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Best NBA prop bets Dec. 1: Back Wembanyama, Mobley, Brunson on Sunday

Victor Wembanyama headlines Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The second-year centre has been on a scoring binge and draws a nice matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Elsewhere, Evan Mobley and Jalen Brunson should be efficient from their favourite spots on the floor.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Dec. 1.

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 23.5 points (-122)

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Folks were rightfully concerned with Wembanyama’s start to the season but the reigning rookie of the year seems to have figured it out.

First nine games: 17.7 PPG, 41.3% shooting, 3-6 against this line
Last seven games: 30.7 PPG, 52.9% shooting, 6-1 against this line

Wembanyama is coming off an outing where he dropped 20 points on 9-of-20 shooting against the Los Angeles Lakers, snapping a six-game skid of scoring 24-plus. But he didn’t get to the free-throw line in that game and still attempted a healthy 20 shots.

Somehow, the 7-foot-4 phenom doesn’t draw many fouls but this bet is more about his volume and matchup.

The San Antonio Spurs take on a Sacramento Kings team which gets torched at the rim and beyond the arc.

According to Cleaning the Glass, the Kings let opponents shoot 68.2% at the rim (23rd in NBA) and 38.1% from deep (28th in NBA).

Wembanyama takes 30% of his shots at the rim and 47% of his shots from beyond the arc. Would I like to see him less dependent on the 3-point ball? For sure, but in the context of this matchup, heaving up threes is a good thing.

Key stat: The last time Wembanyama played the Kings he dropped 34 points and went 6-of-12 from deep.

Quick picks

Mobley over 16.5 points (-110): Mobley is in the midst of his best scoring season, averaging a career-high 18.2 points per game.

His scoring floor is what has my attention. The power forward has cleared this line in eight of his last 15 games — which isn’t crazy — but he’s had at least 14 points in all but one of those contests.

Night in and night out, Mobley is within a basket of clearing this total. He’s taking the most shots of his career (12.2) and scored 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting the last time he played the Boston Celtics.

Speaking of Boston, its biggest defensive deficiency is letting opponents score at the rim (68.7%, 24th in NBA) and that’s where Mobley does a lot of his work.

Brunson over 2.5 threes (-113): When Brunson gets hot, look out.

The New York Knicks frontman has been buzzing lately, scoring 25-plus points in five of his last eight games. He also netted three-plus 3s in five of those contests and is shooting a respectable 41.0% from deep this year.

Brunson doesn’t attempt a boatload of 3-pointers (6.2/game) but he should be active against a New Orleans Pelicans team which lets opponents shoot 37.4% from deep (sixth-highest mark in the NBA).

Picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 12/01/2024.

Warriors vs. Suns prop picks Nov. 30: Bet on Green, Durant to go over their assist props

For tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, I’m hoping a couple of players are feeling generous.

The pregame narrative: My two best bets for Saturday are assist props for Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Durant is only a few games removed from injury but has fared well against a modest assist line all season.

Check out my Warriors vs. Suns prop picks for Nov. 30.

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Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 assists (-143)

Durant doesn’t get a ton of assists, but he does tend to at least flirt with this number on a nightly basis.

On the season, Durant is averaging 3.2 assists.

After recording zero assists in the Suns’ season opener, Durant has 2+ assists in 10 straight games.

Prior to his injury, Durant had 3+ assists in 5/8 games

A calf strain caused Durant to miss about two weeks of action in November, and he still hasn’t gotten back to a full workload since returning. But perhaps that changes tonight.

Pre-injury, Durant averaged 38.8 minutes. He’s played 30 and 33 minutes, respectively, in two games since returning to the court.

Given how often Durant is within range of this assist total, a handful of extra minutes might make the difference.

And for how low the assist number is that I’m asking for, Durant does his part as a passer. He averages 6.3 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com’s player tracking, which means 6.3 passes that immediately turn into an assist-eligible shot.

Key stat: Durant had 12 assists in three games against the Warriors last season and cashed this prop twice.

