Tonight’s +264 NBA parlay features a moneyline, an alt total and an alt spread.
The pregame narrative: The Milwaukee Bucks are on the road against a severely shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers team, and I like the visitors to get the job done. I’m also backing the Golden State Warriors on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers.
Check out my NBA parlay picks for Oct. 23.
NBA parlay picks
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Parlay: Bucks moneyline + Magic/Heat under 216.5 points + Warriors -3.5 (+264)
Bucks moneyline (-162): I’ve already shouted out this pick in a +280 Bucks/76ers SGP, but let’s go ahead and double down on it.
Both sides are missing notable players on Wednesday, but the losses are more significant for Philly. They won’t have Joel Embiid or Paul George on the court.
Last year, the Sixers went 16-27 without Embiid, per StatMuse. And George, a nine-time all-star who had a career-high 3-point percentage last season (41.3%), would help at both ends of the floor.
The Bucks won’t have Khris Middleton, but again, that’s not as notable of a loss. And Milwaukee won both of its matchups without Middleton against the Sixers last season.
Milwaukee is 4-1 in Philadelphia since 2021-22.
Other picks
Magic/Heat under 216.5 points (-265): I bought several points on this line, but the reasoning is simple. This matchup features a pair of teams that frequently hit the under last year — against each other and everybody else.
Miami had the third-highest unders rate in the NBA (57.3%), per TeamRankings. Orlando wasn’t far behind, ranking seventh with an unders rate of 54.6%.
Against each other, the Heat and Magic went under this total in three of four matchups and averaged 206.0 total points.
It may be recency bias, but the last time we saw these teams they were mucking it up in the first round of the postseason. Orlando went under this total in all seven games against Cleveland, while Miami went under in all five of its games against Boston.
Warriors -3.5 (-159): Golden State is 7-1 against Portland over the past two seasons, covering this number in each of those wins.
That kind of dominance is something I can get behind. As is the fact that the Warriors enter Game 1 of a new season with zero players on the injury report.
If I was looking to make a straight wager, Warriors -6 is certainly a play I’d consider. Golden State was a stellar 15-7 ATS as a road favourite a season ago (while Portland was just 17-17-1 as a home underdog).
But in a parlay, trimming the number a bit is worth the added security as the Dubs look for a seventh consecutive win in this matchup.
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. on 10/23/24.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.