games (52.9%), including three of four against the Spurs.

Tonight’s +264 NBA parlay features a moneyline, an alt total and an alt spread.

The pregame narrative: The Milwaukee Bucks are on the road against a severely shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers team, and I like the visitors to get the job done. I’m also backing the Golden State Warriors on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Check out my NBA parlay picks for Oct. 23.

NBA parlay picks

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Parlay: Bucks moneyline + Magic/Heat under 216.5 points + Warriors -3.5 (+264)

Bucks moneyline (-162): I’ve already shouted out this pick in a +280 Bucks/76ers SGP, but let’s go ahead and double down on it.

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Both sides are missing notable players on Wednesday, but the losses are more significant for Philly. They won’t have Joel Embiid or Paul George on the court.

Last year, the Sixers went 16-27 without Embiid, per StatMuse. And George, a nine-time all-star who had a career-high 3-point percentage last season (41.3%), would help at both ends of the floor.

The Bucks won’t have Khris Middleton, but again, that’s not as notable of a loss. And Milwaukee won both of its matchups without Middleton against the Sixers last season.

Milwaukee is 4-1 in Philadelphia since 2021-22.

Other picks

Magic/Heat under 216.5 points (-265): I bought several points on this line, but the reasoning is simple. This matchup features a pair of teams that frequently hit the under last year — against each other and everybody else.

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Miami had the third-highest unders rate in the NBA (57.3%), per TeamRankings. Orlando wasn’t far behind, ranking seventh with an unders rate of 54.6%.

Against each other, the Heat and Magic went under this total in three of four matchups and averaged 206.0 total points.

It may be recency bias, but the last time we saw these teams they were mucking it up in the first round of the postseason. Orlando went under this total in all seven games against Cleveland, while Miami went under in all five of its games against Boston.

Warriors -3.5 (-159): Golden State is 7-1 against Portland over the past two seasons, covering this number in each of those wins.

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That kind of dominance is something I can get behind. As is the fact that the Warriors enter Game 1 of a new season with zero players on the injury report.

If I was looking to make a straight wager, Warriors -6 is certainly a play I’d consider. Golden State was a stellar 15-7 ATS as a road favourite a season ago (while Portland was just 17-17-1 as a home underdog).

But in a parlay, trimming the number a bit is worth the added security as the Dubs look for a seventh consecutive win in this matchup.

Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 10/23/24.

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A pair of marquee games ring in the new NBA season, and there’s plenty of prop betting potential in both matchups.

The pregame narrative: In the first matchup, I’m fading Mikal Bridges as he makes his New York Knicks debut against the Boston Celtics. Later on, I like both Julius Randle and LeBron James to start strong.

Check out these NBA prop bets for opening night on Oct. 22.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Randle over 31.5 points/rebounds/assists (+102)

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In a new season, and with a new team, there are some pretty significant unknowns for Randle tonight.

How will he fit with a ball-dominant guard like Anthony Edwards? What will his workload look like in his first meaningful action since January?

Let’s take these one at a time, starting with the question of playing alongside a ball-dominant guard like Edwards. The flashy point guard was fourth in the NBA in usage rate last year (31.4%).

But keep in mind that Randle was just on a team led by Jalen Brunson, who was sixth in usage rate a season ago (31.1%). And that worked out just fine.

In the two seasons that Randle and Brunson were teammates for the New York Knicks, Randle averaged 24.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists (38.8 PRA).

Now for the question about Randle’s workload, which is a fair concern. The three-time all-star missed the latter half of the season and all of the postseason last year due to a shoulder injury.

He returned to action for one preseason game, finishing with 15 points, six rebounds and five assists in 26 minutes. That’s an encouraging start for a guy who hasn’t seen NBA competition in months.

Randle was second only to Edwards in minutes for that Oct. 16 game against the Bulls. I expect a standard workload for him tonight and a nice stat line to follow.

Key stat: Randle averaged 38.2 PRA over the past four seasons, with an average of at least 35.1 PRA in each individual season.

Quick picks

LeBron over 1.5 threes (-130): Minnesota was among the best teams at defending the 3-point game last year, which helps explain why this line sits where it is. But the over is still very attainable for the King.

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LeBron is coming off the best 3-point shooting season of his 21-year career. He shot 41.0% from deep last year and notched his sixth consecutive campaign averaging at least 2.0 threes made per game.

In the regular season and playoffs, LeBron cashed this bet in 49 of 76 games (64.5%), including one of two against the Timberwolves.

Bridges under 13.5 points (-108): Spend enough time on NBA Twitter, and you’ll see all sorts of strange narratives.

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But there’s one I’m buying into right now, which is that Bridges’ shot does not look right.

Bridges made three of four shots in the video above, but obviously those were uncontested in an empty gym. During the preseason, he was 2-of-19 from beyond the arc and averaged just 10.8 PPG in four matchups.

I don’t want to put too much stock in preseason action, of course, but this is a new-looking shot for a guy on a new team. He’s coming in cold, and giving me little confidence that things will be different tonight.

Also, Bridges went under 13.5 points in both road matchups against the Celtics last year (as a member of the Nets), shooting 34.8% from the floor.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. on 10/22/2024.