Quick pick

Green over 6.5 assists (+100): Based on how Green has played recently, this price looks like a value.

Here’s how things have gone for Green over his past nine games:

7.4 assists per game
12.2 potential assists per game
7+ assists in 7/9 games

From the power forward position, Green is consistently at the centre of the Warriors’ offensive action.

Phoenix is allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing PFs, according to Betting Pros.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET 11/30/2024.

Mavericks vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions Nov. 30: With Doncic doubtful, look for Sexton and Marshall to shine

Tonight’s five-pack of NBA matchups concludes with the Utah Jazz hosting the Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is doubtful for tonight, but I still like the Mavericks to cover an alternate spread. This +280 SGP also includes props for Naji Marshall and Collin Sexton.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 30.

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Parlay: Mavericks -2.5 + Marshall over 14.5 points + Sexton over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (+280)

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Mavericks -2.5 (-235): Dallas lost as an 8-point road favourite when it last faced Utah, but I expect those fortunes to turn tonight.

Since that loss, the Mavericks are 6-1 straight up and ATS. The crazy part is that they’ve played most of those games without Doncic, who is doubtful tonight.

In the past two weeks, the Luka-less Mavericks have won as underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks.

With that in mind, a revenge spot against the woeful Jazz should lead to another victory.

Since its narrow win over Dallas, Utah is 1-6 and each of those losses came by at least four points.

SGP legs

Marshall over 14.5 points (-180): Marshall isn’t a household name, but he’s doing plenty to earn the praise of Mavs fans.

The fifth-year forward has started back-to-back games with Klay Thompson out and will likely slot into the starting lineup again tonight.

Marshall has 15+ points in 7/12 games since Nov. 4.

He’s cashed this bet in five straight games, with 20+ points in each of his past four.

You need to be on the court to score, and Marshall has earned his spot as Dallas deals with some key injuries.

The Jazz have the lowest defensive rating in the league, and Marshall scored 19 points against them on 9-of-14 shooting earlier this month.

Sexton over 22.5 points/rebounds/assists (-205): Overs are 5-0-1 in Dallas’ past six games, so I could see the Jazz putting up some points tonight and making this a bit of a track meet.

With that in mind, the streaking Sexton looks like a viable candidate to have a strong performance. He’s coming off three straight games with 20-plus points, which would already put us in a great spot to cash.

Sexton has cleared this PRA line in nine of his past 12 games, averaging 25.2 PRA in that span.

In two prior matchups against Dallas this season, Sexton finished with 29 and 24 PRA, respectively.

NBA picks made at 12:48 p.m. on 11/30/24.

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Warriors vs. Suns prop picks Nov. 30: Bet on Green, Durant to go over their assist props

For tonight’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns, I’m hoping a couple of players are feeling generous.

The pregame narrative: My two best bets for Saturday are assist props for Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Durant is only a few games removed from injury but has fared well against a modest assist line all season.

Check out my Warriors vs. Suns prop picks for Nov. 30.

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Best Bet: Durant over 2.5 assists (-130)

Durant doesn’t get a ton of assists, but he does tend to at least flirt with this number on a nightly basis.

On the season, Durant is averaging 3.2 assists.

After recording zero assists in the Suns’ season opener, Durant has 2+ assists in 10 straight games.

Prior to his injury, Durant had 3+ assists in 5/8 games

A calf strain caused Durant to miss about two weeks of action in November, and he still hasn’t gotten back to a full workload since returning. But perhaps that changes tonight.

Pre-injury, Durant averaged 38.8 minutes. He’s played 30 and 33 minutes, respectively, in two games since returning to the court.

Given how often Durant is within range of this assist total, a handful of extra minutes might make the difference.

And for how low the assist number is that I’m asking for, Durant does his part as a passer. He averages 6.3 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com’s player tracking, which means 6.3 passes that immediately turn into an assist-eligible shot.

Key stat: Durant had 12 assists in three games against the Warriors last season and cashed this prop twice.

Quick pick

Green over 6.5 assists (+100): Based on how Green has played recently, this price looks like a value.

Here’s how things have gone for Green over his past nine games:

7.4 assists per game
12.2 potential assists per game
7+ assists in 7/9 games

From the power forward position, Green is consistently at the centre of the Warriors’ offensive action.

Phoenix is allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing PFs, according to Betting Pros.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 11/30/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 30: Back Giannis, McCain and Marshall as scorers

I’ve got three scoring props for Saturday’s NBA action, headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The pregame narrative: Giannis has had a week off and now faces a struggling defence at home. That sounds like a smash play to me. Elsewhere, look for Jared McCain and Naji Marshall to fill the net for their respective squads.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 30.

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Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 31.5 points (-120)

I’m starting to wonder if the whispers of a Giannis MVP campaign are too quiet.

As of Saturday morning, Giannis was listed with +800 MVP odds, which is fourth among the league’s cream-of-the-crop hoopers.

If he continues to hold the NBA scoring lead, I’d expect those odds to start shortening.

Giannis is averaging 32.4 points per game, which is both the league-high mark and a career best for the 12th-year big man. It’s also his third season averaging 30-plus points, though, so the scoring isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Load management is in vogue for several of today’s star players, but Giannis isn’t among them. But he should be well-rested for tonight’s game, which only makes me more interested in backing him.

Giannis hasn’t played since last Saturday, when he dropped 32 points in 31 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played once since then (Tuesday at Miami), but Giannis sat out with a left knee injury.

He’s listed as “probable” on Saturday’s NBA injury report with right patella tendinopathy, which suggests the left knee ailment is behind him.

Giannis has gone over 31.5 points in three straight games, as well as seven of his past 12. And tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards is a really good one.

Washington has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA. Also, according to Cleaning The Glass, the Wizards allow the second-highest shooting percentage around the rim (70.5%).

Key stat: Giannis cashed this bet in two of three matchups against the Wizards last year.

Quick picks

Marshall over 16.5 points (-125): I’ll be honest, I didn’t know who Marshall was when this season began. But the undrafted small forward in his fifth NBA season is making the most of an outsized opportunity.

Luka Doncic is doubtful to play for the Dallas Mavericks tonight, while Klay Thompson is slated to miss his third straight game. With some stars on the shelf, Marshall has shown up in a big way.

20+ points in four straight games
Over 16.5 points in 7/13 games since Nov. 4

After a handful of low-involvement performances to start the year, Marshall popped for the first time on Nov. 4 with an extended run against the Pacers. He had 20 points in 34 minutes that night.

From that point on, Marshall has some nice shooting splits — 60.0/35.9/86.7 — on 10.8 shots per game.

The Mavericks are on the road tonight against the Utah Jazz, who have the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

McCain over 20.5 points (-125): Once the Philadelphia 76ers started giving McCain more minutes, the positive returns came in a blink.

Over his first seven NBA games, the 16th overall pick averaged 6.7 PPG in roughly 11 minutes of action.

Since then, he’s averaging 23.4 PPG in about 35 minutes per night.

McCain has cashed this bet in five of his past nine games, landing on exactly 20 points two other times.

The difference has been McCain’s 3-point shooting, as the Duke product has really started to let it fly from deep.

He’s shooting 38.9% from 3-point range over his past 10 games on 9.5 attempts. That really raises his floor as a scorer.

Picks made at 10:18 a.m. ET on 11/30/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 30: Back Giannis, McCain and Marshall as scorers

I’ve got three scoring props for Saturday’s NBA action, headlined by Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The pregame narrative: Giannis has had a week off and now faces a struggling defence at home. That sounds like a smash play to me. Elsewhere, look for Jared McCain and Naji Marshall to fill the net for their respective squads.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 30.

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Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 30.5 points (-130)

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I’m starting to wonder if the whispers of a Giannis MVP campaign are too quiet.

As of Saturday morning, Giannis was listed with +800 MVP odds, which is fourth among the league’s cream-of-the-crop hoopers.

If he continues to hold the NBA scoring lead, I’d expect those odds to start shortening.

Giannis is averaging 32.4 points per game, which is both the league-high mark and a career best for the 12th-year big man. It’s also his third season averaging 30-plus points, though, so the scoring isn’t coming out of nowhere.

Load management is in vogue for several of today’s star players, but Giannis isn’t among them. But he should be well-rested for tonight’s game, which only makes me more interested in backing him.

Giannis hasn’t played since last Saturday, when he dropped 32 points in 31 minutes against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Milwaukee Bucks have played once since then (Tuesday at Miami), but Giannis sat out with a left knee injury.

He’s listed as “probable” on Saturday’s NBA injury report with right patella tendinopathy, which suggests the left knee ailment is behind him.

Giannis has gone over 30.5 points in three straight games, as well as eight of his past 12. And tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards is a really good one.

Washington has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA. Also, according to Cleaning The Glass, the Wizards allow the second-highest shooting percentage around the rim (70.5%).

Key stat: Giannis cashed this bet in all three matchups against the Wizards last year.

Quick picks

Marshall over 16.5 points (-109): I’ll be honest, I didn’t know who Marshall was when this season began. But the undrafted small forward in his fifth NBA season is making the most of an outsized opportunity.

Luka Doncic is doubtful to play for the Dallas Mavericks tonight, while Klay Thompson is slated to miss his third straight game. With some stars on the shelf, Marshall has shown up in a big way.

20+ points in four straight games
Over 16.5 points in 7/13 games since Nov. 4

After a handful of low-involvement performances to start the year, Marshall popped for the first time on Nov. 4 with an extended run against the Pacers. He had 20 points in 34 minutes that night.

From that point on, Marshall has some nice shooting splits — 60.0/35.9/86.7 — on 10.8 shots per game.

The Mavericks are on the road tonight against the Utah Jazz, who have the worst defensive rating in the NBA.

McCain over 20.5 points (-115): Once the Philadelphia 76ers started giving McCain more minutes, the positive returns came in a blink.

Over his first seven NBA games, the 16th overall pick averaged 6.7 PPG in roughly 11 minutes of action.

Since then, he’s averaging 23.4 PPG in about 35 minutes per night.

McCain has cashed this bet in five of his past nine games, landing on exactly 20 points two other times.

The difference has been McCain’s 3-point shooting, as the Duke product has really started to let it fly from deep.

He’s shooting 38.9% from 3-point range over his past 10 games on 9.5 attempts. That really raises his floor as a scorer.

Picks made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 11/30/2024.

Kings vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 29: Back Sabonis, Fade Ayton in +380 ticket

The Sacramento Kings visit a young Portland Trail Blazers team on Friday.

The pregame narrative: With youth comes a hard-nosed style, and that’s exactly how Portland plays. This parlay consists of a teased-up Blazers spread, a Domantas Sabonis prop and a fade of Deandre Ayton’s point total.

Check out my Kings vs. Trail Blazers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 29.

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Parlay: Sabonis over 19.5 points + Ayton under 16.5 points + Trail Blazers +10.5 (380)

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Sabonis over 19.5 points (-143): Sabonis often takes a back seat in the Kings’ offence, but that hasn’t been the case lately.

Over the last 11 games, Sabonis is 9-2 against this line. He’s averaging 20.6 points per game in that time on 61.2% shooting.

The other good news for this bet is that DeMar DeRozan has already been announced out for tonight’s contest.

In his two most recent games without DeRozan, Sabonis scored 23 and 24 points, clearing this line with relaitve ease.

Back in his first meeting with Portland this season, Sabonis scored 16 points but only took eight shots, making five of them.

There’s no doubt in my mind that the big man will take more shots tonight with DeRozan sidelined.

SGP legs

Ayton under 16.5 points (-175): This line is too high for Ayton for a couple of reasons.

The Kings allow the third-fewest points per game to opposing centres (19.1).

Ayton averages 13.5 points per game.

In fact, he’s gone under this mark in three straight and in eight of 12 games this season.

Ayton did go off for 20 against the Kings in their first meeting, but I’m selling high on him and trusting the season-long results that indicate this as a bad matchup.

Trail Blazers +10.5 (-186): To close this SGP out, let’s tease up Portland’s spread.

The Blazers are a top team against the spread (11-7-1) and even better at home (5-3).

Overall, Portland is 11-8 against this line and six of those blowout losses came on the road.

Sacramento came into the season with lofty expectations but it has been underwhelming up to this point.

The Kings have a record of 9-10 and are 7-11-1 ATS. They have only covered this spread in two away games.

Sacramento is 1-4 in its last five and I have no confidence in this team blowing out anybody right now — including the feisty Trail Blazers.

Picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 11/29/24.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 29: Back Isaiah Hartenstein and Anthony Edwards on Friday night

The NBA is serving up all-day basketball action for Black Friday’s 10-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I have three plays for the occasion, betting on Jalen Suggs, Isaiah Hartenstein and Anthony Edwards to produce.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 29.

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Best bet: Suggs over 15.5 points (-130)

The Orlando Magic point guard gets a juicy matchup coming off a career-best performance.

Suggs lit up the Chicago Bulls for 31 points on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive, non-injury-related game that he has cleared this mark.

A hamstring issue limited Suggs to nine minutes the game before that after he had back-to-back contests scoring 16 and 23 points.

Paolo Banchero remains out for Orlando, meaning Suggs will stay a bigger piece of the offence.

He has a great opportunity tonight to continue his increased scoring production (he’s averaging a career-high 15.6 PPG).

The Brooklyn Nets have struggled to contain PGs, allowing the fourth-most points to the position (per Betting Pros).

They’re 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage and Suggs is shooting and making more from long range than ever before (2.2 threes on 6.9 attempts).

He’s also shooting a career-best 93.1% from the line. While Suggs doesn’t get to the stripe often, he’s been near-automatic and a few trips could be the difference in helping him clear this modest line.

Key stat: Suggs has topped this number in over half of his games.

Quick picks

Hartenstein over 22.5 points/rebounds (-118): The Oklahoma City centre has been on fire since making his season and Thunder debut.

Hartenstein missed the first month recovering from a hand fracture but has double-doubled in all three games since returning, averaging 30.3 minutes for the worst-rebounding team in the NBA.

Nov. 27 vs. Warriors: 14 pts, 14 reb
Nov. 25 vs. Kings: 19 pts, 10 reb
Nov. 20 vs. Blazers: 13 pts, 14 reb

The undersized Thunder desperately needed the 7-footer’s size and rebounding prowess down low and he’s delivered on that.

Centres have performed well against the Los Angeles Lakers and Hartenstein seems to have found a new gear in an expanded role after two years with the New York Knicks.

Edwards over 26.5 points (-130): Let’s get this out of the way right away: No team allows fewer points to shooting guards than the Los Angeles Clippers, Edwards’ opponent tonight.

The Clippers have the second-best perimeter defence in the NBA and are fifth in the league in defensive rating.

This is by all accounts a difficult matchup for Edwards and his underperforming Minnesota Timberwolves.

That said, Edwards is an elite scorer who’s shooting more than all but three players.

Averaging 28.1 PPG (career high)
Topped this line in 3 straight
24-plus points in 8 straight
Leads NBA in 3PM/game (4.7)

Edwards has taken at least nine shots from deep and 20-plus shots from the field in six of his last seven.

The volume should at the very least be there tonight. As long as that’s the case, he’s going to get his whether he does it efficiently or not.

Edwards has topped this number in 11 of 18 games.

Picks made at 1:26 p.m. ET on 11/29/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 29: Back Isaiah Hartenstein and Anthony Edwards on Friday night

The NBA is serving up all-day basketball action for Black Friday’s 10-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I have three plays for the occasion, betting on Jalen Suggs, Isaiah Hartenstein and Anthony Edwards to produce.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 29.

NBA prop bets

Go to full NBA betting markets

Best bet: Suggs over 15.5 points (-124)

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